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18 Sep 12 15:18
Date Joined: 03 Apr 12
| Topic/replies: 21 | Blogger: asasas4's blog
anyone read anywhere abouts cue cards plans for the year?think he could have a good season.cheers
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Report buddeliea October 21, 2013 5:07 PM BST
Yep,good post and very interesting points there Judo.
I think you are about right with the rating for Cue Card,and if proves he stays this season he has to be a major player in the Gold Cup,and 25s(what I got) will be long gone!!
This is without doubt his defining season,probably his next 2 runs will tell us what distances he is campaigned at for the rest of his career.
Should he not stay,he will be bl00dy hard to beat over 2 and a halfm sort of distances,thats for sure.

Report Makybe_Diva October 21, 2013 6:49 PM BST
Interesting post, Rick, thanks Happy
Report wellchief October 21, 2013 8:55 PM BST
Top class animal.

Should stay over 2.5 miles for me.  They have a winning formula with him, and easily has the beating over anything else over Ryanair trip, and probably only Simonsig would give him a race out of last year's novices (plus Al Ferof if he stays over 2.5).

I can kind of understand the idea behind the King George as a top mid season target, but I didn't take any enjoyment whatsoever watching last years bunch of none stayers in that, and I classed him as one of them (along with Champion Court, Riverside Theatre, Master Minded before he got injured etc).

Has to be Ryanair for me, and then step up to 3m in the Bowl at Aintree when he'll get some nice spring ground.
Report buddeliea October 22, 2013 7:54 AM BST
The ground done him Chief,that plus him totally unsettled for the first few furlongs.
Decent ground and a proper ride will see him have a chance of proving he stays.
Deserves another chance for sure.
Report judorick October 22, 2013 3:44 PM BST
I am convinced there is plenty more to come this season and the first opportunity to assess him will come in the Haldon Gold Cup which is usually on a Tuesday so ought to be Nov 5th but I haven't checked

CC won that race in 2012 by 26 lengths off a mark of 157 and was awarded an RPR of 170.

This year he will be racing off 172 and if he wins the race will automatically achieve an RPR in excess of 170. Cue Card went on to run RPR 176 at Cheltenham and 178 at Aintree meaning he improved 8lbs from first to last run. I see no reason why he should not continue that progress and be capable of RPRs in the low to mid 180s
Report duffy October 23, 2013 12:00 AM BST
Cue Card did smash up FL in the ryanair, but direct comparisons of the weights and measures involving differing distances is a grey area isn't it, for instance, to get an accurate gauge on the correlation between CC and FL, it would be helpful if we could see a race between them over 3 miles, the thrashing that CC handed out to FL was arguably over a far more suitable distance for him than FL, so to use that line of form solely to promote CC higher, is open for debate.

CC's legacy if that's not too melodramatic is going to be based on whether he can get 3 miles and further with regards to the gold cup.His rating has been gleaned from performances over trips shorter than 3 miles and again it can be argued that the opposition in those races are significantly inferior to the ratings gained from the 3 mile brigade and the opposition there ,with FL in the ryainair, the distance may have handicapped him and therefore that correlation may be skewed, I think that's what may be getting him marked down a bit.
Report judorick October 23, 2013 12:03 AM BST
didn't use that single piece solely if you read my piece, there's the BW and SS form too

like to see BW try and give CC 8lbs
Report duffy October 23, 2013 12:10 AM BST
over what distance though, if it was over 2.4,then I'd agree CC would be fav. if it was over 3+ then it's the other way round, that's my point, ideally there should be different ratings for different distances, (impossible I know) because the horses have different abilities over different distances, same as ground etc.
Report judorick October 23, 2013 12:18 AM BST
I understand the issue, I just want to get an accurate assessment and based on what I know he is under rated on 172

RPR rated him 176 for the Ryan Air and 178 for the Melling Chase which ties in with my thoughts

The BHA's 172 suggests that Sprinter Sacre could give him 16lbs and still beat him and I don't think that very likely at all. 10 pounds maybe which again means 178 for CC given SS is 188

Equally I'd like to see BW try to give him 8lbs
Report buddeliea October 23, 2013 7:17 AM BST
Distance is crucial Judo,and whilst I think you make fair points in thinking CC is underated,horses like FL and in particular Bobsworth are better over further.Bobsworth much much better.
It is all about CC staying and until he does comparing them for ratings is not gonna be accurate.
Report wellchief October 23, 2013 8:35 AM BST
Just a hunch, but I cant ever see CC fully getting 3m plus in a top quality chase, especially if the word good is not in the going description somewhere.

He may get in slightly lesser races like a Bowl, Argento, Charlie Hall; but imo would not last it out against the very best in a King George or Gold Cup.

I see him as a speedy 2.5 miler, rather than a staying 2.5 miler.

I'm sure we'll find out soon enough though
Report judorick October 28, 2013 11:19 AM GMT
we will find out because they have said the plan is Haldon - Betfair - King George

They did say Ascot - Ryan Air after Xmas but that plan will surely depend on Haydock/Kempton performances
Report judorick November 1, 2013 12:15 PM GMT
TIMEFORM are on the warpath over Cue Card – and Colin Tizzard will be delighted.
The revered Halifax authors argue in their just-published Chasers & Hurdlers 2012/13 that the Ryanair hero from Milborne Port has been dealt an injustice by the BHA and Irish Turf Club handicappers in the end-of-season Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification.
In the essay devoted to the seven-year-old Timeform say: "Nothing is more contentious than the treatment of Cue Card. . . . make no mistake the dependable Cue Card has been slighted by the Anglo-Irish Classifications. He is a better horse than the official handicappers are giving him credit for."
Although the official list has Cue Card (172) behind Silviniaco Conti and Ireland's Sir Des Champs (both 173) and only 2lb ahead of horses such as First Lieutenant, Chasers & Hurdlers rate him superior to all three – 9lb in fact ahead of First Lieutenant who, as the annual points out, he beat by nine lengths at Cheltenham in March.
Report judorick November 2, 2013 11:00 AM GMT
been having a look at the Haldon Gold Cup this morning and have to say, if they all turn up, it looks a massively difficult task for Cue Card. Both Fago and Williams Wishes appear serious contenders so it will be interesting to see how they get on

I remember dear old Twist Magic just failing by half a length off 173, giving 20lbs to Tchico Polos, a couple of years ago so there's no doubt Cue Card can do it but let's be clear it will not be easy
Report judorick November 4, 2013 12:03 PM GMT
Very stiff task for Cue Card tomorrow at Exeter

Somersby may be long in the tooth really but he was only 8 lengths behind in the Ascot Chase and now gets a whopping 17lbs Surprised

Then you have Module (French bred like 7 of the last 10 winners), Williams Wishes and Fago all getting 20lbs

Could well be the case that having a jog round, and coming home without being knocked about, might better than busting a gut to win this race on seasonal debut. Fascinating to see what happens
Report duffy November 4, 2013 1:18 PM GMT
He goes well fresh and likes this place,if he is indeed a 178 horse, he's well in isn't he and should be winning.
Report judorick November 4, 2013 1:30 PM GMT
well if one of the others is a 170 horse running off 152 he's got no chance
Report Makybe_Diva November 4, 2013 5:40 PM GMT
Is it still £5 minimum bet on here to be able to watch a live race?
Report judorick November 4, 2013 6:21 PM GMT
yes Sue
Report Makybe_Diva November 4, 2013 6:36 PM GMT
Thanks, Rick.
Report Howdi November 4, 2013 8:12 PM GMT
I like Cue but this beginning to look like of the month for me at them odds
Report Howdi November 4, 2013 8:12 PM GMT
^^^ look like the lay of the month.
Report judorick November 4, 2013 8:34 PM GMT
yes very skinny
Report Howdi November 4, 2013 8:54 PM GMT
Couldn't bring myself to back 5-4 when its out of his hands if something is hiding on a mark
Report judorick November 4, 2013 9:04 PM GMT
could easily be the case, Module only had 4 starts could have any amount of improvement to come off 152
Report judorick November 4, 2013 9:05 PM GMT
for example
Report Makybe_Diva November 5, 2013 12:38 PM GMT
I'm starting to feel nervous.

I'm going to find something to do as a distraction until 2.50.
Report Makybe_Diva November 5, 2013 2:22 PM GMT
Am I the only one sitting here feeling stressed?

Thinking I needn't have splashed out on a bet as I'm not sure I want to watch it live Scared

Come back safe and sound Cue Card, and all the others of course.

I've had my bet on Module e/w.
Report Graeme83 November 5, 2013 2:30 PM GMT
I think he will hammer them.
Report shockster November 5, 2013 2:37 PM GMT
I've not had a big bet but put Cue Card in a Yankee.  Others MIGHT be good enough, but we know CC is a top notcher.  I'd be most worried about Somersby if he were anywhere near to top form.  Good to see the top horses win or lose.  Would have been interesting to see Sprinter trying to give CC 16lbs here.  Not sure who I'de of backed?
Report Makybe_Diva November 5, 2013 2:50 PM GMT
Aww, just had my first sight of him Love
Report Makybe_Diva November 5, 2013 2:51 PM GMT
Somersby, too Love
Report Makybe_Diva November 5, 2013 2:52 PM GMT
Module is looking very perky Happy
Report Makybe_Diva November 5, 2013 2:54 PM GMT
Feeling soooo nervous. Come on Cue Card!
Report buddeliea November 6, 2013 12:32 PM GMT
Not surprised he failed to give all that weight away to the front 2, but was surprised by his jumping at times, not as good as normal I thought. Was also a tad surprised he ran in the race to be honest, looked to be up against it at the weights, and the distance far short of what they hope him to be running at this season, although I guess if they just wanted to get a run into him before the Betfair then at least that was achieved.
Hope he makes the Betfair chase, looking at the entries we will know a lot more after that race!!
Report judorick November 6, 2013 1:25 PM GMT
I've been working on the ratings for the race and have got to something I am fairly happy with:

Somersby 162
Module 159
Cue Card 173
Kumbeshwar 152
Williams Wishes 147

It's only a first stab at it mind
Report cyclops November 6, 2013 3:18 PM GMT
I think marking Cue Card as having run to within 5lb of his best ever RP rating overestimates what he achieved. To me, a pipe opener for him, where he lost quite a bit of ground through poor jumping. Downgrade your ratings I would say. Not sure a pushed along Kumbeshwar really merits 152 either.
Report judorick November 6, 2013 3:55 PM GMT
seeing Somersby has peak RPR of 169 and has plenty of runs at 165 and was reported as looking fit and well pre race + the jockey said he performed well I think 162 is more than fair for him

when you consider Module has been 2 horses, including the previously unbeaten over fences WW, 7 and 10 lengths at levels that were rated 148 and 152 I don't think 159 flatters him at all considering that was only his 5th run over fences. I will confidently predict he will make a 165 horse this season at 20 furlongs

There is every chance 173 underestimates Cue Cards performance especially at a trip short of his best and he slithered at the 4th fence and was reported as having lost his confidence by the jockey. Don't forget he was giving 20 pounds to Module and that could look an impossible task by the end of this season

the ratings are only a first stab and I will be revising them as more data becomes available but I will not be rating it lower than 172 because Somersby was 161 in the Ascot Chase and that is the minimum rating I am prepared to give him.
Report judorick November 6, 2013 3:57 PM GMT
*been = beaten
Report buddeliea November 6, 2013 4:57 PM GMT
Not the most accurate way of rating horses on their 1st race of the season-fitness etc,and not sure Somersby is as good as he was at Ascot.Time will tell as always.
Report Makybe_Diva November 6, 2013 7:51 PM GMT
Just read that Cue Card was absolutely fine this morning. That's good to know Happy
Report judorick November 7, 2013 6:26 PM GMT
RPR gave Cue Card 172 for Tuesday and 158 for Module
Report judorick November 23, 2013 3:08 PM GMT

Report duffy November 23, 2013 3:10 PM GMT
Have to give you credit there judo....well played with him.
Report Howdi November 23, 2013 3:21 PM GMT
stick sacre in gold cup and take legendary status
Report judorick November 23, 2013 3:30 PM GMT
I agree Sprinter would win the Gold Cup and if I owned him I would instruct the trainer to prepare him for that
Report resner not lesnar November 23, 2013 3:30 PM GMT
That really was a wow performance. If he stays sound I think he wins the Gold Cup, I know the extra furlong and the hill are a further test but he didn't seem to be stopping
Report Ming_the_Merciless November 23, 2013 3:51 PM GMT
Sprinter Sacre in the Gold Cup?....... would he then go on to the Grand National straight from there or wait for next season Whoops
Report judorick November 23, 2013 4:04 PM GMT
If my assessment is accurate (i.e should already be rated 177+) and he makes the 5 to 8lbs of improvement I think he is capable of achieving, then the sky is the limit. I'm on 25s and 33s nrfb for the Gold Cup and if he gets out in front, on good ground, that could look a massive price. What price would he be in Tizzard announced it was his definite intention to run in the Gold Cup?

best priced 10/1  Love
Report Glossy November 23, 2013 4:07 PM GMT
Did you back it Judo? Didn't see you tip it up so assumed you didn't fancy it?
Report judorick November 23, 2013 4:10 PM GMT
see the Ante Post thread but I've only been on about it for weeks, wrote a piece on here saying he's under rated

what more do you want?
Report Ming_the_Merciless November 23, 2013 4:14 PM GMT
Boy, it would be tough to win a Gold Cup from the front like he did today... I think the one to take from the race was Dynaste but there is a heck of a long way to go yet.

If you got on at 25s+ on Cue Card bravo to you, esp NRFB.

I got 36's Dynaste and 83's Harry TopperHappy
Report Glossy November 23, 2013 4:22 PM GMT
Wasnt having a go judo, I very much respect your opinions and enjoy your posts. Just wondered if you'd backed it. I don't venture onto the Ante-post forum very often. Fair play to you if you did, I know you're a big fan of the horse.
Report festivalfanatic November 23, 2013 5:11 PM GMT
I think this is a good as Cue Card has been. Kept on thinking he would stop!

The record might have stuck but the horses that finished in the frame in the 2011 Supreme and 2012 Arkle appear to be exceptional.
Report judorick November 23, 2013 5:29 PM GMT
watch the replay and see how many times JT hits with the whip Love
Report call it a day November 23, 2013 6:36 PM GMT
Loads more to come Judo. What a day!! Good luck with your Gold Cup bets. You must feel totally vindicated by posts throughout the year.
Report judorick November 23, 2013 6:50 PM GMT
vindicated is not really how I feel

I'm pleased the horse has shown what the ratings showed he was capable of doing, and that gives me confidence that what I'm doing is valid

I was absolutely certain Sprinter Sacre would turn out to be exceptional after his third start and he has fulfilled that prediction

and Cue Card has confirmed the strength of the form today. Really pleased for the yard, the connections and the horse

really hope he wins the Gold Cup for them, don't think I will need to be pointing out his chances in future now
Report spothediference November 24, 2013 2:34 AM GMT
great work top marks.
Report buddeliea November 24, 2013 9:01 AM GMT
Great performance to be up there all the way and go away on the run in,could not get better than that.
I was always sceptical about him getting 3 miles,but the last 2 years I HAVE backed him nrfb for the Gold Cup at 25/1,failed last year but this year I have been rewarded with what now looks rather a value bet.
I knew his King George defeat had enough evidence to give him another chance,not settling,smashing a fence early on and the ground being really soft.

Cheltenham in March will be a totally different race of course,longer and not a flat track,but Cue Card loves Cheltenham and has now proved he stays,and to my eyes stays well.

Hats off to you Judo,the horse has done you proud on here,or should that be the other way round??Laugh
Report judorick November 24, 2013 11:48 AM GMT
cheers budd, glad you took 25s - cracking position no matter what

it only took a little imagination not a great insight so I'm not claiming anything special, you said yourself a year ago on this thread 'he's probably the second best chaser in training' and the form was all there to see, he just had to learn to settle and sometimes that takes time(he is only 7 years old and has had only 12 chase starts)

I said way back on this thread he reminded me of other previous Gold Cup winners and it's even more striking now:

Best Mate won Haldon Gold Cup off identical handicap mark by 20 lengths first start of 2nd season - Gold Cup winner

Kicking King second in the Arkle behind a top 2 miler (Well Chief) - Gold Cup winner 2 years later


Imperial Commander ran in the King George finished 6th and well beaten,won Ryan Air next start, ran Kauto Star to a nose in the Betfair then won the Gold Cup

I had spotted these similarities and just the form, ratings and profile together and concluded 'top class staying chaser, when he learns to settle' and if you listened to Colin Tizzard yesterday that's exactly what he said

I have no doubt he is going to be extremely hard to beat in the Gold Cup as long as he jumps well because he has more pace than anything else,gets the trip and loves Cheltenham
Report brandyontherocks November 24, 2013 4:37 PM GMT
Kicking King won the Gold Cup as a 2nd season chaser. Don't mean to pick hairs.
Other similarities spot on tho
Report Makybe_Diva November 24, 2013 4:41 PM GMT
Hi Rick,

Wasn't Cue Card fantastic?!

My main thought when watching the race was for all those lovely horses to come back safe and sound.

I never dared hope for such a perfect result. But that's what we got Grin

I didn't watch it till later last night.

I went to bed very happy dreaming of Cue Card Love

I thought of you when I was watching the race Happy
Report judorick November 24, 2013 5:15 PM GMT
Hi Sue GrinLove

aww yes, what a race and what a performance! Only watched it about 20 times back to back haha

Been a whole year since I had the Eureka moment, you know the bubble from the unconscious mind that pops up that I told you about, which told me Cue Card was going to be a truly tremendous staying chaser in time and now he's gone ahead and done it. Most satisfying! As I said on my earlier post about him (where I discuss how under rated he has been) a couple of pages ago..

the sky is the limit! LaughLove
Report buddeliea November 24, 2013 5:59 PM GMT
yep,im pretty sure hes the 2nd best chaser now Judo.

Dynaste and Al Ferof could challenge him but have to improve,and I do think they are both well capable of doing that.
Exciting times ahead with the new brigade imo.
Report judorick November 24, 2013 11:57 PM GMT
There are still people knocking the performance, saying Bobs Worth didn't run his race and so on. Guess they will never be convinced no matter what. Oh well, the horse will either continue winning races of he won't. Probably means you will always get a decent price though
Report buddeliea November 25, 2013 8:01 AM GMT
Well really it was always about him proving he stayed,and until this weekend their were doubts,we all knew that,some doubted more than others but until a horse actually does it their is doubt.Especially with a horse that's shown top form at the lesser distances.

Now how good is he in relation to the other top chasers? I will use the best one from last season the Gold Cup Winner.
People are making excuses for Bobsworth,and I have no problem with that,never do with a horse having his 1st run,and horses are always for me allowed to have a poor run now and again.
But for me, I just happen to think Cue Card is simply a better horse, and if you look back at the race when Bob just beat Cue Card you will see CC winning by 7L(around that anyway) if level weights.Yes,that was over Cue Cards distance,but now that Cue Card has shown conclusively he stays 3m1f- and that from the front not stopping,i really struggle to see Bob ever beating him...anywhere.
He simply is not as good and cannot go the pace,he even got outpaced a tad in the Gold Cup!!And Cue Card is a darn sight faster than last years GC horses that were up in the van.
For Bob to beat CC in the Gold Cup, it would have to be soft ground at least,then its possible I think.
On normal festival ground Cue Card imo would be too far in front before Bob got his stamina going,and then Cue Card would have to seriously hit the brick wall.
Going on that I saw Saturday I really don't see that happening.

All in all if last years winner cant beat him, none of the ones he beat can either,and that includes Sir Des Champs who was legless at the end of that race.
So for me currently Cue Card should be fav,and the major threats will be Dynaste, Al Ferof and maybe Boston Bob,who are all improving still...mind you we may not have seen the best of Cue Card either!!!
Report judorick November 25, 2013 11:24 AM GMT
Cue Card given RPR 180 for the Betfair, plenty more to come
Report judorick November 25, 2013 11:30 AM GMT
great points made Budd
Report CheltenhamRoar November 25, 2013 11:32 AM GMT
i think you'd wanna see him back that performance up before getting excited about him winning a gold cup imo.
is his king george run (which was abysmal) suddenly just been forgotten about?
He's clearly a top class horse but needs to back that performance up over 3 miles to be considered a GC horse.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2013 11:44 AM GMT
I would be worried of Cue Card winning the CGC as front runners can't win CGC's! Though i would not put any one off backing him or putting him in your books. I certainly will be but he aint a shoe in same way Kauto, Denman, Best Mate were imo
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2013 11:50 AM GMT
The Betfair chase IS 3 miles 1f is it not? Did CC not demolish the first and plough through the 2nd in last years King George on very heavy ground? I think those factors must be remembered when assessing his chances in this years race and therefore it will take a very good one to beat him!
Any theories that the betfair was less than 3 miles 1 furlong is ridiculous! Yes they used a different track than normal!
Report judorick November 25, 2013 12:11 PM GMT
CheltenhamRoar 25 Nov 13 11:32 Joined: 26 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 2,298 | Blogger: CheltenhamRoar's blog
i think you'd wanna see him back that performance up before getting excited about him winning a gold cup imo.
is his king george run (which was abysmal) suddenly just been forgotten about?
He's clearly a top class horse but needs to back that performance up over 3 miles to be considered a GC horse.

I said straight after the race that the whole performance should be written off and not used to form any conclusion about the horse, there was no 'suddenly forgotten' for me, it was instant. I think if you look back on this and other threads I have made the point many times.

Cue Card was lit up like a Christmas tree from the moment the tapes went up and he was beaten after 2 fences. He continued to pull hard all the way until entering the final straight and no horse would have got home after that. I wrote it off instantly.

Others chose to take the performance literally and assume that was a true reflection of whether he would stay which for me was never logical. Only his second start outside novice company, heavy nearly unraceable going, pulled hard.

So, you still don't consider him a gold cup horse I take it?
Report Makybe_Diva November 25, 2013 12:27 PM GMT
"Been a whole year since I had the Eureka moment, you know the bubble from the unconscious mind that pops up that I told you about, which told me Cue Card was going to be a truly tremendous staying chaser in time and now he's gone ahead and done it."


I have just read through this entire thread. It makes for very interesting reading.

Perhaps I should get out more Blush
Report marychain1 November 25, 2013 2:57 PM GMT
I thought Cue Card would be a solid Gold Cup prospect as well, and have taken the 25/1 nrfb, my only Festival bet so far. I backed him in his Ryanair, backed him in his Arkle (remember that was the first time Paddy did their groundbreaking money back offer on Sprinter Sacre) and I reckon I was one of the very few that also backed him in the Bumper. In fact, it was the 40/1 I got on him that day that started my love affair with the horse. I wasn't able to watch the race on Saturday and actually backed Bob's Worth. Having watched it a few times now there are certain things that stand out. Cue Card gets into such a good rhythm at his fences that he is able to take them at speed and while others slow down in the jump stride, so Cue Card is able to make up ground at every fence. But the most obvious thing watching Cue Card is that he absolutely loves it. The way he runs carrying his head held high he knows he is a total star, and the way he kept on finding more as Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste came at him shows his class and heart.

He is favourite for the Gold Cup in my eyes now. I respect Sir Des Champs, especially on better going than last year, and think Bob's Worth will have a hell of a lot more to give than he showed on Saturday, but Cue Card has everything you could want in a Gold Cup winner. There is no box unticked now, and I'm tempted to go back in again before the King George.
Report marychain1 November 25, 2013 3:17 PM GMT
Two more things - the horse looks like it will definitely stay further, another positive for the Gold Cup. Tizzard hardly moved on the horse, so there's every chance he'll come out of the race well. And, look at Tom Scu's reaction on Dynaste after they pass the line, even he leans over and gives Cue Card a pat as if to say "wow that's some horse there!"
Report judorick November 25, 2013 3:43 PM GMT
I've been explaining to my little gang of followers this morning how i came to the conclusion that Cue Card was going to be a superstar staying chaser and that was not until after he won the Haldon Gold Cup 2012. In fact, I had never backed Cue Card until that point and had a very similar attitude towards him as many others. Nice horse probably not top class etc. But that all changed...

A big component of that conclusion was his collateral form with Sprinter Sacre from the Arkle. Many will no doubt remember me saying after the Game Spirit Chase that I was totally adamant that Sprinter was a monster about to happen. I rated that effort at 'at least 175' and I said he had upwards of a stone in hand in the Arkle etc. That all proved to be correct, he smashed Cue Card 7 lengths without hardly coming off the bridle. I hardly paid attention to what Cue Card did at the time...

But then Cue Card comes out and wins the Haldon Gold Cup by 26 lengths and they announce the target is the King George. I then started the analysis of all the winners and other top class horses that ran in the King George looking for a bet. Then just one day when I'd been thinking hard for a good few days this idea just popped up. Bingo! I remember the strength of the Arkle form, then see the similarities to Best Mate and Kicking King... put it all together and my conclusion was:

Cue Card is the next top staying chaser along the lines of Best Mate, Kicking King, See More Business, Imperial Commander and Kauto Star

I invite you all to look up all their lifetime careers and compare them with Cue Card and draw your own conclusion.

Anyway, unfortunately, the King George all went wrong from the very start and many people were completely unable to disregard that run and look more at the profile over all. I really think that run was a red herring. Tizzard said that in a way that race may have helped him become a racehorse and if you look at all the races he has run after the King George you can see it is an almost seamless story of improvement: 3 Grade 1 wins and a second to the best chaser in training, pulling 20+ lengths clear of the third, a win at 3 miles plus and a lifetime high RPR of 180

I can only continue to assume that progression continues as he reaches full maturity and I will not be surprised if he reaches RPRs in the mid 180s this season

8/1 is still massive for the Gold Cup (unless Sprinter suddenly turned up)
Report FOYLESWAR November 25, 2013 4:26 PM GMT
judo look on the ante post thread  king george 2013 bumped it , 18 months too early unfortunatly ,
Report judorick November 25, 2013 5:23 PM GMT
Foyles, you knew! Blimey I had totally forgotten that thread, some really good debate and analysis
Report brandyontherocks November 25, 2013 10:17 PM GMT
Judo, what similarities did you see with Best Mate and Kicking King regarding Cue Card with THEIR Arkle runs?
Report judorick November 25, 2013 10:42 PM GMT
What are you insinuating?

Best Mate never ran in the Arkle and I never said he did (festival cancelled)

Kicking King was second to Well Chief who went on to be a top class 2 miler, Cue Card was second to Sprinter Sacre who is the top chaser in training

Kicking King went on to win the King George and Gold Cup

The similarity I noticed was not in the run but the career patterns (ages, races run in, type of opposition etc)

The horse he is most similar to now is Imperial Commander, beaten in a King George (6th, well beaten) then won the Ryan Air, went very close to winning the Betfair (touched off by Kauto), won the Gold Cup the year after winning the Ryan Air

Not hard to draw comparisons after the events have taken place, but I was doing this after Cue Card had just won his first race outside novice company and postulating that the horse was going to become a superstar staying chaser based on the form with Sprinter Sacre and others combined with looking how other top notch staying chasers careers went at the same stage

Foyles had the idea 6 months at least earlier than me on his King George 2012 thread
Report brandyontherocks November 25, 2013 11:06 PM GMT
I know you've shouted Cue Card's potential for at least a year so I'm not knocking you.
I backed him for last years George and Gold Cup ( its on Foyles thread so I'm not after timing) but sadly didnt this year.

I always back 2nd season chasers for the Gold Cup so not gone in this year. You do get a few 3rd, 4th season winners but over 20 years you will get the majority of winners.

Still don't agree with your comparisons but not going to argue over something so petty.

Nice AntePost vouchers for you tho, good luck.
Report judorick November 25, 2013 11:24 PM GMT
the comparisons weren't important, the conclusion I arrived at were

how you can't see what are virtually identical traits I don't know, the point was not to find horses with identical paths but rather to look for the traits, characteristics and campaigning of horses who ended up being superstar staying chasers

and Cue Card's career has remarkable similarity to several

for example, Best Mate was beaten favourite in the Supreme Novices hurdle, so was Cue Card and they won the same race off exactly the same mark on their first chase in the second season, winning by 20 and 26 lengths

if you can't see that is similar then I dunno what you would consider 'similar' Laugh

Which second season chaser have you backed for the Gold Cup then?
Report judorick November 25, 2013 11:37 PM GMT
FYI I just checked, 19 of the last 30 Gold Cup winners were not second season chasers so no, in the long run it has not paid to be dogmatic and stick to them
Report brandyontherocks November 25, 2013 11:43 PM GMT
In his younger days Cue Card was very head strong so he was obviously campaigned at shorter distances. As many younger horses are.
As a 2nd season chaser the Haldon Gold Cup is a well trodden starting point to start his campaign. Not really a great comparison me thinks.

Any way I'm not here to argue or be belittled.

I respect your opinions and like reading your posts.

The only horse I've backed so far is Boston Bob. (Against my normal thinking as I don't like Mullins as a trainer of 2nd season chasers)
Report brandyontherocks November 25, 2013 11:54 PM GMT
Fair enough if 19 out of 30 have not been 2nd season chasers I'm barking up the wrong tree.

But the last 20 years they hold the edge. Especially considering if you take into account multiple winning stars like Kauto and Best mate and remember See More was carried out as favourite.
Report Eeternaloptimist November 25, 2013 11:59 PM GMT
It's a good job judorick isn't chocolate or there'd be nowt left of him. Laugh
Report FOYLESWAR November 26, 2013 7:59 PM GMT
last season i put out a question to the stats boys  or anoraks( no disrespect intended ) its on one of these threads somewhere ! was how many of kings theartres prodigeny have  won over trips of 3m plus, from what i can remember it was only a few  or maybe 1, anyone update this, obviously cue card is another but interesting to know the numbers, tia
Report brandyontherocks November 26, 2013 10:02 PM GMT
To be fair Foyles it depend on the mare he was mated with.
Most NH stallions would rely on the Marie's stamina influence. But even then its down to how a horse can relax.
Report Eeternaloptimist November 27, 2013 12:38 AM GMT

A good number but of course this can be masked if you have a much better horse winning a weak race. I'd suggest what you really need are good horses winning good races because that's the question which I presume you're seeking to apply to Cue Card. I'd also suggest you take brandy's comments on board as well.

At a high level and apart from Cue Card there's three King's Theatre progeny which have won good races, The Minack, Witchita Lineman and Brindisi Breeze. A good few others have done it as well at a lower level.

It's an interesting angle because prior to him doing it in the gold cup I wasn't totally sure that his breeding suggested that the hill at the end of that distance was what Bob's Worth wanted. Which proved something conclusively. Trust your eyes. Laugh As Karl Popper said, all it takes to disprove the accepted fact of swans being white is one black one.

Interestingly Bob's Worth is out of a mare who was sired by King's Theatre.
Report buddeliea November 27, 2013 7:38 AM GMT
According to Ruby Walsh,Cue Card is bred to stay 5 miles!!!
As Brandy alluded to,its mostly about the mare.
Report Eeternaloptimist November 27, 2013 1:50 PM GMT
I think Ruby may have been exaggerating a bit there. On both sides of the dam's line there is stamina enough for 3 miles and sometimes well beyond but we aren't talking about some of the old fashioned sires who were all about stamina. Both King's Ride and Deep Run have enough for the job though.

The bottom line is that the discussion has become academic. Despite reservations about the official distance and/or ground we now know for a fact that Cue Card stays 3 miles very well in the highest company.
Report duffy November 27, 2013 2:05 PM GMT
Yes, the ambiguity about Saturdays distance doesn't have any bearing as regards the KG, but it does with regards to the GC.
Report aft December 4, 2013 8:09 PM GMT
I have coupled Cue Card with The New One (in the Champion Hurdle) to win 100k. 
Win, lose or draw, I believe they both were absolutely stonking bets at 10/1 and wish I could have persuaded others to lump on!

[i]He is an admirable improving young horse who does not know how to run a bad race and never gives up.
Surely they will give him another shot at the King George, assuming it will not be a quagmire like last year.
I dont see anything (barring Sprinter Sacre) to beat him over 3 miles on good ground at Kempton and the 10/1 available looks irresistible![i]               August 2013
Report aft December 5, 2013 9:07 AM GMT
Date Joined:     28 Mar 03
Blogger: aft's blog

I did try!

05 Sep 13 13:36

Still only 5yo but already rated 165 and still improving
Has improved with every race since his debut two years ago
Has improved more than 5lb on average with every race
Proven that he relishes Cheltenham
Stays 2m4f

Fill your boots!
Report marychain1 December 6, 2013 12:34 AM GMT
When were they both 10/1? The New One has been 4/1 since its first run and win this year, even before that it was 6/1 best price, whereas Cue Card was 25/1 until it won the Betfair Chase, well afterwards.
Report gutfeeling December 6, 2013 2:10 AM GMT
I got 10/1 the evening he won the Neptune,Went to have a bit more on in the morning and he was already 8's(With Paddys)
Report aft December 6, 2013 5:41 AM GMT
Thanks for the correction gutfeeling. You are quite right - TNO was best price 8//1 throughout the summer. My apologies.
I did have a couple of hundred on at 33/1 two days before the Neptune and took 10/1 immediately after race, but subsequently no better than 8/1.

I wish Cue Card (best price 12/1 last April) had been 25/1 for the KG marychain! But I can assure you that TNO was freely available (with badblokes) at 8/1 until mid October.
Report ReaseHeath December 27, 2013 3:24 PM GMT
I wonder if the Tizzard's will start to think about the Queen Mother again after today's events?
Report duffy December 27, 2013 3:29 PM GMT
He should do, if SS wasn't in the field he'd be a worthy fav. for me.
Report sj December 27, 2013 5:19 PM GMT
even with SS in if Tizzard made the Queen Mother his target 6-1 EW is a great bet for me
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