Personally think all the time Bobsworth is fit and in form, I really cannot see Cue Card being good enough to beat him in a gold cup.
Looks a multiple winner of the race to me.

Still, I look forward to seeing cue Card over further on decent going, he would add interest if he stays 3m, with his touch of class.

and CC could yet improve for the step up in trip

the King George was a write off from before the first fence, ignore that and he has improved with every run over fences

from the Arkle to the Haldon, Ascot and Ryan Air and now the Melling

keeps getting better and there is no telling how much there is to come yet

certainly ain't 25/1 for the Gold Cup though is he

He is an admirable improving young horse who does not know how to run a bad race and never gives up.
Surely they will give him another shot at the King George, assuming it will not be a quagmire like last year.
I dont see anything (barring Sprinter Sacre) to beat him over 3 miles on good ground at Kempton and the 10/1 available looks irresistable!

Really hope Al Ferof gets back fit and well.He and Cue Card doing battle again would be something to really look forward to,and they would add an awful lot to the 3m division for sure.
Al Ferof as most know is a big favourite of mine,but I have to say Cue Card has really grown on me,such a consistent and admirable sort.

Hi ff,whats bist mean??

agree mate,mr nicholls will relish a fit al ferof for sure,be interesting to see what his optimum distance will turn out to be.
both cue card and al ferof are solid at around 2 and a half,but 3m and 3m plus(gold cup)are still unknown trips for them.

haha,
well in that case im fine thanks mate.
Be even better in a couple of months!!

Weight carrying effort in the Paddy Power was one of the performances of last season. Hope he comes back as good as ever though I don't believe he is expected this year and if he doesn't race until 2014, he will have been off a long time.

On decent ground, I think Cue Card would beat him at distances up to 2 and a half miles. On slow ground and/or over an extended trip, I agree with you alleged though I wouldn't be backing him until I saw him do it on the racecourse again.

Al Ferof will be out this year as his target is the King George at the minute. The plan was to give him a run in the Peterborough chase in early December but Nichols is going off that idea now as he does not want to risk him bouncing by running in the King George so soon after the Peterborugh chase.

Owner John Hales is happy with his current condition but says a decision on whether he runs before Boxing Day will be up to Nicholls.

"Al Ferof is fine, he was up to three hours a day on the walker at Paul's before he came back to us for the summer, " said Hales.

"He's out in the field now and will head back to Ditcheat before Paul's open day.

"His target is the King George and Paul Nicholls will decide whether or not he has a run before that.

"If Paul thinks he needs a prep he'll have one, but given the way he won the Paddy Power he's very exciting

ive backed him for both, but then he is my favourite horse in training :)

You found it!

Cue Card

As I've said many times, I believe Cue Card has been consistently under rated by many punters and by the Official Handicapper. I'll try and explain why I say that.

I will ignore everything he did prior to going chasing, because that is largely irrelevant now as he is a third season Grade 1 chaser, and have a deeper look at his chasing career and give my genuine assessment. You never know, someone might be interested

Cue Card is 7 years old, has had 10 chase starts, winning 5 of them including the Ascot Chase Gr1 and Ryan Air Chase Gr1 (by nine lengths from First Lieutenant) and finishing second 3 times. The only times he has failed to make the first two were on his second chase start when he unseated Joe Tizzard (when travelling well 5 fences from home) and in the King George 2012 when he got lit up and failed to stay (still finished 5th). On the three occasions he has been second in a chase he has been beaten 7 lengths and 4.5 lengths by Sprinter Sacre (Arkle, Melling Chase) and a short head by Bobs Worth when giving him 7lbs which I think anyone would agree is pretty good form to say the least.

There have been no end of arguments about the race at Newbury with people saying 'the jockey cost Cue Card the race' and 'yeah, but Bobs Worth was having his first run' and so on. The simple point I would want to make is that Cue Card was 5 years old and giving 7lbs to an older horse that went on to win an RSA, a Hennessey and a Gold Cup. I don't think many have given enough thought to the ages and weight carried. Let's not forget, until recent times 5 year olds got a weight for age allowance from the older horses yet here is a 5 year old giving weight so for I think Cue Card deserves enormous credit (especially as he was mugged on the line)

There is no doubt that Cue Card is right up there with the best chasers around but the question I'm trying to get a handle on is how good is he on absolute terms? The BHA rate him 172 which I find difficult to understand as the form looks pretty easy to interpret. Cue Card has raced against First Lieutenant and Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant has raced against Cue Card, Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth has raced against CC, FL and SDC so it should be fairly straightforward.

The handicapper has BW rated 180 and let's assume that's fair. He has Sir Des Champs on 173 and he was beaten 7 lengths by BW in the Gold Cup so let's assume that's fair. However, First Lieutenant managed to finish half a length in front of SDC in the Lexus and a length and a quarter behind him at Punchestown yet is rated 3 lb inferior on 170. I would have him on 172 but that's not important.

Cue Card beat First Lieutenant 9 lengths in the Ryan Air, and has hammered Menorah (rated 169) by upwards of 20 lengths in 3 races against him (Haldon, Arkle, Ryan Air). Despite all this evidence the BHA have Cue Card on 172. Yes, some will argue that FL might have got closer in the Ryan Air but there is no doubt Cue Card handed him a much more authoritative beating than Sir Des Champs did.

How they rate Cue Card only 2lb better than FL, 3lb better than Menorah and a pound lower than Sir Des Champs is beyond me. I reckon he should be at least 7lbs higher than First Lieutenant and 10lb superior to Menorah so somewhere around 177 to 179 would be about right in my estimation. That would link in nicely with getting beat 4.5 lengths by Sprinter Sacre who is on 188 and should be able to get to 190.

The reason I say all this is because I reckon, now he is fully mature and they know how to ride him, he should be capable of significant further progress this season. He should have the speed to lead any field at 2 miles 4 furlongs and up, the question will be can he maintain that gallop right to the end?

If my assessment is accurate (i.e should already be rated 177+) and he makes the 5 to 8lbs of improvement I think he is capable of achieving, then the sky is the limit. I'm on 25s and 33s nrfb for the Gold Cup and if he gets out in front, on good ground, that could look a massive price. What price would he be in Tizzard announced it was his definite intention to run in the Gold Cup?


We shall, as they say, see

Judo - thanks for taking the time to do that write up. It is a really informative post and hard to argue against the case for Cue Card to be rated 177+. I reckon the Betfair Chase will define his season and plans. Good luck. I know you really like the horse.  Me. I am preying Al Ferof comes back as good as prior injury. He is my Cue Card !

Interesting post, Rick, thanks

The ground done him Chief,that plus him totally unsettled for the first few furlongs.
Decent ground and a proper ride will see him have a chance of proving he stays.
Deserves another chance for sure.

Cue Card did smash up FL in the ryanair, but direct comparisons of the weights and measures involving differing distances is a grey area isn't it, for instance, to get an accurate gauge on the correlation between CC and FL, it would be helpful if we could see a race between them over 3 miles, the thrashing that CC handed out to FL was arguably over a far more suitable distance for him than FL, so to use that line of form solely to promote CC higher, is open for debate.

CC's legacy if that's not too melodramatic is going to be based on whether he can get 3 miles and further with regards to the gold cup.His rating has been gleaned from performances over trips shorter than 3 miles and again it can be argued that the opposition in those races are significantly inferior to the ratings gained from the 3 mile brigade and the opposition there ,with FL in the ryainair, the distance may have handicapped him and therefore that correlation may be skewed, I think that's what may be getting him marked down a bit.

over what distance though, if it was over 2.4,then I'd agree CC would be fav. if it was over 3+ then it's the other way round, that's my point, ideally there should be different ratings for different distances, (impossible I know) because the horses have different abilities over different distances, same as ground etc.

Distance is crucial Judo,and whilst I think you make fair points in thinking CC is underated,horses like FL and in particular Bobsworth are better over further.Bobsworth much much better.
It is all about CC staying and until he does comparing them for ratings is not gonna be accurate.

we will find out because they have said the plan is Haldon - Betfair - King George

They did say Ascot - Ryan Air after Xmas but that plan will surely depend on Haydock/Kempton performances

been having a look at the Haldon Gold Cup this morning and have to say, if they all turn up, it looks a massively difficult task for Cue Card. Both Fago and Williams Wishes appear serious contenders so it will be interesting to see how they get on

I remember dear old Twist Magic just failing by half a length off 173, giving 20lbs to Tchico Polos, a couple of years ago so there's no doubt Cue Card can do it but let's be clear it will not be easy