Budd Bino

Only just picked up on this thread but wanted to address a couple of points from the first page.

Firstly, Strontium you say you need a horse who stays a strongly run three miles to win the King George and that you suspect Grands Crus has not proven this. I would contest that the Feltham under the exact King George conditions was run at an extreme pace set by Mr Moonshine and Teaforthree (a decent horse in his own right, who won at the festival). The race was actually run in a quicker time than the King George. I don't know what timeform rated the two races and don't particularly care to find out but I can see topspeed gave Grands Crus a higher mark than Kauto Star so I would also contest your point that his Feltham form would have him way back in this years King George (a race that already lacks a standout candidate, despite the circumstantial depth you point too).

I find it a little strange that noone has mentioned the burst blood vessel in the RSA. This would seem a perfectly plausible explanation for him traveling so well and then coming to a virtual stop very quickly, almost reminiscent of Sizing Europe in Katchit's Champion Hurdle. Does anyone seriously believe at his best he is about the same horse as Walkon?

Voice of reason I can only assume your name is ironic! 'Erratic' form at Cheltenham? Throwing the RSA to get a few less lbs in the Hennessey!?

Barnsey, I somewhat going over old ground here, perhaps from one of the other threads. My main problem with Grands Crus is that I don't actually think he's that good. He narrowly beat SonofVic at Newbury in a horrible race then narrowly beat Silvianaco Conti and Bobsworth at Kempton. SC does not appear to be a superstar and Bobsworth was unsuited by the track and had a breathing problem. This is of course all opinion but it was my opinion before the RSA, which did nothing to change it because he got stuffed.

As for whether he stays, what's unreasonable about saying I'm not convinced yet? He dominated the Feltham from a little over half way against inferior horses - optimum conditions for him to stay - yet he was still being reeled in by the others down the straight. AP McCoy has said if they ran the Feltham 100 times it couldn't be run to suit Grands Crus better. Before that, he didn't stay convincingly against Big Buck's in the World Hurlde or Liverpool Hurdle (admittedly not easy). Ruby Walsh says Grands Crus doesn't see out his races and he's been at the sharp end against him at least 3 times - he's also an excellent judge who's opinion I respect.

I don't entirely accept the KG/Feltham time arguement. In NH races, times are taken from the tape going up. In the Feltham the horses were right on the tape and running (it was almost a flase start), in the KG they were some distance back and cantering. That alone accounts for the time difference in the races. According to someone in RP (sorry, I forget who - Rodway perhaps), Kauto and GC ran the final circuit of their races in similar times. But even that ignores the facts that GC carried less weight and ran on the rail, whereas Kauto ran at least half the lap 3 horses wide. All I want to draw from this is that simply comparing the times of the two races is not straightforward, even if the conditions were "identical".

I'm not convinced Grands Crus properly stays a hard run 3 m at the top level. I stand to be proved wrong and would not be disappointed if I were. That's just my view at the moment.

As for your final comment to me - I'd say the Champion Chaser Finians Rainbow and the former King George and Gold Cup winner Long Run are the stand outs at this stage. There's a horse who might run called Kauto Star who's also OK round the C&D.

Foyles - the persons best informed will be connections i.e trainer and jockey, they are closest to the horse and will have a better idea than anyone else .

You'd like to think that were true but sadly some jockeys are very poor judges as are some trainers. D.Pipe is not one of the poorer ones by any means but GC is such a high quality horse he can fool connections very easily that he stays when he doesn't.

As I've said I can count 3 times at least where he hasn't stayed according to my interpretation of staying and that includes a race where everyone thinks its cast iron proof that he does stay.

Anyway good to talk jumps - 6 weeks to Chepstow. Time to get the betting boots shined up.

^ Or that they adore the horse because they have had plenty of good ones but very few this good...

Possible he could be top class at a distance that suits i guess,but no way is he top class yet at any distance,and he will never be top class at 3m imo.
All still to prove.

It's superficially similar. However, Long Run didn't get stuffed out of sight in the RSA and he got beaten by a very good horse. He also had some top class chasing form in France before he came to the UK. He's also a horse who seems to need his seasonal debut (explaining his PP run somewhat and his Betfair Chase the following season), and is now a doughty stayer so even then 2m 5f may have been on the short side.

Nevertheless, I would like to see GC in the PP as he's much better than a 157 horse and it's over his ideal trip (imo) so he should run well. Then he can come back and compete in the Ryanair.

RNL, I expect that's right. GC will end up in the Gold Cup but only because he won't be given the chance to fail enough beforehand. 

However, I believe his best chance of winning at the Festival is the Ryanair (and for that reason, off 157, he's a big player in the PP if he runs there).

Maybe, but the PP is a prestigious race, possibly better as a season opener, and the Pipe's love it. I'd not be surprised if he turns up in any of the Betfair, PP or Hennessey as his season opener (and the last would resolve the staying question). I'm sure he'll run in the King George and Gold Cup.

Re the King George, if he's a runner, Kauto Star is the obvious bet - he's won it 5 years of the last 6, he's the top rated chaser in training, he won't run unless he's spot on and he'll be trained to second. If he doesn't make it, Riverside Theatre for me.

I think Riverside might be an exceptionally good horse and 3 m on a flat, right handed track should be ideal for him. Finians is an interesting one for sure but there has to be some doubt he'll stay (though he got the "easy" 2 1/2m at Aintree with no problem). I know others have argued on here he will improve for a staying trip and he has to be respected as the Champion Chaser, I'm just not sure myself.

Personally I hope Kauto doesn't run again - I'd be heartbroken if anything happens to him. But if he does run he's a massive danger to all over that C&D. I take your point about the fall - I've had the same thought - but the horse is hard as nails.

It could be shaping up to be a stellar race - we're talking about the top rated chaser in training, the Ryanair winner and the Champion Chaser. Then we've got a former KG and Gold Cup winner in Long Run. If Grands Crus does beat that lot he's a classy animal.