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although i am keen on a few others if grans crus can repeat his feltham chase win then he must have every chance in the king george, the form has worked out well with the 2nd 3rd and 4th all winning good races since .if you can ignore the rsa run( for whatever reason) then he must have an exellent chance and should have more improvement to come ,and the track seems to suit so a good few positives ! hard to knock his chance at this stage really .good luck with it .
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I agree it's probably his ideal race but I don't think beating Silvianaco Conti by a fast diminishing 2 l was "awesome". You need a horse that stays a strongly run 3 m, which the King George always is, and I'm not convinced Grands Crus is one. The Feltham he won could not have been run to suit him more if he'd had 100 tries.
It looks like it could be a very tough renewal in 2012 - Long Run, Riverside Theatre, possibly Captain Chris, perhaps one of the Gigginstown stayers, possibly Finians Rainbow, possibly Kauto Star, Invictus, Silvianaco Conti. If so, it will take a very good horse to win it. Kauto was able to take care of the 2-2 1/2 milers because he had enormous class and was a stayer with great speed. 3 m at Kemptom has probably been his ideal conditions. Remember he won 2 Tingle Creeks and was top rated over 2, 2 1/2 and 3 miles in 2007. Most horses are not Kauto Star and it is a mistake to assume other horses can do things he has. |
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PS - Grands Crus would need to find another stone on both OR and Timeform ratings to win the King George - so if he does what he did in the Feltham, on the figures, he'll be well beaten in the KG.
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i have already put up 2 for the king george at what imo are value choices ,and they have to improve roughly the same or more as grans crus its entirely possible and these 2nd season chasers may be a decent bunch (then again they may be pants ) the thing is the kauto is 12 now and long run is looking vulnerable so may be time for the new kids on the block to rule . the big fly in the ointment is finians his owner has said he is stepping up in trip .
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Foyles, I certainly expect the novices to improve but I feel there are at least 3 better than Grands Crus (though GC may well be the best to run in the King George). I was just pointing out that the last Feltham was probably not a King George winning performance.
Kauto and Long Run were the top two rated staying chasers last year. Ratings are static but horses aren't - however, both merit great respect over a C&D that suits them both very well. If Kauto does tuen up we can expect him to be tuned to the minute once again. I don't want to be overly critical of GC - he is a good horse and as I said above I think 3 m at Kempton might be ideal for him. I just won't be rushing out to back him at 6/1 for a race that's 5 months away, especially when his last race was an unexplained blob at odds-on. |
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*sorry, he went off 6/5 fav - memory playing tricks - but my point still stands.
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Strontium - Not that I think Grand Crus stays properly but Timeform and OR ratings aren't worth a to$$.
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Long Run won the Feltham, before a below par run in the RSA, only to win the KG the next season.
I appreciate that doesn't mean Grands Crus will do the same, but there are a some similarities, and after disappointing in the PP Long Run improved a stone to win - albeit I'm not sure where they are aiming Grands Crus to start off with |
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Grand Crus should serve it up to Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase next season
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Gut feeling is we have already seen the best of Grand Crus.
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And that aint good enough.
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Wonder what route they will go with the horse this year....maybe same one that Long Run went on when winning Gold Cup...
Paddy Power Gold Cup King George Gold Cup... |
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Agree Grand Cru is a very good horse , the conundrum is
a) Does he stay 3 mile 2 furlongs won and placed over 3 mile plus , actually unbeaten over 2 mile 5 furlongs (3-3)Fancy ryanair will be the target possibly b)Is he a flat track horse ideally good form Kempton (BEAT HIGHLY RATED SILVINIO CONTI) , Newbury (BEAT HIGHLY RATE SONOFVIC), Aintree (LOST TWICE TO THE ONE AND ONLY BIG BUCKS) , form little bit erratic at Cheltenham c)ground dependent prefers good or softer - Long held view its ground for turn around in a horses form.If horse goes on lets say fast ground that's plus 20 lengths advantage on his real form.If next race is softer that horse would be minus 20 lengths.I live and breathe this method in working out form. d)More time between his races (unlike most Pipe horses) last two festivals Pipe gave him good break from last race going into the festival ( 47 & 79) ,presumably keeping him fresh.However a stand out for me is last two seasons he kicks of season with 3 straight wins before his winning stops. Conclusion is back him early season on any type of course with ground no faster than good over variable trips, if he was mine i would start him in King George (easy 3 mile) and third race would be Ryanair - I fancy him strongly to win King George and Ryanair if they went that way as i feel this Gold Cup could be a classic. |
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Good analysis VoR and I largely agree with your conclusion. Just to say that when he beat Sonofvic at Newbury it was a very close race even though SoV ploughed through, literally, half the fences - SoV then blew up completely in his only other chase. I did not condsider it an impressive performance by Grands Crus.
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I think there is every chance we will see Grands Crus first time up in the Hennessy. First race last year victory at the Hennessy meeting. Also connections won the Hennessy with Madison Du Berlais, so presumably all look to the race. Great prize money, usually goes to second season chasers(not always) and we'll see if he stays 3m2f. Then onto Kempton. Sounds like a plan to me.
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^ Apols 2nd race of season last year was his Newbury win. Still think they'll go this route though. Just my opinion.
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Hope so Shock - I love the Hennessey
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So do I Stront. Hotels been booked since last December.
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Hennessy may be starting point , and he was impressive last season.We know ground will be ok and does run well fresh.
Dare i suggest Mr Pipe that this may of been long term plan and possibly messed about with him to give him slighty lower handicap rating.It wouldn't be first time yard played silly buggers. For what its worth i fancy Invictus if yard in form |
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Is it possible they may consider the Pp and Hennessy double as per the late Great Endeavour. He was only narrowly denied, and my impression is Grands Crus should be the better stayer. Some of Grands Crus most impressive performances were lumping top weight ariund over hurdles in decent handicaps as well.
I think hed have a decent chance at both but defeats may even send him off a bigger price for what should be the main target at Kempton |
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Tom Scudamore is looking forward to a successful campaign with Grands Crus.
The jockey expects the David Pipe-trained grey to put a poor final run of last season in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham behind him. The seven-year-old was a well-beaten fourth to Bobs Worth after being sent off a hot favourite thanks to winning his first three races over fences, culminating in the Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. "He seems in really good form and looks fantastic. He's back cantering and had his first one at the beginning of the week," Scudamore told At The Races. "He came back wrong from Cheltenham. The run round Kempton in the Feltham was probably my biggest thrill of the whole season. He wasn't the same horse at Cheltenham. He didn't pick up when I thought he came there to win the race. "Normally he kicks into another gear, but on that day it didn't happen. That's racehorses, but he looks fantastic and David (Pipe) will get him back - no doubt about that. "There are lots of options for him. There's Cheltenham, Haydock and places like that. We'll see how he is, but he looks very well at the moment." |
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That horse is always gonna look good at home. Where he'll get found out is in truly run races where he needs to stay. Given how classy he is he'll get away with it many times but they need to realise 2m4f is his optimal trip.
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Voice of Reason
Flat track horse ????????? ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Loves Cheltenham Messed about with him ????????????????????? ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() FFS he wins nearly every time he runs. |
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now now.....................!
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Think Racingguru has it about right with this horse,2m4 is his optimum trip,particularly at Cheltenham.
Their does seem to be a fair few choosing to ignore his RSA performance. Yes a horse can ge forgiven one run,but i think it sensible not to back him too heavy to prove that run wrong. Personally would not back him for any race over 2 and a half at the top level. |
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I pretty much agree with you both, though I think he might get 3 m at Kempton/Aintree/Haydock at a stretch (not ideal though).
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anyone ever heard a jockey say
' he has come back in and looks awful can't see him doing anything this season'. |
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^ Yes, but not in print!
All you naysayers are in for a rough season with this beast. He stays just fine. I think he'll get an entry in the Paddy Power for sure, but expect him to go to the Betfair and then the King George before skipping on to the Gold Cup via the Pillar. Only thing putting me off a decent wedge on him for the Gold Cup is the ground; am worried it will always be a bit quick for him to be at his best. If it was on the easy side he'd be a major player. I think his speed is a red herring - it's not that he wants an intermediate trip, it's just that he's faster than most classy horses. Getting him to settle is obviously key but he has plenty of basic stamina in the locker. |
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I think we'll have to agree to disagree about this at this stage Tom
As always, it will be fun finding out what the horse can do. |
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PS, re Tom Scu, I haven't been able to take him seriously since he was apparently in tears when Big Buck's beat Grands Crus. Perhaps not a student of the form book
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Or a sign that Grands Crus is in fact a beast
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Tom - most very good horses appear to stay pretty well because they are on the bridle so long but the acid test is when there is a strong pace and good company. It's a difficult decision as to what trip a top class horse should be campaigned over as opposition at other distances is relevant. Grand Crus whilst not staying 3m properly could do very well over that trip given that there are weak fields and often soft paces in the races. But Gold Cup no chance whatever going.
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But he has shown he stays perfectly well, and under unsuitable conditions!
Although not being the strongest of fields, there was enough strength in depth in his Cleeve Hurdle massacre on soft ground to show that he has more than enough stamina. And in his defeats to Big Buck's over timber, he saw out the trip very well. OK, perhaps the pace was not a truly searching one, but he lasted a lot longer than Oscar Whisky did this year and that one is a very, very high-class horse. I am in full agreement with your general point; any horse can stay any trip if it is running against weak enough opposition, but this one has been running in very high grade races from an early age over the trip, and on testing ground. His win in that valuable Haydock handicap might have been a shoo-in based on his weight and the ability he had to carry much more, but he still won pulling a cart and non-stayers don't do that in very testing conditions. I've seen many good horses wilt up that straight even off slow paces (Bensalem did it over hurdles a little while back in a slowly-run race and he won a lungbursting William Hill at the Festival). This is not aimed at anyone on here, but more of a general point: it never ceases to surprise me how quickly punters can dismiss a horse based on one bad run. Even a lot of the greats were hit and miss, but this one has only ever disappointed once to my mind, and that disappointment was so great that it almost makes it easier for me to forgive; if he had come there on the bridle and then paddled after the last to fade into fourth in the RSA I'd have to admit the trip did for him. But he was spent at the turn and there is no way if I am any judge whatsoever that it was a stamina issue. Take out that disappointment and he has a great Cheltenham record, form in top-class races over a variety of trips and on a range of ground (no small thing for these Grade One championship horses to have as a feather in their bows), and, as flyingbolt said earlier on this thread, he wins nearly every time he runs! I suppose I am happy that the consensus seems to be he won't stay three miles well enough to win at the highest level. If he lines up in the Betfair on softish ground I will most certainly be putting my money where my mouth is! |
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Tom, here's one of the places where we disagree. GC's run at Newbury just wasn't that impressive. He narrowly beat Sonofvic conceding 7 lb when SoV was making his chase debut and went through, literally, half his fences. In his next chase (the Dipper?) SoV totally blew up. I'm also still not convinced his Feltham run was all that good - although the horses he beat have won good races since Kempton is clearly unsuitable for Bobsworth and I'll be surprised in Silvianaco Conti turns out to be top class. I'm prepared to believe that Grands Crus RSA was closer to his true running than you think. I might be totally and utterly wrong about this horse - that's the nature of the game - but it is my view at the moment.
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Tom - here's my issue. I decided he didn't stay AFTER the Cleeve. Backed up by his Aintree effort that year and again in the RSA so 3 times.
I guess its how you look at races but the Cleeve just didn't do it for me and thats from a person holding a big AP EW voucher for the world which I unloaded the win IR for a good profit. Just didn't pull away in the Cleeve like a stayer would against moderate opposition. No again people will say opposition in Cleev wasn't moderate etc but for him it was. I think that highly of the horse that I think he could win a Ryanair and shake up Sprinter Sacre over 2m so its relative. |
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Clear to me he did not stay in the RSA,and to my mind thats as good as he is anyway,no display by him over fences has got me thinking any different to that.
If anyone chooses to ignore that run,you are entitled to,but rather dangerous imo,and i really think anyone following this horse will lose money,unless he is campaigned at a trip the horse is comfortable with. And that aint 3m from what i have seen. |
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I agree with various things people are saying on here.
I think he can definitely win a Betfair, and I would back him if he lines up (for small stakes and odds depending). I do think his optimum trip is 3m, not 2m4 or 3m2, which is why I think a Betfair or a King George may be ideal. Only problem with the Betfair is Haydock can become a bog, so first time out in open chase company in a bog may have a big impact on the rest of his season. I didn't back him in the RSA, but I am prepared to give him another chance, because I'm not sure it was his true running. If he flops in the Betfair then we'll all know; the beauty of racing. However having said that, based on this year's RSA, I'd have to back First Lieutenant for the Ryanair at 32, rather than Grands Crus at 11. Is Grands Crus the new Binocular? The ultimate opinion divider! |
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Fair assessment Wellchief but to finish on such a polemic now thats naughty LOL
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Obviously it depends who else turns up, but i think i would fancy him more at Kempton than Haydock. The slightly better southern ground might make Kempton less of a slog.
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