Cheltenham Festival
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24 Jul 12
10:23
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24 Apr 09
I reckon SIMONSIG will have his 1st run next season over hurdles and if all goes well I can see him going for the championhurdle and along with DARLAN go very well .... Although im not a fan of horses coming back after a long lay off i thought BURTON PORT ran really well and i can see him being Nicky Henderson's main 2013 Grand National Horse with a big chance ...
Boston Bob has got RSA written all over him ................ Very impressed with Sir Des Champs and he is surely a serious gold cup contender and im Convinced that theres a big race in Champions Court ................... Alderwood done so well to win the County and if he goes chasing he could easily take the ARKLE ..................
Just a few of my thoughts there as i start to look forward to the jumps season getting under way .................... Hope 1 of my fav horses Get me out of here wins a decent prize and although its tongue in cheek I still believe that GMOH will be the 1st to lower the Mighty BIG BUCKS colours at some stage next season
the big 3 Big Bucks - Quevega - Sprinter Sacre can also collect at Cheltenham 2013 and @ around the 11/1 mark @ the moment looks good value as come cheltenham if all 3 make there respective races i would imagine the treble will only be 5/1 @ best
Just some of my thoughts,love Ante Post betting and iv had some cracking AP wagers up over the years along with plenty of Non Runners but thats the risk in Ante Post betting and i wouldent change a thing............... Roll on The Jumps
Boston Bob has got RSA written all over him ................ Very impressed with Sir Des Champs and he is surely a serious gold cup contender and im Convinced that theres a big race in Champions Court ................... Alderwood done so well to win the County and if he goes chasing he could easily take the ARKLE ..................
Just a few of my thoughts there as i start to look forward to the jumps season getting under way .................... Hope 1 of my fav horses Get me out of here wins a decent prize and although its tongue in cheek I still believe that GMOH will be the 1st to lower the Mighty BIG BUCKS colours at some stage next season
the big 3 Big Bucks - Quevega - Sprinter Sacre can also collect at Cheltenham 2013 and @ around the 11/1 mark @ the moment looks good value as come cheltenham if all 3 make there respective races i would imagine the treble will only be 5/1 @ best
Just some of my thoughts,love Ante Post betting and iv had some cracking AP wagers up over the years along with plenty of Non Runners but thats the risk in Ante Post betting and i wouldent change a thing............... Roll on The Jumps
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Good idea for a thread SNA!
I'd really like to see Simonsig go for the Champion Hurdle but all the signs are he's going chasing.
I have been a huge fan of Burton Port over the years and had him down as a big contender for the Gold Cup this year but maybe he ran a little flat after his comeback at Newbury. He'll have a big job to win the National off 166 unless the handicapper cuts him a bit of slack though.
I definitely agree about Champion Court - could be a big player in one of the 2 1/2m November or December handicaps at Cheltenham - he looks a Cheltenham horse. Also Sir des Champs - looks the one to beat at this stage - I wish I'd listened to a few people and taken the 50's eearlier in the year!
I'd really like to see Simonsig go for the Champion Hurdle but all the signs are he's going chasing.
I have been a huge fan of Burton Port over the years and had him down as a big contender for the Gold Cup this year but maybe he ran a little flat after his comeback at Newbury. He'll have a big job to win the National off 166 unless the handicapper cuts him a bit of slack though.
I definitely agree about Champion Court - could be a big player in one of the 2 1/2m November or December handicaps at Cheltenham - he looks a Cheltenham horse. Also Sir des Champs - looks the one to beat at this stage - I wish I'd listened to a few people and taken the 50's eearlier in the year!
Looking forward to Cinders and Ashes who paid for my meeting this year. Not sure which race he will go for though. I never used to think that ex-bumper Supreme horses could have the speed for a CH but since Bold Inca, they seem to have the upper hand over flat horses. I don't think that the class of flat horse going hurdling is as strong as it was because there is so much more flat racing for the 100 rated staying types.
Sage, do you think it also has something to do with the meeting starting on G-S ground nowadays which suits the more stoutly bred NH horses? Whatever the explanation, the pattern is real.
I've said it a few times, but really hoping Cotton Mill goes for the Champion Hurdle.
He would have given Simonsig a real race had he stood up, and would have finished miles clear of 3rd in the Neptune. Then at Aintree he was absolutely cruising and clearly didn't stay 3m.
Therefore, I think he'd have no chance in a World Hurdle or RSA. So, for me it has to be Champion Hurdle or Arkle / Jewson if they go chasing. To my eye he looks a very good hurdler and isn't crying out for a fence just yet.
I've had a small bet at 70/1 for the CH, so hoping I get a run for my money.
Of the ones that missed the festival, obvious ones like Spirit Son, Grandouet, Last Instalment, Fingal Bay, Invictus and Waheeb are all exciting.
He would have given Simonsig a real race had he stood up, and would have finished miles clear of 3rd in the Neptune. Then at Aintree he was absolutely cruising and clearly didn't stay 3m.
Therefore, I think he'd have no chance in a World Hurdle or RSA. So, for me it has to be Champion Hurdle or Arkle / Jewson if they go chasing. To my eye he looks a very good hurdler and isn't crying out for a fence just yet.
I've had a small bet at 70/1 for the CH, so hoping I get a run for my money.
Of the ones that missed the festival, obvious ones like Spirit Son, Grandouet, Last Instalment, Fingal Bay, Invictus and Waheeb are all exciting.
WC, I agree entirely about Cotton Mill (and Grandouet and Last Instalment).
your list of horses that didn't even run at Cheltenham in March is the reason why I seldom back ante post except at very long odds. The chance of any horse being sick or injured in 8 months time is about 30%.
Simonsig has 2 chances of staying over hurdles - a dogs chance and no chance. He is crying out for a fence.
Why do people think Simonsig is "crying out for a fence". He isn't IMO. Doesn't jump hurdles fluently so why would he be any better over fences. Has any amount of ability and connections have a potential multiple champion hurdle winner on their hands should they take the correct route. No point going chasing, even if he wins the arkle this year he then has to bump into Sprinter Sacre at 2m, and dont think he'll stay Gold Cup trip.
The only reason people think he's crying out for a fnce is the size of him, no other reason. I agree I dont get the theory of him wanting to go chasing
He's tall and leggy but last time I saw him (end of March) he hadn't filled in to his frame - it might take him a couple of years to develop as a chaser while he does.
and of course that simonsigs already won a p2p......
If I was to have a bet now it would be on Bobs Worth for the Gold Cup, reminds me of Imperial Commander, just loves Cheltenham
Good shout bluebiedfan and although i like Sir Des Champ i think Bobs Worth will run in a huge race in the gold cup...
Regarding Simonsig im convinced that his first run will be over hurdles and if he impresses i see him staying over hurdles and could well go off favourite for the Champion Hurdle....
Regarding Simonsig im convinced that his first run will be over hurdles and if he impresses i see him staying over hurdles and could well go off favourite for the Champion Hurdle....
If they stay over hurdles I think he'll win (at least one) Champion Hurdle. Don't understand the obsession with chasing.
Agree RE Bobs Worth, stays forever. Stamina test of Cheltenham seems to suit him ideally, hope he drifts when beaten in races that place less emphasis on stamina early this season. SDS a big threat, between those two at the moment, IMO.
Agree RE Bobs Worth, stays forever. Stamina test of Cheltenham seems to suit him ideally, hope he drifts when beaten in races that place less emphasis on stamina early this season. SDS a big threat, between those two at the moment, IMO.
I have my doubts about Bobs Worth at the current price. I fully agree Cheltenham suits him (he looks about a stone better there) and he's a good bet to place because he's tough and he'll stay. Moreover, nothing he beat in the RSA seems likely to reverse form with him.
However, he looks like a bit of a grinder, which suits horses in the RSA but in the Gold Cup they often need a touch of class. Secondly, recent RSA have an applling record the following season (isn't Denman the only one in a while to even win a race the following season?). Next, the opposition in the 2013 Gold Cup looks high quality - horses like Sir des Champs, Last Instalment, Flemenstar and even Long Run, none of which BW has raced yet and all of which could be better than him imo.
I agree with Workforce BW's price may drift early in the season as he races on less suitable tracks. The comparison above with Imperial Commander is interesting but an overstatement. IC had won a championship race at the Festival before and ran the great Kauto Star to a nose between that horse's two best runs. BobsW has done nothing close to that yet.
However, he looks like a bit of a grinder, which suits horses in the RSA but in the Gold Cup they often need a touch of class. Secondly, recent RSA have an applling record the following season (isn't Denman the only one in a while to even win a race the following season?). Next, the opposition in the 2013 Gold Cup looks high quality - horses like Sir des Champs, Last Instalment, Flemenstar and even Long Run, none of which BW has raced yet and all of which could be better than him imo.
I agree with Workforce BW's price may drift early in the season as he races on less suitable tracks. The comparison above with Imperial Commander is interesting but an overstatement. IC had won a championship race at the Festival before and ran the great Kauto Star to a nose between that horse's two best runs. BobsW has done nothing close to that yet.
I also think Simonsig would have a fantastic chance at the Champion Hurdle this year as well. I requested a price before the Neptune and was offered between 33/1 and 40/1 for this year's Champion Hurdle, but too many people on here said he was going chasing, so decided not to take the bet.
I think one of the reasons why they think he will be good over fences is because he doesn't really respect hurdles, so they think he may pay more attention to fences and jump them more fluently. BJG said after Aintree "He’s a real chaser, and while he can jump hurdles well enough he can be a little careless and I think he would have more respect for fences."
He was correct on saying he should go for the Neptune, so have to trust his judgement.
They should have a 2m chase in the Olympics, Team GB would be guaranteed a Gold medal.
I think one of the reasons why they think he will be good over fences is because he doesn't really respect hurdles, so they think he may pay more attention to fences and jump them more fluently. BJG said after Aintree "He’s a real chaser, and while he can jump hurdles well enough he can be a little careless and I think he would have more respect for fences."
He was correct on saying he should go for the Neptune, so have to trust his judgement.
They should have a 2m chase in the Olympics, Team GB would be guaranteed a Gold medal.
Howdi, that's true. But I think there will be a number of classy horses in opposition next year (the ones listed in my post above) whereas this year there weren't once Kauto got injured and Long Run underperformed. Of course good grinders can win the Gold Cup, especially if the opposition is weak, but I still want to start with the class horses when thinking about the race.
While agreeing that Simonsig is not necessarily crying out for a fence just yet, I'm not sure he is a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting either. Firstly, he'd need to jump much more fluently than he has to this point, and he might not be good enough either.
Am not crabbing the horse as I love him, and he could be an absolute monster, but I am inclined to think that perhaps Hendo and Geraghty got it right regarding his trip at Cheltenham. He wouldn't necessarily be as good at two miles.
Wellchief, interesting views about Cotton Mill. He was one of the sore points of the Festival for me as I'd backed him at fancy prices and thought he was still going very strongly before having a moment of madness. I also have a niggling doubt that he'd not be good enough to win a Champion though. Very exciting year though I think - any number of potential winners unlike in previous seasons.
Am not crabbing the horse as I love him, and he could be an absolute monster, but I am inclined to think that perhaps Hendo and Geraghty got it right regarding his trip at Cheltenham. He wouldn't necessarily be as good at two miles.
Wellchief, interesting views about Cotton Mill. He was one of the sore points of the Festival for me as I'd backed him at fancy prices and thought he was still going very strongly before having a moment of madness. I also have a niggling doubt that he'd not be good enough to win a Champion though. Very exciting year though I think - any number of potential winners unlike in previous seasons.
The prices on the novice events are getting to be a joke.
Fancied a little flutter on Montbazon for the Arkle but best price is just 14/1.
Only value I can see antepost is Finians Rainbow in the QM @ 7/1. Only one real rival to my eyes in Sprinter Sacre and though they may try Finians over further during the season (like they did with Sizing Europe) I expect he'll be back to defend his crown as 2m on the Old Course is clearly tailor made for him.
Fancied a little flutter on Montbazon for the Arkle but best price is just 14/1.
Only value I can see antepost is Finians Rainbow in the QM @ 7/1. Only one real rival to my eyes in Sprinter Sacre and though they may try Finians over further during the season (like they did with Sizing Europe) I expect he'll be back to defend his crown as 2m on the Old Course is clearly tailor made for him.
^^^^ is it tailor made for him??? or did he beat horses who were over the hill?
Would have lost to Sizing Europe this year imo were it not for the last fence problems and the fallers leaving Sizing ahead far too early, plus a brilliant bit of riding by Geraghty as they came round the fence.
Is Buckley really going to want his best horse humiliated by it's stablemate?
Is Buckley really going to want his best horse humiliated by it's stablemate?
I agree with unclepuncle, although time will tell whether Henderson tries to make Finians something he is not.
I've always thought he was a genuine two-miler and am still convinced he is. That doesn't mean he'll beat Sprinter Sacre, but he has a better chance of doing that than winning a Ryanair in my opinion. Two miles at Cheltenham suits him very well I think, but the Ryanair trip would stretch him I feel.
Also, to me, he was a very good winner of a good Queen Mother. He was inconvenienced by the last-fence omission as much as Sizing and the two pulled miles clear. Don't think you can argue Sizing was left in front too soon. He loves bowling along at the head of affairs and it's not as if Finian's was racing with others. They were in indian file for most of the race.
I still think he is being underestimated because most people had decided before the Queen Mother that he was either soft, not good enough, or a weak finisher. Under conditions that suit, that's not the case, and he proved that in March.
I've always thought he was a genuine two-miler and am still convinced he is. That doesn't mean he'll beat Sprinter Sacre, but he has a better chance of doing that than winning a Ryanair in my opinion. Two miles at Cheltenham suits him very well I think, but the Ryanair trip would stretch him I feel.
Also, to me, he was a very good winner of a good Queen Mother. He was inconvenienced by the last-fence omission as much as Sizing and the two pulled miles clear. Don't think you can argue Sizing was left in front too soon. He loves bowling along at the head of affairs and it's not as if Finian's was racing with others. They were in indian file for most of the race.
I still think he is being underestimated because most people had decided before the Queen Mother that he was either soft, not good enough, or a weak finisher. Under conditions that suit, that's not the case, and he proved that in March.
why didnt he beat sommersby time before cant work that out.
Quick answer as far as I read it is that he wasn't anywhere near peak form at Ascot, which was also true for other Hendo horses, and he was in front way too soon as a target for the finishers. Allied to that is my belief that Somersby is a very good horse over two miles at Ascot; his form there with Master Minded is top-drawer. Just another example of a horse people are quick to run down because he is clearly an awkward one to get the best out of. When things go right, under ideal conditions, he's a damned good horse.
i see it a bit different to most regarding finians (but i have backed him for the gold cup so may be pocket talking ) but to me fininans is crying out for further ,i have watched his race at kemp over xmas when he stayed on after a horrendous mistake 3 or 4 out and ran on strongly to get up near the line to beat wishfull thinking and one of tizzards ,and the ascot race in the v.c chase when he was beaten by somersby where he was outpaced after the last ,also the arkle the general consensus was that he didnt get home but the way i see it may be he needed further and was outpaced by captain chris ,watch the reruns of those races with an open mind and see what you think .
he may have won the champ chase despite needing further but he is a classy horse and a bit of a late developer and i have looked into his breeding and this horse has got so much stamina in his bloodline that imo 3m + will be no problem and at 33s in the shops for a grade 1 winner rated 173 who handles the course jumps, travels,and can battle and has proved he gets 2.4 miles already its staring you in the face .
i may be well wide of the mark on this but at the prices was80s and 70s on here a while back i am happy to find out .
he may have won the champ chase despite needing further but he is a classy horse and a bit of a late developer and i have looked into his breeding and this horse has got so much stamina in his bloodline that imo 3m + will be no problem and at 33s in the shops for a grade 1 winner rated 173 who handles the course jumps, travels,and can battle and has proved he gets 2.4 miles already its staring you in the face .
i may be well wide of the mark on this but at the prices was80s and 70s on here a while back i am happy to find out .
Foyle availled myself of a wee bit circa 80s a month or two ago,I can see this one staying 3m+ ok,whether he can win what could be a vintage renewal with a exciting crop of UK+Irish 2nd season chasers time will tell,but at fancy prices and little/no chance of staying at 2m with SS on the scene its a no brainer as dont see the Ryanair as a realistic target.
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