Cheltenham Festival
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been looking for some value for the cheltenham 2013 festival races and al ferof looks to have been overlooked and is attractively priced at around 80s on here . a very smart hurdler who won the supreme novices hurdle from a very good field beating the likes of sprinter sacre ,spirit son ,cue card ect . he took to fences very well over 2-2.4 miles and was running a good race in the arkle leading sprinter sacre untill a horrendous mistake put paid to his chance leaving the way clear for sprinter sacre to win impressively , the cards had not been played up to that point and we dont know what would have happened if he had jumped fluently .
he then ran in the novice chase at aintree and although he ran well he was beaten by menorah ,the flat course would not have played to his strengths and he could well be suited by further and i expect him to stepped up in trip this season and think he could well develop into a gold cup horse . he certainly has the ability and has proved he can battle up the hill and 80s is far to big a price imo and should be taken . with p.nicholls old guard(denman , kauto ) either retired or getting on in years and silviniarco conte seemingly better on flatish tracks al ferof could well emerge as the champion trainers gold cup contender . have also put up finians rainbow for the race but no harm in having a few strings to your bow .good luck and input and discussion welcom.
he then ran in the novice chase at aintree and although he ran well he was beaten by menorah ,the flat course would not have played to his strengths and he could well be suited by further and i expect him to stepped up in trip this season and think he could well develop into a gold cup horse . he certainly has the ability and has proved he can battle up the hill and 80s is far to big a price imo and should be taken . with p.nicholls old guard(denman , kauto ) either retired or getting on in years and silviniarco conte seemingly better on flatish tracks al ferof could well emerge as the champion trainers gold cup contender . have also put up finians rainbow for the race but no harm in having a few strings to your bow .good luck and input and discussion welcom.
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Not a bad price but I think he's more likely to end up in the Ryanair.
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could be right regarding ryanaire mm but p.nicholls genuine gold cup contenders look a bit thin on the ground to me and with hendo breathing down his neck and he will surely want something to to represent him in the top staying races ,he will be going tooth and nail to retain his trainers championship so i can see silvino going for the king george and al ferof possibly going the gold cup route .al ferof has a staying pedigree by dom alco and owner john hales has said in an interveiw he regards al ferof as a gold cup horse so every chance he will go that route imo and could see him start off in maybe the betfair chase (just my opinion ). but to me he has always looked as tho a trip would suit and 80 for the win and 18 for a place looks too big for a horse of his potential and ability .
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I think he'll end up in the gold cup and be an awful lot shorter than 80. However I doubt he'll be good enough to win what looks already like a hot renewal. He has big questions to answer after his runs at Cheltenham and Aintree, though the latter probably wasn't his true running (perhaps because of his shuddering mistake in the Arkle). I'm not sure one can say he was running a good race in the Arkle when his race was over around half way. The problem for me is that he'll have to beat some tough stayers proven at the course (e.g. Bobs Worth) and some very classy looking 2nd season chasers (e.g. Sir des Champs, Flemensfirth, Last Installment) and I've seen nothing to make me think he'll be good enough. Of course he might improve a stone for the extra mile in which case he's right in the mix and he's with the master trainer which is a big positive. Overall, it's a decent bet because his price seems likley to shrink considerably - but for me it would be a bet to lay off at some stage.
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I would be going for the Ryanair if i was PN.
Very similar to Zarkander from the same stable, was crying out for a longer trip. Put a line through the Aintree race, as it may of been one race too many. |
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Will S.Conti be Gold Cup bound this year or will Nicholls just always keep him away from Cheltenham?
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bluebird think he will keep silviniaco to flat tracks and go for races like the betfair and king george and then possibly the martell at aintree he obviously seems to think he is better on flatish tracks as he missed cheltenham to wait for aintree.think he will train al ferof for the gold cup thats just my opinion tho.
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80s doesn't particularly interest me personally, but I may be a bit biased as I'm not a massive fan of Al Ferof.
I do think the bet could be interesting as a trade, since I think they will aim for the King George with him. If I remember right, this was the first thing Ruby said when he dismounted in the Victor Chandler and the horse could he run well there with doubts over Long Run and Kauto. Gold Cup is a different matter though - very hard for a second-season chaser and the Gold Cup picture looks stronger this year. I think Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar, Bob's Worth and First Lieutenant are all better than him. |
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am happy with that
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I bet you've been waiting to bump this thread up for ages
He certainly wasn't stopping today in really testing ground, and you're on to a nice little bet there Foyles. |
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how long did it take you to find this thread, or did you already have it ready
very well done , a lot to look forward to now, that betting slip will keep you warm this winter. |
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he defintely had it saved in his favourites, waiting for the perfect moment to press "post reply"
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had it ready just in case cheers duffy and chief , a long way to go yet but in a decent position !
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Well done OP, and also well done Budd for being such a staunch supporter of the horse - I hope you got paid today.
Looking at what finished, it's difficult to conclude he ran to much more than his handicap mark so he probably needs to improve further to figure in the KG/CGC - nevertheless, you are in a nice position with your bets. |
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cheers Stront,absolutely chuffed to bits for the horse.Just a small wager today,cos as Ive been saying i was concerned the Arkle had left a mark with that sort of mistake,and its great thats obviously not the case.
He set now to contest top races at 2 and half to 3. Have him at nice prices for the Gold Cup,but unfortunately not for the Ryanair,which is the race i think he will end up in.Still if he runs well at Kempton,that may change things. |
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50/50 I'd say Ryanair/Gold Cup. He wasn't stopping today and it may depend what else Nicholls has - there seem to be a few 2 1/2-3 mile types in the yard. I can also see Hales wanting another Gold Cup runner.
Do you see Kempton suiting him? |
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I think the natural progression would be the Imperial Commander route of Paddy Power > Kempton > Ryanair.
Because it was very testing ground today, it depends how long it takes for him to get over the race. There's always the Argento about 4 weeks later, which may suit him more, and be less of a demanding race before the Festival. |
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No mate,i thing hes a real Chelt horse,think the place really suits his style of running.
Kempton pretty much the opposite so i would not be confident about him being as good there. Mind you he did ran ok at Ascot,so i dont think the right handed bit would bother him. He just seems to be better on undulating courses,with good form at Chelt and Sandown. |
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I agree - he seems more about stamina than speed, so Kempton could be against him. The problem, therefore, is that a Kempton run may not tell us much about what his Festival target could/should be....
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Well hopefully,if he runs,the jockey will know after the race what his distance is.
At least that would be something achieved!! Personally i aint sure he should run in it,and maybe when they start thinking about it,he wont. |
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Yep. As WellChief says, the Argento might be more suitable. But Hales buys his horses to be raced.
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Also, those who were saying that last year's Arkle wasn't top class, I think Al Ferof and Cue Card have somewhat boosted the form.
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True
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think hes a gold cup horse myself (but then i would wouldnt i) the way way he travelled and jumped and powered up the hill ,walkon was up with him untill they met the hill and al ferof seemed to relish the hill and another 4-5 furlongs will help not hinder imo . dont think kempton will play to his strenghts and j.hales said in an interview about 6 months ago he thinks he is a gold cup horse . well done budd for keeping the faith not many did ,glad you backed it and i had a good bet myself ,not aftertiming said on the p.power thread yeasterday.
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He certainly wasn't stopping Foyles. Hales seems to be one of those owners who his more likely than some to get his way with Nicholls! Presumably they will want to give the horse some sort of race at 3 m+ first.
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anyone get ruby and p.nicholls comments after the race on t.v! got into a bit of a ruck with the missus and probably the neighbours shouting this one home ,the missus was on facebook and jumped out of her skin when i hollered it home after the last . had to buy her 3 bottles of wine to keep the peace , missed the after race comments .tia
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Sportinglife:
John Hales said: "That was a stunning performance, as good as from any horse I have owned. "The rain concerned me today, I wasn't as confident when I started looking at the race yesterday - I thought it was going to be difficult to give weight away to horses like Grands Crus. "I think we have decided we will go to the King George now, and he is a horse that we are going to have to look after." Sky Bet price Al Ferof at 6-1 to follow the path trod by his peerless and now-retired stablemate Kauto Star in the King George on Boxing Day, while Walsh said: "You need a bit of class in this race, which is why we were keen to take a chance. In fairness to him we were forcing him at two (miles). Stepping up in trip is probably what we should be doing. "He hasn't run since Aintree, turned up today with 11st 8lb on his back and does it - but he is a class horse at the end of the day." Nicholls is spoilt for choice for the for King George now. Al Ferof, Conti, Kauto Stone and Cristal Bonus. |
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^ and also for Gold Cup/Ryanair runners...
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not great news for me but nicholls is not afraid to run more than 1 in the gold cup ,heres hopeing
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Great price, well done. You'll see from this pasted blog piece, I'm hoping he goes for The Ryanair :)
I believe Al Ferof has a fine chance of winning the Paddy Power on Saturday. If he does he'll be close to favourite for the Ryanair over half a furlong farther in March. His Cheltenham record has been blotted only by his poor run behind Sprinter Sacre in this year's Arkle when he made a horrendous mistake four out (sweated up beforehand too). Mr Nicholls can rarely resist the temptation of taking his Cheltenham runners to Aintree when in my opinion, many should be rested (he's not the only trainer whose common sense is holed below the waterline by the lure of huge prize money). Anyway, he boxed up Al Ferof and took him there where he ran a lifeless race. Prior to his festival outing, he'd run a really good race for a novice in the Victor Chandler; he lined up there with just two fencing runs behind him and ended the race with his best ever RPR of 163 for finishing 3rd. He won a very good Supreme last year beating Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card and is a high class horse with a strong liking for this track and an excellent record on good to soft which looks likely for Saturday and is always favourite for the festival in March. I like Grand Crus but I suspect he is a wee bit soft. Al Ferof could come late and battle him out of it in the Paddy Power. Take the 16s now for the Ryanair. If you get the ante-post yips over the winter, you can always lay it off at half the price! Good luck |
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well done steeple and good luck with the ryanaire just cant see nicholls or hales resisting the lure of the gold cup, but who knows .thought he may have gone ryanaire with cristal bonus or kauto stone but we will see might lay some off for a big green just to be on the safe side .
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I'm also on Al Ferof at fancy prices for the Gold Cup; trying to decide whether to lay some off as all I keep hearing is connections mentioning the Ryanair. He was so impressive on Saturday that surely the Gold Cup must be strongly considered
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yeah blubird was thinking the same myself but am holding off for a few weeks and will reveiw the situation then ,owner john hales said earlier in the season that her thought al ferof was a gold cup horse , but does he mean this season or next ? also they have said they will look after him ? p.nicholls will surely want something in the gold cup ,but he does have silvinio conte although last season he said he was more an aintree type but this season they are talking gold cup !confused? you will be ! feck me sherlock holmes would have trouble working trainers plans out.
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tom segal (pricewisye) writing in the weekender today very impressed with al ferofs performance in the paddy power and thinks he is a major player in the gold cup if they go for it! indeed he thinks they should skip the king george and go for the gold cup,he reckons silvinio conte more the king george horse of the 2
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Can't see him taking to Kempton myself; like Bobsworth last year he could be a bigger price than he should be after a Kempton Xmas run
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I don't see why Kempton would be a problem for him.
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his best runs have been at cheltenham imo,supreme,paddy power, think he may be better left handed, won by small margin at sandown and beaten at ascot albeit by somersby and finians ,thats not to say he wont win or run well at kempton just think cheltenham suits .
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We'll see how the King George goes first, but if he were mine I'd definitely be favouring the Gold Cup. I have little doubt he'd stay the extra distance. Will be interesting to see who Walsh picks for Kempton. I imagine if Silviniaco Conti wins on Saturday he'll pick him; otherwise he'll probably favour Al Ferof.
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Ringing in my ear is Ruby's "this is a King George horse" comment straight after the January G1 Ascot Victor Chandler Chase when Al Ferof came 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow. Ruby doesnt often say too much but he was really clear about the KG for Al Ferof.
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yeah i think he will go king george my dilema is will he go gold cup after ?
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