First dabble for next year.....anyone

yes i have played on here , silviniaco conte at 38s king george ,time for rupert 170 win and 27 to place gold cup and sanctuaire 14.5 to win and 3.5 to place queen mother chase and am currently looking at a few more at decent prices .good luck.

I normally put on a few Lucky 15's straight after the festival to keep me going over the summer.  This year I've stuck to singles, because I'm trying to reduce my festival multiples because they very rarely come off.

Ones I've backed are:

Spirit Son - Champion Hurdle
Last Instalment (e/w) - Gold Cup
Sir Des Champs - Gold Cup
Sprinter Sacre - Champion Chase
Cotton Miill - Champion Hurdle
Oscar Whisky - Champion Hurdle (laid that off at a shorter price incase he goes chasing)

I won't say what prices I've got on them because I'll get accused of either a) showing off, or b) lying!

I'm leaving all novice races until Christmas at the earliest.  So hard to predict where they will go.

Here's my AP book

Fly / Sprinter 3pts @ 19/1
Sir Des 3pts @ 10/1
Sir Des/Fly/Spriter 1pt @ 157/1

Fly 5pts @    6/1
Darlan 0.5pt @ 23/1
Zarkander    1pt @ 14/1

Boston Bob/Simonsig    1pt @ 54/1
Boston Bob 2pts @ 10/1
Boston Bob/Sprinter 1pt @ 24/1


Riverside Theatre 1pt @ 25/1 - Gold Cup

Trifolium 1pt @ 25/1  - Arkle

1pt Win Grands Crus, 22/1 - Gold Cup. No way was it stamina that beat this grey missile in the RSA. One bad run does not a bad horse make. Reminds me of a Kicking King - lots of natural ability but slight doubts about his stamina in some quarters. I think he's just a rhythm horse, and if the ground is good or good to soft, he'll coast round and show everyone that last season was a one-off blip.

1/2pt win Binocular, 33/1 - Champion Hurdle. A value bet as much as anything, as I don't understand why he is five times the price of Hurricane Fly. Both have achieved similar things, both are exceptional when 100% right, and this year's race showed me they are very similar in ability. Also, don't particularly like the novices this season, so looks way too big to me.

Agree with you re Grands Crus Tom, but I don't want to open up a big debate over will he / won't he stay. 

My view is that I think he will be campaigned for the Gold Cup whether people like it or not, and if he does run well in the King George, which people expect him to do, then he won't be a 22/1 shot after Christmas.

Either way I think it is a good trading oppurtunity, with the proviso that he runs well in the King George.

I'm so tempted to back him and Long Run in the Gold Cup, but I already have two (above).  I might wait and see if Laddies do the early NRNB again and see what price they go for both of them.

At the moment, the Ryanair is one of the races I am most looking forward to.  With the prospect of new boys like Finians, Cue Card, Champion Court and maybe even Sizing; I can't wait for someone to price this up.  I can see Finians being priced up as AP favourite, but I'm really interested in Cue Card at a bigger price.

Binocular fans stick with him till the end. Sorry Tom, he is never ever winning another champion hurdle. Fly lost 1 race, Bpig has lost tons.

I was not wildly impressed with the Supreme and suspect Simon and Oscar will go over fences.

I think it is too soon to write off HF and I think Zarkander can improve to 6, though it is my mind that he is a stayer (could be wrong here). I could see Zarkander starting fav for this. I suspect ROR will be on the premises. This may not have been the best champion ever, but he has lots of upside IMO.

Regarding Binocular, I know I have been a vocal supporter and long time excuse-maker (understatement...) for this enigmatic horse but i suspect conections will not think his chances entirely gone. I'll explain -

I think Binocular was given a ride this yr that utterly backfired. I think they thought HF was the one to beat (who didn't?) but AP ended up tracking a horse who had an off day (or something) and Binoc was way too far back to win in a race which happened up front. Nevertheless, i think there may be reasons to be optimistic. I am pretty certain connections feel the wind op prior to Wincanton has helped quite a bit. I think they were very confident before the Champion. It did not work out but I suspect they do not blame the horse as 'not good enough' now. The Wincanton run can be shot to pieces form-wise, but he exuded real class that day. I think they recognise the pre-planned ride in the Champion backfired. I suspect the Kempton beating of ROR makes them think this was a Champion that possibly got away from them. NJH has only ever essentially trained this horse for 1 race a yr once it became apparent he was a Champion horse after his novice season. I suspect they think the Champion run can be written off and they do have him 'back' thanks to the wind op. Therefore i imagine a similar routine - Newcastle (which is never more than a day out for him), Kempton (where he is straight enough) and a prep to have him spot on. I think if they can have him back in A1 form, they will think he has another shot, and i think  he would be a major player. There is no doubt in my mind that the best of Binocular is better than last yr's winner.

I think he would be a player but I am not totally sure he could win another (i would dearly love him to), he's had his chances and to prevail in the biggest race, having disappointed a few times elsewhere, it does seem a little unlikely now.

That said, I think the trainer stables the winner anyhow, if he comes back, in the machine (IMO) that is Spirit Son. I've had been backing him for a while and will continue to.

CVB - Binocular fans stick with him till the end. - it is true! Always is with love at first sight!

CVB - you have to judge a horse off it's best form not it's defeats.  Bino's CH still the best, unlucky not to have won three of them.  That heavy ground loving Irish horse won a very weak renewal when he was very lucky that the best hurdler in training was withdrawn.  NEITHER of them win it next year ay aged 9, get used to that fact now.

I've got small stakes on so far on Flem, LI, TGB Gold Cup and Sanctuaire CC.  Not on SDC because of price as all about value for me, can see SDC being a King George horse and may play there instead.

Agree with most of what has been said above, especially R Carver's reasoning. In my heart I suspect Bino will be unlikely to win another Champion and believe with better luck, better tactics etc that he really ought to have won more than the one he has on his CV.

To say he can't win next year is silly, though. I think the reason Binocular fans will stand by him despite reverses is because this is a horse who can be brilliant on his day when things do drop right. He actually has a better record than you'd think at the highest level based on the criticism he gets. Given a good prep, suitable conditions, and a good ride, he could win another Champion next term. And, at 33s, I think he offers some value - he shouldn't be five times the price of Hurricane Fly, whose star is certainly not shining as brightly as it was back in February.

Binocular would have won no Champion Hurdles if Fly had made Cheltenham that year.

Anyway, Ruby thought Fly was lethargic at Cheltenham, AP said Binocular was flat out a long way. No excuse made, the horse isn't good enough and we need to accept his Champion Hurdle race fell apart with Solwhit sick and Go Native getting injured early meaning nothing left to beat.

Anyway, I think he can't win next year and I'm certainly not backing him like I did this year. Will defo lay him in Fighting Fifth and back in Christmas hurdle though. Good horse, just not great.

Fair enough - you are probably right, I just think the price differential is huge.

I'll never listen to jockey opinions when weighing up races though - Ruby is a great jockey but a shocking loser. There is always something amiss when one of his big ones doesn't fire. Hurricane may well have been flat this time gone, but his Champion Hurdle was just as weak from a form perspective (Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whisky and Menorah have hardly suggested it was a top-notch renewal). I'm not one to crab horses, especially when they have won championship events as you can only ever beat what's in front of you, but think it is at least as fair to question the merit of Hurricane Fly's biggest win as it is that of Binocular's.

No he isn't probably right!  You only have to look at the comparative race times to see that HF's CH was one of the weakest ever.  The fact PC has never got close to a high mark in any other race he has run tells you that too. HF was flat  in the CH because it was the first time he had ever been asked to race at championship speed on decent ground! 

Raceform Speed figures show the 2011 renewal to be the joint slowest  of the last 10 years along with Sublimity's.   Topspeed show's it up as the 2nd slowest of the last 10 just ahead of Sublimity's and the 4th slowest of the last 22, ahead only of Sublimity's,Hors da Loi's and Granville Again's renewals! 

The following table is derived from top speed and converted to l/m on the raceform scale (an exercise I did some time back to enable me to study 2 decades of data for major races rather than just 7 or 8 years that raceform had then been compiling speed figures in that way and which I keep up to date)

2006 Brave Inca        124
1998 Istabraq        123
2012 Rock On Ruby    121
1990 Kribensis        120
2010 Binocular        119
2003 Rooster Booster    119
1996 Collier Bay    119
1995 Alderbrook        119
1991 Morley Street    119
1997 Make A Stand    118
1992 Royal Gait        118
2008 Katchit        116
2009 Punjabi        115
2004 Hardy Eustace    115
1999 Istabraq        115
2005 Hardy Eustace    114
2000 Istabraq        114
1994 Flakey Dove    114
2011    Hurricane Fly    112
2007 Sublimity        111
2002 Hors La Loi III    111
1993 Granville Again    111

The thing about Flys win was is was just one of a huge run of brilliant performances, while Binoculars was an upset really. Fly has always looked brilliant until this season and Binocular rarely has. Whether Fly actually bounces back is totally unknown, he looked a shadow of the horse he was on his last 2 starts so it's total guesswork if he comes back to the form he showed last year. But he can, while Binocular has lost far too many races to be given another chance, there is a never ending string of excuses for the horse, he isn't getting another chance from me especially when McCoy thinks he ran to form at Cheltenham.

Thieves I have utterly zero interest in ratings, speed figures or any of that at all when it regards championship races.

Hisaabaat CH @ 115
QDR       GC @ 85
KS place  GC @ 29     

Favourite horse , miracle cure , 5s a runner .

CVB,the man who quotes the official idiot's ratings every third post has no interest in ratings. Makes me LOL every time.  I was referring to TIMES of races, the ratings I gave are merely a numerical representation of those times thatshow HF to be one of the slowest CH winners ever.  One of "a string of brilliant performances" where he beat the very ordinary Pedlers Cross once and beat Solwhit 37 times on the trot on heavy ground.

Binocular has not had a straightforward career, he has disappointed, but he has had more than 1 peak effort. His novice runs were top class. He has had several excellent efforts since. IMO he should have won more than 1 Champion.

I do not like knocking jockey's but I am sceptical about much of what Ruby and AP often say. I understand it is hard to be measured when a mic is thrust at you in the aftermath of a defeat, however.

Regarding jockey's views post-race - I do not think Ruby is always great in defeat (few are) but I have known none more sour than AP. Maybe he is trying to set them up for JP later down the line, or fool the handicapper, but whenever AP speaks, I take it with a pinch of salt. He has a reputation for being ultra-critical on himself, and this is fine, but to my mind he applies the same standards to his rides and quite often it just sounds stupid.

He gave Darlan a bad ride in the Supreme IMO (I know he had fallen LTO and maybe needed some space butit reminded me of the ride on Dunguib) but when the horse struggled to victory (when under-cooked) when winning its novice there late in 2011, he said maybe the horse is not so good and looked as if someone had killed his cat. Way too critical and unmeasured. The horse was good enough to win the Supreme with a better ride IMO. He gave Binocular a bad ride in the Champion IMO (maybe a good ride would not have been good enough on the day, but his ride certainly did not help IMO). As soon as I heard the 'flat to the boards' comment, I was doubtful - it sounded like some kind of after te fact justification to me. As I say, maybe i should give him te benefit of te doubt generally or maybe just accept that he is right and I am wrong, but I suspect if he was given te ride again, knowing what he knows now, he would not ride it in the same manner.

He often says he loves Binocular, but if it is true that you sometimes need to hurt the ones you love, he does it in spades!

^ Agree with this completely. I also think Binocular's effort was not as bad as some are suggesting given that he didn't finish far behind Hurricane Fly despite giving him two lengths or so throughout the race (and I do agree, that both of them gave too much to good horses, whether they ran below par or not) and nearly crashing out at the last.

Last I will say on this as it seems I am hijacking a good thread with my own ramblings about Binocular. The last thing I would say is that I am not the kind of punter (anymore!) who follows horses over cliffs. The reason I will stick up for this one, who admittedly does require more excuses than most, is because I believe he has physical issues that often flare up and prevent him from running to his best. When they are absent he can be brilliant and for that reason he will always represent value at certain prices against any opposition.

Ratings are how the official handicapper judges a race thieves, I'm using the same concept to explain why the Gold Cup was the worst since the 90s. I don't care about official ratings with regards to a horses chances of winning a race unless it's a Handicap. I have backed Sir Des Champs after all who's rating is probably in the high 150s or something, I don't care.

But the thing I give utterly no credence to what so ever are times. They are totally and utterly useless in NH racing and it's flat people trying to apply one idea from that sphere to jumps. It doesn't work.

What a horse has beat and my judgement on his potential are all that matter to me.

As for Hurricane Fly he beat Binocular, and plenty others on the bit at Punchestown. But look people can knock any horse, sure people knocked Kauto Star after all. This is betfair forums an utter sesspool of vitriol and bad opinions. If a horse who wins 10 grades 1s and only suffers a single defeat is one of the worst Champion Hurdle winners ever they you have to laugh.

It's clear thieves you just love Binocular and his fan club are rather a unique band of supporters. The horse will have to be retired before anyone gives up on him.

People like RC, tomdeane, bud, Steeplechasing etc.. are people who's opinions I'd actually rate as they have a track record of decent opinions on here. You still make me laugh with you're amount of postings since joining in Jan.

I agree with you tom with the line "I am not the kind of punter (anymore!) who follows horses over cliffs" while once I'd battle tooth and nail with all and sundry on here defending Kauto, Fly, Big Zeb... and their cheltenham chances. Sometimes their time is up and I'm far quicker now to admit when that is. Despite Kauto even proving his staunch supporter wrong one last time this season

Bottom line is, I gave up with Zeb this season after Tied Cottage Chase, he clearly was a shodow of the old horse and had no chance of beating Sizing Europe.

Similarily I cannot be but unimpressed by Hurricane Fly at Punchestown, he looks like a shadow of the horse he was to my eyes. I cannot simply assume with a full season of racing he'll come back to himself at the age of 9. If he is not showing the same sparkle in his first 3 runs before Cheltenham then I'll have to be pragmatic about it.

I suppose it's this attitude which makes me a little baffled by Binocular supporters, I had backed him for the last 3 champion hurdles, traded out of the bet the year he won, had nrnb the year he didn't run and lost this year. But I am a supporter I have backed him in 3 christmas hurdles, I like the horse but am certain he simply isn't up to winning a Champion Hurdle again 3 years after he last won it.

He is the ultimate cliff horse imo, so many supporters who never ever give up making excuses. It's amazing really.

something i have learned over the years is not to get emotionally attached to horses  who have served me  well (won me decent  money ) in the past , its easy to have a bias for horses that have won you large sums of money and a kind of bond or connection  can  emerge that you unconciously  feel you should not desert the horse (after all he has done you a big favour  and won you big money ,may be feel you owe him something so stick with him ) and you can find yourself coming up with reasons( although your judgement may be clouded by the financial /emotional bonding ) to justify sticking with the horse. to me the whole issue has to be  about the price and is it value . this is just  my opinion but  it has served me well in the past.

Hi CVB, I do confess a love for Binocular and I also admit the excuses are getting thinner and thinner. I've been a staunch supporter of the horse and do think he has at times had very legit excuses (I'll always maintain the trainer only trains him for 1 race a yr really) but I've also confronted the possibility that if you have to keep making excuses or keep finding angles to support a horse's chances, maybe there is something more problamtic going on. Hope springs eternal I suppose and if he lines up in the same sort of form this March as he appeared to be last March (I lknow the Wincanton run was dodgy), all things being equal I would make him a genuine player (i.e., not a certain winner), though as I say, I think S Son is the one who is unexposed.

Hi Foyles - you are right IMO. Emotional attachment is fine as long as it does not colour your betting. I think it does to us all to a greater or lesser degree.

Some degree of emotional attachment is almost inevitable for National Hunt fans. It's seeing the individual horses develop over many years that makes it such an attractive sport. I'm sure there are gamblers on here who are totally detached and see the racing purely as a betting medium, but for me it's primarily a sport with some betting attached. Unlike flat racing, which is the other way round. I rarely mind losing a bet to an impressive performance because I enjoy seeing good horses run well.

That said, even I try to avoid following a horse off the cliff (which is why I didn't back Tidal Bay last weekend.....)

Same here Strontium. I would still go up and down the country watchin NH racing if betting was banned. Meanwhile, I'd hardly open the curtains to watch a flat race, betting or no betting.

just went in again on spirit son....i must be mad

Agree about the fly re emotional betting etc , doubt I will be lumping on him this year but will still wear my scarf as I did for the Tuesday and Wednesday even though he lost.

Currently i am attempting to build a stake on sdc and ss - also have a l15 of bigb , bb rsa , ss and sdc - not originalbut still pays a decent sum .

Has anyone ever done the panoramic seats at chelt ? Are they any good ?

have just added finians rainbow gold cup to my list  at 70s to win and 18.5 to place ,see my finians gold cup thread   for reasons, good luck with yours

SN - not sure what you man by the Panoramic seats. The ones on levels 3 and 4 of the Grandstand?

I've never done them for the Festival because they're pretty expensive but Members get to use them at some of the lesser meetings. The view is fantastic from up there - the best I've found at the racecourse. Plus I understand you have a particular reserved seat at the Festival which has obvious advantages. The downside could be it's quite a battle to get to and from the betting ring from up there, though they're reasonably convenient for the paddock.

Yes that is what I mean strontium - thanks for the reply - think I may treat my wife for nyd if we make the meet . I Do like the idea of different views from the course - attended two meets now over 4 days and usually view from only 2 spots. Quite like the idea of viewing a race from the middle of the course aswell - have you ever done that ?

The only downside I can imagine is that  I tend to get a bit involved if my horse is going well!!!!!!!!!!!

SN - I quite often watch the cross country races from the middle of the course because you can get pretty close to the action and the horses come past you several times. I actually watched the Champion Chase from there as well this year (by the fence where Wishfull Thinking fell). You can't see much of the race apart from the horses jumping the fence you stand by, so at a normal meeting you are totally dependent on the commentary (which you can hear clearly). You've no real idea what's happening in the finish. At the Festival you may also be able to use the second big screen depending on exactly where you stand. The thing you can see from the centre of the course that you can't see anywhere else is the reaction (surge) of the crowd in the Grandstand in a close finish. It's probably better to watch a race on the new course from the centre because you're closer to the action. Overall, I'd recommend everyone does it at least once - for the sound the horses make galloping up the track and for the sight of a chaser jumping a fence at pace.

As we're discussing this, can anyone suggest any courses where you get a particularly good view from by the fences - I find it varies a lot (e.g. Cheltenham and Newbury poor, Kempton impossible, Sandown, Fontwell, Towcester very good).

Thanks for the comments once again . I have only been to Wetherby and Cheltenham jumps and York flat. Defo want to get to a few new spots but I imagine Cheltenham is the best !

im keeping spirit son onside as im not impressed with last years champion hurdle.
sprinter sacre,qmum,as we are all hoping hes as good as he looks.
arkle-my fav race-tho simonsig looks worthy of being short im happy to take 20s tonight on arvike legionaire.This horse was unlucky not to have lined up last year,won easily tonight and jumped well.Who knows what distance he will end up over,could run in any nov chase but 20s is too big for now.

Large double

Big Bucks 7/4
Quevega 1/1



just pay me now!

have added al ferof gold cup at 85s  on here for a few sheckles ,bit of a speculative one but it looked too big to me shapes as though he will stay and should trade a good deal lower in the run up to the race  all being well,

Gone in on quite a few early doors, small stakes but good fun getting a big priced winner you picked a year ago...most chuffed with the Gold Cup book, SDC backed before his Jewson win this year.

Champion Hurdle  Cinders and Ashes 1pt 20\1
             Spirit Son 1pt 20\1

Gold Cup Bobs Worth 2pts 12\1
     Sir Des Champs 1pt 33\1
     Last Installment 1pt 33\1
     Imperial Commander 0.25 pts e/w 66\1

RSA Chase Brindisi Breeze 1pt 14\1

Champ Chase Sanctuaire 1pt e/w 50\1

That looks a terrific book Chad - well done.

added cue card  about 6 weeks ago at 110 and 100s and 18s for a  place for the king george bit of a speculative one  as he may stay over 2-2.4 miles but nothing to lose trying 3m and you dont know untill you try em !but he is classy  travels and 3m could suit around kempton ,the  110 and 100s was far too big. for a horse of his calbre .

Already bet

CH - Grandouet 12/1 20win
GC - Fleminstar 12/1 20win
                     20double

bet i am putting on but not sure with who,still looking for overall best prices.

LUCKY 31 to a pound

Grandouet
Fleminstar
Fingal Bay - RSA
Dom Cossack - Supreme
Arvike Legionaire - Arkle

These five all missed Cheltenham for different reasons and taking big leap of faith they all make it this time round.I have backed them because of potential rather than what they achieved.

Best of luck with your selections , be great for one of our bets to bash em.

Back to the Binocular debate if i may.

Most on here know i am a big fan of the horse,but i would not be afraid to say if i felt he could no longer do it.

The fact is that in this years CH he was ridden badly and hit the last.I am convinced had he not hit the last he would have at least got 3rd.
Had he been ridden more prominently as he has in every other race hes contested i am equally convinced he would have gone very close,and given his form with ROR,its not beyond to say he would have won.

Therefore i give him another go next year and current odds imo should be taken.

Agree Bud, that 44 does seem big for Binocular, but when he loses the fighting Fifth as usual, you may get bigger after that.

Can't really see him winning myself, but there doesn't seem to be much strength from last years novices; but I suppose we won't be sure of that until they race in open company.  I think the winner will come from Hurricane Fly, Spirit Son or Grandouet.

Peddlers Cross would interest me back over hurdles, but there is always the option for the World Hurdle, so couldn't back him.

Since this thread was started, the only one I have added to my list was Tataniano to place in the Champion Chase.  He's in the 90's to win, so may not come back from injury, but I still think he has the ability to finish in the top 3, especially if Finians is stepped up in trip.

Yeh, i would not argue their are more likely winners,but should Bino line up next March,he wont be 44/1 !!

Definitely.  I looked on Oddschecker, and then had to double check Betfair because I thought he'd be in the low 20's.

At the moment I think the winner will come from one that raced in this years race, or from Spirit Son or Grandouet

He probably should be Budd.

Thing is Stront,he will probably win at Xmas.

He's never had a bad run at the festival as far as i recall,and even when his jockey did his best to ruin his chances this year,he still could have placed.As i said earlier his form with ROR suggests to me he would not have been far away with a more prominent ride.

His price is too big lads.

thing is, he'll be 9 and it'll be 3 years since he won it. he appears to be declining. it's asking a massive amount for a horse to regain its top form so long after its peak. History shows us these championship races are won by up and coming horses, not by old stagers regaining former glories. I would also add he look beaten fair and square to me this year - possibly AP misjudged the opposition by tracking Ruby but few excuses.

Good old Binocular! And the good old Binocular debate!

I love him and do think the 44 is too big. I agree with Strontium's point - you wouldn't expect a horse to regain a championship title three years on from his big win, and the excuses are stacking up for a horse not getting any younger. However, my angle with Binocular is always the same - I'm convinced he struggles with physical issues and think this has been backed up by connections never quite knowing what to expect. His Wincanton win was nothing to write home about in terms of form, but his swagger was back on that occasion and to my eye it was absent at Cheltenham again. Despite this he still ran well given the pattern of the race. I would always be a backer at 44s on the chance that he will arrive at Cheltenham in great nick, because I honestly believe there are very few who have the natural ability that he has.

Am also being swayed by Spirit Son's case, although I think the price is too short based on the bare level of his form. I actually like the fact that he missed a whole season rather than coming back half-cooked last term, as I don't think the injury was ever too serious but connections' patience indicates how highly they rate him in a stable loaded with two-mile talent. Aintree form is always a nightmare to judge, but a hammering of Cue Card and Rock On Ruby does look mighty good now!

On another note, FOYLESWAR, I think the 18 for a place on Cue Card in the King George could well be a shrewd bit of business.

One last point on the Binocular angle, as it also applies to lots of other horses we all discuss.

I think we sometimes spend too long ironing out the precise merits of form performances in the build-up to Cheltenham. It is obviously the logical starting point, and I would never advocate an approach based purely on subjectivity. However, it is time we accept that virtually all trainers gear their horses to peak in March these days, which means pegging some horses down for scraping home in trials might well be unwise.

We saw Finian's and Bobs Worth come on hugely in March, which was no surprise to some, but many wrote them off due to prior runs despite knowing they had the ability to perform much better when it mattered. The same is true with past performances; so many people use Binocular's Champion Hurdle form to tie his ability down because it didn't look a great renewal. That may be true, but he travelled, jumped and quickened in the manner of a real top-notcher that day and I think he would have beaten most winners of the race on that occasion, such was his authority.

It also works the other way; horses that have hard races or are overtrained for the Festival often disappoint only to come back bigger and better the following season. For that reason I wouldn't write off the likes of Long Run from regaining his Gold Cup crown. I am a firm believer that we rarely see horses regain championship titles because the competition is so hot, and it takes a lot to get a horse to Cheltenham at its very best on more than one occasion. I think the up-and-coming angle might be overplayed a tad. Put it this way, if a former winner arrives at Cheltenham in the same shape as when he first won a championship race, I would not hesitate to get behind him/her, even if the title had been lost in between.

What has cotton mill done to say he has any chances in the champ hurdle??

PS/ If Binocular wins the champion hurdle next year ill show my ars e off in the centaur

Howdi - re Cotton Mill - not a lot, but I do think he's overpriced. He travelled like a quality horse in the Neptune before he ran out, then again at Aintree where he didn't stay 3 m. I'm sure he would have finished second in the Neptune had he not run out, behind the mighty Simonsig who is going chasing. I like 2 1/2 m novices for the Champion and Neptune performers have a great record in the CH. Add to that the Supreme didn't look great imo, and not many from this year's Champion are likely to challenge again... plus his trainer doesn't have any chasers (yet) so he may stay hurdling... Overall, I think it's an interesting bet at a big price.

Sront,9 aint too old for a horse to win a CH.
Yes of course one or two of the younger brigade may be better now,but from what i saw of Bino last season it did not look to me a declining horse.
Still convinced his best form - which i still think hes capable of- would see him a big threat come March.

And if he were to win,we could all get to see Howdi in all his glory


Oh dear!!!

That would be worth seeing.

I agree 9 isn't too old but it would be unusual - only 3 winners aged 9+ in the last 30 years. More important for me is that he doesn't look as good as he was and he has another full season to go before the race. He was right at the top 3 and 4 years before the race in question and very few can stay right at the top for so long.

I think his current price on here is a fair reflection of his chances - but mercurial is the word for him - he possibly is still capable of a bit of brilliance on his day.

Regarding first dabbles - I've had to small stakes on here for the Gold Cup both The Minack and Mossey Joe.  The Minack because seems like PFN has brought him along slowly and not overfaced him, and still improving, however not sure about left handed tracks suit?  Mossey Joe is just a hunch that the Good ground will really suit and looked classy on that ground.  Please feel free to pull me apart.

couldnt pull you apart for those selections as who would have said this time last year synchronised and the giant bolster would be 1-2 in the gold cup ,as we are all aware  horses  can improve stones,look at that ex  handicapper who improved 80 odd pound  and won at the festival . at this stage almost anything is possible .

Binoclar continues to be a horse that divides opinion,here is mine for what its worth.


1st festival 2008-2nd behind Captain Cee Bee(didnt go through with his effort.

2nd festival 2009-3rd to Punjabi ????????

3rd festival 2010-beat Khyber kim(3 1/2L) ???????

2011 missed festival.

4th festival-2012-4th to ROR beat 6L.

Those bits of form are all that matters with this horse,so 2013 wouldnt give it a snowball chance with Spirit son+grandouet also back on the scene,so if its 40.0+ on here makes no odds the horse is deteriorating from the MODEST heights that it reached in 2010,now the ratings argument for it after its CH win doesnt stand up with KK being no great shakes and the 3rd Zaynar need I say more.

Let this obsession with this horse go your argument for me doesnt stand up.

I will also show my butt(on the stage risking the jail)in the Centaur if this horse does the bizzo.

Oh and if JP is reading this might be best to give Cheltenham a miss with this odd ball this year.Listen to your trainer thats what you pay them for.

^ hunt ball the ex handicapper ^

Eh ! have I missed something.

Sprinter Sacre QMCC

Big Bucks WH

Quevega DNMOR

Sir Des Champs GC

Trifolium Arkle

Oscars Well Arkle

Zarkander CH

Darlan CH

Grumeti CH

First 3 all wrapped up in singles/Doubles and Trebles..All the rest in small singles..Hope they all turn up is the early battle..

No value in the AP market on fancied horses.

I've had a little bit on Grandouet for the CH and Cue Card for the Ryanair but I don't suppose they will be any shorter come November than they are now.

Thanks for you opinion Chelters,for what it was worth.

I will have mine if thats ok.

Dont see a lot wrong with his Festival form to be honest,guess it depends how you look at it.
2nd in a supreme as a 4yr old behind a much stronger 7yr old who turned out a pretty good horse despite injuries/setbacks.
Very close 3rd in the CH as a 5yr old,pretty good imo.
Then won the race pretty easily with more in the locker to my eye.
No idea what would have happened when he missed the race.
Then fairly close up behind a horse he beat earlier in the season,despite  being given a poor ride,plus he hit the last hurdle pretty badly.

Not an obsession mate,just an honest assestment of the horse and an opinion that current odds are bigger than they should be.

Bud no disrespect meant. Seldom has a horse divided opinion so much. Its form doesnt reflect the status I feel in which some hold it.

Your point of CCB being a 7yo in the Supreme seems to stand up but what was behind Bino- Snap Tie,Kalahari King etc so it wasnt a vintage renewal and with injuries CCB isnt much of a yardstick and if one doesnt rate this piece of form the rest of his Cheltenham form isnt stratospheric and hence my grave doubt if his ability remains intact, he is quirky and couldnt be backed in any race let alone a Championship race with any certainty.

As I say again I wasnt being dismissive of your view as IM sure(1.01 nap)your knowledge of racing is greater than my humble efforts. I enjoy your posts and find them both interesting and informative but on this one I dont agree,cheers Bud.

No worries mate,you would not be the first i have differed in opinions with!!

Binocular is certainly a horse that brings out a lot of different opinions,probably due to his somewhat quirky nature you alluded to,and thats fair enough. I am a big fan of the horse,but even i am very careful when backing him,and really the only time i do back him is at the festival when hes usually decent odds,and hes pretty certain to run his race.
Other times of the year he is unreliable,although xmas hes ok,but odds are normally rather cramped due to small field.
I will always give him another chance at the festival all the time he shows me enough that he aint past it.
This year i thought he was very unlucky,so will stick with him as an interesting outsider.
Cheers to you too Chelters.

I am not a Binocular fan whatsoever, think he is for the most part massively overated bar 1 good win. That said i could nt blame anyone for backin him at the current price on here as it does seem a bit on the big side to me

It is strange that he is now 50/1 on here for the Champion Hurdle.

I'm half tempted to have a couple of quid, because would always be able to lay off at a much shorter price on the day.  Even if he doesn't win the Fighting Fifth or the Xmas Hurdle, I could never see him being sent off more than the 12/1 - 16/1 mark for the Champion.

I wonder if all is well with him?  JP has Darlan, so they'll probably run Binocular over 3 miles to drop his handicap, so he is "thrown in" the County Hurdle!

Im sure i read a quote from Henderson saying they may go novice chasing?