Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
ok i know its 10 months away but couldnt resist a small flutter...got spirit son at 12s CH ,boston bob at 10s RSA and Last installment at 20s for GC.........EW singles , doubles and treble......its mad but what the hell for small money .....anyone else admit to anything yet....best of luck to all
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 66
|
By:
yes i have played on here , silviniaco conte at 38s king george ,time for rupert 170 win and 27 to place gold cup and sanctuaire 14.5 to win and 3.5 to place queen mother chase and am currently looking at a few more at decent prices .good luck.
|
|
By:
I normally put on a few Lucky 15's straight after the festival to keep me going over the summer. This year I've stuck to singles, because I'm trying to reduce my festival multiples because they very rarely come off.
Ones I've backed are: Spirit Son - Champion Hurdle Last Instalment (e/w) - Gold Cup Sir Des Champs - Gold Cup Sprinter Sacre - Champion Chase Cotton Miill - Champion Hurdle Oscar Whisky - Champion Hurdle (laid that off at a shorter price incase he goes chasing) I won't say what prices I've got on them because I'll get accused of either a) showing off, or b) lying! I'm leaving all novice races until Christmas at the earliest. So hard to predict where they will go. |
|
By:
Here's my AP book
Fly / Sprinter 3pts @ 19/1 Sir Des 3pts @ 10/1 Sir Des/Fly/Spriter 1pt @ 157/1 Fly 5pts @ 6/1 Darlan 0.5pt @ 23/1 Zarkander 1pt @ 14/1 Boston Bob/Simonsig 1pt @ 54/1 Boston Bob 2pts @ 10/1 Boston Bob/Sprinter 1pt @ 24/1 Riverside Theatre 1pt @ 25/1 - Gold Cup Trifolium 1pt @ 25/1 - Arkle |
|
By:
1pt Win Grands Crus, 22/1 - Gold Cup. No way was it stamina that beat this grey missile in the RSA. One bad run does not a bad horse make. Reminds me of a Kicking King - lots of natural ability but slight doubts about his stamina in some quarters. I think he's just a rhythm horse, and if the ground is good or good to soft, he'll coast round and show everyone that last season was a one-off blip.
1/2pt win Binocular, 33/1 - Champion Hurdle. A value bet as much as anything, as I don't understand why he is five times the price of Hurricane Fly. Both have achieved similar things, both are exceptional when 100% right, and this year's race showed me they are very similar in ability. Also, don't particularly like the novices this season, so looks way too big to me. |
|
By:
Agree with you re Grands Crus Tom, but I don't want to open up a big debate over will he / won't he stay.
My view is that I think he will be campaigned for the Gold Cup whether people like it or not, and if he does run well in the King George, which people expect him to do, then he won't be a 22/1 shot after Christmas. Either way I think it is a good trading oppurtunity, with the proviso that he runs well in the King George. I'm so tempted to back him and Long Run in the Gold Cup, but I already have two (above). I might wait and see if Laddies do the early NRNB again and see what price they go for both of them. At the moment, the Ryanair is one of the races I am most looking forward to. With the prospect of new boys like Finians, Cue Card, Champion Court and maybe even Sizing; I can't wait for someone to price this up. I can see Finians being priced up as AP favourite, but I'm really interested in Cue Card at a bigger price. |
|
By:
Binocular fans stick with him till the end.
 Sorry Tom, he is never ever winning another champion hurdle. Fly lost 1 race, Bpig has lost tons. |
|
By:
I was not wildly impressed with the Supreme and suspect Simon and Oscar will go over fences.
I think it is too soon to write off HF and I think Zarkander can improve to 6, though it is my mind that he is a stayer (could be wrong here). I could see Zarkander starting fav for this. I suspect ROR will be on the premises. This may not have been the best champion ever, but he has lots of upside IMO. Regarding Binocular, I know I have been a vocal supporter and long time excuse-maker (understatement...) for this enigmatic horse but i suspect conections will not think his chances entirely gone. I'll explain - I think Binocular was given a ride this yr that utterly backfired. I think they thought HF was the one to beat (who didn't?) but AP ended up tracking a horse who had an off day (or something) and Binoc was way too far back to win in a race which happened up front. Nevertheless, i think there may be reasons to be optimistic. I am pretty certain connections feel the wind op prior to Wincanton has helped quite a bit. I think they were very confident before the Champion. It did not work out but I suspect they do not blame the horse as 'not good enough' now. The Wincanton run can be shot to pieces form-wise, but he exuded real class that day. I think they recognise the pre-planned ride in the Champion backfired. I suspect the Kempton beating of ROR makes them think this was a Champion that possibly got away from them. NJH has only ever essentially trained this horse for 1 race a yr once it became apparent he was a Champion horse after his novice season. I suspect they think the Champion run can be written off and they do have him 'back' thanks to the wind op. Therefore i imagine a similar routine - Newcastle (which is never more than a day out for him), Kempton (where he is straight enough) and a prep to have him spot on. I think if they can have him back in A1 form, they will think he has another shot, and i think he would be a major player. There is no doubt in my mind that the best of Binocular is better than last yr's winner. I think he would be a player but I am not totally sure he could win another (i would dearly love him to), he's had his chances and to prevail in the biggest race, having disappointed a few times elsewhere, it does seem a little unlikely now. That said, I think the trainer stables the winner anyhow, if he comes back, in the machine (IMO) that is Spirit Son. I've had been backing him for a while and will continue to. |
|
By:
CVB - Binocular fans stick with him till the end. - it is true! Always is with love at first sight!
|
|
By:
CVB - you have to judge a horse off it's best form not it's defeats. Bino's CH still the best, unlucky not to have won three of them. That heavy ground loving Irish horse won a very weak renewal when he was very lucky that the best hurdler in training was withdrawn. NEITHER of them win it next year ay aged 9, get used to that fact now.
I've got small stakes on so far on Flem, LI, TGB Gold Cup and Sanctuaire CC. Not on SDC because of price as all about value for me, can see SDC being a King George horse and may play there instead. |
|
By:
Agree with most of what has been said above, especially R Carver's reasoning. In my heart I suspect Bino will be unlikely to win another Champion and believe with better luck, better tactics etc that he really ought to have won more than the one he has on his CV.
To say he can't win next year is silly, though. I think the reason Binocular fans will stand by him despite reverses is because this is a horse who can be brilliant on his day when things do drop right. He actually has a better record than you'd think at the highest level based on the criticism he gets. Given a good prep, suitable conditions, and a good ride, he could win another Champion next term. And, at 33s, I think he offers some value - he shouldn't be five times the price of Hurricane Fly, whose star is certainly not shining as brightly as it was back in February. |
|
By:
Binocular would have won no Champion Hurdles if Fly had made Cheltenham that year.
Anyway, Ruby thought Fly was lethargic at Cheltenham, AP said Binocular was flat out a long way. No excuse made, the horse isn't good enough and we need to accept his Champion Hurdle race fell apart with Solwhit sick and Go Native getting injured early meaning nothing left to beat. Anyway, I think he can't win next year and I'm certainly not backing him like I did this year. Will defo lay him in Fighting Fifth and back in Christmas hurdle though. Good horse, just not great. |
|
By:
Fair enough - you are probably right, I just think the price differential is huge.
I'll never listen to jockey opinions when weighing up races though - Ruby is a great jockey but a shocking loser. There is always something amiss when one of his big ones doesn't fire. Hurricane may well have been flat this time gone, but his Champion Hurdle was just as weak from a form perspective (Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whisky and Menorah have hardly suggested it was a top-notch renewal). I'm not one to crab horses, especially when they have won championship events as you can only ever beat what's in front of you, but think it is at least as fair to question the merit of Hurricane Fly's biggest win as it is that of Binocular's. |
|
By:
No he isn't probably right! You only have to look at the comparative race times to see that HF's CH was one of the weakest ever. The fact PC has never got close to a high mark in any other race he has run tells you that too. HF was flat in the CH because it was the first time he had ever been asked to race at championship speed on decent ground!
Raceform Speed figures show the 2011 renewal to be the joint slowest of the last 10 years along with Sublimity's. Topspeed show's it up as the 2nd slowest of the last 10 just ahead of Sublimity's and the 4th slowest of the last 22, ahead only of Sublimity's,Hors da Loi's and Granville Again's renewals! The following table is derived from top speed and converted to l/m on the raceform scale (an exercise I did some time back to enable me to study 2 decades of data for major races rather than just 7 or 8 years that raceform had then been compiling speed figures in that way and which I keep up to date) 2006 Brave Inca 124 1998 Istabraq 123 2012 Rock On Ruby 121 1990 Kribensis 120 2010 Binocular 119 2003 Rooster Booster 119 1996 Collier Bay 119 1995 Alderbrook 119 1991 Morley Street 119 1997 Make A Stand 118 1992 Royal Gait 118 2008 Katchit 116 2009 Punjabi 115 2004 Hardy Eustace 115 1999 Istabraq 115 2005 Hardy Eustace 114 2000 Istabraq 114 1994 Flakey Dove 114 2011 Hurricane Fly 112 2007 Sublimity 111 2002 Hors La Loi III 111 1993 Granville Again 111 |
|
By:
The thing about Flys win was is was just one of a huge run of brilliant performances, while Binoculars was an upset really. Fly has always looked brilliant until this season and Binocular rarely has. Whether Fly actually bounces back is totally unknown, he looked a shadow of the horse he was on his last 2 starts so it's total guesswork if he comes back to the form he showed last year. But he can, while Binocular has lost far too many races to be given another chance, there is a never ending string of excuses for the horse, he isn't getting another chance from me especially when McCoy thinks he ran to form at Cheltenham.
Thieves I have utterly zero interest in ratings, speed figures or any of that at all when it regards championship races. |
|
By:
Hisaabaat CH @ 115
QDR GC @ 85 KS place GC @ 29 Favourite horse , miracle cure , 5s a runner . |
|
By:
CVB,the man who quotes the official idiot's ratings every third post has no interest in ratings. Makes me LOL every time. I was referring to TIMES of races, the ratings I gave are merely a numerical representation of those times thatshow HF to be one of the slowest CH winners ever. One of "a string of brilliant performances" where he beat the very ordinary Pedlers Cross once and beat Solwhit 37 times on the trot on heavy ground.
|
|
By:
Binocular has not had a straightforward career, he has disappointed, but he has had more than 1 peak effort. His novice runs were top class. He has had several excellent efforts since. IMO he should have won more than 1 Champion.
I do not like knocking jockey's but I am sceptical about much of what Ruby and AP often say. I understand it is hard to be measured when a mic is thrust at you in the aftermath of a defeat, however. Regarding jockey's views post-race - I do not think Ruby is always great in defeat (few are) but I have known none more sour than AP. Maybe he is trying to set them up for JP later down the line, or fool the handicapper, but whenever AP speaks, I take it with a pinch of salt. He has a reputation for being ultra-critical on himself, and this is fine, but to my mind he applies the same standards to his rides and quite often it just sounds stupid. He gave Darlan a bad ride in the Supreme IMO (I know he had fallen LTO and maybe needed some space butit reminded me of the ride on Dunguib) but when the horse struggled to victory (when under-cooked) when winning its novice there late in 2011, he said maybe the horse is not so good and looked as if someone had killed his cat. Way too critical and unmeasured. The horse was good enough to win the Supreme with a better ride IMO. He gave Binocular a bad ride in the Champion IMO (maybe a good ride would not have been good enough on the day, but his ride certainly did not help IMO). As soon as I heard the 'flat to the boards' comment, I was doubtful - it sounded like some kind of after te fact justification to me. As I say, maybe i should give him te benefit of te doubt generally or maybe just accept that he is right and I am wrong, but I suspect if he was given te ride again, knowing what he knows now, he would not ride it in the same manner. He often says he loves Binocular, but if it is true that you sometimes need to hurt the ones you love, he does it in spades! |
|
By:
^ Agree with this completely. I also think Binocular's effort was not as bad as some are suggesting given that he didn't finish far behind Hurricane Fly despite giving him two lengths or so throughout the race (and I do agree, that both of them gave too much to good horses, whether they ran below par or not) and nearly crashing out at the last.
Last I will say on this as it seems I am hijacking a good thread with my own ramblings about Binocular. The last thing I would say is that I am not the kind of punter (anymore!) who follows horses over cliffs. The reason I will stick up for this one, who admittedly does require more excuses than most, is because I believe he has physical issues that often flare up and prevent him from running to his best. When they are absent he can be brilliant and for that reason he will always represent value at certain prices against any opposition. |
|
By:
Ratings are how the official handicapper judges a race thieves, I'm using the same concept to explain why the Gold Cup was the worst since the 90s. I don't care about official ratings with regards to a horses chances of winning a race unless it's a Handicap. I have backed Sir Des Champs after all who's rating is probably in the high 150s or something, I don't care.
But the thing I give utterly no credence to what so ever are times. They are totally and utterly useless in NH racing and it's flat people trying to apply one idea from that sphere to jumps. It doesn't work. What a horse has beat and my judgement on his potential are all that matter to me. As for Hurricane Fly he beat Binocular, and plenty others on the bit at Punchestown. But look people can knock any horse, sure people knocked Kauto Star after all. This is betfair forums an utter sesspool of vitriol and bad opinions. If a horse who wins 10 grades 1s and only suffers a single defeat is one of the worst Champion Hurdle winners ever they you have to laugh. It's clear thieves you just love Binocular and his fan club are rather a unique band of supporters. The horse will have to be retired before anyone gives up on him. People like RC, tomdeane, bud, Steeplechasing etc.. are people who's opinions I'd actually rate as they have a track record of decent opinions on here. You still make me laugh with you're amount of postings since joining in Jan. |
|
By:
I agree with you tom with the line "I am not the kind of punter (anymore!) who follows horses over cliffs" while once I'd battle tooth and nail with all and sundry on here defending Kauto, Fly, Big Zeb... and their cheltenham chances. Sometimes their time is up and I'm far quicker now to admit when that is. Despite Kauto even proving his staunch supporter wrong one last time this season
Bottom line is, I gave up with Zeb this season after Tied Cottage Chase, he clearly was a shodow of the old horse and had no chance of beating Sizing Europe. Similarily I cannot be but unimpressed by Hurricane Fly at Punchestown, he looks like a shadow of the horse he was to my eyes. I cannot simply assume with a full season of racing he'll come back to himself at the age of 9. If he is not showing the same sparkle in his first 3 runs before Cheltenham then I'll have to be pragmatic about it. I suppose it's this attitude which makes me a little baffled by Binocular supporters, I had backed him for the last 3 champion hurdles, traded out of the bet the year he won, had nrnb the year he didn't run and lost this year. But I am a supporter I have backed him in 3 christmas hurdles, I like the horse but am certain he simply isn't up to winning a Champion Hurdle again 3 years after he last won it. He is the ultimate cliff horse imo, so many supporters who never ever give up making excuses. It's amazing really. |
|
By:
something i have learned over the years is not to get emotionally attached to horses who have served me well (won me decent money ) in the past , its easy to have a bias for horses that have won you large sums of money and a kind of bond or connection can emerge that you unconciously feel you should not desert the horse (after all he has done you a big favour and won you big money ,may be feel you owe him something so stick with him ) and you can find yourself coming up with reasons( although your judgement may be clouded by the financial /emotional bonding ) to justify sticking with the horse. to me the whole issue has to be about the price and is it value . this is just my opinion but it has served me well in the past.
|
|
By:
Hi CVB, I do confess a love for Binocular and I also admit the excuses are getting thinner and thinner. I've been a staunch supporter of the horse and do think he has at times had very legit excuses (I'll always maintain the trainer only trains him for 1 race a yr really) but I've also confronted the possibility that if you have to keep making excuses or keep finding angles to support a horse's chances, maybe there is something more problamtic going on. Hope springs eternal I suppose and if he lines up in the same sort of form this March as he appeared to be last March (I lknow the Wincanton run was dodgy), all things being equal I would make him a genuine player (i.e., not a certain winner), though as I say, I think S Son is the one who is unexposed.
|
|
By:
Hi Foyles - you are right IMO. Emotional attachment is fine as long as it does not colour your betting. I think it does to us all to a greater or lesser degree.
|
|
By:
Some degree of emotional attachment is almost inevitable for National Hunt fans. It's seeing the individual horses develop over many years that makes it such an attractive sport. I'm sure there are gamblers on here who are totally detached and see the racing purely as a betting medium, but for me it's primarily a sport with some betting attached. Unlike flat racing, which is the other way round. I rarely mind losing a bet to an impressive performance because I enjoy seeing good horses run well.
That said, even I try to avoid following a horse off the cliff (which is why I didn't back Tidal Bay last weekend.....) |
|
By:
Same here Strontium. I would still go up and down the country watchin NH racing if betting was banned. Meanwhile, I'd hardly open the curtains to watch a flat race, betting or no betting.
|
|
By:
just went in again on spirit son....i must be mad
|
|
By:
Agree about the fly re emotional betting etc , doubt I will be lumping on him this year but will still wear my scarf as I did for the Tuesday and Wednesday even though he lost.
Currently i am attempting to build a stake on sdc and ss - also have a l15 of bigb , bb rsa , ss and sdc - not originalbut still pays a decent sum . Has anyone ever done the panoramic seats at chelt ? Are they any good ? |
|
By:
have just added finians rainbow gold cup to my list at 70s to win and 18.5 to place ,see my finians gold cup thread for reasons, good luck with yours
|
|
By:
SN - not sure what you man by the Panoramic seats. The ones on levels 3 and 4 of the Grandstand?
I've never done them for the Festival because they're pretty expensive but Members get to use them at some of the lesser meetings. The view is fantastic from up there - the best I've found at the racecourse. Plus I understand you have a particular reserved seat at the Festival which has obvious advantages. The downside could be it's quite a battle to get to and from the betting ring from up there, though they're reasonably convenient for the paddock. |
|
By:
Yes that is what I mean strontium - thanks for the reply - think I may treat my wife for nyd if we make the meet . I Do like the idea of different views from the course - attended two meets now over 4 days and usually view from only 2 spots. Quite like the idea of viewing a race from the middle of the course aswell - have you ever done that ?
The only downside I can imagine is that I tend to get a bit involved if my horse is going well!!!!!!!!!!! |
|
By:
SN - I quite often watch the cross country races from the middle of the course because you can get pretty close to the action and the horses come past you several times. I actually watched the Champion Chase from there as well this year (by the fence where Wishfull Thinking fell). You can't see much of the race apart from the horses jumping the fence you stand by, so at a normal meeting you are totally dependent on the commentary (which you can hear clearly). You've no real idea what's happening in the finish. At the Festival you may also be able to use the second big screen depending on exactly where you stand. The thing you can see from the centre of the course that you can't see anywhere else is the reaction (surge) of the crowd in the Grandstand in a close finish. It's probably better to watch a race on the new course from the centre because you're closer to the action. Overall, I'd recommend everyone does it at least once - for the sound the horses make galloping up the track and for the sight of a chaser jumping a fence at pace.
As we're discussing this, can anyone suggest any courses where you get a particularly good view from by the fences - I find it varies a lot (e.g. Cheltenham and Newbury poor, Kempton impossible, Sandown, Fontwell, Towcester very good). |
|
By:
Thanks for the comments once again . I have only been to Wetherby and Cheltenham jumps and York flat. Defo want to get to a few new spots but I imagine Cheltenham is the best !
|
|
By:
im keeping spirit son onside as im not impressed with last years champion hurdle.
sprinter sacre,qmum,as we are all hoping hes as good as he looks. arkle-my fav race-tho simonsig looks worthy of being short im happy to take 20s tonight on arvike legionaire.This horse was unlucky not to have lined up last year,won easily tonight and jumped well.Who knows what distance he will end up over,could run in any nov chase but 20s is too big for now. |
|
By:
Large double
Big Bucks 7/4 Quevega 1/1   just pay me now! |
|
By:
have added al ferof gold cup at 85s on here for a few sheckles ,bit of a speculative one but it looked too big to me shapes as though he will stay and should trade a good deal lower in the run up to the race all being well,
|
|
By:
Gone in on quite a few early doors, small stakes but good fun getting a big priced winner you picked a year ago...most chuffed with the Gold Cup book, SDC backed before his Jewson win this year.
Champion Hurdle Cinders and Ashes 1pt 20\1 Spirit Son 1pt 20\1 Gold Cup Bobs Worth 2pts 12\1 Sir Des Champs 1pt 33\1 Last Installment 1pt 33\1 Imperial Commander 0.25 pts e/w 66\1 RSA Chase Brindisi Breeze 1pt 14\1 Champ Chase Sanctuaire 1pt e/w 50\1 |
|
By:
That looks a terrific book Chad - well done.
|
|
By:
added cue card about 6 weeks ago at 110 and 100s and 18s for a place for the king george bit of a speculative one as he may stay over 2-2.4 miles but nothing to lose trying 3m and you dont know untill you try em !but he is classy travels and 3m could suit around kempton ,the 110 and 100s was far too big. for a horse of his calbre .
|
|
By:
Already bet
CH - Grandouet 12/1 20win GC - Fleminstar 12/1 20win 20double bet i am putting on but not sure with who,still looking for overall best prices. LUCKY 31 to a pound Grandouet Fleminstar Fingal Bay - RSA Dom Cossack - Supreme Arvike Legionaire - Arkle These five all missed Cheltenham for different reasons and taking big leap of faith they all make it this time round.I have backed them because of potential rather than what they achieved. Best of luck with your selections , be great for one of our bets to bash em. |