Cheltenham Festival
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First dabble for next year.....anyone
First dabble for next year.....anyone
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Back to the Binocular debate if i may.
Most on here know i am a big fan of the horse,but i would not be afraid to say if i felt he could no longer do it. The fact is that in this years CH he was ridden badly and hit the last.I am convinced had he not hit the last he would have at least got 3rd. Had he been ridden more prominently as he has in every other race hes contested i am equally convinced he would have gone very close,and given his form with ROR,its not beyond to say he would have won. Therefore i give him another go next year and current odds imo should be taken. |
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Agree Bud, that 44 does seem big for Binocular, but when he loses the fighting Fifth as usual, you may get bigger after that.
Can't really see him winning myself, but there doesn't seem to be much strength from last years novices; but I suppose we won't be sure of that until they race in open company. I think the winner will come from Hurricane Fly, Spirit Son or Grandouet. Peddlers Cross would interest me back over hurdles, but there is always the option for the World Hurdle, so couldn't back him. Since this thread was started, the only one I have added to my list was Tataniano to place in the Champion Chase. He's in the 90's to win, so may not come back from injury, but I still think he has the ability to finish in the top 3, especially if Finians is stepped up in trip. |
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Yeh, i would not argue their are more likely winners,but should Bino line up next March,he wont be 44/1 !!
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Definitely. I looked on Oddschecker, and then had to double check Betfair because I thought he'd be in the low 20's.
At the moment I think the winner will come from one that raced in this years race, or from Spirit Son or Grandouet |
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He probably should be Budd.
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Thing is Stront,he will probably win at Xmas.
He's never had a bad run at the festival as far as i recall,and even when his jockey did his best to ruin his chances this year,he still could have placed.As i said earlier his form with ROR suggests to me he would not have been far away with a more prominent ride. His price is too big lads. |
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thing is, he'll be 9 and it'll be 3 years since he won it. he appears to be declining. it's asking a massive amount for a horse to regain its top form so long after its peak. History shows us these championship races are won by up and coming horses, not by old stagers regaining former glories. I would also add he look beaten fair and square to me this year - possibly AP misjudged the opposition by tracking Ruby but few excuses.
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Good old Binocular! And the good old Binocular debate!
I love him and do think the 44 is too big. I agree with Strontium's point - you wouldn't expect a horse to regain a championship title three years on from his big win, and the excuses are stacking up for a horse not getting any younger. However, my angle with Binocular is always the same - I'm convinced he struggles with physical issues and think this has been backed up by connections never quite knowing what to expect. His Wincanton win was nothing to write home about in terms of form, but his swagger was back on that occasion and to my eye it was absent at Cheltenham again. Despite this he still ran well given the pattern of the race. I would always be a backer at 44s on the chance that he will arrive at Cheltenham in great nick, because I honestly believe there are very few who have the natural ability that he has. Am also being swayed by Spirit Son's case, although I think the price is too short based on the bare level of his form. I actually like the fact that he missed a whole season rather than coming back half-cooked last term, as I don't think the injury was ever too serious but connections' patience indicates how highly they rate him in a stable loaded with two-mile talent. Aintree form is always a nightmare to judge, but a hammering of Cue Card and Rock On Ruby does look mighty good now! On another note, FOYLESWAR, I think the 18 for a place on Cue Card in the King George could well be a shrewd bit of business. |
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One last point on the Binocular angle, as it also applies to lots of other horses we all discuss.
I think we sometimes spend too long ironing out the precise merits of form performances in the build-up to Cheltenham. It is obviously the logical starting point, and I would never advocate an approach based purely on subjectivity. However, it is time we accept that virtually all trainers gear their horses to peak in March these days, which means pegging some horses down for scraping home in trials might well be unwise. We saw Finian's and Bobs Worth come on hugely in March, which was no surprise to some, but many wrote them off due to prior runs despite knowing they had the ability to perform much better when it mattered. The same is true with past performances; so many people use Binocular's Champion Hurdle form to tie his ability down because it didn't look a great renewal. That may be true, but he travelled, jumped and quickened in the manner of a real top-notcher that day and I think he would have beaten most winners of the race on that occasion, such was his authority. It also works the other way; horses that have hard races or are overtrained for the Festival often disappoint only to come back bigger and better the following season. For that reason I wouldn't write off the likes of Long Run from regaining his Gold Cup crown. I am a firm believer that we rarely see horses regain championship titles because the competition is so hot, and it takes a lot to get a horse to Cheltenham at its very best on more than one occasion. I think the up-and-coming angle might be overplayed a tad. Put it this way, if a former winner arrives at Cheltenham in the same shape as when he first won a championship race, I would not hesitate to get behind him/her, even if the title had been lost in between. |
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What has cotton mill done to say he has any chances in the champ hurdle??
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PS/ If Binocular wins the champion hurdle next year ill show my ars e off in the centaur
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Howdi - re Cotton Mill - not a lot, but I do think he's overpriced. He travelled like a quality horse in the Neptune before he ran out, then again at Aintree where he didn't stay 3 m. I'm sure he would have finished second in the Neptune had he not run out, behind the mighty Simonsig who is going chasing. I like 2 1/2 m novices for the Champion and Neptune performers have a great record in the CH. Add to that the Supreme didn't look great imo, and not many from this year's Champion are likely to challenge again... plus his trainer doesn't have any chasers (yet) so he may stay hurdling... Overall, I think it's an interesting bet at a big price.
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Sront,9 aint too old for a horse to win a CH.
Yes of course one or two of the younger brigade may be better now,but from what i saw of Bino last season it did not look to me a declining horse. Still convinced his best form - which i still think hes capable of- would see him a big threat come March. And if he were to win,we could all get to see Howdi in all his glory  Oh dear!!! |
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That would be worth seeing.
I agree 9 isn't too old but it would be unusual - only 3 winners aged 9+ in the last 30 years. More important for me is that he doesn't look as good as he was and he has another full season to go before the race. He was right at the top 3 and 4 years before the race in question and very few can stay right at the top for so long. I think his current price on here is a fair reflection of his chances - but mercurial is the word for him - he possibly is still capable of a bit of brilliance on his day. |
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Regarding first dabbles - I've had to small stakes on here for the Gold Cup both The Minack and Mossey Joe. The Minack because seems like PFN has brought him along slowly and not overfaced him, and still improving, however not sure about left handed tracks suit? Mossey Joe is just a hunch that the Good ground will really suit and looked classy on that ground. Please feel free to pull me apart.
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couldnt pull you apart for those selections as who would have said this time last year synchronised and the giant bolster would be 1-2 in the gold cup ,as we are all aware horses can improve stones,look at that ex handicapper who improved 80 odd pound and won at the festival . at this stage almost anything is possible .
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Binoclar continues to be a horse that divides opinion,here is mine for what its worth.
1st festival 2008-2nd behind Captain Cee Bee(didnt go through with his effort. 2nd festival 2009-3rd to Punjabi ???????? 3rd festival 2010-beat Khyber kim(3 1/2L) ??????? 2011 missed festival. 4th festival-2012-4th to ROR beat 6L. Those bits of form are all that matters with this horse,so 2013 wouldnt give it a snowball chance with Spirit son+grandouet also back on the scene,so if its 40.0+ on here makes no odds the horse is deteriorating from the MODEST heights that it reached in 2010,now the ratings argument for it after its CH win doesnt stand up with KK being no great shakes and the 3rd Zaynar need I say more. Let this obsession with this horse go your argument for me doesnt stand up. I will also show my butt(on the stage risking the jail)in the Centaur if this horse does the bizzo. Oh and if JP is reading this might be best to give Cheltenham a miss with this odd ball this year.Listen to your trainer thats what you pay them for. |
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^ hunt ball the ex handicapper ^
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Eh ! have I missed something.
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Sprinter Sacre QMCC
Big Bucks WH Quevega DNMOR Sir Des Champs GC Trifolium Arkle Oscars Well Arkle Zarkander CH Darlan CH Grumeti CH First 3 all wrapped up in singles/Doubles and Trebles..All the rest in small singles..Hope they all turn up is the early battle.. |
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No value in the AP market on fancied horses.
I've had a little bit on Grandouet for the CH and Cue Card for the Ryanair but I don't suppose they will be any shorter come November than they are now. |
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Thanks for you opinion Chelters,for what it was worth.
I will have mine if thats ok. Dont see a lot wrong with his Festival form to be honest,guess it depends how you look at it. 2nd in a supreme as a 4yr old behind a much stronger 7yr old who turned out a pretty good horse despite injuries/setbacks. Very close 3rd in the CH as a 5yr old,pretty good imo. Then won the race pretty easily with more in the locker to my eye. No idea what would have happened when he missed the race. Then fairly close up behind a horse he beat earlier in the season,despite being given a poor ride,plus he hit the last hurdle pretty badly. Not an obsession mate,just an honest assestment of the horse and an opinion that current odds are bigger than they should be. |
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Bud no disrespect meant. Seldom has a horse divided opinion so much. Its form doesnt reflect the status I feel in which some hold it.
Your point of CCB being a 7yo in the Supreme seems to stand up but what was behind Bino- Snap Tie,Kalahari King etc so it wasnt a vintage renewal and with injuries CCB isnt much of a yardstick and if one doesnt rate this piece of form the rest of his Cheltenham form isnt stratospheric and hence my grave doubt if his ability remains intact, he is quirky and couldnt be backed in any race let alone a Championship race with any certainty. As I say again I wasnt being dismissive of your view as IM sure(1.01 nap)your knowledge of racing is greater than my humble efforts. I enjoy your posts and find them both interesting and informative but on this one I dont agree,cheers Bud. |
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No worries mate,you would not be the first i have differed in opinions with!!
Binocular is certainly a horse that brings out a lot of different opinions,probably due to his somewhat quirky nature you alluded to,and thats fair enough. I am a big fan of the horse,but even i am very careful when backing him,and really the only time i do back him is at the festival when hes usually decent odds,and hes pretty certain to run his race. Other times of the year he is unreliable,although xmas hes ok,but odds are normally rather cramped due to small field. I will always give him another chance at the festival all the time he shows me enough that he aint past it. This year i thought he was very unlucky,so will stick with him as an interesting outsider. Cheers to you too Chelters. |
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I am not a Binocular fan whatsoever, think he is for the most part massively overated bar 1 good win. That said i could nt blame anyone for backin him at the current price on here as it does seem a bit on the big side to me
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It is strange that he is now 50/1 on here for the Champion Hurdle.
I'm half tempted to have a couple of quid, because would always be able to lay off at a much shorter price on the day. Even if he doesn't win the Fighting Fifth or the Xmas Hurdle, I could never see him being sent off more than the 12/1 - 16/1 mark for the Champion. I wonder if all is well with him? JP has Darlan, so they'll probably run Binocular over 3 miles to drop his handicap, so he is "thrown in" the County Hurdle! |
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Im sure i read a quote from Henderson saying they may go novice chasing?
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