grands crus

I reckon he could have a fair chance in the KG. He clearly handles the track though it's potentially going to be a very competetive renewal with some of the top 2-2 1/2 milers stepping up pus a decent looking bunch of novices from this year. Since he didn't stay 3 m this year at Cheltenham, and barely at Kempton, I expect the Gold Cup trip will be beyond him. I also doubt that he's good enough to win a Gold Cup - so the Ryanair would be his Festival target for me.

6-1 for the King George? At this stage. No thanks.

Gold Cup no chance imo

King George winner 

Will win Paddy Power, then run well in King George. Tailed off in Gold Cup

I'm not completely writing this fella off for the Gold Cup yet, and I think 20/1 (joint 5th or 6th fav) is a fair price.

I think he's definitely got the class, and as he gets older he will probably be able to stay further.  I think just because he didn't win this years RSA automatically writes him off for next year.

I may be wrong, and I've got plenty of experience in being wrong, but at this stage I'm keeping all options open.

I think he has no chance of out staying Bobs Worth or Sir Des in a Gold Cup.

King George winner BJG knows

Personally would not put a penny on him till ive seen him run next season.
And if he is ok next season,imo he will be best at distances between 2m4f and 3m.
He dont stay well enough for a KG imo and certainly wont win a Gold Cup.

Has he not already gotten 3m at Kemtpon??

Beating Silvianico Conti who went on to demolish Champion Court at Aintree, Bobs Worth in 3rd went on to win the RSA
That race was nearly 3 seconds quicker than the KG too


Personally i dont think he'll ever stay well enough to win a GC at Chelt but i think 3m around Kempton will be his ideal trip

I also haven't got a penny on him, but I'm not writing him off just yet.

I think most people are of the opinion that the Ryanair trip is probably his best distance, but I think its nailed on that he will have a Gold Cup campaign next year.

Might stay a bit better next year, and with a prep run in January you never know.  I think he'd definitely be in the mix turning for home, and then its into the unknown.

Yeh i know mate he won at Kempton,and i could be wrong,but i thought at the time that was as far as he wants,and against better,classier stayers he would not stay well enough.
Ive seen nowt to alter that view since.
I thought his festival race was the Jewson last season,and said so a few times on various threads,and i think the Ryanair is his race next season.
Thats if he comes back in good form,which i must admit i have my doubts.

Yup, id say the Ryanair would be ideal for him too

he is in the mix for the king george but i thought silviniaco and bobs worth were cutting his lead down at the finish  in the feltham ,that form does not look bad at all  now , also he may stay a bit better this season and unlikly to meet bobs worth in the king george at 6s i would look for better value tho and he has to prove himself after the r.s.a run !

3rd in KG, then maybe they'll realise he don't stay and target the Ryanair. I reckon he'd run well in the QM too.

20-1 is a big price for the Gold Cup. He stays three miles just fine and looks like he'll get further to me. Some pretty lazy form reading to conclude he doesn't stay very well based on his RSA flop. Let's not forget as a younger horse he won a Cleeve Hurdle pulling a cart in soft ground against some good stayers. Something was amiss at Cheltenham in the RSA but it wasn't stamina.

It doesn't to me Tom. He didn't look like he really stayed 3 m at Kempton last December, let alone the Gold Cup trip. I agree with you that the RSA was not his running (for some reason) but I still doubt he'll be good enough to win a Gold Cup. You also make a fair point about the Cleeve - but that's shorter than the CGC and he was allowed to dominate inferior horses which would not be the case in a CGC. He has a lot to prove for me - all reputation, little substance.

Something was amiss in the RSA?? - thats why he was cruising and trading 1.61 not far out.

Just got to look at his 2 runs against Big Bucks in 2011 - Chelt and no pace really shook BB up. Aintree and pace BB disposed of him effortlessly.

Also watch the Cleeve carefully (watch from the last onwards) - its a dead give away that 3m is beyond him let alone 3m2f in the GC. A horse that truly stays and on bridle at last versus horses that had been under pressure for ages would pull away even when not pushed but he barely maintained the advantage from last to line. Don't get me wrong I was hoping he was a stayer as I had big ew ante post for the world at 16's but having seen that I had a big layoff at evens in the world IR placed b4 the start.

I believe Ruby Walsh has said that Grans Crus doesn't see out his races and he's been at the sharp end with him a few times.

Each to his/her own, as always, but I disagree completely with your analysis, racingguru.

Using two races against Big Buck's as proof that stamina is an issue doesn't work. You are just drawing a conclusion from a correlation there - how do we not know that Grands Crus was not badly over the top by Aintree? In any case, the distance beaten was still very respectable and based on how good BB almost certainly is, that would represent very good form indeed.

The Cleeve example doesn't work either. A horse on the bridle would not be expected to pull further clear unless those behind him are weakening. They weren't - they were just plodding on at the same pace having been beaten senseless when he injected that turn of foot coming down the hill. Tom Scudamore let him coast home as he liked. If you watch it again, surely you can't argue that he would have extended the winning margin had he been ridden out?

For me, the point of most importance is made by Strontium, in that he might not be good enough to win a Gold Cup. I am still unsure about this, but am inclined to have him on side rather than be against him.

Stamina can be a factor that people worry too much about. Kicking King never looked like a real stayer but he was an easy winner of a Gold Cup. Rhythm is key in long distance races, and because Grands Crus jumps well I can easily see him lasting the trip. The key of course is getting him to settle; this will not be easy as he is so enthusiastic. I still think his Feltham win was the best piece of novice form on offer last term and he was only tying up a little because he charged to the front a long way out. Any stayer would have done the same having used up such energy in making such a bold move.

^ When I say the best piece of novice form on offer, I mean out of the staying brigade!

And with reference to Strontium's last post, I would imagine Ruby would say the same thing about all the horses he has battled with Big Buck's. It's easy to say a horse doesn't see out his races when you are riding that remorseless galloping machine!

tomdeane - when you say that you always disagree with my analysis, I take that as a compliment. If I think different to the majority then that is a good thing. Not that I get things right all the time by any means but I backed the first two in the RSA this year and to me there was no fluke about it by my ratings.

For what its worth I do agree with you that Grand Crus Feltham win the highest "staying" novice chase rating of last year but that's a 6m 2 sec race and my opinion was he wasn't staying particularly well at the end of that. The Gold Cup you are looking at 6m 35. I only had Bobs Worth best as 2 behind Grand Crus and he stays all over Grand Crus so how does Grand even beat the novices let alone the older brigade?

Pipe will come to his senses at some stage as its already in his mind that Grand Crus don't stay as he pulled it from the Argento fearing an end to end gallop. Why would you do that if you think the horse stays and opt for the RSA instead of the GC other than thinking its a shorter trip? You really think GC is gonna improve and stay better from 7 to 8??

As a side point I had Grand Crus Feltham Rating higher than that the Ryanair winner.

As a further side note and it may be a radical/controversial view but Kicking King, War of Attrition were at a very dubious time in Ireland when some horses were suddenly staying better than they ever did before or after - just for one run.

There are ways and means to get non-stayers to stay but they to the most part have been found out but in that era they weren't. No surprise to me that since that era Ireland has had zippo in the staying ranks.

It's certainly very interesting racingguru - one of us will be right on this one at least!

I definitely think class is the most important thing in whether a horse stays well enough to win at any trip, and there is a strong argument that beating Take The Stand a few lengths meant Kicking King won a weak renewal.

Next year;s Gold Cup looks like a great race but I'm yet to be convinced that it is that great in terms of quality. There is a lot of potential there but as yet not much substance (which I admit includes Grands Crus),

I don't think he will necessarily stay better from 7 to 8 but I think he stays perfectly well already. It's my gut feeling based on what I've seen but I could of course be wrong.

Interesting chatting about it though - good luck!

I do understand where you are coming from in wanting the "best" novice on your side and I have Grand Crus rated the best novice too especially as him jumps so well. I also think they're is something in being able to stay better if you settle really well but I think Grand Crus has sort of got 3m because of that whereas his best trip is 2m4f. Pushing for 3m2f is just the wrong way to go.

I could see him being equally as effective 2m2f - 2m6f.

One thing is for sure - we're the only two in Vancouver who even know who Grand Crus is.

FWIW - I like Grands Cru, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him follow the One Man route. Could win and dominate Charlie Hall/KG etc.  Then eventually revert to QM.  Having said that there was no Ryanair for One Man.

Grand Crus!!!!!

While I have doubts myself (see above), I can certainly understand the Grands Crus fans - he hits the profile for a Gold Cup winner very well: second season chaser, lightly raced over fences but not wholly inexperienced, form at Cheltenham, form at a previous Festival, won a G1 chase, won over 3 m, aged 8. There are plenty of glimmers there if you're prepared to forgive his RSA run.

With the Ryanair always being an option, he definitely isn't an antepost bet for the Gold Cup.

It depends whether you choose to believe David Pipe when he says he scoped badly after the race.  I personally find it hard to believe that there was a 23 length turn around with Bobs Worth from Kempton to Cheltenham.

I take the point that Kempton wasn't Bobs Worth's true running, but I don't think Cheltenham was Grand Crus' either.  I'd only have a length or two between them at their best.

There appears to be valid excuses like possibly the ground was a bit too quick, he had a schooling fall at the same time as Kauto, he allegedly scoped badly and didn't have a prep run in 2012 - could have just been an off day.

He does have a lot of questions to answer in his next run, I admit, but I think he may be getting written off a bit too quickly.

I suspect the RSA wasn't near GC's peak performance but there's a horses for courses arguement as well WellC - Bobsworth looks like one of those horses who's a stone better at Cheltenham than anywhere else (and also perhpas benefitted quite a lot from his breathing op). In the next gold Cup GC would have to face (and beat) a good looking bunch of novices in BW, Sir des Champs, Flemenstar and Last Instalment. Plus the still young (?) Long Run, and the rapidly improving (?) Hunt Ball and Giant Bolster. It looks like it's going to be a tough renewal and I just think he'd be facing at least 4 horses better than him over C&D.

I think rsa was grans crus running.As we all know the contrast between Kempton and Cheltenham is immense.
I think Grans Crus is a 10lb better horse than Bobs worth at Kempton,but I think Bobs worth is at least a 10lb horse better at cheltenham and the believe the extra quarter of a mile in Gold cup will accentuate the gap between them.
At this stage I would almost write off Long run at kempton and Cheltenham-has lost some of his zip and enthusiasm-hard to believe he is the same horse as won the Feltham and King George the year after.

King George-Grand Crus,Riverside Theatre and Finians Rainbow.
Gold Cup-Bobs worth and Sir des Champs

Can't see him ever beating Bobs Worth at Cheltenham over 3m

Possibly to early to write him off but its back to hurdling for this one(Pipe will give him one more chance in a top chase first) for me and another crack at a BB who will be another year older and POSSIBLY a little more vulnerable.

What's the idea behind hurdling? He jumps really well and more trip options chasing. Be really daft to go back hurdling.

Racingguru the next few years chasing division at 2,2 1/2 +3m appears to be the strongest in yonks whereas the hurdling divisions at 2+3m are very open and the best hope for G Cru to win a championship race is in the stayers,granted lots of nice pots to be won in grade 2s for GC but to prove to be a champion the stayers for me is this lads best chance of glory.................its all about opinions.

IMO GC don't stay 3m in a truly run race so Stayers hurdle is a no hope for him. The one he came second in was so slowly run that he almost got home. So that leaves the Champion Hurdle at 8 years old - possible I guess.

Think the 2m4f division chasing is not as strong as people think. The Ryanair form isn't all that and can't expect Riverside Theatre to improve at 9. Unless any of the other novices improve past GC can't see who there is that could beat him. Certainly think that is more likely than him winning a champion anyhow. Further the prizes along the way chasing are easier to pick up.

We will let time tell, though your point about the slow run stayers behind BB is interesting but I dont agree with it as GC stayed well enough over 3m on much softer ground earlier that season and looked anything like a non stayer at 3m to me.

WILL make the KG his own for next few years, injury free of course. would beat Bobsworth every time round Kempton but never around Cheltenham. The new One Man imo.