Cheltenham Festival
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but not by me ...............a gold cup winner ,a lexus winner ,2 grand nationals (welsh and midlands ) has had only 9 chases in his career is from a top stable with the champion jockey ,goes on heavy soft and good ,still improving and yet can be backed at around 17s for next years gold cup . i think bookmakers and punters still have it in thier minds that this is the mudloving plodder who won the midlands grand national , the same people who believed the gold cup was a 2 horse race between kauto and long run .
long run won the 2011 gold cup beating 2 ageing former champions and was if memory serves no bigger than 5 or 6 /1 for this years gold cup.
synchronised a horse with limitless stamina who is proven over the trip and who is never going to win by long distances on the bridal ,so we dont still know how good he is even yet , is around 4th best in the market on here at around 17s behind sir deschamps ,bobs worth ,long run all a lot shorter in th betting .what else has this horse got to prove .if he is withing 5 or 6 lengths of the leaders at the 2nd last then its deja vu imo .
o.k i know its a long time to wait but i have gone in at 18s and 17.5 on here and will continue to do so if sir des champs is 7.4 on here how can synchronised be 3 times his price . come on lads wake up and smell the coffee!
long run won the 2011 gold cup beating 2 ageing former champions and was if memory serves no bigger than 5 or 6 /1 for this years gold cup.
synchronised a horse with limitless stamina who is proven over the trip and who is never going to win by long distances on the bridal ,so we dont still know how good he is even yet , is around 4th best in the market on here at around 17s behind sir deschamps ,bobs worth ,long run all a lot shorter in th betting .what else has this horse got to prove .if he is withing 5 or 6 lengths of the leaders at the 2nd last then its deja vu imo .
o.k i know its a long time to wait but i have gone in at 18s and 17.5 on here and will continue to do so if sir des champs is 7.4 on here how can synchronised be 3 times his price . come on lads wake up and smell the coffee!
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have also had a smaller bet on this fella for the national at 20s on here .
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The proximity of The Giant Bolster would be a big worry for me tbh and the form of the Lexus has nt been boosted too well
That said, its a fair price for a current Gold Cup winner but id be disappointed if a few of the younger crop didnt improve past him |
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the thing is bj we still dont know how much improvement he has got in him ,he makes it hard for himself with the way he jumps seems to scramble over the fences, but the way he stays on ! the cheltenham hill is made for him .
bobs worth and first lieut have chances but nothing seems to come out of the rsa the following season . long run is shorter in the betting than synchronised at around 10s , maybee im missing something but he looks the value to me at this stage . |
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defending the Gold Cup has proved extremely difficult so I don't expect he will but you could certainly trade his price successfully I imagine
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If he can win 2 GCs I will sob for 5 minutes then calmly pack up. I have nothing against the horse, indeed I had a sweet uplift when he won the Welsh National but therein lies my beef... National winning plodders should not be winning the Blue Riband. They should stay on into at best 3rd imo
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burrough hill lad a plodder ? master oates ?
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I just about remember Master Oates.... exceptions and all that... I see Sync as a dour stayer no doubt I will see the light some day, perhaps next March
 It has been said on here we have been spoiled with Denman and Kauto, I tend to agree. The fact is out and out stayers can and do win the Gold Cup, I would just prefer it perhaps 1 in 50  |
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He's a 168 winner. The first 5 home were only 10l apart. He's not a great horse, he's a good one.
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Yes we have had a purple patch for the last decade but as i grew up watching this game horses such as Synchronised were the types winning the Gold Cup. He is on the up and who knows he may even improve his jumping.
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Yep,totally agree Foyles,won the race fair and square and no reason to think he cannot reproduce that.Of course one or two could come along and simply be better,but at this stage hes as good as any and better than a lot.
Price is certainly value compared to a few others. |
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168 according to the moronic official handicapper that had already pre-rated Long Run's victory in the race... I have him at a provisional 177 on the basis that Long Run usually runs to 174.
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The trainer is the main reason i wouldnt touch him with a barge pole,is just as likely to be pulling up in a seller this time next year.
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Thieves
177 makes Synchronised only 5lb to Denman at his best.  and 2lb superior to Best Mate..  He beat The Giant Bolster just over 2L. If you think Long Run ran to 174 then you should have an ice cold shower. 174 was probably his mark at Newbury but not in the GC. Burton Port only just beat Time For Rupert rated 153 before the race. |
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see where you are coming from in that respect denman ,but the trainer has a great record at the festival,and with staying chasers in general and that is what counts for me ! just pointing out the price descrepancy in synchronised and cannot see for the life of me how he can be 6 points bigger price than long run .
i can only come to the conclusion that people still have on thier minds the uttoxeter mud splattered slog, and they still think he is no more than a glorified handicapper. he is not a "sexy horse " and is probably underestimated by the media. what i love about this horse is he gets the job done, no fuss ,hes a street fighter ! does exactly what is says on the can. if he could jump fluently then he would be some animal as he has the courage of a lion and limitless stamina and he powered up the hill . |
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the Gold Cup is very difficult to rate until we see some collateral form. I have the winner around 165. It wasn't fast and I don't expect it stand up well.
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2 c&d winners,the most recent one being a fair bit bigger price,and given the fact that he beat the other c&d winner fair and square its a no brainer which to back now,thats if you fancy a bet on either at this stage.
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I'm sorry but 5 horses seperated by 10l is clear it was a poor race compared to recent times.
Denman was 7l behind Long Run last year next home was Kauto 4l behind him. Denman was 7l behind Imperial Commander, next home was a distance Kauto 13l clear of Denman, next home was 3l further back Denman 7l Clear of Kauto and Neptune, next was miles back See what I mean? You can't believe that with a bunched finish there was any standout horse this year. |
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Sychronised may well end up a one time Gold cup winner but he deserved his victory and was clearly the best horse on the day. I won't be backing him at 16/1 but it's difficult to argue that its poor value.
Good luck if you've backed it. |
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I think CVB has this spot on. I find it very hard to believe that one of the novices won't improve past him, let alone horses like Long Run and Weapons Amnesty if they run.
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i love a horse that is underestimated ,i get some great value, true he only beat the giant bolster and long run by a few lengths but this horse never wins by much its not his style,and he can only beat whats put in front of him ,and he has done nothing but improve through his chasing career and i dont think he has finished yet, he has had 9 chase starts,just re-run a few vids and have a look how this horse finishes off his races. . i know 1 thing punter /jockey /connections if your horse is in front with a fence to go ,the last horse you would want a few lenghts behind you is synchronised .
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Well,if anyone can give me a reason/excuse why Long Run got beat,fair enough,if not then those that say this years Gold Cup was poor had better accept last years was worse.
Personally i can see no excuse for LR getting beat so therefore have to think hes way overrated or Synch and Bolster are way underrated,or a bit of both. Has to one or the other unless someone can give me valid reasons. As i said before if thinking of punting now,Long Run at the prices cannot be punted,he is simply not value compared to the horses that beat him. |
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C'mon bud, only 1 horse has ever retained the gold cup in over 30 years and that horse had his main rival fall early. You can't simply say that because the reigning gold cup winner gets beat the previous years race was worse.
Long Run prob should have gone straight to the festival after King George like he did last year. Maybe he's on a downward curve this season like his breeding and number of races on the clock would suggest. But there's no getting away from it, he beat grade 1 winners 17l in the King George. He beat the Giant Bolster a fair way at Newbury. It's far more likely he just ran a poor race in Gold Cup than ran anyway near the same as he did last year. Burton Port was an obvious bounce. Is there any real reason for The giant bolster and Time For Rupert and Synchronised to suddenly improve a stone for instance? or Long Run to have run a poor race. the latter is more likely. As for Synch retaining his crown. Well every horse looks a good thing to retain his crown just after he's won it, look at Long Run last year, or Kauto and Denman before them. It's safer to wait till next season and see how the 2nd season chasers shape up, there's plenty of good ones there. You never know, maybe Long Run could return to form. Best to wait and see. |
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Fine,of course he may not have run his race,but its also possible that beating last years aged ones was not as good as 1st thought.
Its all summising,and i aint saying anything for definite,but i do know that the formbook tells me that Long Run won the Gold cup beating Kauto and Denman,who were clearly not the force they were,and since then hes won 1 race out of his next 4. I have the opinion that hes overrated,thats my choice,and until i see different,that will remain so,and i for one am amazed at his price compared to the horses that beat him fair and square,but also quiet pleased. |
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Note to self, don't back any second season novices before they run in open company. Made that mistake last year with Jessies Dream, Time for Rupert, Captain Chris and Oscars Well.
Note to self - sh!t, already backed Sir Des Champs and Last Instalment Note to self, stop writing notes because you clearly don't listen to yourself. I also think it could be a second season novice, but obviously we'll all have a better idea around November / December, until then I'll keep an open mind, but of the ones that ran in this year's Gold Cup I think Long Run is a very big price - just back him now at 10's and lay off later; can't see his price ever being bigger from now until post time. |
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Budd, I think its a combination of things - imo Long Run has regressed since his Gold Cup and his win was not as good as many (including me) thought at the time. However, that form was still decent when you consider he had some good horses (What a Friend, Midnight Chase, Denman) miles behind. I'm also sure Long Run did not run up to his King George or Denman Chase form from this season in this Gold Cup - if he had, he would have beaten TGB and Synchronised.
My view is he's shorter than them in the 2013 betting because he has proven better form than them. Of course he may never reproduce it. I'd be surprised if I end up betting on any of them, not least because I currently believe this season'snovices are very good. However, I'd expect Long Run to be the most likley of this year's Gold Cup horses to win next year. |
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Still, the King Geroge they were 17l clear of the rest in that with Nacarat winning the racing post chase, Somersby winning at Ascot. While at Haydock they beat TFR by a distance too. It's far more likely that Long Run just ran a poor race in Gold cup than the rest of the field suddenly improved so much. Especally given Long Run ran very well in 3 races this season.
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CVB - I think you're absolutely spot on in this thread.
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just like to say long run jumped as well or better in this years gold cup than i have ever seen him jump ,so cant see what excuses will be put up .? didnt run his race !
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Well,as far as im concerned,the thread starter has a good point,and ive read nothing here to alter that view.
Long Run looks to me as a horse that came along as the greats were near finishing,and has been found out this season. His run in the Gold Cup last month is imo as good as he is until he shows me different. Synchronised was a deserved winner,and at current prices is one of the horses i would consider value,LR is not. |
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Foyles, they aren't machines. Just because it was the Gold Cup doesn't mean the form is automatically any good. Three horses who would have been straightforward to rate through didn't get home (Kauto, What a Friend, Weird Al).
Personally I don't think the form looks too good (but I could be wrong ). The Giant Bolster got stuffed by Long Run at Newbury and ties in closely with Poquelin on his previous Cheltenham form. Time for Rupert, who has never won a decent chase of any note and has been outclassed this season, was only 10 l away. His form also ties in with TGB (Newbury). At this stage I conclude Long Run ran at least 10 lbs below form and Synchronised ran best of an unispiring bunch to (close to) his Lexus rating. Also, this Gold Cup is not unusual for the long term - we were spoild by Kauto, Denman and Imperial being well above average at the same time. |
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Agree Foyles,i aint read a proper excuse yet,just opinions that he werent the same as last season.
Stable aint said anything,be interesting to see what they say this Friday. Oh and if losing to an aged Kauto twice is running well for a GC winner and KG winner- i give up!! Sorry CV,just cannot have that mate. |
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I've really done very well at the festival over the years in forgiving a horse one race. There always seems to be one race that people hold up as the reason a horse can't win a certain race. I know horses aren't machines, horses lose races from time to time even the greats like Kauto and Istabraq to name a recent 2.
People held the Paddy Power against Long Run as a reason he wouldnt win the Gold Cup, but if you forgave him that run you see an impressive King George winner with the 2nd an impressive winner of a Grade 1 on his next start. Then this year, people focussed on riverside theatres arkle run as the reason he couldn't win the ryanair. Or Kauto's 2nd to Denman as the reason he couldn't regain his crown. and so on.... I'm no Long Run fan but I know from experience it's very dangerous and foolish to write him off based on one poor Gold Cup run. I'll reserve judgement until I see him run next year. |
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Thing is Stront,IC,D,and KS WERE above average, but i dont think they were last season when LR beat them,thats where LR imo has got overrated,and what ive seen of him since imo backs that up.
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Where's the shame in losing to the greatest ever steeplechaser at Kempton? He at least was close to Kauto, the rest were a fence behind nearly.
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Where's the shame in losing to the greatest ever steeplechaser at Kempton? He at least was close to Kauto, the rest were a fence behind nearly.
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Thats cos the rest were non stayers mate.
And he werent the greatest ever steeplechaser at the age of 11 mate. |
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He's still the best staying chaser around though and Long Run is the only horse to get close to him this season.
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see where you are coming from stront but the whole point of the thred was to highlight the difference in prices i.e value ,synchronised was average 17.5 /1 on here a just before i put the thread up sir des champs 7.2 ,who has not proved himself over trip , bobs worth won the r.s.a but winners of this have a dire record the following season ,and long run who jumped better than ever and was more than 2 lenghts behind synchronised ,just pointing out the descrepancie in prices of course sync may not even make the gig next year ,but then again nor may some of the others any thing can happen .
hendo has his horses 110/% for the festival and havent heard any excuses from his camp for long run ,i may have missed them tho , just think that synchronised is underated probably on the basis he won a mud splattered midlands national ,and peoplwe still cant get that out of thier minds . |
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I'm just saying look at Betfair chase and King George.
Kauto-Long Run-Wierd Al Kauto-Long Run Then in gold cup, Kauto pulls up injured, Wierd Al burst blood vessel and Long run is only one left to run a race. Very hard to suddenly say the form from those races are a stone too high based on just Long run, especially when TFR was well beaten at Haydock. Handicapper has it right, Long run ran below form. Also Captain Chris proved in ryanair he;s a stayer, he stayed on to get 4th and will run a blinder at Punchestown over 3m1f in Punchy Gold cup. |