2013 Gold Cup

The Gold Cup is littered with average horses who manage to run into the places in the Gold Cup.

Long Run ran well below his best and I'm sure there must be reasons. He can bounce back, while The Giant Bolster just ran that one good race and there's no reason to believe he's going to be good enough next year.

This years Gold Cup was the worst for many years, it was given a rating in the 160's. I believe the horses next year like SDC and Bobs worth are better than that. I'd expect TGB to be nowhere in a good gold cup, he's only a 160s horse and rated as such.

Only Long Run from this years field has any chance of winning next year.

The Gold Cup was given a rating in the 160s by the same pillock who got carried away with last year's and put that in the 180s!  It was the worst since last year's. 

TGB won a grade 3 Cheltenham handicap by 17 lengths in a very good time so it is just wrong to claim it was a one off.  I have no idea what people's bias against this horse is?  Is it the trainer?  His size?  His earlier jumping problems?

Thieves, I imagine his early problems are part of it. However he now sems to have sorted them out and he's put in his two best perfromances in his last 2 Cheltenham races. He does seem considerably better at Cheltenham than elsewhere (F1UU12 vs 1F724 - which doesn't tell the full story as the "away" 1 was his first chase at Worcester and the 2 was a four runner race, whereas the Cheltenham 2 was in a Gold Cup).

I'm somewhat ambivalent about his chances at this stage. If he continues his Cheltenham improvement he is a player (RPR 172 at the moment). On the other hand, he might have peaked - who knows? On balance, his price (40s here) is too big.

I'm not sure he has done improving yet.  Can't help but think of another small horse, Bregawn, who had a string of letters in his form figures and in his second season was 2nd in the CGC, he won it the year after.

I just think this years Gold Cup was rubbish. 5 horses seperated by 10l says it all. Long Run has shown good form in the past winning grade 1s by good distances so he is the one horse who can bounce back imo.

As for the rest, most ran to form or just a few lbs above it. If they didn't then the whole field had to run 10lbs above their best.

Anyway time will tell, but I'd be utterly stunned if TGB even went close next year. He couldn't win the worse renewal in over a decade. Defo wont win with better horses next year.

CVB, what price should he be iyo?

He's the right price now at 33/1 imo. He'd need to show form in relation to the horses who he'll face in the Gold cup next season before we can know if that's a good or bad price. But I'd imagine he'd go for the Betfair Chase while Bobs Worth and Invictus will go for Hennessy.

Fair enough - I can see him getting stuffed at Haydock and drifting.

What do you think about the 7/4 on an Irish winner mentioned on the other thread? It looks cracking to me given the doubts about the major British challengers and the apparent quality of the irish novices.

I couldn't split the Irish vs the English to be honest.

At the moment, if you put a gun to my head I'd back an English winner because I think Bobs Worth and Long Run are more proven over staying trips around Cheltenham, and the Henderson Cheltenham factor as well.

However, the Irish look to have a really strong hand and the betting could look completely different in March.

Of the main players (imo), I suppose if you had £100 to dutch the Irish challenge of Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Last Instalment; if one of the four won your £100 would return £315. 

If you had the same £100 and dutched the main English challenge of Bobs Worth and Long Run, your £100 would return £495 - bigger payout but half the total of runners running for you. I honestly don't know what I'd do!

Actually, I do know.  If you had the £100 and dutched all 6 then you return £192 (10/11).  Don't think I've ever had 6 runners in a Gold Cup before

I feel the Irish have the stronger hand. Long Run could well be regressive (I argued he was before March so I'm not going to change my mind now). Bobsworth is great round Cheltenham but he seems dour rather than classy and he also has to overcome the curse of the RSA. Nailed on to place, but to win? Riverside Theatre is classy and likely to step up but may not stay and struggles to handle the track - he was impressive in winning his Ryanair but that's a lot to overcome in the CGC. I don't see another strong British contender though tbf I wouldn't have picked Synchronised last time this year and there's plenty of time for something to emerge.

In Ireland, Sir Des Champs, Last Instalment and Flemenstar all look very classy. LI may not recover from his injury and F may not stay the Gold Cup trip - but they are the three exciting horses for me at this stage. Quel Esprit also has the right sort of profile for a Gold Cup winner and in the unlikely event Weapons Amnesty reappears he's a proven Festival horse.

cvb, surely the 2006 race was worse?
1 Synchronised 2 The Giant Bolster 3 Long Run 4 Burton Port
against
1 War of Attrition 2 Hedgehunter 3 Forget The Past 4 L'Ami

I know the idiot official handicapper agrees with you but RPRs and other ratings don't.

The race werent rubbish,it had the previous winner running 3rd with from what i could see- no excuses.
Then again maybe the one he won werent much good!! All ageing horses he beat that day.

Look,lets face it,we have a runner up in the race at 33/40,and novices a heck of a lot shorter,who still have some to prove.
yes,they could prove better,they may be now,but we dont know that,or at least i dont have any evidence to back that up,so current odds to me are a no brainer.

Horses aren't machines bud, Long Run did not run to form that is clear. Also as one of the lads on our forum said the day of the Gold Cup, he was talking to a lad from Hendersons yard who told him Long run wasn't going to win, but he'll defo win next year. This was before the race too. Then Long Run runs flat.

Going on his form from that season and the season before he clearly ran below form. he was 17 lengths clear in King George, was giving 10lbs and a beating to a field at Newbury. Long Run doesn't suddenly go to no hoper because he ran a poor race. Remember Kauto being written off because of 2 defeats at end of 2008 season.

As for WOA he was always a good horse, he'd won a Grade 1 nov steeplechase at Punchestown, then won his first 2 starts. Then had a fine 2nd to Prolific Beef or Salmon in the Lexus before he won the Gold Cup. It's rare that runner ups go on the next season and win, Kauto Star aside. Most Gold Cup winners are running in it for the first time or have won it before.

I just think TGB will turn out to be one of those average horses who placed in a gold cup.

I'm not sure anyone can say Long Run will "defo win next year". He's heavily raced, he's by Cadoudal and his form in 11-12 was some way below that in 10-11 (so he could be regressive). None of these are good signs. He's a contender for sure, but he has questions to answer.

You say most Gold Cup winners are running in it for the first time or have won it before - that's absolutely true, but only one has ever regained it after losing it.

I think you're spot on Stront and the last remark is the telling one for me.  I think he will still win races, but not the Gold Cup.  Having said that, doubt he'll be 10/1 come the day.

It was one of Hendo's stable lads, not me saying he will win it next year. Was more meant to point out that something was up with the horse before he ran that they knew about. Given how dodgy the stable are, especially with keeping info very quiet. It's fair to give the horse a chance to redeem himself given he is only 7. He's the only one left from the Golden generation. I'd be pretty sure he has a far better chance of winning the cup next year than TGB has.

Personally I think one of the 2nd season chasers will win, like is normal in the Gold Cup.

of couse they aint machines CV,but i happen to think the Gold Cup werent as bad as you are saying,and giving Long Run as maybe an example of that,but i do take your points mate.
As for TGB,i agree he aint the most likely winner next year,but i do feel hes value at this stage compared to others,and would not put anyone off backing him at his current price.Hes nothing to prove as far as C and D is concerned,and hes certainly improved,maybe he has a bit more to come,its possible.

But you just look at Synchronised, TGB, Burton Port and Time For Rupert being within 10l of eachother.

Rubi Light was 2nd to Synchronised in Lexus over staying trip then beaten further by China Rock, Burton port was beaten by Follow The Plan at Aintree. It's far more likely that Long Run ran below form and in the 160s than suddenly 4 horses run up towards and into the 170s.

It's very easy race to rate imo. Long Run ran well below his best. Be that the beginning of a decline or what we don't know. But he doesn't go from 17l clear of a King George field to giving a stone and a beating to them all at Newbury to his Gold Cup run. He was 20l clear of TFR in Betfair Chase too.

For me, I'm confident that nothing bar Long Run from this years race has a hope in hell of winning next year.

But I'd rather have my money on one of the second season chasers, which I do on Sir Des.

Midnight Chase aint a bad yardstick,beaten 30l by Synch this year,beaten 19l by Long Run last year.
Thats a bit of evidence to say this years Gold Cup was ok compared to last years,so maybe Long Run aint as good as we think he is,and that was pretty much his running in March.
In fact every race hes won i can find holes in.His KG win was courtesy of a bad error by Kauto,and the rest were non stayers,bit like his defeat to an ageing Kauto this season,all non stayers behind.
Yep,the more i look at it the more i think Long Run is overrated,and a lucky winner of a Gold Cup,beating horses way past their best.
I expect TGB to beat him if they meet again,and the difference in their respective prices is stupid.

His jumpings ropey as well

I'm sorry bud but Long Run has beaten the entire field bar Kauto in 5 consecutive top class chases before the Gold Cup this year. You want to knock every one of those performances, while also ignoring the season performances of Synch, TGB & TFR which shows they are 150s and 160s horses. Then in the Gold Cup, believe Long Run runs to form and all these horses improve nearly a stone. All in the same race.

That to me is rather far fetched.

We know Midnight Chase didn't run his race, that's obvious. Sure he won the Argento well in Jan then suddenly gets beat 20l by TFR in Gold Cup, that's a 34l turnaround if we believe he ran to the same form. You need some consistency, say TFR has up to his best which is 160 in the race that puts Synch on 169. Which would mean TGB improved from when the met in Jan, to be around 167.

This is all very easy to rate. Why does Long Run go from 10l+ beatings of Burton Port, TGB, TFR etc... to being inferior by at least 10lb when he runs in Gold Cup.

It's very very clear and easy to rate race for me. Synch 169 winner. His 8.5l beating of Rubi Light from Lexus shows, as Rubi was beaten 13l on Sat. There is no form line to believe the Gold Cup was anything but a race full of 160s horses and a mid 170s horse who rant 10lbs bellow his best.

I think that's probably right in terms of ratings CVB but it's also irrelevant as to the 2013 CGC. Horses don't stay the same. Long Run appears to be declining. TGB might still be improving (we'll see).

In any case, like you I think it will be won by one of the (Irish) second season chasers.

Thats ok mate,its all just summising and opinion,and as always you put up a good case.
I just feel that Long Run came along at the perfect time to beat Kauto and Denman,and his KG races have included a fair few non stayers.
As for others running in the Gold Cup,well thats where they would have trained to peak,and where i prefer to judge them.TGB improved all season and peaked there,TFR got steadily better and peaked there,as did Synchronised.
Burton Port came off a long lay off at Newbury so its a bit unknown as to how to rate his run at Cheltenham.

Anyway,maybe next season will tell us more.

All the best mate.

Had 2 bets,Last Instalment at 27,TGB at 40.
Think that will do till the Autumn.

Enjoy the summer break lads.

Yep, my point has been made a few times in this discussion. The winner is simply not from this years race, but if it did come from this years race it could only be Long Run.

As far back as I can remember the winner has either been running for the first time in the race, or has won it before (Kauto, Best Mate) or See More Business who was carried out the year before he won.

I can't remember the last winner to complete the Gold Cup the year before he won it.

So look elsewhere is what I've done. There will be plenty of top quality horses competing in the race for the first time.

Cheers Budd, you too.

I'm still clinging onto NH it's hard to wind down from it. I'll start an AP bets thread and post my bets before I sign off till the autumn.

Swinton Hurdle in 10 days

Yeah, last roll of the dice

Bl00dy hell,forgot about that!!

Nah,i'm done.

First Lieutenant is the value for me, can see him going off around the 6/1 mark on the day

I reckon he might be their Ryanair horse Bluebird. He didn't seem to relish the RSA trip let alone 2 f further and there's no obvious reason he'd reverse with Bobs Worth. Hlaf the battle with the Gigginstown horses next season will be working out where they end up as there are so many of them....

He could be headed for Ryanair, especially given China Rock winning Punchy Gold Cup means mouse will have a Gold Cup runner already. O'Leary will probably have Sir Des Champs and Last Installment for Gold Cup anyway. Possibly Weapons Amnesty too.

I have the impression (which could be wrong) that the trainers' wishes don't matter too much when it comes to where the Gigginstown horses run?

Gigg also possibly have Quito de la Roque for the Gold Cup - at least he wouldn't run in any other race if he travels over at all.

Where will Fists of Fury Run? Only 1/2L behind SDC last time out?

He's got a very juicy handicap mark.

So has Hidden Cyclone.  Both HC and FoF 20lb below SDC???

If you watch the race SDC isn't given a single crack of the whip to win that race and he is giving them weight. SDC is a big lazy horse he'll beat a 140 rated horse the same distance he'll beat a 160 rated horse. Don't get fooled by proximity of beaten horses. SDC just does enough.

CVB, I don't think he'll give Hidden Cyclone 20lb and a beating.

Surely the run at Xmas was irelevant anyway as the horse wasn't right? Shark said afterwards he had a problem in the yard.

Time of that Leopardstown race was quite poor, handicap mark of 137 might be about right for FoF, he's an 8yo, it was 5th chase already and he had been slaughtered by Last Instalment and Join Together in previous starts and was a pretty average hurdler.  Hidden Cyclone is another matter, a year younger, it was only his second chase start and only his second defeat under rules, he is entitled to improve a lot and his mark of 136 looks a fantastic start point for next season(his time when he won on his chase debut, beating Nearest The Pin, was also very solid, 5 l/mile quicker than the SDC race according to Raceform).

VikingRidge
19 Apr 12 11:46
Joined:
10 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 251 | Blogger: VikingRidge's blog
I love Flemenstar and have to be with him for the Gold Cup, breeding suggests he will stay the trip. Has a fantastic cruising speed, and jumps quite literally for fun.

have to agree with this comment, it's time for the new stars to shine.
i'm having £2 a day on flemenstar, for as long as i have money in my account.

CVB, I don't think he'll give Hidden Cyclone 20lb and a beating.

He wont have to, as SDC will never run in a handicap again, he's a grade 1 horse.

I like Hidden Cyclone, hope he runs in a handicap first before stepping up in grade

I Like Flemenstar too, but trip and ground are 2 questions he needs to answer. Price makes no appeal at the moment. Annoyed at myself for not taking the 25/1 when it was available as I had a big bet on him for Powers Gold Cup, what did I think would happen after he won that, D'oh

I'd be optimistic Flemenstar will get 3 m because of the way he handles 2 1/2 m on poor ground. The CGC trip is a step into the unknown though. He also seems to handle good ground based on the Powers Gold Cup. A very exciting horse for me.

Agree, he'll get the trip imo based on breeding. It's the ground that worries me. Pandorama for example was solely a soft ground horse and ended up injured running in Gold Cup on quick.

Flemenstar probably won get goodish ground until Chelts unless maybe in Lexus at Christmas. That'd be my worry. SDC for example has won at Cheltenham twice.

Yes, with the doubts current prices seem about right.

Was freakishly fast ground that Gold Cup though, Imperial Commander was also injured that day and he was fine on genuinely good ground.  Flemenstar seems to have been fine on genuinely good ground too at Fairyhouse.

They could always race in Britain to see if he handles decent ground. A trip over for the Argento might be wise anyway to see if he can hanlde the travel and the course.

I'd like to see a strong Irish challenge this year for the Hennessy.  3m2f and the most valuable handicap behind the National all season.  Denman won off 161 and 174, therefore top horses can win it.  Good trial and Gold Cup 2nd ran in it this year TGB.  Flemenstar 163??? Hidden Cyclone 141??? Nicholls always targets the race.  Usually a cracker, although last season was a little disappointing.

I think it would also be a good race for Weapons Amnesty (152 when last rated) and Jessies Dream (151) if they're fit. Funnily enough though, horses who've done well in the Hennessey in the last 15-odd years have a lousy record at the Festival (except the mighty Denman). It would be good to see a top class field - it's one of the highlights of the season.

WA If he ever races again would be very interesting off that mark if fitness was assured.  JD, I simply can't have that generation of novices. The worst ever!!!!!  Based on what the rest of his generation have done, the handicap mark looks a bit high.

Shock, I expect you're right about JD but he was probably the best of that bunch and he hasn't had a chance to fail (if you know what I mean). WA might be dropped a few pounds after 30 months off in which case he'd have a stunning mark at anywhere near full fitness. It's probably dreaming that we'll see him again though.

I'd have thought Giggs would have enough Ammo to target this race, if only to see where they stand against this side of the Irish sea.  Can't believe I am trying to second guess, what they will be doing in 7 months.  Wishing my life away.

Yes but Giggy lost owners title this year to JP and they'll want to win that back so might keep most horses home bar maybe sending FL to Kempton for King George.

Shock I love the Hennessy it's one of my fav races, Denmans 2nd win will always be the best race ever for me, hands down, no contest magic moment. It'll be a cracking renewal this year with the wealth of improving 2nd season chasers. I'm already nailed to the mast on Invictus who'll be on an excellent mark.

Problem with Irish horses going over is English Handicapper is harsh on our horses, he wants ours to stay home so English trainers get the wins and prize money. So we usualy go up 6-8lbs on our mark when we race in England.

where will knockfierna go next year?

CVB, they may enter to see what mark they get over here.  Just so many like for like horses, it seems a no brainer to me. A lot depends on the going and yes on Reynoldstown form Invictus does look reasonably handicapped.  Is he ok as off since, plenty of time though to get fit.  Helpston from the Reynoldstown will be interesting next season off 140 IMO.

Good call re Invictus (151). He is a beautiful looking horse. I like him loads, he jumps beautifully. My only concern is the speed he shows. He looks very classy. I just wonder if more of a slogger (a high class one, like Bob's) may be one for the Hennessy. I also wonder if Kingy may just take a softer option FTO (though that mark looks too good to waste potentially).

CVB - do you think he is a genuine CGC horse?

I love Weapons Amnesty, even though when he won his two Cheltenham races I never backed him.  I backed Pride of Dulcote in the Albert Bartlett and Punchestowns in his RSA win.  I have backed him for the Gold Cup the past two years though when he hasn't turned up, so won't be doing that again this year.

I also think his handicap mark is very workable, but my only reservation would be that he seems to run a good few pounds below his best away from Cheltenham.

I remember he wasn't particularly impressive at Newcastle, got beat in a beginners chase at Punchestown and beaten twice at Leopardstown before his RSA win.  There might be valid reasons for all of them, but I think he is a different animal at Cheltenham where he has ran to, or above, his mark each time - if the Hennesy was there then I'd back him in a heartbeat.

Well RC he did do it well and grind the victory at Ascot, he looked like a perfect RSA horse, a dour stayer. That's why I think he's tailor made for the Hennessy. He should be suited to the Gold Cup trip imo, but he'd have to be winning the Hennessy off 151 if he's ever going to have the chance of winning the Gold Cup.

Do I think he'll be good enough to win a Gold Cup, gut says no, but I need to see him run again to make my mind up.

Well Chief, WA has always needed good ground which he gets at Cheltenham but not in ireland.

It should be interesting to see how Invictus develops next yr. The thing i love most about that horse is his jumping. He has incredible scope and exuberance and that will certainly stand him in good stead. It may also be to his advantage that his did not end up having a hard season.

FL was purchased to win the Gold Cup, I can't see him in the Ryanair

They'll have one or two in the Ryanair (their race of course) with somewhere between 3 and 7 high quality staying chaasers to choose from.

Cant be the only one hoping Noel Meade runs Pandorama in the Welsh National?

GOLD Cup hero Imperial Commander yesterday took a significant step on the road to making a racing comeback, writes Jonathan Herbert.

He was brought in from a field to begin road work at Kevin and Eyssen Ross' Mount Top Stud just outside Belfast.

The exercise is aimed at building up his fitness before he goes back into training with Nigel Twiston-Davies at his stable in Guiting Power.

Imperial Commander has been recuperating at Mount Top Stud, where he has spent summers throughout his career, since sustaining a season-ending tendon injury in September.

Ian Robinson, spokesman for owners Our Friends In The North, said the 2010 Gold Cup winner's chances of racing again looked bright.

"He looks fantastic and scans on the leg have come back clear twice," he said. "He's had a good long break and fingers crossed everything will go to plan.

"We'll take it step by step and get a lot of road work into him so the tendon is nice and strong.

"There's no reason why he won't race again because the leg has come back fine and everyone looking after him has done a fantastic job."

He said plans for Imperial Commander will become clearer after Richard Bevis, his regular work rider, puts him through his paces at Twiston-Davies' stable.

If Twiston-Davies and Bevis are happy with the 11-year-old, his first big target will be the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 24, which he won in 2010.

That's good news - it will be great to see the old boy back. I can't see him troubling the judge in the Gold Cup at his age, but hopefully he'll have one or two glorious days to come.

NTD good trainer no doubt but what does he do to them that they get serious injuries. Jim Old is the worst no doubt but he's not really a relevant trainer anyhow. Just alarms me that seems to be every year you see a dozen or so of NTD's coming off 2+ year breaks.

Think thats unfair about NTD imo. He has a very hard gallops, uphill quite steeply, this will suit some horses better than others and probably bring out injuries in horses that are already there but I wouldnt say it causes them. IC injury wasnt caused by him as he is just a fundamentally unsound horse, NTD has actually done incredibly well to get him to win anything never mind a CGC. Wont know anything about the horse until he comes back into proper training and shows he still wants to be a racehorse but if thats the case IMO 66/1 for the CGC is still worth a cheeky £2 e/w :)

Mossey Joe - Beaten today over hurdles and beaten last time when fell by Sir Des Champs on heavy may well improve when he gets proper good going again.  All best form is on good and his first 3 chases (IMO would have won easily when finished 5th when all but fell)looked classy.  Connections were prepared to take on SDC on unfavourable ground and is a massive price for the Gold Cup which is usually good going.  Has to improve but at the price I've had a go.  Hard to see it getting the going in Ireland though.  Would be intersting for the Hennessy going dependent. Can win after a lay off.

:) machine I tell you

So whats Nicholls doing with AFerof and Silv Conti??

Are they both going for GC??

Personally think both have proved they should,SC cos hes beating Gold Cup horses and is an improver,and AF cos he loves the place,is also improving and looks like he will stay,although admit it aint definite.
Looks like AF is going for KG,,so that should tell them if he stays or not,although personally i aint sure Kempton will suit him like Cheltenham does.

Anyone heard anything?,i was at Ascot yesterday so have missed any interviews,in particular in relation to SC at haydock.

silvino def going for gold cup ,possibly straight to chelt,no real mention of al ferof going gold ,reckon they will keep options open and see about al ferof after king george . plus side is that nicholls has run more than 2 in gold cup before  hales is a strong character and  knows that you dont get many gold cup horses and like any owner surely want to give his horse a go at the ultimate chasing prize .

cheers Foyles.
yep,hopefully he proves he stays,and owner should have an influence knowing him!!
if he does stay,hes a proper Gold Cup horse,no doubt.

Hopefully Nicholls doesn't waste Al Ferof's talent by putting him in the Ryanair

think that only happens if they aint convinced he stays.Next race is important.

What do people make of Hidden Cyclone? Strange lack of discussion given his obvious talent, personally think he's really exciting. Shark has always had him as a Gold Cup beast and we've yet to see the best of him since he wants better ground and a trip but has still been disposing of very useful rivals, readily dispatching Call The Police yesterday with conditions against him.

Think he's a sleeping giant,Shark has been very careful with his handling of the horse,Really wanted to see him in the Hennessy but guess they wanted to keep him at home and slowly bring him to the boil....Is he Durkan or Lexus bound ?

Lexus, Shark said he was only entered in the John Durkan incase of a mishap in plans. Will be fascinating to see how he gets on there against the likes of Sir Des Champs and Flementar. Hidden Cyclone was just over a length behind Sir Des Champs last year, and while obviously both will have improved, I don't really understand the discrepancy in their prices.

Thanks,Think the 3 miles is just what he needs,
I have him as a major player for all the top races on both sides of the pond currently,
I can understand why he is much bigger than SDC for the GC as 1 has won at the last 2 festival's whereas the other has yet to show he can travel over and run to a similar level which is always a concern for me,Course and festival form stands for a lot,
Good luck and hopefully we'll see him strut his stuff at Prestbury Park next March.

How you know Hidden Cyclone wants better ground? Form looks the same on both types of ground to me.

Yeah good point about the Cheltenham form. We know he has no problem with going left handed or with undulations but while Cheltenham is unique you'd be disappointed if that was his undoing. At 20 points bigger than SDC I have him as a cracking bet and will continue topping up.
You too, lets hope we're bumping this in March with glasses of Moet apiece

GCW, fairly sure I read it somewhere. I know that sounds spurious! But in his reappearance the ground was cited as a reason that might play against him, ergo better ground seems optimal. Plus his trainer said before yesterday taht he simply "handles heavy ground" rather than requires it.

Nicholls said: "I will talk to Ruby and John and see the handicapper's reaction but yesterday's win will rule handicaps out, so in an ideal world the King George is the obvious race to go for.

"He's got to be a strong contender. He has progressive form and he stayed on strongly yesterday. Kauto achieved no more than he did when he won the Old Roan before he went on to win the King George that year and arguably Al Ferof probably achieved more. Until he really gets the trip you can never be sure he will stay.

"The way he stayed on with that weight and ran up the hill you would have to think on a flatter track he probably will stay.

"I wouldn't want to be thinking about three and a quarter miles in a Gold Cup this season unless he tells us differently because he still has plenty of toe, but I would have thought Kempton would be perfect for him."

Given the above quote  you'd have to think that Al ferof is going to have to win the KG or be running on well into a place
to have any chance of running in the Gold Cup.

Weapons Amnesty back in full training

I dislike that quote, we want Al Ferof in the Gold Cup

Backing: Cue Card, Medermit
Laying: Long Run, Synchronised (after last years CGC), Burton Port, The Giant Bolster

I expect the winner to be appearing in the Gold Cup for the first time. I am unsure of the Irish challengers though. I usually just oppose them and will probably do so again especially Sir Des Champs who does not look a CGC winner to me

Try to get as much on CC as I can at the price before the KG and then hopefully shorten after he runs well enough to be targeted

crossing fingers only though

Bit of a drift on Hidden Cyclone from 28s roughly to 46 Any ideas why? Just a reaction to the last couple of weeks, i.e. Silviniaco and Bobs Worth, or something amiss?

After the success of Murchu at Fairyhouse yesterday, John 'Shark' Hanlon updated the press on his stable star, Hidden Cyclone.
The County Carlow based handler said: "He's in great form. He came out of Gowran like he never had a race.

"He'll go for the Lexus. It looks a good race but he has to take on the best sometime.

"I've always said in time that he might be a Gold Cup horse. Maybe he will and maybe he won't – maybe it'll be a year down the road."


From this mornin

Cheers BJG. Wasn't the light campaign last year in aid of getting him to Cheltenham this year

However, if he's to have any chance in a Gold Cup he needs to run very well in the Lexus and if he does so, surely connections couldn't refuse going to Cheltenham, especially if he comes out and wins the Lexus.

I think sometimes trainers in looking after horses end up missing the boat in terms of them being competitive at Cheltenham..Joncol anyone

gold cup is shaping up to be the best race of the festival this year, strength in depth is the best I think I've seen. first 6 in the betting are all exciting horses.

throw in a few more possibles ,cue card ,al ferof ,for non stop ,and a few others then we have a real race on our hands !

indeed it is wide open, really exciting... again!

exactly, first 8 or 9 in the betting will probably be all rated at least in the high 160s, crazy.

Flemenstar and Sir des Champs both look short to back at 7.6 each on here

IF and it is indeed a huge IF just imagine the race we could have if the line up was something like this; Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar, Long Run, First Lieutenant, Tidal Bay,S Conti, Al Ferof, The Giant Bolster, Cue Card, Last Installment, Hidden Cyclone, Medermit, Burton Port.
Would never happen but could well be one of the most competitive ever!

Don't forget Imperial Commander, might be getting and unlikely to win but if fit and well makes it even more inetresting

getting ON

imagine that race!! sometimes its almost a shame some bubbles get burst before the big day, would love to see 5/6 unbeaten horses in teh big one.