Simonsig 4/1 for 2013 Arkle with Sid James and Spoyle

This is an absolute shat price, if only becasue the Neptune appeared one of the weaker renewals. Not saying he won't win mind but you might want this price for him to get there.

Thing is nowadays antepost betting for the Festival is bigger than ever so bookies can get away with offering crap prices because people will take them

Arvike will go further than 2m surely?

Utter joke price. People gobbled up Peddlers Cross @ 6/1 around this time and look how that turned out.

He hasn't jumped a fence yet. Plus that Supreme looked a great renewal. Plus Alderwood is going chasing too and he won 3/3 at the festivals this spring. Mullins is thinking of sending Champagne Fever over fences straight away too.

There are loads of horses there to bear Simonsig, who imo won 2 weak races. Would he have won the Supreme?

So to sum up. People who take 4/1 about Simonsig now are morons. There is no other word for it. Morons.

Take the price CVB,all he needs to do is stay fit and thats very likely,stop listing off horses as it is a complete waste of time,Simonsig will would make Sprinter Sacre look like the walking wounded! when he turns up for next years Arkle at odds on having won all his preps on the bridle,i will bump your post above and clearly state

'you should have taken the 4/1 moron'

CV, you're right about that. he should be a 10/1 (ish) shot. There must even be a question about him going chasing next season. You are also spot on about the correlation between hurdles form and chase form.

However, I need to take issue with you about the Supreme. You've argued vigorously that the Gold Cup this year was weak, in part becaue the first five finished close together. Yet you say the first five were close together in the Supreme but that's OK becuase they look a good bunch to you. I don't see how you can have it both ways.

Sporting Life seems to think Simonsig is going 3 m hurdling

"Perhaps next year we will find out the true level of Big Buck's ability as Simonsig (160) is the highest rated Novice Hurdler for 6 years. It is not often that a Hurdler wins at Cheltenham and Aintree by a combined total of 22 lengths and he looks sure to improve and give the great Big Buck's a run for his money."

Who are the alternatives in the Arkle though? Captain Conan would be one if going 2m chasing (anyone heard anything??) Is Alderwood definitly going chasing? Anything else stand out as value at this stage

So no matter if Simonsig is pegasus, taking effective odds of 5/2 before he jumps a fence is for the cream of the moron crop. Utter clueless idiots who are guaranteed make annual losses on their betting.


but I agree

Fingal Bay showed up Simonsig at Sandown.Shame it got injured. It wasnt 100% at Aintree.

Shame these two are going chasing as i would love to see them taking on Big Bucks.

I do not take the Sandown beating by Fingal literally, as good as I think Fingal is. I'd also not take Fingla's Aintree run literally.

He has always looked like he needs a fence and could well be Sprinter Sacre mark 11. Big ask at this stage - Sprinter was 10/1 at this time last year - and I've not heard Simonsig talked about in the same breath in terms of sheer speed. He won't be able to jump any better either.

Simonsig was always thought of as a chaser, he looks class and if lining up in the Arkle unbeaten would be a very short favourite....however at 4/1 before he's jumped a fence and without the nrnb angle its hard to find an argument to back him. Saying that though I do enjoy antepost betting and I'm not seeing anything that is value in this market at the moment

It's called 'athletic' stront!

He looks the likeliest winner at this stage but we are 9 months away and a lot can happen. I hope he is the business because his owner is a lovely bloke - very down to earth despite being filthy rich and has the game in his blood. Rode in points when he was young and I believe he still hunts - daft as a brush on a horse too apparently - will try and jump any obstacle.

Very strong for the Champion hurdle the last 2 weeks, 25 into around 12 amid rumours of poor schooling over fences


A good piece for those interested in some light reading!

http://tommarch.blogspot.co.uk/

Simonsig Sized Shake-Up?
The Cheltenham Festival might seem a long way away but for National Hunt enthusiasts it is never far from our thoughts: as one four day extravaganza draws to a close our attentions turn to the next with a near seamless transition. Flat racing through the summer months offers an adequate substitute but little more than that and it is certainly no comparison to the 'proper' action which will begin in earnest in October.

With that in mind, the very very interesting news that I promised. I am somewhat biased but I can think of few potential developments that would rank alongside let alone supersede this one. I have had questions, and lots of them. Is it a hurdler? Is it a chaser? Is it a novice? And so on. At the end of last season the answers would have been a definite 'no, yes, yes'. However, if what I have read is correct then the answers would be 'yes, no, no'. The horse in question is currently a short priced favourite for the Arkle and also features near the top of the Champion Hurdle market. His name is Simonsig.

Last season, Geraghty said that "he really wants a fence" and that "he'll be a better chaser than a hurdler I'd imagine which would make him very exciting". Henderson said that "he's done his bit now and that's probably the last time we'll see him over hurdles". Clearly the plan was to go chasing but I understand that David Minton said at the Million In Mind open day that the new plan was to stay over hurdles with the Champion Hurdle as his target. It is worth bearing in mind that Nicky Henderson has said in an interview with At The Races on 9th August that he "would like to think he's an Arkle horse". However, even that apparent declaration of intent provides clear evidence of a shift in their thinking. Henderson also said "if he went to fences" making it clear that Simonsig going chasing is no formality. There was also something strange about the question that Mick Fitzgerald asked. He asked about trip when surely the obvious question was hurdling or fences. Perhaps I am reading too much into it but it appeared that the matter was deliberately avoided. Another point of interest is that Minton was putting up Simonsig as his banker and charity bet in the Neptune at Festival Preview Evenings long before Henderson had committed him to the race. Is he one step ahead of the game once again?



Interestingly there has been a noticeable reaction in the Champion Hurdle market on Betfair with him being matched as low as 12.0 a week ago having been available at 18.5 the week before that, and nearer 25.0 not long before that. He has drifted a little subsequently after the Henderson interview but it would appear that the money has followed the news to a certain extent. It is also worth pointing out that he remains a clear favourite in the newly opened Arkle market on Betfair but has drifted a little from as low as 4.0 to 5.0, admittedly for small money. Whatever your interpretation of the market moves, Simonsig's Champion Hurdle market activity summary shows a marked downward trend, especially when compared to other leading contenders. Significant? Maybe.



It was clear that connections felt certain that chasing was his game. It does beg the question as to why this has possibly changed. One obvious reason is the presence of stablemate Sprinter Sacre in the 2m chase division, another is the abundance of novice chase prospects at Seven Barrows, also that Simonsig has schooled poorly or that Henderson has decided that the Champion Hurdle is up for grabs with his flying grey.

Last season he showed that he had an exceptional engine but there was also evidence of possible jumping frailties. Quotes of 10/3 for the Arkle when he has never jumped a regulation fence in public and had jumped less than perfectly in his points and hurdle races is of little interest. As the saying goes, jumping is the name of the game, and an engine alone is not enough if the fences prove a continual problem. He would have won his points even easier had there been no obstacles standing in his path: his maiden at Kirkistown - http://www.p2ptv.ie/?tube=102 and a winners of two at Limavady - http://www.p2ptv.ie/?tube=104. Nevertheless, I think it is possible that too much has been made of his jumping by many. When he is good he is very good but he has yet to learn to shorten when required. There is every chance that will come with time and experience and when the hurdles/fences do not break his imperious stride he will take even more catching.

I think both the Champion Hurdle and the Arkle are lacking a little in quality at this stage and Simonsig's claims in both look outstanding. A thorough perusal of the quoted Arkle contenders leaves one in little doubt that his short price is understandable. Similarly, in the Champion Hurdle, Hurricane Fly heads the market followed by Rock On Ruby, Spirit Son, Cinders And Ashes, Grandouet, Zarkandar and Darlan. The first thing to note is the dominance of Henderson. Does it suggest a lack of confidence in his challenge that Simonsig is possibly being rerouted? Or perhaps one should interpret it as a vote of confidence in Simonsig's chance? Certainly many or all of the above have question marks hanging over them, notably Hurricane Fly who will be a flat bred 9yo exposed off a strong pace, Spirit Son and Grandouet who have injury absences to overcome, and Cinders And Ashes and Darlan who looked the best of only a moderate bunch of 2m novices last season. The temptation for Henderson to play a trump card in the shape of Simonsig in the premier hurdle race of the season is understandable, especially if it means that he is kept away from his other ace in the pack, Sprinter Sacre.

I am indifferent to the news as a racing fan because the Arkle would have been great but the Champion Hurdle is just as good. As a betting man I am possibly rather pleased. He is 10/3 for the Arkle and 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle and I think he could win either. Unfortunately I was too slow to snaffle the juiciest prices for the Champion Hurdle on Betfair when I first heard the news but if he is indeed headed down that route then prices around the 14/1 mark make plenty of appeal, even with lingering uncertainty as to his chosen campaign. I think his current price allows for a deal of doubt about his target and, if my interpretation of the current situation is correct, he will be a good deal shorter in not very long. If I am wrong then so be it. With a run he rates as the most likely winner in my book and, at the prices, the gamble on his participation is one worth taking. It makes enough appeal for me to be sorely tempted to break my unwritten rule against antepost bets before the start of the season proper, adding him to my portfolio that currently includes Sanctuaire at 66/1 for the Champion Chase, Riverside Theatre at 75/1 for the King George/Gold Cup double and Silviniaco Conti at 33/1 for the King George. So very sorely tempted.

2pts Win Simonsig Champion Hurdle at around 15.0 on Betfair

Game of opinions stakey innit


Last year they didnt go for the Supreme as they felt his jumping was not good at speed. Thats not good for the Champion imo - he's a ptp winner so must be able to jump a fence!

I'll be astonished if this pitches up in the Champion Hurdle. David Minton is entitled to his views but Ronnie Bartlett and NJH will decide the horse's programme. It's got bugger all to do with the Million in Mind partnership.

The vibes at the end of last yr were that he would go over fences; recently (it is suggested) the vibes indicate a CH tilt - it seems safe therefore to assume the new hurdling angle is based on something that has happened recently and not (for eg) a schooling problem identified at the end of last term.

1. Do we know that the horse has even been schooled since his summer break, or even if he has even returned yet?  Their Arkle horse often appears late November. Schooling is not always done 2 - 3 months before a run and a week or two since returning to training. Invariably dry weather prevents schooling and whilst that is unlikely to be a problem this term I would not think it certain he has entered any kind of serious work yet or begun schooling. Others may be able to confirm it but I am not sure it is publicly certain yet.

2. He has PTP form. He won FTO on ground arguably too soft (an excuse given for his defeat at Sandown) and was then impressive at Limavady where he jumped well and looked supremely talented. He fell in between but my understanding is that exuberance did for him that day.

3. Hurdles technique alternated between sublime and novicey. Almost whenever he was 'asked' he was good. The mistake (if it can be called that) at Sandwon can be attributed by Jump City carrying him slightly left immediately before the flight. The mistake in the Neptune was fiddly and novicey rather than serious. The error at Aintree can IMO be attributed to the speed he arrived at the flight. None of these were in anyway serious mistakes. The error at Kelso was more serious but connections blamed the sun (which was very low that day fwiw).

4. After the Neptune the trainer and the jockey noted -

"He's a class act, but he's more of a chaser of the making." "He was still a bit untidy, but he'll learn and he's going to go and jump fences. I think the bigger the obstacle we might find the better he'll jump"

After Aintree -

"He's done his bit now and that's probably the last time we'll see him over hurdles. Barry thinks it's time to go over fences. He sees this trip out well, but I'd have thought we'll start off over fences over two miles to just let him go and jump.

Geraghty: "He did everything so easily and they were probably going too slow for him. He missed one or two and I didn't want to set sail too early. He really wants a fence. He jumped hurdles well, but he can be a little bit careless."

5. Their other ammunition perhaps should not influence their preferred early target but I imagine it might. I would have thought they had more obvious CH types, no matter what we think of their chances - Grandouet, Darlan, Spirit Son (nap), Binocular. It is known Simonsig went in the Neptuine to give Barry a chance to organise his jumping. I am not sure his hurdling would be helped over 2 in the Champion.

He may not always be a fluent hurdler and we can only base our best guesses on the evidence we have but I would have thought the indications at this stage strongly suggest he will go over fences. I have no doubt whatsoever he has the engine for a Champion tilt but I would be surprised if that is the plan. Some great looking horses who appeared built for fences have flopped; some scrappy hurdlers have been made by fences. We will not know till connections confirm their plan or till he jumps in public. 'Size' + 'scope' do not always = 'chaser', but this horse has size and scope in bags and to me he does scream chaser.

Pure speculation, but i wonder if his price contraction might be related to Spirit Son's slight price slide. Hurdling smoothness is key surely in the CH, and whilst that might not have been Simonsig's forte, i would say his engine speed and class is superior to Grandouet, Darlan and maybe now Binocular (I assume OW goes over fences) - I would not back Simonsig to beat Spirit Son in a CH, but if a doubt remains about him, that might influence their decision. Only speculation.

Anybody backing him over fences should be wary as he wasnt a natural in his PTP's.