Cheltenham Festival
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Why it has to be Binocular in the Champion Hurdle?.
Why it has to be Binocular in the Champion Hurdle?.
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Replies: 66
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it was a question,not really a assertion
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you can't affect the outcome so there is no right or wrong in betting
if you have a solid reason for a selection then the outcome is irrelevant. What matters is the outcome over many hundreds of selections - this determines the skillful bettor from the less skillful |
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Smashed ROR 20/1 e/w myself, was confident but now there's alot of people talking it up in the press bound to dissappoint.
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Eeternaloptimist - I get that Binocular didn't lose his crown, rather he forfeited by missing the race. I take your point about the running of the Ranobank and Binocular's tactic., I was using it not only as a form guide between the two, but also for the fact is has provided 4 Champion Hurdle winners in the past 12 years as to another trend indicating The Fly's chances.
As you may have guessed, I'm a stickler for trends to support my understanding of form. I wouldn't begrudge Binocular a victory, it's just I have a financial interest in The Fly. judorick - indeed it is, and why Cheltenham in particular is a sporting event without parallel! Nothing like a good bit of discussion about our selections and why. Always learn something, or see another angle when you talk it out. thieveslikeus - if my Auntie had balls she'd be my Uncle :) Could I not equally argue that without his own setbacks Hurricane Fly would have been to the Festival three times by now? It's a petty argument on my part, but hopefully you can see what I am getting at! I'll be more than happy to come on here and hold my hands up if/when The Fly gets beat, but my reading of the form and trends leads me to believe Hurricane Fly has something in-hand and I have yet to be convinced otherwise. |
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CH - "Could I not equally argue that without his own setbacks Hurricane Fly would have been to the Festival three times by now? It's a petty argument on my part, but hopefully you can see what I am getting at!"
Petty or not, you already did argue that, which is what I was answering... |
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When bino came 2nd he got beat by punjabi and also in a photo finish with celestral halo and in my opinion they were both handicappers maybe G3 at best. When bino won the champion he beat khyber kim into 2nd who again is another haandicapper in what had to be a crap champion. The hurricane wins grade 1's beating grade 1 horses as u like and that includes beating bino at punchestown 9 lengths as easy as u like. Even overturn has beat bino 4.5 lengths this year. Just saying...
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The Fly looks a banker, it has to be said.
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avinitoff
Any detailed response will seem like excuse making for Bino. I don't think I need to make excuses for the horse. If you really know the horse then all what you put whilst strictly accurate can be explained quite easily. Every single point. The simple fact is that he polairises opinion. Some are for him and some are against him. As long as he finishes in the first 3 I can afford to be wrong. |
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looks a nailed on place to me,he always runs well at Cheltenham,in good form and most importantly his jumping looked as good as it ever has lto and thats the key for him.He will have a nice pace with OT and CH,and only thing stopping him placing is if ROR and Zark are better than him on the day,i doubt both will be.
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He could win if hes right back to his best,he aint far behind HF.
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Goddamn this thread! Your reasoned responses have me a little nervous now this morning!
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They've got that glint in their eye. From JP to AP. I think that they think that they would have the winner with The Fly not in the race and that he is going to give the champ a good run for his money.
My thoughts exactly. |
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Interesting Avinitoff. I think the argument revolves around people's perception of class: Khyber Kim, Punjabi, Go Native, Celestial Halo, Zaynar, Starluck, Solwhit vs Oscar Whisky, Peddlers Cross, Thousand Stars, Menorah, Overturn and Clerk's Choice. Obviously Fly's opposition had a touch more hype and illusion of confidence and the added bonus of being the more fresher memory in our minds then Binocular's win a year further ago.
How about my personal perception that Fly's opponents are all much better suited to further whilst Menorah's International Hurdle form is definitely not good enough and surely nowhere near what Binocular's oppositions had achieved? Am I wrong? Take the fifth of both races. Starluck vs Menorah. Starluck as a 4yo off level weight went to within a neck of 6yo Go Native in the Xmas hurdle. Menorah had achieved nowhere near that level of form shown yet has actually run to a higher mark then Starluck according to the official handicapper in beating a hype horse in Cue Card 4.5l who subsequently only finished fourth in the Supreme and was beaten soundly by Spirit Son at Aintree. I just can't understand Peddlers Cross' rating either as he beat Bygones of Brid, Starluck, Reve De Sivola and Scriptwriter, form that doesn't really scream out as Champion Hurdler yet beaten by Hurricane Fly put his rating up to 170???? Perhaps the Fly really didn't run up to 170+? It's the same thing with Sizing Europe. Did he REALLY run to 170+ in beating Kauto Stone and a below par Big Zeb? why is it not possible he could've simply ran to 160? Take away the prices and betting for 5 mins. Look at it from a simplistic view and the way people are quick to anoint the likes of Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross above Binocular's supposedly "handicappers" opposition and the way the handicapper has rated Peddlers Cross' chase form this season tells me this coming clash between Bino and the Fly is tight to call. Throw in Binocular's health, fitness, almost perfect preparation physically and from a statistical viewpoint vs the Fly's preparation and his sole run this season, you'd be thinking Binocular has a real chance. Personally I'm on RoR EW ante-post and Binocular without the Fly EW ante-post. I see no reason to get involved again but if i haven't a bet, I'd be thinking "hang on why the hell is Hurricane Fly as short as he is vs Binocular?" Apologies if the above doesn't make sense! GL all |
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I love your original post, Eaternaloptimist.
If Binocular turns up with the same positive mental attitude that he had at Wincanton he has every chance of winning. I'm a huge fan of the horse and I'm just thrilled that he is being seen as a real threat to Hurricanne Fly. I'm expecting Binocular to win,but will be happy if he comes a good second  |
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You win some, you lose some. Game run by Rock on Ruby. How Overturn came 2nd I don't know...
Looked to me like Hurricane Fly and Binocular gave them too big a lead and couldn't get close enough turning for home |
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Bino would have had more chance had AP not been so obsessed with tracking HF imo,he normally has him a lot closer in his races.
Fair play to the jockeys of the first 2,they knew what they were on and deserved to be 1st and 2nd,no doubt. |
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Run the race again and the result would be very different.
Overturn is the marker in this race. |
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judorick exposed as clueless yet again,Stick to the Tennis fella
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CleverName 12 Mar 12 23:09
it really is incredible that so many of you lot still think Binocular is a good horse,He has never beaten a decent horse in his life So when Binocular beat Rock On Ruby and Overturn in the Christmas Hurdle, he didn't beat decent horses? Think it is you that is shown to be clueless here. As well as being downright rude and unnecessarily nasty. |
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Correct,Rock on Ruby is another average winner,in the same league as Katchit.Hurricane Fly is Ten Times the horse ROR is,He didn't run his race for whatever reason,i'll be quite happy to lay ROR in every race he turns up in from now on,and if he were ever to meet the Fly again he'd have no chance,So in conclusion,Binocular is a bang average Horse
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What an idjit. I am completely embarrassed for you.
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what;s an idjit?did u just make up that word?
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I clearly underestimated your stupidity, should have realised when you said "been" instead of "being" on that disgraceful topic you started. You should seek therapy in my view. Your anger issues are clearly exacerbating your already poor judgement.
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Go to bed,you loser.and don't be obsessed with anonymous people on an internet forum,
Cant be good for your health |
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Says the person starting topics just to attack another person!
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I can only judge for myself but judorick seems a pretty clued up sort but then my own judgement has to be in question after that shambles today.
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