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Mr Eboue
11 Mar 12 23:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Sep 09
| Topic/replies: 26,470 | Blogger: Mr Eboue's blog
Maguire didnt turn up.

Elliot was great value. He thinks Rubi Light has no chance in the ryanair. He said the jockey gave him a shocker last time out. ( far too hard on him ).

Elliot said his best chance was shadow cather in the triumph. Seemed very sweet. Said he'd be a stone better than Carlito brigante who ran in the same race 2 years ago.

Other than that no useful info.
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Report BJG March 11, 2012 11:04 PM GMT
Come back to this page this Sunday 11 March 2012 when I'll be live blogging the Official Cheltenham Festival Preview from Cheltenham Racecourse. Event starts at 7pm.

Abbreviations for panel:

Alan Lee (AL)
Gordon Elliott (GE)
Aidan Coleman (AE)
Noel O'Brien (NO)
Tanya Stephenson (TS)
Mick Fitzgerald (MF)
Russ Wiseman (RW)

All set up now with power and WiFi sorted. Panel will start to preview Cheltenham Festival 2012 in about 25 minutes. Only TS is here so far. While you're waiting for the fun to start why not check out our preview videos? The main Festival news tonight is that Boston Bob goes for the Albert Bartlett on the Friday as opposed to the Neptune.

Audience is being asked to take their seats and lights are being dimmed. Lots of people here...way more than last year. I reckon around 1200.

Intro by Mary, Chair of Cheltenham and Three Counties Race Club. Alan Lee introduces Edward Gillespie who says course is in great nick and grass is terrific...never known it better. Good news. Watering will continue tomorrow. Going is good (good to soft) in places although Ed thinks it's good to soft. New course is half a point less good at moment with watering scheduled for Wednesday. Light drizzle forecast for Friday but otherwise sunny. Ticket sales are 10,000 ahead of last year.

RW says a few words about Sportingbet. He informs us that the lovely Sportingbet ladies will 'help us in any way'. Might take them up on that.

AL introduces panel. Jason Maguire not on the panel tonight and is replaced by Aidan Coleman (AC). Tanya Stephenson (TS) gets a good round of applause. Senior handicapper from Ireland Noel O'Brien (NO) in the house. AL reminds us that Gordon Elliott (GE) trained 2 winners at Festival last year. Rider of 14 winners Mick Fitzgerald (MF) is here to complete the panel.

Supreme Novices Hurdle
RW - Points out that more open than usual.
AC - Darlan has impressed Aidan and also likes Vulcanite.
MF - MF needs to speak up a bit! He's watched Darlan school and all is A1. No issues with confidence. Gives Tetlami a big chance too.
TS - Likes Hazy Tom thinking sounder surface will suit him better and also like Colour Squadron and also Distant Memories (50/1 shot).
NO - Steps To Freedom is top rated of Irish and is joint top rated for the race with Tetlami. Jessica Harrington is bullish. Also mentions that Trifolium is progressive and good value at 14/1.
GE - Steps To Freedom is classy although might have too much speed. Says Cinders And Ashes is best ride of week according to Jason Maguire.

Please comment on this page below or tweet me at @jpfestival.

Arkle Chase
MF - Sprinter Sacre is best horse he's seen since he retired. Nicky Henderson very excited about him. He's 'the real deal'. Much stronger this year.
AC - Sprinter Sacre not yet put to test but looks superior.
NO - Looks very good. Top rated on 161. Jessica Harrington not impressed with Barry G's comments about 'best horse he's ridden'. 'What about Moscow Flyer?!', she said.
GE - SS looks really special. No one else has mentioned another horse yet!
TS - Also for Sprinter Sacre...unusual she's going for a shorty. Since 1998 every horse that has finished in the first 3 in Supreme has not won at following Festival so not good for Al Ferof..at last another horse mentioned. But she has an each way one....Menorah. She has same theory as Ben Aitken @narrowthefield in that if Menorah goes faster he'll jump better. Cue Card won't go fast enough.
RW - Likes Al Ferof and thinks bookies have a chance of getting Sprinter Sacre beaten.

Champion Hurdle
RW - Difficult to find contender to beat Hurricane Fly.
NO - Hurricane Fly looks every bit as good as last year. Thinks it's an easier race than last year.
GE - Looks the best since Istabraq.
TS - Likes Overturn for an each way and he's good when fresh.
AC - Liked Zarkandar's run at Newbury.
MF - Potentially Rock On Ruby is smart but Hurricane Fly is a cut above. Never seen Binocular look better. Likes Zarkandar as form of Triumph is strong.

Other Tuesday races
MF - Likes Molotov wherever he runs.
Mares Hurdle
TS - Terre Du Vent could be good each way against Quevega in Mares.
GE - Quevega will win if she stands up. Quite likes Shop DJ.
AC - Rides Tempest River.

JLT Speciality
AC - Venetia Williams is really in form. Rides Carrick Boy which is his best chance on first day.

Cross Country
NO - It's a big type of event in Ireland. Quality of horse has improved in recent years.
GE - Tony Martin fancies his horse in this - Sadlers Storm.

Neptune Hurdle
GE - Mount Benbulbin goes for Albert Bartlett not Neptune.
NO - Monksland is unbeaten and is hugely progressive and unexposed. Liked by Noel Meade. Form connected with Boston Bob. Best of the Irish.
MF - Simonsig looks very smart. Proven at top level. Scoped bad after being beaten by Fingal Bay at Newbury.
TS - Likes Batonnier in this. 2nd best best of meeting. Came into reckoning on Festival Trials Day with win. Also likes Cotton Mill following Ambion Wood win on Saturday.
RW - Monksland very well backed today with Sportingbet.
AC - Likes Simonsig.

RSA Chase
RW - Think they can get Grands Crus beat. Will be offering 13/8.
AC - Thinks Grands Crus is beatable too and likes Bobs Worth.
MF - Has been disappointed with Bobs Worth but thinks following wind op and back left handed he'll go well. Just a bit worried he'll struggle to hold his position though.
GE - Really likes Sirs De Champs and thinks he'll win Gold Cup next year.
NO - Sir De Champs looks good. First Lieutenant is different type of horse. Join Together is best of English.
TS - Teaforthree could give Join Together a form boost in 4 miler. Says Paul Nicholls is very keen on Join Together. Likes Bobs Worth best though.

Just clocked that 2600 people are reading this! More than double last year. Hope you're all finding it useful.

Queen Mother
NO - Can't believe Big Zeb was himself last time out. Sizing Europe looks as strong this year as last. Pensioners are top in this race! Sizing Europe is clearer at the top than any other horse running at Festival.
MF - Sizing Europe is one that comes back again and again to Cheltenham. Revels at Cheltenham. Finians Rainbow is well and Nicky Henderson happy with him. Barry Geraghty hopes there's better to come.
TS - Can't see Big Zeb winning. Likes Sizing Europe for this.
AC - Wishful Thinking too short in betting as has been disappointing.
GE - Sizing Europe looks good.
RW - Would be biblical if all 4 champions won again. Major blow to bookies. Sizing Europe looks the best of the shorties.

Other Wednesday races
Coral Cup
GE - Carlito Brigante goes for Coral Cup although bit worried about top weight. Could get into place.


4 miler
MF - Harry The Viking looks like dour stayer. Allez Gard looks good for this.

Fred Winter
AC - Rides Kapga De Cerisy in this and think he's well handicapped. Venetia Williams would probably say this was her best chance of week.
NO - Hard to get handicapping right between Irish and English but happy this year that it's all balanced and French form complicated it further.
TS - Wants to take on favourite Vendor. Likes Dark And Dangerous and Royal Bonsai.

Bumper
RW - 6/1 the field. Market is quiet.
GE - Jessica Harrington's Jezki is best in this.
TS - Likes New Year's Eve.



Break over in 5 mins time....

We're off and running again.
AL: 900 people here tonight (JP: 3200 have read this blog post today).

Jewson
MF - Peddlers Cross has not looked quick this season and is taking his time to find his feet. Likes Solix.
TS - Much more viable horses in this race compared with Peddlers Cross. Likes Champion Court.
NO - Likes Peddlers Cross. Call The Police best of the Irish.
AC - Likes Champion Court more than Peddlers Cross. Has got his act together in Dipper. Alan Cawley is keen on his ride Champion Court him (lives with Aidan).
RW - All about Peddlers Cross. Could be a big drifter on day. For Non Stop is 13/2.

Ryanair
RW - Tough race and very deep. Have seen money for 9 horses.
NO - Noble Prince a bit disappointing this year. Strongest race of the 4 days. Wide open. Likes Somersby.
GE - Rubi Light has no chance! Wrong sort of race for Rubi Light last time.
TS - Likes Kalahari King as Ferdy Murphy is great in Spring and KK likes Cheltenham.
AC - Likes Great Endeavour. Thinks he's been trained for race. Captain Chris should jump better now.
MF - Great Endeavour looks good. Albertas Run would bring the house down.
RW - Little bit of money each way for Captain Chris today.

World Hurdle
RW - Big Bucks will be 4/9 on come Thursday.
TS - Moment at Cheltenham last time when Big Bucks faltered a bit but then he stormed clear. Great to watch. Majority of bookies she's interviewed gave Big Bucks as the one at the meeting they want to take on. Thousand Stars will come second.
NO - Would like to see Thousand Stars run well. Likes the drama of watching Big Bucks. Thinks race has more quality than usual.
GE - Doesn't run Carlito Brigante. Good field but thinks Big Bucks will win. Not sure that Oscar Whisky will get up hill.
MF - Flat spot of Big Bucks has happened at right time. If flat spot happens late then he could be beaten by Oscar Whisky. Barry Geraghty likely to play his cards late. Doesn't think Big Bucks will win.

Pertemps Hurdle
AC - Will ride Houblon Des Obeaux for Venetia Williams.
GE - Says his own has no chance. Thinks Our Father will win it.

Triumph Hurdle
RW - Very good race. Good quality. Those at the top of market have been heavily backed. Thinks Grumeti will go off favourite and could be a push for Baby Mix.
TS - Likes Balder Success and Countrywide Flame. Not ever liked Grumeti.
MF - Grumeti has good Flat form and is battle hardened. Thinks Choc will ride him. Likes Balder Success best.
GE - Shadow Catcher (trained by GE) has come on for every run and jumps well. Won't be too far away. Best horse his run in Triumph before. Stone better than Carlito Brigante who came 4th. Adds he thinks he'll win! Frightened of Darroun.
NO - Not a vintage year for juveniles. Baby Mix tops on ratings. Likes Darroun. Thinks there could be an upset.
AC - Baby Mix should beat Sadlers Risk. Likes him.

Albert Bartlett
GE - Hopes he'll win with Mount Benbulben who has a good each way chance.
AL: Says Paul Nicholls thinks Rocky Creek could be future Denman.
MF - Thinks Rocky Creek is a future chaser. Boston Bob says Ruby think's he's his best chance! (Has Mick got that right??).
TS - Has a strong one, her NAP is Fox Appeal. Brindisi Breeze may not like ground.
AC - Not much of a view on this but says Brindisi Breeze got easy lead at Haydock.
NO - Boston Bob well ahead on ratings on 151. Has looked special so far. A strong race now. Mentions Beneficient from Tony Martin and if trained by Mullins would be half odds.

County Hurdle
GE - Runs Plan A and Dirar but doesn't really fancy them.
AC - Unlikely that any of Venetia's will get in.

Martin Pipe
GE - Best chance of week in this with Toner D'oudairies.
MF - Likes Bourne.

Gold Cup
MF - Long Run has not been at his best this season. But trip will bring out best in him. Hasn't travelled with  usual vigour. Doesn't seem too keen on Long Run. (Could be significant as he usually likes Nicky's fancied horses - JP). Likes Synchronised.
AC - Given choice would ride Long Run.
NO - Irish weak this year. Top Irish horse is Quel Esprit. Thinks his jumping is a revelation. Could win a Ryanair. Lots of questions about top two. Synchronised looked good when winning. Out and out stayers do well in Gold Cup and has each way chance. Long Run will beat Kauto Star.
GE - Long Run will be better suited by trip than Kauto. Thinks he needs blinkers. However, thinks top two will be turned over.
TS - Away from top two likes Midnight Chase whose had a lighter season and has regular rider on board. Her each way selection. The Giant Bolster will make a frenetic pace.
RW - Bookies think tempo will be too much for Kauto. Wants to lay Kauto Star.

Questions (and answers!)
AC - Restless Harry's time was quicker than Brindisi Breeze. Big bull of horse but not sure he can carry top weight to success.
MF - Pearl Swan vibes from Ditcheat are strong.
TS - For Non Stop gave Al Ferof scare. Not sure he'll like a larger field.
GE - No chance for Forpadydeplasterer

NAPS
AC - Zarkandar
GE - Sizing Europe
NO - Boston Bob
MF - Boston Bob
TS - Fox Appeal
Report chesterboys March 11, 2012 11:44 PM GMT
Thanks for that BJG, some interesting thoughts there.
Report Denmanism March 12, 2012 2:10 AM GMT
ty,for the write up chaps.
Report BJG March 12, 2012 7:52 AM GMT
From

http://www.jpfestival.com/p/live-blog.html
Report Andymca March 12, 2012 8:13 AM GMT
Great post BJG cheers
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