Peasegiveme.......

Presumably you think that Knockara Beau would be in third if he were running?

take issue with what you like

I was talking about the Hennessey on nov 27th where he got an RPR of 170 and the RSA where he got 158 - both ran in the same calendar year when he was 6yo

he clearly improved massively from his first to 7th start and there is every reason to believe he would have continued to improve throughout 2011 had he been racing as many horses do

why should he not make the same progress as Long Run after only 7 runs? Long Run had raced 14 times before the RSA

I'm the kind of bloke who backed Arctic Cosmos for the Leger after the Gordon stakes (finished 3rd) because I could imagine how he would improve, and Poets Voice at 16/1 ante post for the QEII stakes, Rooster Booster in the October at 25/1 and Red Lancer in the Chester Vase at 14s precisely because I imagine the improbable actually being very likely. The improvement Burton Port needs to find is only imaginary at the moment but if Long Run can improve 23lbs from the 2010 RSA then there is no reason why Burton Port can't also although he might need a few runs to get to that level but still worth the risk at the prices I got

Have a 40/1 voucher for this one in my pot so would make me a very happy lad if he won as make nice profit, has him as one of my jackpot horses in this race

But my point is that this could only be an accurate reflection of their merits if you take into account the proximity of a consistently reliable horse like Knockara who pretty much always runs to a mark between 140-150. Judorick is making a clear and consistent case that Long Run improved by a load and that he believes that this may also be the case with Burton. Either that has to be the case or they must have run to high 160's in the RSA for your case to stand up. Had that been the case then this would have shown up with Knockara Beau and he has never shown anything like that form. Interestingly he has twice come up against Midnight Chase and been beaten around a dozen lengths. Midnight Chase was beaten about 20 lengths in last seasons gold cup. Which is another strand in this argument that Long Run improved massively from the RSA to the Gold Cup.

Of course that wasn't a smooth and uninterrupted progression. Don't forget that Long Run wasn't able to win a poor Mackeson off an effective mark of 153 the following season but that he was able to absolutely shiit all over a good field of novices in his first race in this country which was over 3 miles at Kempton as a 4 year old.

My case is that he came from France and like many which do he put up his best performance and then regressed until he "acclimatised". His Mackeson run was a prep to get him right for the King George which was his aim for last season where he posted a very high mark. I don't believe that he was quite as good in the Gold Cup but he was still good enough to beat reliable yardsticks.

My view is that the Gold Cup is the aim and that he is being primed to peak for that race. Newbury was a pipe opener having been let down after the King George. The other horses are being rated against a horse which was having a prep run and thus the form is suspect. What makes it even more suspect is that both What A Friend and Burton Port were also being primed for their main aim of the Gold Cup.

I'm questioning whether the conditions of the Gold Cup will suit Burton not whether he could have beaten Long Run at Newbury as I believe he could have.

aww yeah gotta live for finding out these puzzles totally agree

will be buzzing

Good post EEO, i see what youre getting at with Knockara Beau. LR is certainly a bitch to handicap and I cant really make the case for BP without knocking LR so will do it on a gold cup thread later in the week.

Its funny how different people see things differently. I find Long Rung relatively easy to assess. You ignore his first run of the season which is essentially a pipe opener and he then runs to somewhere between 175-180 depending on how you view an individual performance. Last year there was a much closer gap between the King George and the Gold Cup. This year I thiunk theyt ook the view that with sucha stuffy horse he would need a prep run which put him in a halfway house position of being more forward than on his first runs back but not quite cherry ripe.

I remain convinced that the Gold Cup is the aim and that if he jumps reasonably it will take at least a high 170's performance to beat him.

Incidentally on the issue of him staying I've just had another look at last years race and to me it confirms the impression I've had every time I've watched it. he gets tapped for toe coming down the hill having been well placed and then runs on whebn he meets the rising ground. The horse which I think was interesting is What A Friend who was ridden essentially to place and was given a very patient ride. he wasn't put into the race to win it but to pick up the crumbs if the others cut each others throats. Partly why I feel Long Run is a strong stayer is that What A Friend was about 3-4 legnths behind Long Run at the 3 mile makr and had about 7-8 lengths taken out of him despiute having that aforementioned considerate ride. Essentially I'm ignoring the runs of Denman and Kauto for that purpose.

I may be wrong but I do feel that Ruby will ride Kauto to seek to hit Long Run with a burst of speed probably just after the home turn and hope he lasts home if he can get an even paced race. I think he knows that the way to beat Long Run on a 3 mile park course is not the same as over a quarter mile further at Cheltenham.

burton port is going to creep into it from 3 out and outstay the lot up the hill

mark miwordz

Mot playing devils advocate but Burton backers could argue that the problem with that logic is that Burton Port was handled so tenderly that if he comes on for the run and improves for the step up in trip then why shouldn't he beat Long Run if that is the best that Long Run has to offer?

My argument is that it wasn't.

Can't you tell that Cheltenham is almost upon us? I go to bed and can't sleep and the first thing I do is get back into the form books and back on here.

And yet this horse way past his prime has beaten horse touted on here as live candidates by an easy 10 and 20 lengths in those races. Must have been some prime.

Eeternaloptimist, as its your thread and youre talking long run, I will join you

I say hes difficult to assess because theres still different possible answers to the questions he throws up - regression/improvement, fully tuned/not fully tuned, ideal conditions/not ideal conditions. Yes, its easy to fit together that he improved after a break and has then been campaigned at the later races but I find it just as easy to fit together that hes had ideal conditions for his good races.
Maybe im misjudging races to fit this but I see it as:

RSA - Not good enough over a testing 3m on good to soft
Paddy power - Not good enough over a testing 2.5 on good to soft
King George - ideal sprint off on a flat track
Gold cup - ideal sprint off on fast ground
Betfair - Not good enough over a testing 3m on good to soft
King George - more testing race than previous KG - specifically made that way by Ruby
Denman - ideal sprint off conditions

(I may be wrong about this but i always thought the fastest way around any track is to leave enough in the tank for a sprint near the end which is why I have judged his 2 track records as being raced that way)

I'm a massive massive fan of this horse. Got a very large bet on him at 33/1 E/W. In the run in you'd fancy Long Run as long as he has a good trip round, but I love the way this one's progressed and he looks a real animal and I don't doubt his stamina. My gut feeling is he's a shoe in to finish in front of Kauto and is Long Run's main and only danger. I've backed Long Run quite heavily at 5/2, was hoping for more after his Boxing Day defeat but wasn't to be. Burton Port is a monster, and you'll see that on Friday, it's just Long Run might be a bigger monster. He's a great bet to beat Kauto Star though, should be heavy odds on to do so, not odds against.

well he may be past his best,but hes been the best chaser at around that distance this season

Kauto star is past his best.
Did i say that he's not the best chaser

His prime was winning gold cups m8,and he is not at that level any more

jasey

No it wasn't. He was never at his best winning Gold Cups. That is a fallacy. He won Gold Cups because of his class. He was always at his best on a flat 3 miles which played to his strengths. The official ratings clearly show this. They also show that he is in far better form this year than last.

Once again I disagree. The lay outs of the new and old course are as diferent as night and day. Plenty of horses haven't been able to cope with the almost constant turns and undulations of the Tues/Wed course which suit beautifully balanced more compact horses but have left unaware punters scratching their heads in disbelief when they have run far better races on the less undulating and more galloping orientated Thurs/Fri course. He failed on the Tues course and he failed over an inadequate distance on his pipe opener on half of the Fri course. he made no mistake in the real deal.

You take it wrong. I'm on Long Run and I fear a stalking ride from Ruby.

That's why I'm hiding away in bed with the covers over my head trying not to think about you know who. Are you trying to give me nightmares?

I agree with that.
Just my opinion kauto won't win.
For me LR is the most likely to win,but after watching this season unfold,it would not suprise me if there was a shock winner