Festival Thoughts and Bets

I supply these notes for a disabled man I know who was paralysed a few years ago and can no longer speak, his carer reads the notes to him so he can enjoy the raciing, thought you might be interested, please no nasty comments, it's not finished yet:

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Won last time out (13/15)
Last prep run within 45 days of festival race (10/11)
Age 5 or 6 (8/10)
Have not achieved a Topspeed rating > 126 (strange one)
Achieved a Topspeed rating > 105
Achieved an RPR of 137+
Finished no worse that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (9/10)
Won at least 50% of their hurdle races (9/10)
Had 2-4 races this season (10/10)

Montbazon & Tetlami score 8/9 and Darlan 7/9

Darlan ran in the Zarkandar race and fell 2 from home when going well. He might have won and had he done so he would be a definite bet. Last time out fallers have a statistically terrible record (do worse than expectation) over many years and so although I really like the horse he is strictly dismissed... but don't be surprised if he runs well because he is nice


Champion Hurdle

Preferred age 6-8
24 of 28 winners won last time out (consider this very important)
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (a fairly recent run has been very important)
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (it's good to be a bit 'battle hardened' if you're going to win this race)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle
9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (there's little substitute for experience)
previous Cheltenham winning form is a positive
a win during the current season is highly desirable

Binocular matches 8
Hurricane Fly 7
Zarkandar 7

winning your prep race is almost a pre requisite for a Champion Hurdler so dimiss those that got beat. Binocular is a former Champion and matches the most trends o he has to be the bet and he won in impressive style on his prep run. Although we love Zarkandar we must bet with our heads and he has some horrible stats to overcome. For example, out of the last 87 five year olds to run in the race, only one has won and there have been plenty in the race shorter than 5/1. Next year for him unless Grandouet does it.

Binocular is an old favourite and the Champion jockey rides him. Will be a massive roar if he comes home first. The odds on favourite Hurricane Fly is a serious horse and will take some beating but Bino can do it. Go on my son



The Arkle Trophy

I won't bother with the trends here, even though the selection fits all of them comfortably and remains unbeaten in 3 starts all of which have poked the eye out in their brilliance, just sit back and enjoy what I hope will be a master class from the “Black Aeroplane” that is Sprinter Sacre.  This horse put up the best run I have ever seen by a novice chaser when winning in Grade 2 at Newbury and he is the most exciting prospect. Fingers crossed for a jaw dropping display of steeple chasing – one of the highlights of the meeting so do not miss


The World hurdle

Big Bucks is officially the best horse in training and is going for an unprecedented 4th World Hurdle in a row. Unbeaten in 15 consequetive races he will rightly be a short price. Not only is he the best horse in the race, ridden by a sublime jockey and trained by the best trainer in the land he is the only horse in the line up that meets every single trend and stat that I can find. Unopposable


The Queen Mother Champion Chase

One of my favourite races and one that has provided class, excitement, thrills and plenty of winners. Some trends

9 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run 2 to 4 times that season
10 of 10 winners had run in at least 8 chases
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (2 exceptions were 4th season chaser who had won an Arkle and previously finished in first 3 in a Queen Mother)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1½F+
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was 2nd in only previous grade 1)
7 of 10 winners were course winners (2 exceptions hadn’t run at the track before, other fell on only previous course start)
28 of 30 winners were at least placed last time out
29 of 30 winners were priced 10/1 or less
9 of 10 winners aged 9 or under

Reigning champion Sizing Europe is a class act, an Arkle winner, a Champion Chaser and a very high class performer. Frankly he has scared off most of his opposition and he fits 9 of the 10 trends. Next nearest is Big Zeb on 7/10 who was summarily dismissed in this race last year. Enjoy watching this superstar pulverising his foes


The Triumph Hurdle

Championship race for 4 year olds and you need to be a winning juvenile running in the best races, rarely getting beat and with some experience behind you, Group horses off the flat do well too

Here we have two lovely contenders in Grumeti, who was trained in Newmarket by Michael Bell, and Baby Mix winner of the best trial the Adonis hurdle at Kempton. These two fit the profile and will give us a run for our money


The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

3 mile race for staying novices and you need to be a proven stayer with class and speed. Most of the runners here are embryonic staying chasers of the future and most lack the speed to win here.

3 horses stand out on all form and trends: Boston Bob, Mount Benbulben and Brindisi Breeze.

Paul Nicholls apparently has a very high opinion of his Rocky Creek and it would be no surprise to see this one get gambled if the dogs are barking but he lacks several of the typical characteristics of a winner of this race.

Boston Bob has already dispatched Mount Benbulben with ease and Brindisi Breeze needs much softer going

and Boston Bob rates one of the best bets at the meeting IF he lines up here


Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle

A huge entry but the vast majority are nowhere near good enough and can be easily dismissed in several easy steps:

First or second in all completed hurdles starts gets rid of plenty
Dismiss 4 year olds and 8 year olds and older
Must have been 1st or 2nd in a Grade 2 or Grade 1 race (plenty have not)
Must have won at 2 and a half miles

Doing this leaves just 5 horses and two of those are not running in this race leaving us with
Simonsig (a beautiful grey from Nicky Henderson, travels sweetly will be cruising with half a mile to go)
Monksland Irish trained who has been lightly raced, powerful owner
Nelson's Bridge also Nicky Henderson but only raced twice, unlikely winner

Cheering on the grey with a saver on Monksland

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

We have backed Quantitativeeasing because of the Spinal Research race on 10th December which we have identified as red hot form. Strictly he has it all to do off  top weight but he is a really really nice horse, only 7 years old and he could be a Gold Cup or Grand National in a couple of years

The remainder are really difficult and there factors are very complicated.

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 or above
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in all 3 h’cap chases over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 5 wins over fences

10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or below, last 4 winners were rated 142 or 143.
7 of 10 winners had posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers that had run in previous festival: 1 placed in this and other 13th in previous Gold Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle, other had not run in a better than a class 3)
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1

Having applied all this I have come up with some speculative selections:- Baile Anrai, Blenheim Brook, Fruity O'Rooney and Billie Magern fit the profile best but the last named has a terrible track record in fields greater than 9 runners and is dismissed



The Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Blue Ribband event of the whole festival featuring living legend Kauto Star, winner of 2 Gold Cups and the first and only horse to regain the title after failing to defend it, 5 King Georges and proudly supported by more supporters than Man Utd it seems. If he wins the race the place will erupt, there won't be a dry eye and he will go down as truly one of the all time greats (he already is but this would carve his name forever in legend). Now 12 years old he has rolled back the years this season by winning two Grade 1 races. There have been some worries in the last couple of weeks because the horse had a bad fall in training and has taken a bit longer than normal to recover. His participation or not will decided on Monday. Fingers crossed, every one wants him to run!

Facing him is Long Run the defending Champion who has been runner up in both of Kauto Stars wins (both races at 3 miles) and is now expected to reverse that form and come out on top of Kauto with a stiffer track and an extra quarter mile to run. He is a strongly fancied favourite and is ridden by Sam Waley Cohen who is the son of the horses owner, an amateur jockey and a dentist! Don't let that worry you as he has already won a Gold Cup, a King George and been second in the Grand National.

The race is eagerly anticipated by National Hunt fans and the vast majority will be shocked if any horse other than the two stars wins the race. We however will play the trends and probabilities and frankly both horses face a very tough task
based on the history of the race. Kauto Star is far too old to be winning a race at the Festival, let alone the toughest race at the meeting. In the last 10 years 288 horses aged 11 or 12 have run at the Festival and just 5 have won despite several of those being red hot favourites. I would be shocked if Kauto Star manages to overcome this trend.

Long Run is the defending Champion and that in itself has been enough to put the mockers on all but one of the previous 40 winners of the race despite many defending Champions returning seemingly in good form and even starting at very short odds. 2/1 about a defending Champ in this race is a very bad bet.

Of course each horse DOES have a finite chance and they are perceived to be “well clear” on form from the rest of the runners. However, there is a horse that its all the required trends including age, has run in the right races, has previously beaten Long Run in a Championship race at Cheltenham, is certain to appreciate the stiff demands of the track and distance, is trained and ridden by top people and has never placed worse than second in any steeplechase! The only reason he is not so well known is because the poor lad had to have a year and half off the track with a stress fracture after running a mighty race to be second in the Hennessey. Had that not happened he might already be a Gold Cup winner. His name is Burton Port and I am convinced he will run a huge race. Interestingly for a staying chaser he is certainly smaller and slighter built than the average horse, he floats over the ground and jumps well bless him. Cheer him on because I am investing heavily.

Whatever happens this is the highlight of the Festival and possibly the year! Enjoy


The Ryan Air Chase

Grade 1 race over 2 mile 5 furlongs which favours horses with proven form at the track, the distance and in certain trials.
The Pipe yard have a great record, winners of the Paddy Power and December Gold Cups often run well and it suits horses aged 7 to 9.

Three horses stand out on the trends and they are Great Endeavour (Pipe trained and won a key trial by 7 lengths over the course and distance, more to come, races prominently, also a previous Cheltenham Festival winner which is imporatant), Medermit (fits all trends, placed 2nd in Grade 1 at the Festival, 2nd in a key trial and a Grade 1 on last start)
Poquelin (fits all the trends, placed in the race twice, needs fast going ideally)

I expect to see the almost white Great Endeavour near the front and jumping well early. He has made mistakes in a couple of races this year (1 costly, 1 not at all) and he needs to cut that out if he is to win. I would think he needs to either lead jumping the last or be bearing down fast and jump into the lead there. Medermit will be held up in mid division normally, tracking the leaders and also needs to avoid the energy sapping mistakes that can creep in round this track. The faster they go in the first mile the better for him because he will be staying on strongly at the end and needs the front runners to run out of puff with a quarter mile to go. Poquelin is very similar and needs a strongly run race on good ground which incidentally is what Great Endeavour will provide.

There are plenty of very serious rivals in here and it is a very competitive race. Riverside Theatre and Sommersby are both recent Grade 1 winners and either could win. Both have done their best performances at Ascot which is a different type of test and I am happy to take them on.

The two biggest dangers to the Brits are Noble Prince and Rubi Light – both Grade 1 winners trained in Ireland. Noble Prince won at the Festival in 2011 and Rubi Light was third in this race last year.

Going to be  really fierce competition – not to be missed, these guys will be flying round here!!


The RSA Chase

Championship race for Novice staying chasers over 3 miles with very strong trends established over many years

10 of 10 (33 from 36) winners finished in the first 2 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138 or higher last time
10 of 10 winners had their last run between 24 and 55 days ago
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+
7yos have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 10 times over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had not run under flat rules
Positive if won over fences at Cheltenham

There are 4 horses that match these trends and they are Sir des Champs, Bobs Worth, Join Together and First Lieutenant. Interestingly, there is a very short priced favourite, Grands Crus, who not only fails to match the above trends perfectly but has a major negative to overcome. He won the worst trial for this race. Of 17 winners of that trial, the Feltham at Kempton, to run in this race none have managed to win despite many of them being strongly fancied in the betting. Not even the future King George and Gold Cup winner Long Run managed to do the Feltham/RSA double. Grands Crus will need to be a superstar to win here – 7/4? No thanks

I like Join Together and Bobs Worth at the prices







National Hunt Chase

4 miles, novice chasers and Amateur Jockeys? Whoa doesn't seem like a great race but this is the longest standing race at the meeting and you need a very specific type of horse for this. They have to have had a few runs over fences (at least 3), they need to have been winning or coming second at worst, they need to have won at 3 miles and they need to have reached a certain level of performance in terms of handicap ratings.

Despite the large field there is only one horse that I can consider here: Harry the Viking trained by Paul Nicholls has all the attributes you want as is to be ridden by crack amateur rider William Biddick. Looks a cracking bet