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He's still 12s at Billies thats big I would think 9s or 8s represent his chances. Paddy Power Gold Cup winners in the past have really good records going on to the Festival. Imperial Commander won the race off 10-7 and went on to win the Gold Cup. Our Vic won it and went on to win the Ryanair. His run in the Hennessey was excellent considering the trip was far to long for him.
If you look at the conditions of the race it might not really suit Riverside Theatre. Ground good to firm as it stands optimum for him would be good to soft, really fast pace with AR and GE, and the undulating track. I think he might get caught out maybe hit one hard. He will be struggling from there. We know from the paddy power everything will be in GE favour. A good few horses were being ridden along on the first circuit by the pace set by GE. He can deal with the hustle and bustle. But most importantly jumps well under pressure this is were RT might wilt a bit. |
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IC won the Ryanair same season he won the PP STS, then the CGC the year after. He was just out of novice stage though so was more progressive than GE. Don't really see how GE can beat all of these to be honest, though their is likely to be a much faster pace in th race this year than for the last couple and that will help him as he has always run well in fast run big field handicaps. Problem that leaves me with is that so has Poquelin and he is clearly the better horse of the 2 in a fast run race yet is a bigger price. So it has to be Poquelin for me.
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Harry, in what way am I trying to force my opinion on anyone? I wrote one line where I said he'll probably run into one too good. You're the one writing big essays so I'd say you're the one forcing your opinion on me.
I'm of the same view as Budd. I think he'll run a good race but this looks like the strongest Ryanair there has been and he might struggle. Yes, he won well of 147 but how would Riverside Theatre or Albertas Run performed off a mark that low? I think they would have demolished the opposition. |
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I think its really good that both harry and judo have such a strong feeling about the horse, can put in writing their rationale and at 14s do have a decent bet in an open race. All of the apparent grade 1 horse do have questions to answer so if he does win it wouldn't be the greatest shock.
For me I have backed RT as I think he is the best horse in the race and the 7s I got was big enough to counter the course and to a lesser extent 'bounce' concerns. I have also done AR e/w as he has the proven festival form in this grade, will love the ground and the price counters the injury concern. I think this race is extremely open and without any firm opinions not one I am going to play too heavily in |
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people have aid repeatedly that Great Endeavour was over the top in the Spinal Research but I don't buy that at all. He just took off too soon and breasted a fence and then later got slammed in the ribs. No one can say what would have happened if neither event had occurred during the race but you can 100% sure he would have been somewhere near Quantitativeeasing who won the race. As I said, I am convinced he would have won but that is open to personal opinion.
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