Just something ive just come up with, maybe flawed before its even begun but could be a nice money spinner should anyones antepost and day of race bets come unstuck.
Start with a level £100 in betfair
I have looked up last years results, admittedly only the grade one races. I am not going to go through anymore but i found that if you say put up a lay at a level stake to lose £20 laying every jolly in the grade ones you would have come way out on top on just the grade ones alone and doing these bets during the morning markets
Supreme 4th
Arkle 4th
Champ chs 4th
Ryanair 4th
Triumph 4th - i think a trend is starting to appear here
how many more was the jolly unplaced?
Cant remember Garde Champs final finishing position in the X-Country but he was fav for this race in the morning, pretty short too but the support for Maljimar was massive and he finally went off 9/2f and won!
In the Gold Cup i am pretty sure KS was morning fav, LR was backed into this position and durly obliged!
I am just wondering if this, at the fez, could be a way forward to making nice profit, so even if you come unstuck with your antepost and day of race bets, there maybe a little compensation by the end of the week perhaps.
What are the stats on fav's placing in grade ones and also in all races?
Yes like i said, full of flaws in above never mind, i sometimes find it very difficult to put what im thinking down on here without sounding childish with many mistakes and flaws. That was a big one, yes the did place. Just something i was thinking about. Also, you didn't say that to me just now on messenger gnashers lol.
Yes like i said, full of flaws in above never mind, i sometimes find it very difficult to put what im thinking down on here without sounding childish with many mistakes and flaws. That was a big one, yes the did place. Just something i was thinking a
why dont u oppose horse where the stats are v much against them.
take arkle favs having a poor record.
nicky hendersons 0-22 in the neptune and only 2 horse placed better than 10th so simonsig looks a place lay on that.
horses unproven over course and trips?
why dont u oppose horse where the stats are v much against them.take arkle favs having a poor record.nicky hendersons 0-22 in the neptune and only 2 horse placed better than 10th so simonsig looks a place lay on that.horses unproven over course and t
Wow, never expected such an informative answer! Thanx, by looks of things you have only inc grade 1s. Is it even more impressive when you look at all races at the fez? Dare i ask? hehe
Wow, never expected such an informative answer! Thanx, by looks of things you have only inc grade 1s. Is it even more impressive when you look at all races at the fez? Dare i ask? hehe
Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds Less than 1-2 1 1 100.0% 141.0% 1-2 to 10-11 12 4 33.3% 63.5% Evens to 11-8 11 5 45.5% 106.2% 6-4 to 15-8 17 6 35.3% 97.6% 2-1 to 11-4 35 5 14.3% 53.2% 3-1 to 9-2 73 12 16.4% 87.3% 5-1 to 15-2 32 3 9.4% 73.4% 8-1 to 10-1 1 0 0.0% 0.0%
^^^^^^^^Results broken down by Starting PriceBets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair OddsLess than 1-2 1 1 100.0% 141.0%1-2 to 10-11 12 4 33.3% 63.5%Evens to 11-8 11 5 45.5% 106.2%6-4 to
Zealot - top stuff - interested in these posts especially the one timed at 20.03 .... and returning to the OP's question, what would laying for the place only result in?
Zealot - top stuff - interested in these posts especially the one timed at 20.03 .... and returning to the OP's question, what would laying for the place only result in?
Yes absolutely top stuff, couldn't ask for anymore. Notice the only year a loss at betfair sp is laying the win was last year since 2004!
I think onto a winning formula here. Couple bumper years in there, where the loss is fairly significant.
Start with £100 every year i thinks, lay to lose £20 a race laying the race fav at bfsp should return a nice profit. Should at least double the 100 on an average year me thinks by the end of the week. And that on top of your antepost and day of race bets will either be a nice bonus for you, or some kind of compensation!
Yes absolutely top stuff, couldn't ask for anymore. Notice the only year a loss at betfair sp is laying the win was last year since 2004!I think onto a winning formula here. Couple bumper years in there, where the loss is fairly significant. Start wi
What you going to do in races where it is not obvious what the fav will be?
The touble with these "lay the fav" type stats and systems is that you only know for sure what is the fav in some races when it goes off. You lay in the morning, 1hour before, 10 mins before, your horse drifts and wins, then it isn't on that year's stats as wasn't fav -yet you still laid it.......
What you going to do in races where it is not obvious what the fav will be?The touble with these "lay the fav" type stats and systems is that you only know for sure what is the fav in some races when it goes off. You lay in the morning, 1hour before
Sorry i didn't make this clear above. As above stats given by zealot above as sp fav's then lays will need to be placed just before the off obviously. I get what you saying, but there are ways around this i.e comparing oddschecker and having a couple of different bookmakers windows open with automatic refresh of their prices would give a good indicator as to which is the fav for that race.
If joint fav's, i am not sure, use judgement i guess laying 2 in the race both to lose £20 means the liability is smaller and potential win is bigger i guess so perhaps this may be enough to weigh up the extra risk
Sorry i didn't make this clear above. As above stats given by zealot above as sp fav's then lays will need to be placed just before the off obviously. I get what you saying, but there are ways around this i.e comparing oddschecker and having a couple
14 favs unplaced from 29 runners (co-favs or jt-favs in 3 races)
Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on all co & jt favs) would have yielded a loss of €579.49 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)
Best win would have been Wonderkid in the Cross Country who finished 6th at 1.72 (profit of €131.94)
2009
11 favs unplaced from 26 runners (no joint favs)
Laying to lose €100 on each runner would have yielded a loss of €401.26 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)
Best win would have been Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle who finished 4th at 1.27 (profit of €351.85)
2010
17 favs unplaced from 27 runners (joint favs in Foxhunters)
Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on both runners in Foxhunters) would have yielded a profit of €1,261.22 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)
Best wins would have been Kauto Star in the Gold Cup who fell at 1.20 (profit of €475.00) and Master Minded who finished 4th in the Champion Chase at 1.257 (profit of €351.85)
2011
16 favs unplaced from 27 runners (joint favs in Foxhunters)
Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on both runners in Foxhunters) would have yielded a profit of €343.89 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)
Best win would have been Poquelin in the Ryanair who finished 4th at 1.60 (profit of €158.33
Luckiest win would have been Baby Run who unseated 2 out in the Foxhunters at 2.07 (profit of €88.79 instead of loss of €100)
200814 favs unplaced from 29 runners (co-favs or jt-favs in 3 races)Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on all co & jt favs) would have yielded a loss of €579.49 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)Best win would hav
That is just amazing! Many, many thanks - we forget the "best" horses don't win (insert any reason you want here).... it appears they can't even place profitably either.
Need Nads the size of planets mind you to lay em and this emphasises the point that favourites do go off too short here.
Good thread.
That is just amazing! Many, many thanks - we forget the "best" horses don't win (insert any reason you want here).... it appears they can't even place profitably either.Need Nads the size of planets mind you to lay em and this emphasises the point th
In 2008-2009 you would have lost close to 10pts laying the favourite to place
There's no way you could consider this a profitable system with 2 losing years from the last 4
In 2008-2009 you would have lost close to 10pts laying the favourite to placeThere's no way you could consider this a profitable system with 2 losing years from the last 4