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SEATHESTARS....NO1
06 Mar 12 17:02
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Date Joined: 04 Oct 09
| Topic/replies: 4,537 | Blogger: SEATHESTARS....NO1's blog
Just something ive just come up with, maybe flawed before its even begun but could be a nice money spinner should anyones antepost and day of race bets come unstuck.

Start with a level £100 in betfair

I have looked up last years results, admittedly only the grade one races. I am not going to go through anymore but i found that if you say put up a lay at a level stake to lose £20 laying every jolly in the grade ones you would have come way out on top on just the grade ones alone and doing these bets during the morning markets

Supreme 4th

Arkle 4th

Champ chs 4th

Ryanair 4th

Triumph 4th - i think a trend is starting to appear here

how many more was the jolly unplaced?

Cant remember Garde Champs final finishing position in the X-Country but he was fav for this race in the morning, pretty short too but the support for Maljimar was massive and he finally went off 9/2f and won!

In the Gold Cup i am pretty sure KS was morning fav, LR was backed into this position and durly obliged!

I am just wondering if this, at the fez, could be a way forward to making nice profit, so even if you come unstuck with your antepost and day of race bets, there maybe a little compensation by the end of the week perhaps.

What are the stats on fav's placing in grade ones and also in all races?
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Report andy85 March 6, 2012 5:31 PM GMT
Maljimar didn't win cross country

Good luck with your bet though
Report gnashersblackpool March 6, 2012 5:38 PM GMT
sizing did,thou garde and majimar both placed.

itend tothinkmany of the solid favs place[ienon novice events]
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 6, 2012 5:42 PM GMT
BlushWhoops

Yes like i said, full of flaws in above never mind, i sometimes find it very difficult to put what im thinking down on here without sounding childish with many mistakes and flaws. That was a big one, yes the did place. Just something i was thinking about. Also, you didn't say that to me just now on messenger gnashers lol.
Report ilikewavingatbuses March 6, 2012 6:44 PM GMT
why dont u oppose horse where the stats are v much against them.

take arkle favs having a poor record.

nicky hendersons 0-22 in the neptune and only 2 horse placed better than 10th so simonsig looks a place lay on that.

horses unproven over course and trips?
Report ZEALOT March 6, 2012 8:03 PM GMT
Date    Race    Horse    SP    Position    £100 win    £50 each way
16 Mar 2004    2:40 Cheltenham    THISTHATANDTOTHER    5-2    F/16    -100    -100
16 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    ROOSTER BOOSTER    11-8    2/14    -200    -136
17 Mar 2004    2:00 Cheltenham    INGLIS DREVER    7-4    2/15    -300    -168
17 Mar 2004    2:35 Cheltenham    OUR VIC    11-8    3/10    -400    -205
17 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    MOSCOW FLYER    5-6    F/8    -500    -305
18 Mar 2004    2:35 Cheltenham    BARACOUDA    8-11    2/10    -600    -347
18 Mar 2004    3:15 Cheltenham    BEST MATE    8-11    1/10    -527    -304
18 Mar 2004    5:10 Cheltenham    LA LANDIERE    5-2    6/7    -627    -404
15 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    WAR OF ATTRITION    11-4    7/19    -727    -504
16 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    MOSCOW FLYER    6-4    1/8    -577    -414
17 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    OUR VIC    7-4    P/12    -677    -514
17 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    BARACOUDA    6-5    2/12    -777    -552
18 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    BREWSTER    9-4    3/18    -877    -579
14 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    SWEET WAKE    5-2    5/20    -977    -679
14 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    BRAVE INCA    7-4    1/18    -802    -574
15 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    DENMAN    11-10    2/17    -902    -613
15 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    2-1    F/12    -1002    -713
15 Mar 2006    5:20 Cheltenham    EQUUS MAXIMUS    5-2    12/23    -1102    -813
17 Mar 2006    2:35 Cheltenham    BLACK JACK KETCHUM    1-1    1/19    -1002    -753
13 Mar 2007    2:00 Cheltenham    AMARETTO ROSE    2-1    3/22    -1102    -783
13 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    DETROIT CITY    6-4    6/10    -1202    -883
14 Mar 2007    2:00 Cheltenham    ARAN CONCERTO    5-2    5/15    -1302    -983
14 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    DENMAN    6-5    1/17    -1182    -911
14 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    WELL CHIEF    1-1    F/10    -1282    -1011
15 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    MONET'S GARDEN    7-4    4/9    -1382    -1111
15 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    BLACK JACK KETCHUM    2-1    F/14    -1482    -1211
16 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    WICHITA LINEMAN    11-8    1/20    -1344    -1129
16 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    5-4    1/18    -1219    -1054
11 Mar 2008    2:35 Cheltenham    NOLAND    7-4    3/14    -1319    -1086
11 Mar 2008    3:15 Cheltenham    SIZING EUROPE    2-1    14/15    -1419    -1186
13 Mar 2008    2:20 Cheltenham    VOY POR USTEDES    5-2    2/8    -1519    -1211
13 Mar 2008    3:30 Cheltenham    INGLIS DREVER    11-8    1/17    -1382    -1129
14 Mar 2008    2:15 Cheltenham    FRANCHOEK    1-1    2/14    -1482    -1169
14 Mar 2008    3:30 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    10-11    2/12    -1582    -1210
10 Mar 2009    1:30 Cheltenham    COUSIN VINNY    9-4    5/20    -1682    -1310
10 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    BINOCULAR    6-4    3/23    -1782    -1345
10 Mar 2009    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    2-1    1/21    -1582    -1225
11 Mar 2009    2:05 Cheltenham    MIKAEL D'HAGUENET    5-2    1/14    -1332    -1075
11 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    COOLDINE    9-4    1/15    -1107    -940
11 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    4-11    1/12    -1070    -918
11 Mar 2009    5:15 Cheltenham    RITE OF PASSAGE    5-2    3/24    -1170    -943
12 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    VOY POR USTEDES    4-5    2/10    -1270    -985
12 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    KASBAH BLISS    10-11    4/14    -1370    -1085
13 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    7-4    1/16    -1195    -980
16 Mar 2010    1:30 Cheltenham    DUNGUIB    4-5    3/18    -1295    -1022
16 Mar 2010    2:05 Cheltenham    CAPTAIN CEE BEE    5-2    8/12    -1395    -1122
16 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    GO NATIVE    11-4    10/12    -1495    -1222
16 Mar 2010    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    6-4    1/17    -1345    -1132
17 Mar 2010    2:40 Cheltenham    PUNCHESTOWNS    2-1    5/9    -1445    -1232
17 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    4-5    4/9    -1545    -1332
18 Mar 2010    2:40 Cheltenham    POQUELIN    11-4    2/13    -1645    -1354
18 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    BIG BUCK'S    5-6    1/14    -1562    -1304
19 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    8-11    F/11    -1662    -1404
15 Mar 2011    1:30 Cheltenham    CUE CARD    7-4    4/15    -1762    -1504
15 Mar 2011    2:05 Cheltenham    MEDERMIT    11-4    4/10    -1862    -1604
15 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    HURRICANE FLY    11-4    1/11    -1587    -1439
15 Mar 2011    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    5-6    1/14    -1504    -1389
16 Mar 2011    2:05 Cheltenham    SO YOUNG    2-1    3/12    -1604    -1419
16 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    TIME FOR RUPERT    7-4    5/12    -1704    -1519
16 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    2-1    8/11    -1804    -1619
17 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    POQUELIN    2-1    4/11    -1904    -1719
17 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    BIG BUCK'S    10-11    1/13    -1813    -1665
18 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    BOBS WORTH    15-8    1/18    -1625    -1552


Totals

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at SP    Placed (inc wins)    Place Strike Rate    Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections    63    19    30.2%    74.2%    37    58.7%    75.4%
Report ZEALOT March 6, 2012 8:05 PM GMT
Totals

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
All Selections    63    19    30.2%    78.6%


Results broken down by Year

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
2004    8    1    12.5%    22.3%
2005    5    1    20.0%    51.9%
2006    6    2    33.3%    81.6%
2007    9    3    33.3%    79.0%
2008    6    1    16.7%    42.0%
2009    10    5    50.0%    151.2%
2010    9    2    22.2%    51.4%
2011    10    4    40.0%    108.5%


Results broken down by Month

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
March    63    19    30.2%    78.6%
Report ZEALOT March 6, 2012 8:06 PM GMT
Date    Race    Horse    SP    Position    Estimated Betfair Odds    £100 win
16 Mar 2004    2:40 Cheltenham    THISTHATANDTOTHER    5-2    F/16    3.6    -100
16 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    ROOSTER BOOSTER    11-8    2/14    2.48    -200
17 Mar 2004    2:00 Cheltenham    INGLIS DREVER    7-4    2/15    2.88    -300
17 Mar 2004    2:35 Cheltenham    OUR VIC    11-8    3/10    2.48    -400
17 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    MOSCOW FLYER    5-6    F/8    1.90    -500
18 Mar 2004    2:35 Cheltenham    BARACOUDA    8-11    2/10    1.78    -600
18 Mar 2004    3:15 Cheltenham    BEST MATE    8-11    1/10    1.78    -521
18 Mar 2004    5:10 Cheltenham    LA LANDIERE    5-2    6/7    3.6    -621
15 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    WAR OF ATTRITION    11-4    7/19    4.0    -721
16 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    MOSCOW FLYER    6-4    1/8    2.60    -562
17 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    OUR VIC    7-4    P/12    2.86    -662
17 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    BARACOUDA    6-5    2/12    2.28    -762
18 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    BREWSTER    9-4    3/18    3.4    -862
14 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    SWEET WAKE    5-2    5/20    3.8    -962
14 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    BRAVE INCA    7-4    1/18    2.84    -778
15 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    DENMAN    11-10    2/17    2.16    -878
15 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    2-1    F/12    3.2    -978
15 Mar 2006    5:20 Cheltenham    EQUUS MAXIMUS    5-2    12/23    3.8    -1078
17 Mar 2006    2:35 Cheltenham    BLACK JACK KETCHUM    1-1    1/19    2.05    -972
13 Mar 2007    2:00 Cheltenham    AMARETTO ROSE    2-1    3/22    3.2    -1072
13 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    DETROIT CITY    6-4    6/10    2.61    -1172
14 Mar 2007    2:00 Cheltenham    ARAN CONCERTO    5-2    5/15    3.8    -1272
14 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    DENMAN    6-5    1/17    2.29    -1143
14 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    WELL CHIEF    1-1    F/10    2.08    -1243
15 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    MONET'S GARDEN    7-4    4/9    2.88    -1343
15 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    BLACK JACK KETCHUM    2-1    F/14    3.2    -1443
16 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    WICHITA LINEMAN    11-8    1/20    2.48    -1295
16 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    5-4    1/18    2.34    -1161
11 Mar 2008    2:35 Cheltenham    NOLAND    7-4    3/14    3.1    -1261
11 Mar 2008    3:15 Cheltenham    SIZING EUROPE    2-1    14/15    3.3    -1361
13 Mar 2008    2:20 Cheltenham    VOY POR USTEDES    5-2    2/8    3.6    -1461
13 Mar 2008    3:30 Cheltenham    INGLIS DREVER    11-8    1/17    2.52    -1309
14 Mar 2008    2:15 Cheltenham    FRANCHOEK    1-1    2/14    2.14    -1409
14 Mar 2008    3:30 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    10-11    2/12    2.01    -1509
10 Mar 2009    1:30 Cheltenham    COUSIN VINNY    9-4    5/20    3.6    -1609
10 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    BINOCULAR    6-4    3/23    2.80    -1709
10 Mar 2009    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    2-1    1/21    3.2    -1484
11 Mar 2009    2:05 Cheltenham    MIKAEL D'HAGUENET    5-2    1/14    3.7    -1215
11 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    COOLDINE    9-4    1/15    3.9    -926
11 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    4-11    1/12    1.41    -885
11 Mar 2009    5:15 Cheltenham    RITE OF PASSAGE    5-2    3/24    3.7    -985
12 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    VOY POR USTEDES    4-5    2/10    1.85    -1085
12 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    KASBAH BLISS    10-11    4/14    2.03    -1185
13 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    7-4    1/16    2.88    -997
16 Mar 2010    1:30 Cheltenham    DUNGUIB    4-5    3/18    1.81    -1097
16 Mar 2010    2:05 Cheltenham    CAPTAIN CEE BEE    5-2    8/12    3.7    -1197
16 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    GO NATIVE    11-4    10/12    4.5    -1297
16 Mar 2010    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    6-4    1/17    2.66    -1131
17 Mar 2010    2:40 Cheltenham    PUNCHESTOWNS    2-1    5/9    3.3    -1231
17 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    4-5    4/9    1.81    -1331
18 Mar 2010    2:40 Cheltenham    POQUELIN    11-4    2/13    3.9    -1431
18 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    BIG BUCK'S    5-6    1/14    1.96    -1335
19 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    8-11    F/11    1.93    -1435
15 Mar 2011    1:30 Cheltenham    CUE CARD    7-4    4/15    2.88    -1535
15 Mar 2011    2:05 Cheltenham    MEDERMIT    11-4    4/10    4.0    -1635
15 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    HURRICANE FLY    11-4    1/11    4.0    -1339
15 Mar 2011    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    5-6    1/14    1.90    -1250
16 Mar 2011    2:05 Cheltenham    SO YOUNG    2-1    3/12    3.2    -1350
16 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    TIME FOR RUPERT    7-4    5/12    2.88    -1450
16 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    2-1    8/11    3.2    -1550
17 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    POQUELIN    2-1    4/11    3.2    -1650
17 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    BIG BUCK'S    10-11    1/13    1.98    -1552
18 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    BOBS WORTH    15-8    1/18    3.0    -1350


Totals

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
All Selections    63    19    30.2%    78.6%


Results broken down by Year

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
2004    8    1    12.5%    22.3%
2005    5    1    20.0%    51.9%
2006    6    2    33.3%    81.6%
2007    9    3    33.3%    79.0%
2008    6    1    16.7%    42.0%
2009    10    5    50.0%    151.2%
2010    9    2    22.2%    51.4%
2011    10    4    40.0%    108.5%


Results broken down by Month

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
March    63    19    30.2%    78.6%
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 7, 2012 12:06 AM GMT
Wow, never expected such an informative answer! Thanx, by looks of things you have only inc grade 1s. Is it even more impressive when you look at all races at the fez? Dare i ask? hehe
Report ZEALOT March 7, 2012 12:57 AM GMT
CLEAR FAVOURITE - ALL FESTIVAL RACES SINCE 2004 .

Selections

Date    Race    Horse    SP    Position    Estimated Betfair Odds    £100 win
16 Mar 2004    2:00 Cheltenham    BRAVE INCA    7-2    1/19    4.9    388
16 Mar 2004    2:40 Cheltenham    THISTHATANDTOTHER    5-2    F/16    3.6    288
16 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    ROOSTER BOOSTER    11-8    2/14    2.48    188
16 Mar 2004    4:00 Cheltenham    HAUT CERCY    10-3    8/11    4.8    88
16 Mar 2004    4:40 Cheltenham    IBIS ROCHELAIS    7-1    3/22    9.2    -11
16 Mar 2004    5:20 Cheltenham    KEEPATEM    4-1    7/24    5.5    -111
17 Mar 2004    2:00 Cheltenham    INGLIS DREVER    7-4    2/15    2.88    -211
17 Mar 2004    2:35 Cheltenham    OUR VIC    11-8    3/10    2.48    -311
17 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    MOSCOW FLYER    5-6    F/8    1.90    -411
17 Mar 2004    4:00 Cheltenham    RHINESTONE COWBOY    5-1    3/27    6.7    -511
17 Mar 2004    5:10 Cheltenham    IZNOGOUD    9-2    2/16    6.1    -611
17 Mar 2004    5:45 Cheltenham    MARTINSTOWN    7-2    14/24    4.9    -711
18 Mar 2004    2:00 Cheltenham    TROUBLE AT BAY    5-1    10/23    6.6    -811
18 Mar 2004    2:35 Cheltenham    BARACOUDA    8-11    2/10    1.78    -911
18 Mar 2004    3:15 Cheltenham    BEST MATE    8-11    1/10    1.78    -832
18 Mar 2004    4:00 Cheltenham    LORD ATTERBURY    3-1    P/24    4.3    -932
18 Mar 2004    4:35 Cheltenham    ST PIRRAN    4-1    1/21    5.5    -478
18 Mar 2004    5:10 Cheltenham    LA LANDIERE    5-2    6/7    3.6    -578
15 Mar 2005    2:00 Cheltenham    MARCEL    13-2    13/20    8.3    -678
15 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    WAR OF ATTRITION    11-4    7/19    4.0    -778
15 Mar 2005    4:00 Cheltenham    IRIS BLEU    11-2    9/20    7.3    -878
15 Mar 2005    4:40 Cheltenham    COMANCHE WAR PAINT    10-3    F/16    4.8    -978
15 Mar 2005    5:20 Cheltenham    EASE THE WAY    4-1    14/24    5.6    -1078
16 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    COMPLY OR DIE    3-1    2/9    4.4    -1178
16 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    MOSCOW FLYER    6-4    1/8    2.60    -1018
16 Mar 2005    4:00 Cheltenham    DISTANT PROSPECT    10-3    9/29    4.8    -1118
16 Mar 2005    4:40 Cheltenham    OH BE THE HOKEY    9-2    8/24    6.2    -1218
16 Mar 2005    5:20 Cheltenham    MISSED THAT    7-2    1/24    4.9    -825
17 Mar 2005    2:00 Cheltenham    CAPTAIN CORELLI    8-1    P/19    10.3    -925
17 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    OUR VIC    7-4    P/12    2.86    -1025
17 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    BARACOUDA    6-5    2/12    2.28    -1125
17 Mar 2005    4:00 Cheltenham    BROOKLYN BREEZE    9-2    4/22    6.2    -1225
17 Mar 2005    4:40 Cheltenham    POINT BARROW    10-3    5/20    4.7    -1325
17 Mar 2005    5:20 Cheltenham    RAVENSWOOD    7-2    15/22    5.0    -1425
18 Mar 2005    2:00 Cheltenham    AKILAK    7-2    3/23    4.9    -1525
18 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    BREWSTER    9-4    3/18    3.4    -1625
18 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    KICKING KING    4-1    1/15    5.5    -1176
18 Mar 2005    4:00 Cheltenham    SLEEPING NIGHT    7-2    1/24    4.9    -782
18 Mar 2005    4:40 Cheltenham    L'ANGE AU CIEL    9-2    14/24    6.2    -882
18 Mar 2005    5:20 Cheltenham    BEECHCOURT    9-2    11/30    6.2    -982
14 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    SWEET WAKE    5-2    5/20    3.8    -1082
14 Mar 2006    2:35 Cheltenham    RACING DEMON    9-2    7/14    6.1    -1182
14 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    BRAVE INCA    7-4    1/18    2.84    -998
14 Mar 2006    4:00 Cheltenham    MOULIN RICHE    10-3    P/21    4.8    -1098
14 Mar 2006    5:20 Cheltenham    ROYALS DARLING    9-2    15/24    6.2    -1198
15 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    DENMAN    11-10    2/17    2.16    -1298
15 Mar 2006    2:35 Cheltenham    COMMERCIAL FLYER    9-2    P/15    6.1    -1398
15 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    2-1    F/12    3.2    -1498
15 Mar 2006    4:00 Cheltenham    NO WHERE TO HYDE    5-1    F/30    6.7    -1598
15 Mar 2006    5:20 Cheltenham    EQUUS MAXIMUS    5-2    12/23    3.8    -1698
16 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    REVEILLEZ    9-2    1/18    6.2    -1181
16 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    MIGHTY MAN    4-1    3/20    5.5    -1281
16 Mar 2006    4:00 Cheltenham    ROSS RIVER    5-1    F/24    6.7    -1381
16 Mar 2006    4:40 Cheltenham    FAR FROM TROUBLE    7-2    3/22    5.0    -1481
16 Mar 2006    5:20 Cheltenham    OULART    4-1    8/24    5.6    -1581
17 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    DETROIT CITY    7-2    1/17    5.0    -1183
17 Mar 2006    2:35 Cheltenham    BLACK JACK KETCHUM    1-1    1/19    2.05    -1078
17 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    BEEF OR SALMON    4-1    11/22    5.5    -1178
17 Mar 2006    4:00 Cheltenham    HARBOUR PILOT    11-4    P/24    4.1    -1278
17 Mar 2006    4:40 Cheltenham    ANDREAS    4-1    F/23    5.6    -1378
13 Mar 2007    2:00 Cheltenham    AMARETTO ROSE    2-1    3/22    3.2    -1478
13 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    FAIR ALONG    10-3    2/13    4.9    -1578
13 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    DETROIT CITY    6-4    6/10    2.61    -1678
13 Mar 2007    4:40 Cheltenham    HEADS ONTHE GROUND    5-2    1/16    3.8    -1394
14 Mar 2007    2:00 Cheltenham    ARAN CONCERTO    5-2    5/15    3.8    -1494
14 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    DENMAN    6-5    1/17    2.29    -1365
14 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    WELL CHIEF    1-1    F/10    2.08    -1465
14 Mar 2007    4:00 Cheltenham    COPSALE LAD    6-1    16/28    8.0    -1565
14 Mar 2007    4:40 Cheltenham    CLOUDY LANE    15-2    1/24    9.8    -682
14 Mar 2007    5:20 Cheltenham    MAD FISH    4-1    8/24    5.7    -782
15 Mar 2007    2:00 Cheltenham    NEW LITTLE BRIC    7-2    7/19    5.1    -882
15 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    MONET'S GARDEN    7-4    4/9    2.88    -982
15 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    BLACK JACK KETCHUM    2-1    F/14    3.2    -1082
15 Mar 2007    4:00 Cheltenham    OPERA MUNDI    7-2    19/23    5.1    -1182
15 Mar 2007    4:40 Cheltenham    GUNGADU    2-1    F/19    3.2    -1282
15 Mar 2007    5:20 Cheltenham    KADOUN    13-2    18/24    8.6    -1382
16 Mar 2007    2:00 Cheltenham    LOUNAOS    7-2    10/23    5.1    -1482
16 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    WICHITA LINEMAN    11-8    1/20    2.48    -1335
16 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    5-4    1/18    2.34    -1200
16 Mar 2007    4:00 Cheltenham    WHYSO MAYO    2-1    2/24    3.2    -1300
16 Mar 2007    4:40 Cheltenham    SAINTSAIRE    5-2    6/23    3.8    -1400
16 Mar 2007    5:20 Cheltenham    FAIR ALONG    3-1    25/28    4.5    -1500
11 Mar 2008    2:35 Cheltenham    NOLAND    7-4    3/14    3.1    -1600
11 Mar 2008    3:15 Cheltenham    SIZING EUROPE    2-1    14/15    3.3    -1700
11 Mar 2008    4:00 Cheltenham    L'AMI    11-2    3/14    7.4    -1800
11 Mar 2008    4:40 Cheltenham    WONDERKID    5-2    6/16    4.0    -1900
11 Mar 2008    5:20 Cheltenham    ASHKAZAR    15-8    2/22    3.0    -2000
13 Mar 2008    12:30 Cheltenham    ORNAIS    9-2    5/20    5.9    -2100
13 Mar 2008    1:05 Cheltenham    ALBERTAS RUN    4-1    1/11    5.0    -1697
13 Mar 2008    1:40 Cheltenham    MR STRACHAN    13-2    F/20    9.0    -1797
13 Mar 2008    2:20 Cheltenham    VOY POR USTEDES    5-2    2/8    3.6    -1897
13 Mar 2008    2:55 Cheltenham    THE LISTENER    10-3    5/9    4.3    -1997
13 Mar 2008    3:30 Cheltenham    INGLIS DREVER    11-8    1/17    2.52    -1845
13 Mar 2008    4:05 Cheltenham    DON'T PUSH IT    5-2    F/22    4.4    -1945
13 Mar 2008    5:15 Cheltenham    MY IMMORTAL    7-1    F/24    9.2    -2045
13 Mar 2008    5:50 Cheltenham    ZAARITO    3-1    3/23    4.7    -2145
14 Mar 2008    12:30 Cheltenham    CHOMBA WOMBA    10-3    3/13    4.5    -2245
14 Mar 2008    1:05 Cheltenham    AIGLE D'OR    4-1    13/15    5.8    -2345
14 Mar 2008    1:40 Cheltenham    COUNTY ZEN    11-2    18/24    6.5    -2445
14 Mar 2008    2:15 Cheltenham    FRANCHOEK    1-1    2/14    2.14    -2545
14 Mar 2008    3:30 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    10-11    2/12    2.01    -2645
14 Mar 2008    4:05 Cheltenham    AGUS A VIC    5-1    P/23    6.4    -2745
14 Mar 2008    4:40 Cheltenham    MY PETRA    3-1    2/17    4.7    -2845
14 Mar 2008    5:20 Cheltenham    PSYCHO    5-1    2/22    8.0    -2945
10 Mar 2009    1:30 Cheltenham    COUSIN VINNY    9-4    5/20    3.6    -3045
10 Mar 2009    2:05 Cheltenham    TATENEN    4-1    F/17    5.3    -3145
10 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    WICHITA LINEMAN    5-1    1/21    7.0    -2548
10 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    BINOCULAR    6-4    3/23    2.80    -2648
10 Mar 2009    4:00 Cheltenham    L'AMI    7-4    2/16    2.76    -2748
10 Mar 2009    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    2-1    1/21    3.2    -2523
11 Mar 2009    1:30 Cheltenham    CAN'T BUY TIME    4-1    4/19    5.8    -2623
11 Mar 2009    2:05 Cheltenham    MIKAEL D'HAGUENET    5-2    1/14    3.7    -2354
11 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    COOLDINE    9-4    1/15    3.9    -2064
11 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    4-11    1/12    1.41    -2023
11 Mar 2009    4:00 Cheltenham    THE POLOMOCHE    6-1    10/27    8.0    -2123
11 Mar 2009    4:40 Cheltenham    ALEXANDER SEVERUS    5-2    4/22    4.1    -2223
11 Mar 2009    5:15 Cheltenham    RITE OF PASSAGE    5-2    3/24    3.7    -2323
12 Mar 2009    1:30 Cheltenham    KIA KAHA    15-2    10/20    11.0    -2423
12 Mar 2009    2:05 Cheltenham    BALLYDUB    7-1    12/22    8.2    -2523
12 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    VOY POR USTEDES    4-5    2/10    1.85    -2623
12 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    KASBAH BLISS    10-11    4/14    2.03    -2723
12 Mar 2009    4:00 Cheltenham    PING PONG SIVOLA    13-2    2/23    8.2    -2823
12 Mar 2009    4:40 Cheltenham    POKER DE SIVOLA    7-2    7/24    5.2    -2923
13 Mar 2009    1:30 Cheltenham    WALKON    4-1    2/18    5.7    -3023
13 Mar 2009    2:05 Cheltenham    DAVE'S DREAM    7-2    6/27    4.8    -3123
13 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    PRIDE OF DULCOTE    3-1    2/17    4.3    -3223
13 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    7-4    1/16    2.88    -3036
13 Mar 2009    4:00 Cheltenham    JUVEIGNEUR    7-2    12/24    4.8    -3136
13 Mar 2009    4:40 Cheltenham    BIG EARED FRAN    7-2    3/23    5.0    -3236
13 Mar 2009    5:15 Cheltenham    POQUELIN    3-1    8/18    5.2    -3336
16 Mar 2010    1:30 Cheltenham    DUNGUIB    4-5    3/18    1.81    -3436
16 Mar 2010    2:05 Cheltenham    CAPTAIN CEE BEE    5-2    8/12    3.7    -3536
16 Mar 2010    2:40 Cheltenham    THE PACKAGE    9-2    2/24    6.7    -3636
16 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    GO NATIVE    11-4    10/12    4.5    -3736
16 Mar 2010    4:00 Cheltenham    GARDE CHAMPETRE    7-4    5/16    2.99    -3836
16 Mar 2010    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    6-4    1/17    2.66    -3670
17 Mar 2010    1:30 Cheltenham    MOBAASHER    6-1    5/18    7.7    -3770
17 Mar 2010    2:05 Cheltenham    RITE OF PASSAGE    7-2    3/17    5.2    -3870
17 Mar 2010    2:40 Cheltenham    PUNCHESTOWNS    2-1    5/9    3.3    -3970
17 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    4-5    4/9    1.81    -4070
17 Mar 2010    4:00 Cheltenham    DEUTSCHLAND    7-1    12/28    8.6    -4170
17 Mar 2010    4:40 Cheltenham    SANCTUAIRE    4-1    1/24    5.8    -3692
17 Mar 2010    5:15 Cheltenham    SHOT FROM THE HIP    3-1    20/24    4.9    -3792
18 Mar 2010    1:30 Cheltenham    RIVALISTE    6-1    7/20    7.8    -3892
18 Mar 2010    2:05 Cheltenham    ALFIE SHERRIN    11-4    12/24    4.0    -3992
18 Mar 2010    2:40 Cheltenham    POQUELIN    11-4    2/13    3.9    -4092
18 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    BIG BUCK'S    5-6    1/14    1.96    -3996
18 Mar 2010    4:00 Cheltenham    SUNNYHILLBOY    6-1    2/24    8.2    -4096
18 Mar 2010    4:40 Cheltenham    GALANT NUIT    11-2    3/24    7.8    -4196
19 Mar 2010    1:30 Cheltenham    CARLITO BRIGANTE    7-2    4/17    4.7    -4296
19 Mar 2010    2:05 Cheltenham    TITO BUSTILLO    7-1    23/28    9.5    -4396
19 Mar 2010    2:40 Cheltenham    TELL MASSINI    10-3    P/19    4.5    -4496
19 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    8-11    F/11    1.93    -4596
19 Mar 2010    4:40 Cheltenham    ASHKAZAR    9-2    7/24    7.0    -4696
19 Mar 2010    5:15 Cheltenham    YOU'RE THE TOP    13-2    P/19    9.2    -4796
15 Mar 2011    1:30 Cheltenham    CUE CARD    7-4    4/15    2.88    -4896
15 Mar 2011    2:05 Cheltenham    MEDERMIT    11-4    4/10    4.0    -4996
15 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    SUNNYHILLBOY    9-2    F/19    6.2    -5096
15 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    HURRICANE FLY    11-4    1/11    4.0    -4800
15 Mar 2011    4:00 Cheltenham    MALJIMAR    9-2    4/15    6.2    -4900
15 Mar 2011    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    5-6    1/14    1.90    -4811
15 Mar 2011    5:15 Cheltenham    DEFINITY    3-1    5/20    4.4    -4911
16 Mar 2011    1:30 Cheltenham    CHICAGO GREY    5-1    1/16    6.7    -4342
16 Mar 2011    2:05 Cheltenham    SO YOUNG    2-1    3/12    3.2    -4442
16 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    TIME FOR RUPERT    7-4    5/12    2.88    -4542
16 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    2-1    8/11    3.2    -4642
16 Mar 2011    4:00 Cheltenham    CALL THE POLICE    7-2    11/22    5.0    -4742
16 Mar 2011    4:40 Cheltenham    PLAN A    4-1    4/23    5.6    -4842
16 Mar 2011    5:15 Cheltenham    ERICHT    5-1    6/24    6.7    -4942
17 Mar 2011    1:30 Cheltenham    WISHFULL THINKING    7-2    2/11    5.0    -5042
17 Mar 2011    2:05 Cheltenham    CHARTREUX    6-1    13/23    7.9    -5142
17 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    POQUELIN    2-1    4/11    3.2    -5242
17 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    BIG BUCK'S    10-11    1/13    1.98    -5145
17 Mar 2011    4:00 Cheltenham    BEAUTIFUL SOUND    9-2    3/20    6.2    -5245
17 Mar 2011    4:40 Cheltenham    JUNIOR    10-3    1/24    4.8    -4861
17 Mar 2011    5:15 Cheltenham    PLATO    6-4    1/12    2.60    -4702
18 Mar 2011    1:30 Cheltenham    SAM WINNER    4-1    4/23    5.5    -4802
18 Mar 2011    2:05 Cheltenham    ALARAZI    6-1    15/26    7.9    -4902
18 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    BOBS WORTH    15-8    1/18    3.0    -4700
18 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    LONG RUN    7-2    1/13    5.0    -4303
18 Mar 2011    4:40 Cheltenham    SIR DES CHAMPS    9-2    1/23    6.2    -3785
18 Mar 2011    5:15 Cheltenham    I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES    4-1    7/23    5.6    -3885


Totals

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
All Selections    182    36    19.8%    78.6%


Results broken down by Year

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
2004    18    3    16.7%    67.9%
2005    22    4    18.2%    81.6%
2006    20    4    20.0%    80.2%
2007    22    5    22.7%    94.4%
2008    22    2    9.1%    34.3%
2009    26    6    23.1%    85.0%
2010    25    3    12.0%    41.6%
2011    27    9    33.3%    133.7%


Results broken down by Month

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
March    182    36    19.8%    78.6%


Results broken down by Day of Week

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
Tuesday    44    8    18.2%    68.9%
Wednesday    43    9    20.9%    95.6%
Thursday    51    9    17.6%    63.6%
Friday    44    10    22.7%    89.4%


Results broken down by Time of Day

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
Afternoon    182    36    19.8%    78.6%


Results broken down by Race Distance

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
1m4f to 1m5f    1    1    100.0%    259.6%
2m to 2m1f    66    9    13.6%    55.9%
2m4f to 2m5f    45    6    13.3%    53.0%
3m to 3m1f    43    12    27.9%    109.0%
3m2f to 3m3f    14    6    42.9%    160.0%
3m4f and more    13    2    15.4%    80.9%
Report ZEALOT March 7, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
^^^^^^^^



Results broken down by Starting Price

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
Less than 1-2    1    1    100.0%    141.0%
1-2 to 10-11    12    4    33.3%    63.5%
Evens to 11-8    11    5    45.5%    106.2%
6-4 to 15-8    17    6    35.3%    97.6%
2-1 to 11-4    35    5    14.3%    53.2%
3-1 to 9-2    73    12    16.4%    87.3%
5-1 to 15-2    32    3    9.4%    73.4%
8-1 to 10-1    1    0    0.0%    0.0%
Report ZEALOT March 7, 2012 1:03 AM GMT
^^^^^



Results broken down by Race Class

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
Class 1    152    29    19.1%    68.6%
Class 2    29    6    20.7%    125.1%
No Class Data    1    1    100.0%    259.6%
Report ZEALOT March 7, 2012 1:05 AM GMT
^^^^^




Results broken down by Race Type

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
Other Flat    1    1    100.0%    259.6%
Handicap Hurdle    24    1    4.2%    25.7%
Novice Hurdle    20    5    25.0%    80.6%
Novice Handicap Hurdle    5    1    20.0%    115.5%
Other Hurdle    28    9    32.1%    93.0%
Handicap Chase    29    3    10.3%    56.4%
Novice Chase    3    0    0.0%    0.0%
Novice Handicap Chase    7    1    14.3%    88.2%
Hunter Chase    6    1    16.7%    82.2%
Other Chase    51    13    25.5%    105.9%
NH Flat    8    1    12.5%    61.7%
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 7, 2012 6:15 AM GMT
Zealot - top stuff - interested in these posts especially the one timed at 20.03 .... and returning to the OP's question, what would laying for the place only result in?
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 7, 2012 8:16 AM GMT
Yes absolutely top stuff, couldn't ask for anymore. Notice the only year a loss at betfair sp is laying the win was last year since 2004!

I think onto a winning formula here. Couple bumper years in there, where the loss is fairly significant.

Start with £100 every year i thinks, lay to lose £20 a race laying the race fav at bfsp should return a nice profit. Should at least double the 100 on an average year me thinks by the end of the week. And that on top of your antepost and day of race bets will either be a nice bonus for you, or some kind of compensation!
Report TheVis March 7, 2012 8:28 AM GMT
What you going to do in races where it is not obvious what the fav will be?

The touble with these "lay the fav" type stats and systems is that you only know for sure what is the fav in some races when it goes off.  You lay in the morning, 1hour before, 10 mins before, your horse drifts and wins, then it isn't on that year's stats as wasn't fav -yet you still laid it.......
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 7, 2012 8:35 AM GMT
Sorry i didn't make this clear above. As above stats given by zealot above as sp fav's then lays will need to be placed just before the off obviously. I get what you saying, but there are ways around this i.e comparing oddschecker and having a couple of different bookmakers windows open with automatic refresh of their prices would give a good indicator as to which is the fav for that race.

If joint fav's, i am not sure, use judgement i guess laying 2 in the race both to lose £20 means the liability is smaller and potential win is bigger i guess so perhaps this may be enough to weigh up the extra riskConfused
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 March 7, 2012 8:37 AM GMT
And you can also change your settings under the options tab to get the projected sp.
Report ZEALOT March 7, 2012 3:26 PM GMT
Ming_the_Merciless




Not sure about - just the place lay -

cant get it on the massey site .
Report db1974 March 7, 2012 4:33 PM GMT
2008

14 favs unplaced from 29 runners (co-favs or jt-favs in 3 races)

Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on all co & jt favs) would have yielded a loss of €579.49 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)

Best win would have been Wonderkid in the Cross Country who finished 6th at 1.72 (profit of €131.94)


2009

11 favs unplaced from 26 runners (no joint favs)

Laying to lose €100 on each runner would have yielded a loss of €401.26 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)

Best win would have been Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle who finished 4th at 1.27 (profit of €351.85)


2010

17 favs unplaced from 27 runners (joint favs in Foxhunters)

Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on both runners in Foxhunters) would have yielded a profit of €1,261.22 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)

Best wins would have been Kauto Star in the Gold Cup who fell at 1.20 (profit of €475.00) and Master Minded who finished 4th in the Champion Chase at 1.257 (profit of €351.85)


2011

16 favs unplaced from 27 runners (joint favs in Foxhunters)

Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on both runners in Foxhunters) would have yielded a profit of €343.89 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays)

Best win would have been Poquelin in the Ryanair who finished 4th at 1.60 (profit of €158.33

Luckiest win would have been Baby Run who unseated 2 out in the Foxhunters at 2.07 (profit of €88.79 instead of loss of €100)
Report Ming_the_Merciless March 7, 2012 5:40 PM GMT
That is just amazing! Many, many thanks - we forget the "best" horses don't win (insert any reason you want here).... it appears they can't even place profitably either.

Need Nads the size of planets mind you to lay em and this emphasises the point that favourites do go off too short here.

Good thread.
Report db1974 March 7, 2012 5:46 PM GMT
In 2008-2009 you would have lost close to 10pts laying the favourite to place

There's no way you could consider this a profitable system with 2 losing years from the last 4
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