Cheltenham Festival
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06 Mar 12
17:02
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04 Oct 09
Just something ive just come up with, maybe flawed before its even begun but could be a nice money spinner should anyones antepost and day of race bets come unstuck.
Start with a level £100 in betfair
I have looked up last years results, admittedly only the grade one races. I am not going to go through anymore but i found that if you say put up a lay at a level stake to lose £20 laying every jolly in the grade ones you would have come way out on top on just the grade ones alone and doing these bets during the morning markets
Supreme 4th
Arkle 4th
Champ chs 4th
Ryanair 4th
Triumph 4th - i think a trend is starting to appear here
how many more was the jolly unplaced?
Cant remember Garde Champs final finishing position in the X-Country but he was fav for this race in the morning, pretty short too but the support for Maljimar was massive and he finally went off 9/2f and won!
In the Gold Cup i am pretty sure KS was morning fav, LR was backed into this position and durly obliged!
I am just wondering if this, at the fez, could be a way forward to making nice profit, so even if you come unstuck with your antepost and day of race bets, there maybe a little compensation by the end of the week perhaps.
What are the stats on fav's placing in grade ones and also in all races?
Start with a level £100 in betfair
I have looked up last years results, admittedly only the grade one races. I am not going to go through anymore but i found that if you say put up a lay at a level stake to lose £20 laying every jolly in the grade ones you would have come way out on top on just the grade ones alone and doing these bets during the morning markets
Supreme 4th
Arkle 4th
Champ chs 4th
Ryanair 4th
Triumph 4th - i think a trend is starting to appear here
how many more was the jolly unplaced?
Cant remember Garde Champs final finishing position in the X-Country but he was fav for this race in the morning, pretty short too but the support for Maljimar was massive and he finally went off 9/2f and won!
In the Gold Cup i am pretty sure KS was morning fav, LR was backed into this position and durly obliged!
I am just wondering if this, at the fez, could be a way forward to making nice profit, so even if you come unstuck with your antepost and day of race bets, there maybe a little compensation by the end of the week perhaps.
What are the stats on fav's placing in grade ones and also in all races?
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Maljimar didn't win cross country
Good luck with your bet though |
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sizing did,thou garde and majimar both placed.
itend tothinkmany of the solid favs place[ienon novice events] |
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  Yes like i said, full of flaws in above never mind, i sometimes find it very difficult to put what im thinking down on here without sounding childish with many mistakes and flaws. That was a big one, yes the did place. Just something i was thinking about. Also, you didn't say that to me just now on messenger gnashers lol. |
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why dont u oppose horse where the stats are v much against them.
take arkle favs having a poor record. nicky hendersons 0-22 in the neptune and only 2 horse placed better than 10th so simonsig looks a place lay on that. horses unproven over course and trips? |
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Date Race Horse SP Position £100 win £50 each way
16 Mar 2004 2:40 Cheltenham THISTHATANDTOTHER 5-2 F/16 -100 -100 16 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham ROOSTER BOOSTER 11-8 2/14 -200 -136 17 Mar 2004 2:00 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 7-4 2/15 -300 -168 17 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 11-8 3/10 -400 -205 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 5-6 F/8 -500 -305 18 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 8-11 2/10 -600 -347 18 Mar 2004 3:15 Cheltenham BEST MATE 8-11 1/10 -527 -304 18 Mar 2004 5:10 Cheltenham LA LANDIERE 5-2 6/7 -627 -404 15 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham WAR OF ATTRITION 11-4 7/19 -727 -504 16 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 6-4 1/8 -577 -414 17 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 7-4 P/12 -677 -514 17 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 6-5 2/12 -777 -552 18 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham BREWSTER 9-4 3/18 -877 -579 14 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham SWEET WAKE 5-2 5/20 -977 -679 14 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham BRAVE INCA 7-4 1/18 -802 -574 15 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham DENMAN 11-10 2/17 -902 -613 15 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 2-1 F/12 -1002 -713 15 Mar 2006 5:20 Cheltenham EQUUS MAXIMUS 5-2 12/23 -1102 -813 17 Mar 2006 2:35 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 1-1 1/19 -1002 -753 13 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham AMARETTO ROSE 2-1 3/22 -1102 -783 13 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham DETROIT CITY 6-4 6/10 -1202 -883 14 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham ARAN CONCERTO 5-2 5/15 -1302 -983 14 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham DENMAN 6-5 1/17 -1182 -911 14 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham WELL CHIEF 1-1 F/10 -1282 -1011 15 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham MONET'S GARDEN 7-4 4/9 -1382 -1111 15 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 2-1 F/14 -1482 -1211 16 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham WICHITA LINEMAN 11-8 1/20 -1344 -1129 16 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 5-4 1/18 -1219 -1054 11 Mar 2008 2:35 Cheltenham NOLAND 7-4 3/14 -1319 -1086 11 Mar 2008 3:15 Cheltenham SIZING EUROPE 2-1 14/15 -1419 -1186 13 Mar 2008 2:20 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 5-2 2/8 -1519 -1211 13 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 11-8 1/17 -1382 -1129 14 Mar 2008 2:15 Cheltenham FRANCHOEK 1-1 2/14 -1482 -1169 14 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 10-11 2/12 -1582 -1210 10 Mar 2009 1:30 Cheltenham COUSIN VINNY 9-4 5/20 -1682 -1310 10 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham BINOCULAR 6-4 3/23 -1782 -1345 10 Mar 2009 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 2-1 1/21 -1582 -1225 11 Mar 2009 2:05 Cheltenham MIKAEL D'HAGUENET 5-2 1/14 -1332 -1075 11 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham COOLDINE 9-4 1/15 -1107 -940 11 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-11 1/12 -1070 -918 11 Mar 2009 5:15 Cheltenham RITE OF PASSAGE 5-2 3/24 -1170 -943 12 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 4-5 2/10 -1270 -985 12 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KASBAH BLISS 10-11 4/14 -1370 -1085 13 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 7-4 1/16 -1195 -980 16 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham DUNGUIB 4-5 3/18 -1295 -1022 16 Mar 2010 2:05 Cheltenham CAPTAIN CEE BEE 5-2 8/12 -1395 -1122 16 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham GO NATIVE 11-4 10/12 -1495 -1222 16 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 6-4 1/17 -1345 -1132 17 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham PUNCHESTOWNS 2-1 5/9 -1445 -1232 17 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-5 4/9 -1545 -1332 18 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham POQUELIN 11-4 2/13 -1645 -1354 18 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 5-6 1/14 -1562 -1304 19 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 8-11 F/11 -1662 -1404 15 Mar 2011 1:30 Cheltenham CUE CARD 7-4 4/15 -1762 -1504 15 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham MEDERMIT 11-4 4/10 -1862 -1604 15 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham HURRICANE FLY 11-4 1/11 -1587 -1439 15 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 5-6 1/14 -1504 -1389 16 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham SO YOUNG 2-1 3/12 -1604 -1419 16 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham TIME FOR RUPERT 7-4 5/12 -1704 -1519 16 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 2-1 8/11 -1804 -1619 17 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham POQUELIN 2-1 4/11 -1904 -1719 17 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 10-11 1/13 -1813 -1665 18 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham BOBS WORTH 15-8 1/18 -1625 -1552 Totals Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP All Selections 63 19 30.2% 74.2% 37 58.7% 75.4% |
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Totals
Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds All Selections 63 19 30.2% 78.6% Results broken down by Year Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds 2004 8 1 12.5% 22.3% 2005 5 1 20.0% 51.9% 2006 6 2 33.3% 81.6% 2007 9 3 33.3% 79.0% 2008 6 1 16.7% 42.0% 2009 10 5 50.0% 151.2% 2010 9 2 22.2% 51.4% 2011 10 4 40.0% 108.5% Results broken down by Month Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds March 63 19 30.2% 78.6% |
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Date Race Horse SP Position Estimated Betfair Odds £100 win
16 Mar 2004 2:40 Cheltenham THISTHATANDTOTHER 5-2 F/16 3.6 -100 16 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham ROOSTER BOOSTER 11-8 2/14 2.48 -200 17 Mar 2004 2:00 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 7-4 2/15 2.88 -300 17 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 11-8 3/10 2.48 -400 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 5-6 F/8 1.90 -500 18 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 8-11 2/10 1.78 -600 18 Mar 2004 3:15 Cheltenham BEST MATE 8-11 1/10 1.78 -521 18 Mar 2004 5:10 Cheltenham LA LANDIERE 5-2 6/7 3.6 -621 15 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham WAR OF ATTRITION 11-4 7/19 4.0 -721 16 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 6-4 1/8 2.60 -562 17 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 7-4 P/12 2.86 -662 17 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 6-5 2/12 2.28 -762 18 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham BREWSTER 9-4 3/18 3.4 -862 14 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham SWEET WAKE 5-2 5/20 3.8 -962 14 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham BRAVE INCA 7-4 1/18 2.84 -778 15 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham DENMAN 11-10 2/17 2.16 -878 15 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 2-1 F/12 3.2 -978 15 Mar 2006 5:20 Cheltenham EQUUS MAXIMUS 5-2 12/23 3.8 -1078 17 Mar 2006 2:35 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 1-1 1/19 2.05 -972 13 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham AMARETTO ROSE 2-1 3/22 3.2 -1072 13 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham DETROIT CITY 6-4 6/10 2.61 -1172 14 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham ARAN CONCERTO 5-2 5/15 3.8 -1272 14 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham DENMAN 6-5 1/17 2.29 -1143 14 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham WELL CHIEF 1-1 F/10 2.08 -1243 15 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham MONET'S GARDEN 7-4 4/9 2.88 -1343 15 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 2-1 F/14 3.2 -1443 16 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham WICHITA LINEMAN 11-8 1/20 2.48 -1295 16 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 5-4 1/18 2.34 -1161 11 Mar 2008 2:35 Cheltenham NOLAND 7-4 3/14 3.1 -1261 11 Mar 2008 3:15 Cheltenham SIZING EUROPE 2-1 14/15 3.3 -1361 13 Mar 2008 2:20 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 5-2 2/8 3.6 -1461 13 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 11-8 1/17 2.52 -1309 14 Mar 2008 2:15 Cheltenham FRANCHOEK 1-1 2/14 2.14 -1409 14 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 10-11 2/12 2.01 -1509 10 Mar 2009 1:30 Cheltenham COUSIN VINNY 9-4 5/20 3.6 -1609 10 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham BINOCULAR 6-4 3/23 2.80 -1709 10 Mar 2009 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 2-1 1/21 3.2 -1484 11 Mar 2009 2:05 Cheltenham MIKAEL D'HAGUENET 5-2 1/14 3.7 -1215 11 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham COOLDINE 9-4 1/15 3.9 -926 11 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-11 1/12 1.41 -885 11 Mar 2009 5:15 Cheltenham RITE OF PASSAGE 5-2 3/24 3.7 -985 12 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 4-5 2/10 1.85 -1085 12 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KASBAH BLISS 10-11 4/14 2.03 -1185 13 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 7-4 1/16 2.88 -997 16 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham DUNGUIB 4-5 3/18 1.81 -1097 16 Mar 2010 2:05 Cheltenham CAPTAIN CEE BEE 5-2 8/12 3.7 -1197 16 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham GO NATIVE 11-4 10/12 4.5 -1297 16 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 6-4 1/17 2.66 -1131 17 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham PUNCHESTOWNS 2-1 5/9 3.3 -1231 17 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-5 4/9 1.81 -1331 18 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham POQUELIN 11-4 2/13 3.9 -1431 18 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 5-6 1/14 1.96 -1335 19 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 8-11 F/11 1.93 -1435 15 Mar 2011 1:30 Cheltenham CUE CARD 7-4 4/15 2.88 -1535 15 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham MEDERMIT 11-4 4/10 4.0 -1635 15 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham HURRICANE FLY 11-4 1/11 4.0 -1339 15 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 5-6 1/14 1.90 -1250 16 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham SO YOUNG 2-1 3/12 3.2 -1350 16 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham TIME FOR RUPERT 7-4 5/12 2.88 -1450 16 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 2-1 8/11 3.2 -1550 17 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham POQUELIN 2-1 4/11 3.2 -1650 17 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 10-11 1/13 1.98 -1552 18 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham BOBS WORTH 15-8 1/18 3.0 -1350 Totals Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds All Selections 63 19 30.2% 78.6% Results broken down by Year Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds 2004 8 1 12.5% 22.3% 2005 5 1 20.0% 51.9% 2006 6 2 33.3% 81.6% 2007 9 3 33.3% 79.0% 2008 6 1 16.7% 42.0% 2009 10 5 50.0% 151.2% 2010 9 2 22.2% 51.4% 2011 10 4 40.0% 108.5% Results broken down by Month Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds March 63 19 30.2% 78.6% |
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Wow, never expected such an informative answer! Thanx, by looks of things you have only inc grade 1s. Is it even more impressive when you look at all races at the fez? Dare i ask? hehe
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CLEAR FAVOURITE - ALL FESTIVAL RACES SINCE 2004 .
Selections Date Race Horse SP Position Estimated Betfair Odds £100 win 16 Mar 2004 2:00 Cheltenham BRAVE INCA 7-2 1/19 4.9 388 16 Mar 2004 2:40 Cheltenham THISTHATANDTOTHER 5-2 F/16 3.6 288 16 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham ROOSTER BOOSTER 11-8 2/14 2.48 188 16 Mar 2004 4:00 Cheltenham HAUT CERCY 10-3 8/11 4.8 88 16 Mar 2004 4:40 Cheltenham IBIS ROCHELAIS 7-1 3/22 9.2 -11 16 Mar 2004 5:20 Cheltenham KEEPATEM 4-1 7/24 5.5 -111 17 Mar 2004 2:00 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 7-4 2/15 2.88 -211 17 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 11-8 3/10 2.48 -311 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 5-6 F/8 1.90 -411 17 Mar 2004 4:00 Cheltenham RHINESTONE COWBOY 5-1 3/27 6.7 -511 17 Mar 2004 5:10 Cheltenham IZNOGOUD 9-2 2/16 6.1 -611 17 Mar 2004 5:45 Cheltenham MARTINSTOWN 7-2 14/24 4.9 -711 18 Mar 2004 2:00 Cheltenham TROUBLE AT BAY 5-1 10/23 6.6 -811 18 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 8-11 2/10 1.78 -911 18 Mar 2004 3:15 Cheltenham BEST MATE 8-11 1/10 1.78 -832 18 Mar 2004 4:00 Cheltenham LORD ATTERBURY 3-1 P/24 4.3 -932 18 Mar 2004 4:35 Cheltenham ST PIRRAN 4-1 1/21 5.5 -478 18 Mar 2004 5:10 Cheltenham LA LANDIERE 5-2 6/7 3.6 -578 15 Mar 2005 2:00 Cheltenham MARCEL 13-2 13/20 8.3 -678 15 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham WAR OF ATTRITION 11-4 7/19 4.0 -778 15 Mar 2005 4:00 Cheltenham IRIS BLEU 11-2 9/20 7.3 -878 15 Mar 2005 4:40 Cheltenham COMANCHE WAR PAINT 10-3 F/16 4.8 -978 15 Mar 2005 5:20 Cheltenham EASE THE WAY 4-1 14/24 5.6 -1078 16 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham COMPLY OR DIE 3-1 2/9 4.4 -1178 16 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 6-4 1/8 2.60 -1018 16 Mar 2005 4:00 Cheltenham DISTANT PROSPECT 10-3 9/29 4.8 -1118 16 Mar 2005 4:40 Cheltenham OH BE THE HOKEY 9-2 8/24 6.2 -1218 16 Mar 2005 5:20 Cheltenham MISSED THAT 7-2 1/24 4.9 -825 17 Mar 2005 2:00 Cheltenham CAPTAIN CORELLI 8-1 P/19 10.3 -925 17 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 7-4 P/12 2.86 -1025 17 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 6-5 2/12 2.28 -1125 17 Mar 2005 4:00 Cheltenham BROOKLYN BREEZE 9-2 4/22 6.2 -1225 17 Mar 2005 4:40 Cheltenham POINT BARROW 10-3 5/20 4.7 -1325 17 Mar 2005 5:20 Cheltenham RAVENSWOOD 7-2 15/22 5.0 -1425 18 Mar 2005 2:00 Cheltenham AKILAK 7-2 3/23 4.9 -1525 18 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham BREWSTER 9-4 3/18 3.4 -1625 18 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham KICKING KING 4-1 1/15 5.5 -1176 18 Mar 2005 4:00 Cheltenham SLEEPING NIGHT 7-2 1/24 4.9 -782 18 Mar 2005 4:40 Cheltenham L'ANGE AU CIEL 9-2 14/24 6.2 -882 18 Mar 2005 5:20 Cheltenham BEECHCOURT 9-2 11/30 6.2 -982 14 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham SWEET WAKE 5-2 5/20 3.8 -1082 14 Mar 2006 2:35 Cheltenham RACING DEMON 9-2 7/14 6.1 -1182 14 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham BRAVE INCA 7-4 1/18 2.84 -998 14 Mar 2006 4:00 Cheltenham MOULIN RICHE 10-3 P/21 4.8 -1098 14 Mar 2006 5:20 Cheltenham ROYALS DARLING 9-2 15/24 6.2 -1198 15 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham DENMAN 11-10 2/17 2.16 -1298 15 Mar 2006 2:35 Cheltenham COMMERCIAL FLYER 9-2 P/15 6.1 -1398 15 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 2-1 F/12 3.2 -1498 15 Mar 2006 4:00 Cheltenham NO WHERE TO HYDE 5-1 F/30 6.7 -1598 15 Mar 2006 5:20 Cheltenham EQUUS MAXIMUS 5-2 12/23 3.8 -1698 16 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham REVEILLEZ 9-2 1/18 6.2 -1181 16 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham MIGHTY MAN 4-1 3/20 5.5 -1281 16 Mar 2006 4:00 Cheltenham ROSS RIVER 5-1 F/24 6.7 -1381 16 Mar 2006 4:40 Cheltenham FAR FROM TROUBLE 7-2 3/22 5.0 -1481 16 Mar 2006 5:20 Cheltenham OULART 4-1 8/24 5.6 -1581 17 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham DETROIT CITY 7-2 1/17 5.0 -1183 17 Mar 2006 2:35 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 1-1 1/19 2.05 -1078 17 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham BEEF OR SALMON 4-1 11/22 5.5 -1178 17 Mar 2006 4:00 Cheltenham HARBOUR PILOT 11-4 P/24 4.1 -1278 17 Mar 2006 4:40 Cheltenham ANDREAS 4-1 F/23 5.6 -1378 13 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham AMARETTO ROSE 2-1 3/22 3.2 -1478 13 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham FAIR ALONG 10-3 2/13 4.9 -1578 13 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham DETROIT CITY 6-4 6/10 2.61 -1678 13 Mar 2007 4:40 Cheltenham HEADS ONTHE GROUND 5-2 1/16 3.8 -1394 14 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham ARAN CONCERTO 5-2 5/15 3.8 -1494 14 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham DENMAN 6-5 1/17 2.29 -1365 14 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham WELL CHIEF 1-1 F/10 2.08 -1465 14 Mar 2007 4:00 Cheltenham COPSALE LAD 6-1 16/28 8.0 -1565 14 Mar 2007 4:40 Cheltenham CLOUDY LANE 15-2 1/24 9.8 -682 14 Mar 2007 5:20 Cheltenham MAD FISH 4-1 8/24 5.7 -782 15 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham NEW LITTLE BRIC 7-2 7/19 5.1 -882 15 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham MONET'S GARDEN 7-4 4/9 2.88 -982 15 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 2-1 F/14 3.2 -1082 15 Mar 2007 4:00 Cheltenham OPERA MUNDI 7-2 19/23 5.1 -1182 15 Mar 2007 4:40 Cheltenham GUNGADU 2-1 F/19 3.2 -1282 15 Mar 2007 5:20 Cheltenham KADOUN 13-2 18/24 8.6 -1382 16 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham LOUNAOS 7-2 10/23 5.1 -1482 16 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham WICHITA LINEMAN 11-8 1/20 2.48 -1335 16 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 5-4 1/18 2.34 -1200 16 Mar 2007 4:00 Cheltenham WHYSO MAYO 2-1 2/24 3.2 -1300 16 Mar 2007 4:40 Cheltenham SAINTSAIRE 5-2 6/23 3.8 -1400 16 Mar 2007 5:20 Cheltenham FAIR ALONG 3-1 25/28 4.5 -1500 11 Mar 2008 2:35 Cheltenham NOLAND 7-4 3/14 3.1 -1600 11 Mar 2008 3:15 Cheltenham SIZING EUROPE 2-1 14/15 3.3 -1700 11 Mar 2008 4:00 Cheltenham L'AMI 11-2 3/14 7.4 -1800 11 Mar 2008 4:40 Cheltenham WONDERKID 5-2 6/16 4.0 -1900 11 Mar 2008 5:20 Cheltenham ASHKAZAR 15-8 2/22 3.0 -2000 13 Mar 2008 12:30 Cheltenham ORNAIS 9-2 5/20 5.9 -2100 13 Mar 2008 1:05 Cheltenham ALBERTAS RUN 4-1 1/11 5.0 -1697 13 Mar 2008 1:40 Cheltenham MR STRACHAN 13-2 F/20 9.0 -1797 13 Mar 2008 2:20 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 5-2 2/8 3.6 -1897 13 Mar 2008 2:55 Cheltenham THE LISTENER 10-3 5/9 4.3 -1997 13 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 11-8 1/17 2.52 -1845 13 Mar 2008 4:05 Cheltenham DON'T PUSH IT 5-2 F/22 4.4 -1945 13 Mar 2008 5:15 Cheltenham MY IMMORTAL 7-1 F/24 9.2 -2045 13 Mar 2008 5:50 Cheltenham ZAARITO 3-1 3/23 4.7 -2145 14 Mar 2008 12:30 Cheltenham CHOMBA WOMBA 10-3 3/13 4.5 -2245 14 Mar 2008 1:05 Cheltenham AIGLE D'OR 4-1 13/15 5.8 -2345 14 Mar 2008 1:40 Cheltenham COUNTY ZEN 11-2 18/24 6.5 -2445 14 Mar 2008 2:15 Cheltenham FRANCHOEK 1-1 2/14 2.14 -2545 14 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 10-11 2/12 2.01 -2645 14 Mar 2008 4:05 Cheltenham AGUS A VIC 5-1 P/23 6.4 -2745 14 Mar 2008 4:40 Cheltenham MY PETRA 3-1 2/17 4.7 -2845 14 Mar 2008 5:20 Cheltenham PSYCHO 5-1 2/22 8.0 -2945 10 Mar 2009 1:30 Cheltenham COUSIN VINNY 9-4 5/20 3.6 -3045 10 Mar 2009 2:05 Cheltenham TATENEN 4-1 F/17 5.3 -3145 10 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham WICHITA LINEMAN 5-1 1/21 7.0 -2548 10 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham BINOCULAR 6-4 3/23 2.80 -2648 10 Mar 2009 4:00 Cheltenham L'AMI 7-4 2/16 2.76 -2748 10 Mar 2009 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 2-1 1/21 3.2 -2523 11 Mar 2009 1:30 Cheltenham CAN'T BUY TIME 4-1 4/19 5.8 -2623 11 Mar 2009 2:05 Cheltenham MIKAEL D'HAGUENET 5-2 1/14 3.7 -2354 11 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham COOLDINE 9-4 1/15 3.9 -2064 11 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-11 1/12 1.41 -2023 11 Mar 2009 4:00 Cheltenham THE POLOMOCHE 6-1 10/27 8.0 -2123 11 Mar 2009 4:40 Cheltenham ALEXANDER SEVERUS 5-2 4/22 4.1 -2223 11 Mar 2009 5:15 Cheltenham RITE OF PASSAGE 5-2 3/24 3.7 -2323 12 Mar 2009 1:30 Cheltenham KIA KAHA 15-2 10/20 11.0 -2423 12 Mar 2009 2:05 Cheltenham BALLYDUB 7-1 12/22 8.2 -2523 12 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 4-5 2/10 1.85 -2623 12 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KASBAH BLISS 10-11 4/14 2.03 -2723 12 Mar 2009 4:00 Cheltenham PING PONG SIVOLA 13-2 2/23 8.2 -2823 12 Mar 2009 4:40 Cheltenham POKER DE SIVOLA 7-2 7/24 5.2 -2923 13 Mar 2009 1:30 Cheltenham WALKON 4-1 2/18 5.7 -3023 13 Mar 2009 2:05 Cheltenham DAVE'S DREAM 7-2 6/27 4.8 -3123 13 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham PRIDE OF DULCOTE 3-1 2/17 4.3 -3223 13 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 7-4 1/16 2.88 -3036 13 Mar 2009 4:00 Cheltenham JUVEIGNEUR 7-2 12/24 4.8 -3136 13 Mar 2009 4:40 Cheltenham BIG EARED FRAN 7-2 3/23 5.0 -3236 13 Mar 2009 5:15 Cheltenham POQUELIN 3-1 8/18 5.2 -3336 16 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham DUNGUIB 4-5 3/18 1.81 -3436 16 Mar 2010 2:05 Cheltenham CAPTAIN CEE BEE 5-2 8/12 3.7 -3536 16 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham THE PACKAGE 9-2 2/24 6.7 -3636 16 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham GO NATIVE 11-4 10/12 4.5 -3736 16 Mar 2010 4:00 Cheltenham GARDE CHAMPETRE 7-4 5/16 2.99 -3836 16 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 6-4 1/17 2.66 -3670 17 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham MOBAASHER 6-1 5/18 7.7 -3770 17 Mar 2010 2:05 Cheltenham RITE OF PASSAGE 7-2 3/17 5.2 -3870 17 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham PUNCHESTOWNS 2-1 5/9 3.3 -3970 17 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-5 4/9 1.81 -4070 17 Mar 2010 4:00 Cheltenham DEUTSCHLAND 7-1 12/28 8.6 -4170 17 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham SANCTUAIRE 4-1 1/24 5.8 -3692 17 Mar 2010 5:15 Cheltenham SHOT FROM THE HIP 3-1 20/24 4.9 -3792 18 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham RIVALISTE 6-1 7/20 7.8 -3892 18 Mar 2010 2:05 Cheltenham ALFIE SHERRIN 11-4 12/24 4.0 -3992 18 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham POQUELIN 11-4 2/13 3.9 -4092 18 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 5-6 1/14 1.96 -3996 18 Mar 2010 4:00 Cheltenham SUNNYHILLBOY 6-1 2/24 8.2 -4096 18 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham GALANT NUIT 11-2 3/24 7.8 -4196 19 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham CARLITO BRIGANTE 7-2 4/17 4.7 -4296 19 Mar 2010 2:05 Cheltenham TITO BUSTILLO 7-1 23/28 9.5 -4396 19 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham TELL MASSINI 10-3 P/19 4.5 -4496 19 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 8-11 F/11 1.93 -4596 19 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham ASHKAZAR 9-2 7/24 7.0 -4696 19 Mar 2010 5:15 Cheltenham YOU'RE THE TOP 13-2 P/19 9.2 -4796 15 Mar 2011 1:30 Cheltenham CUE CARD 7-4 4/15 2.88 -4896 15 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham MEDERMIT 11-4 4/10 4.0 -4996 15 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham SUNNYHILLBOY 9-2 F/19 6.2 -5096 15 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham HURRICANE FLY 11-4 1/11 4.0 -4800 15 Mar 2011 4:00 Cheltenham MALJIMAR 9-2 4/15 6.2 -4900 15 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 5-6 1/14 1.90 -4811 15 Mar 2011 5:15 Cheltenham DEFINITY 3-1 5/20 4.4 -4911 16 Mar 2011 1:30 Cheltenham CHICAGO GREY 5-1 1/16 6.7 -4342 16 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham SO YOUNG 2-1 3/12 3.2 -4442 16 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham TIME FOR RUPERT 7-4 5/12 2.88 -4542 16 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 2-1 8/11 3.2 -4642 16 Mar 2011 4:00 Cheltenham CALL THE POLICE 7-2 11/22 5.0 -4742 16 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham PLAN A 4-1 4/23 5.6 -4842 16 Mar 2011 5:15 Cheltenham ERICHT 5-1 6/24 6.7 -4942 17 Mar 2011 1:30 Cheltenham WISHFULL THINKING 7-2 2/11 5.0 -5042 17 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham CHARTREUX 6-1 13/23 7.9 -5142 17 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham POQUELIN 2-1 4/11 3.2 -5242 17 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 10-11 1/13 1.98 -5145 17 Mar 2011 4:00 Cheltenham BEAUTIFUL SOUND 9-2 3/20 6.2 -5245 17 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham JUNIOR 10-3 1/24 4.8 -4861 17 Mar 2011 5:15 Cheltenham PLATO 6-4 1/12 2.60 -4702 18 Mar 2011 1:30 Cheltenham SAM WINNER 4-1 4/23 5.5 -4802 18 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham ALARAZI 6-1 15/26 7.9 -4902 18 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham BOBS WORTH 15-8 1/18 3.0 -4700 18 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham LONG RUN 7-2 1/13 5.0 -4303 18 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham SIR DES CHAMPS 9-2 1/23 6.2 -3785 18 Mar 2011 5:15 Cheltenham I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES 4-1 7/23 5.6 -3885 Totals Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds All Selections 182 36 19.8% 78.6% Results broken down by Year Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds 2004 18 3 16.7% 67.9% 2005 22 4 18.2% 81.6% 2006 20 4 20.0% 80.2% 2007 22 5 22.7% 94.4% 2008 22 2 9.1% 34.3% 2009 26 6 23.1% 85.0% 2010 25 3 12.0% 41.6% 2011 27 9 33.3% 133.7% Results broken down by Month Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds March 182 36 19.8% 78.6% Results broken down by Day of Week Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds Tuesday 44 8 18.2% 68.9% Wednesday 43 9 20.9% 95.6% Thursday 51 9 17.6% 63.6% Friday 44 10 22.7% 89.4% Results broken down by Time of Day Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds Afternoon 182 36 19.8% 78.6% Results broken down by Race Distance Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds 1m4f to 1m5f 1 1 100.0% 259.6% 2m to 2m1f 66 9 13.6% 55.9% 2m4f to 2m5f 45 6 13.3% 53.0% 3m to 3m1f 43 12 27.9% 109.0% 3m2f to 3m3f 14 6 42.9% 160.0% 3m4f and more 13 2 15.4% 80.9% |
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^^^^^^^^
Results broken down by Starting Price Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds Less than 1-2 1 1 100.0% 141.0% 1-2 to 10-11 12 4 33.3% 63.5% Evens to 11-8 11 5 45.5% 106.2% 6-4 to 15-8 17 6 35.3% 97.6% 2-1 to 11-4 35 5 14.3% 53.2% 3-1 to 9-2 73 12 16.4% 87.3% 5-1 to 15-2 32 3 9.4% 73.4% 8-1 to 10-1 1 0 0.0% 0.0% |
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^^^^^
Results broken down by Race Class Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds Class 1 152 29 19.1% 68.6% Class 2 29 6 20.7% 125.1% No Class Data 1 1 100.0% 259.6% |
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^^^^^
Results broken down by Race Type Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds Other Flat 1 1 100.0% 259.6% Handicap Hurdle 24 1 4.2% 25.7% Novice Hurdle 20 5 25.0% 80.6% Novice Handicap Hurdle 5 1 20.0% 115.5% Other Hurdle 28 9 32.1% 93.0% Handicap Chase 29 3 10.3% 56.4% Novice Chase 3 0 0.0% 0.0% Novice Handicap Chase 7 1 14.3% 88.2% Hunter Chase 6 1 16.7% 82.2% Other Chase 51 13 25.5% 105.9% NH Flat 8 1 12.5% 61.7% |
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Zealot - top stuff - interested in these posts especially the one timed at 20.03 .... and returning to the OP's question, what would laying for the place only result in?
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Yes absolutely top stuff, couldn't ask for anymore. Notice the only year a loss at betfair sp is laying the win was last year since 2004!
I think onto a winning formula here. Couple bumper years in there, where the loss is fairly significant. Start with £100 every year i thinks, lay to lose £20 a race laying the race fav at bfsp should return a nice profit. Should at least double the 100 on an average year me thinks by the end of the week. And that on top of your antepost and day of race bets will either be a nice bonus for you, or some kind of compensation! |
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What you going to do in races where it is not obvious what the fav will be?
The touble with these "lay the fav" type stats and systems is that you only know for sure what is the fav in some races when it goes off. You lay in the morning, 1hour before, 10 mins before, your horse drifts and wins, then it isn't on that year's stats as wasn't fav -yet you still laid it....... |
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Sorry i didn't make this clear above. As above stats given by zealot above as sp fav's then lays will need to be placed just before the off obviously. I get what you saying, but there are ways around this i.e comparing oddschecker and having a couple of different bookmakers windows open with automatic refresh of their prices would give a good indicator as to which is the fav for that race.
If joint fav's, i am not sure, use judgement i guess laying 2 in the race both to lose £20 means the liability is smaller and potential win is bigger i guess so perhaps this may be enough to weigh up the extra risk  |
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And you can also change your settings under the options tab to get the projected sp.
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Ming_the_Merciless
Not sure about - just the place lay - cant get it on the massey site . |
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2008
14 favs unplaced from 29 runners (co-favs or jt-favs in 3 races) Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on all co & jt favs) would have yielded a loss of €579.49 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays) Best win would have been Wonderkid in the Cross Country who finished 6th at 1.72 (profit of €131.94) 2009 11 favs unplaced from 26 runners (no joint favs) Laying to lose €100 on each runner would have yielded a loss of €401.26 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays) Best win would have been Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle who finished 4th at 1.27 (profit of €351.85) 2010 17 favs unplaced from 27 runners (joint favs in Foxhunters) Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on both runners in Foxhunters) would have yielded a profit of €1,261.22 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays) Best wins would have been Kauto Star in the Gold Cup who fell at 1.20 (profit of €475.00) and Master Minded who finished 4th in the Champion Chase at 1.257 (profit of €351.85) 2011 16 favs unplaced from 27 runners (joint favs in Foxhunters) Laying to lose €100 on each runner (incl €100 on both runners in Foxhunters) would have yielded a profit of €343.89 from all races (assumed 5% commission on winning lays) Best win would have been Poquelin in the Ryanair who finished 4th at 1.60 (profit of €158.33 Luckiest win would have been Baby Run who unseated 2 out in the Foxhunters at 2.07 (profit of €88.79 instead of loss of €100) |
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That is just amazing! Many, many thanks - we forget the "best" horses don't win (insert any reason you want here).... it appears they can't even place profitably either.
Need Nads the size of planets mind you to lay em and this emphasises the point that favourites do go off too short here. Good thread. |
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In 2008-2009 you would have lost close to 10pts laying the favourite to place
There's no way you could consider this a profitable system with 2 losing years from the last 4 |