if his shorties win he'll win.

i mean if one thinks h'flys / quevega and lets say scots irish price actually represents their chance of winning then they should be all over this offer because with the likes of sir du champ and boston bob also with outstanding chances (not just on their prices tellling us but are horses with standout form, esp BB imo) the he going to be v hard to beat.

svots irish is a doubtful stayer imo but will prob win anyway and the other 2 look bombproof to me so to me at this stage whether they actually go on to win or not, it looks a good bet imo. he has a better squad of horses than any of the other trainers and some of his horses are standout form chances in the cross country and mares. winning the gold cup with kauto doesnt get pn extra points as u all know!

I would not even react to this (thieveslikeus)fella,clearly has no clue what he is talking about,when his first few posts appeared i thought he was just fishing,but reading more just shows he was not and knows nothing of the sport

3 winners won top trainer in 08,last year 3 again was leading until WM won the second last race,even for WM to have only 3 this year it would be hard to imagine him not getting a few seconds and winning it by countback.looks a fair bet.

Mull also has Uncle Junior in the cross country and there a few people who believe that he may in fact finish ahead of Scotsirish

kavvie seems to be taking it for granted that hurricane fly evs  quevega 4/6 are already home so isnt it better just to have those in a double at 11/4ish than  take 5/4 mullins to be top trainer as hell almost deffo need another to get home.im not saying i want that double bt id rather that than the trainers bet at 5/4 .

You are right Sick but one or both could lose and he could still win the trainers.

quevega and fly could lose but he could still have 4 winners?scots irish or unc junior,boston bob.sous le sous,sir des champs,quel esprit,the bumper,..he got lots of chances in the handicaps ..5/4 great price

My last account was hacked last year and looted by some evil little thief.  I decided to restart with a new account rather than rescue the old one.  Read my posts, do I come across as having literacy issues?  No, thought not.  I did post a few times 2 years ago from the old account under the name Crossingnewburystreet (another song title) mostly banging on about why I fancied Imperial Commander and didn't fancy Dunguib so I had no reason to stop posting other than last year I was busy with a new business.  I guess I've posted a lot this year because the person I used to bounce my ideas off died last summer and I have no one to talk to about racing now.  You need to read your own posts, every time any one even suggests an alternative to HF you completely dismiss it.

Cheers Sint.

Can I just come back to a point I touched on earlier One stat you cannot get away from is that punters regularly overback many of the favourites at the festival (particularly in the main non hcps) and there is huge value in the horses behind the favourites as a result.

I mentioned in one of the 47 grands crus threads that I use a global stat for the main non handicap races that they must have raced in last 84 days,  By main non hcps I mean the 4 championship races, the ryan air and it's predecessors, the rsa, arkle, new jewson, supreme, neptune, albert and triumph  can't remember if that's 88 or 89 races over 8 seasons, but anyway only 2 winners failed that stat and 33 losers  10/1 and under. 

Anyway to get to the point, if you apply the stat as a positive and had bet every horse with an SP in the range 3/1 to 10/1 in the above races that had run within 84 days then you would have made an LSP of 73.83 points! Taken in conjunction with the studies showing horses under 3/1 make a loss, I regard that as proof that the markets at Cheltenham overback one horse at the expense of other fancied runners.  That, in a nutshell, was the only point I have been trying to make with regards to the supposedly bombproof favourites.

I actually tried logging onto the bet smart one last night CV but it wouldn't load.

Cheers Thieves. I guess a lot of punters just get ''Cheltenham Fever'' and become lazy. They'll look at a short one and pile in accordingly. Sometimes they'll be on the right fav,othertimes they wont.

was fooked the other day, back up now.

But most of us are on another site teetees one. I'll message you the site.

My point was that you can't group everything as "favs" or "3/1 and under",

novice favs are poor favs, chaing faves net in line, hurdling favs more solid and repeat winners of g1 hurdle races the most solid. Hence my point on Istabraq winning when returning as a fav, Hardy Eustace the same, Big Bucks, Inglis Drever, Barracouda....

Horses coming back to defend their crowns and being favs have a good record. They do eventually lose, but you take age and season form into account of course.

You could apply your opposing favs logic at the same time as betting big on Quevega and Big bucks for example.

That was my point.

Majority of my betting is antepost betting strictly on horses who will shorten, regardless of if I fancy them, so it yields a positive trading position on or near the day yielding free captial to make my decisions.

2/1 nrnb on Fly was obviously a solid position for example. Was only going to shorten, with no risk to my bet.

I understood what you said CV but it seems to me you are remembering repeat winners and forgetting similar short priced losers.  Barracouda was beaten favourite twice at odds on when returning.  Inglis Drever also beaten at odds on.  Hardy Eustace was excellent value at 7/2 when he returned so he actually fits my argument not yours!   

Whatever the type of race, the problem doesn't change,  it is about the market and the way it behaves in all the top festival races regardless of type.  You have a good price compared to now of course you do, but it was never in the price range I would consider, so not for me this year and I now see it as typically overbet and having a winning chance in the 40-45% range (makes your bet value congratulations) and horses with chances in the 12-30% range will now be underbet producing value in the mature market.

It's not toally bomb proof, yes Barracouda was beaten at odds on on his attempt for 3 in a row, but when he was beaten the second time he wasn't a returning champ and was a year older. So doesn't fit what I'm saying.

The Dreaver was never beat at odds on by the way.

My point is you look at the horses returning to defend their crowns in the two hurdle races and go off fav they have a great record.

for this reason i'm saying you are incorrect in grouping all the favs together. Novices races can't have solid short priced favs they are novices, Chases have fences.

Hurlde races have plenty of horses retaining their crowns when fancied to do so. It should be treated seperately.

So horses who fit my group of repeat winners of hurdle races

Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Barracouda, Inglis Drever, Big Bucks.

Only one who let it down was Barracouda being beaten when going for 3 in a row.

But all of those 5 were successful when returning to retain their crowns for the first time.

Fly fits this grouping. He as such needs to be looked at away from your favs grouping. They are not one and the same.

Fly is a 66% chance of winning imv. So that puts him at a 1/2 shot. But if you're betting on him at 10/11 that means he's priced as a 52% chance of winning. Not a big margin of error there given the stakes required

But if you bet at 2/1 and that prices him at a 33% chance of winning, now your margin is double the chances he is priced at.

This is more conductive to normal betting on a 4/1 shot that you think is a 6/4 shot. 20% in relation to 40%.

I see it differently CV, I don't rate him as having a 67% chance of beating a back to form Binocular round this track let alone the whole field.  You disagree with the race readers interpretation of last year's race, I don't. You think he ran free and is unlikely to do so again, I think he might well do so again.  Whatever, I will stick to the part of the market where the value lies again and again and again.  I don't mind the fact that I will be wrong more often than right as I know I will be right often enough and at good enough prices to keep me happy year after year.  Anyway, going to leave it there as I can't believe this joke of a thread has led to such a serious argument.

'back to form binocular' sick of hearing that rubbish,an unfit Bino beat CH by 16 lengths in the fighting fifth in nov,he then went on to beat CH by 6 lengths in the kingwell in feb,how does that make him back to form?

quite frankly,if there are still people out there who cant see that Hurricane Fly is by far and away the best hurdler in training and the best that has graced a racetrack in many a year,then you should not be gambling,

Keep up the hyperbole form man, loving seeing the groupthink in action again. 

CVB, I'm not stupid, when the favourite profiles well, I make sure I more than cover myself through ew and/or w/o markets.

Might take on BB actually, around now is when you start taking him on as he'll lose eventually.