Cheltenham Festival
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reasons why pse...
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Grands Crus i/r lay at 2 - will travel like a winner but i have a nagging doubt about him gettin up that hill at the end of a gruelling race
Quel Esprit for a place, won a very poor Hennessy and nothing in its form that suggests it can go close in a Gold Cup.
Sprinter Sacre at 11/10 - far too for what the horse has achieved. Ultimately it's beaten decent handicappers on flat tracks. Coming up against some decent things in this one and favourites have a terrible record in this race. Don't be surprised to see it struggling off the bit when coming up the hill.
Peddlers Cross in whatever race, a horse has to be 100% to win any race at the festival and i believe that he has had his problems this season, lack of schooling etc, allied to the fact horses that have not run in the current year have a relatively poor record. I dont think you could go for the easier option of the Jewson and win it at 80 - 90%, let alone the Arkle !!
Kauto and before the fall/scare.
12 year olds win nothing at Cheltenham especially in the blue ribband.
Looking to lay Sprinter Sacre at some point, top quality renewal and worth taking on at the price IMO
12 year olds win nothing at Cheltenham especially in the blue ribband.
Looking to lay Sprinter Sacre at some point, top quality renewal and worth taking on at the price IMO
Sprinter Sacre ( i predicted it would be PPs bismark) overhyped and he is up against some classy horses
Not shorties but Invictus and Moscow Mannon you could lay for your life
Quevega - odds woefully short, seasonal debut again can she really do it on debut 3 seasons running? Don't get me wrong if she was 4/5+ i would have been backing her as those against her just are not up to her standard but anything can happen in a horse race, horses run badly all the time etc etc and at 1/2 or shorter a cheap lay and worth finding out.
Sprinter Sacre - I have backed him at 9/4 but is now pp's bismark, have laid the bismark win and place every year the last 3 and copped every year so why stop with this?
Grand Crus - in RSA a win lay, if in gold cup win and place. In RSA fav's have a bad record in this race and he is beatable, likely to be too short a price too, anything 7/4 or less is worth a lay.
Simonsig - In neptune i would lay win and place, supreme winners have stamina and speed, this horse has both, he appeared to me to not stay the distance at Sandown over a furlong shorter so why should he have a prayer in the 2m5f race? Just don't see the logic!
Sprinter Sacre - I have backed him at 9/4 but is now pp's bismark, have laid the bismark win and place every year the last 3 and copped every year so why stop with this?
Grand Crus - in RSA a win lay, if in gold cup win and place. In RSA fav's have a bad record in this race and he is beatable, likely to be too short a price too, anything 7/4 or less is worth a lay.
Simonsig - In neptune i would lay win and place, supreme winners have stamina and speed, this horse has both, he appeared to me to not stay the distance at Sandown over a furlong shorter so why should he have a prayer in the 2m5f race? Just don't see the logic!
you would have to lay sprinter sacre at the price in such a hard race, would prefer to have all the rest of field running for me.
Big Bucks also very short and might come unstuck this year. brave I know but all good things come to an end.
Big Bucks also very short and might come unstuck this year. brave I know but all good things come to an end.
can't understand anyone laying monsters like Sprinter Sacre and Big Bucks on price alone
at least have some stats, trends, stable form, going preference or something on your side. Feck me, laying Sprinter Sacre and the main danger might not even line up
at least have some stats, trends, stable form, going preference or something on your side. Feck me, laying Sprinter Sacre and the main danger might not even line up
Plenty of reasons to lay Sprinter Sacre listed above judo, not just the price either.
As for trends and stats; SS's hurdle form nowhere near stacks up to the typical profile of Arkle winners. The horse was not suited to the stiff finish last year in the Supreme. Only 2 favourites have won the race in the past 20 years.
That enough?
As for trends and stats; SS's hurdle form nowhere near stacks up to the typical profile of Arkle winners. The horse was not suited to the stiff finish last year in the Supreme. Only 2 favourites have won the race in the past 20 years.
That enough?
glossy were you at woodlands on thursday? What did you take out of it?
Just thought i would input that when i put up Quevega above i did not know about the drift on here i have only just found out this information and fully expected her to be still around the 1.65 area!
It has to be Long Run for me, its way below its form of last season, beaten twice by Kauto Star and then won a race at Newbury, but Burton Port got very close to it, abeit receiving 10lbs and What A Friend who runs a steady race beaten another 3 lens back in 3rd, that will probably be not good enough. Kauto as stated above is too old to win it, as well and Midnight Chase looks a likely candidate for the big one.
sprinter sacre, never won at track, campaigned all season on flat tracks? once off the bridle in supremem went out like a light. against 4/5 previous festival winners, ill add the stat for favs but i dont really count that, just what my eyes are seeing.
tremendous horse and a sublime jumper, only prob is hes a bridle horse and if he makes one mistake, one, he wont be winning imo.
gl
tremendous horse and a sublime jumper, only prob is hes a bridle horse and if he makes one mistake, one, he wont be winning imo.
gl
I'm not a layer, doesn't suit me, would rather have one or two running for me that I like than the whole field including one's I don't like. BUT will be looking to oppose Sprinter Sacre, Big Buck's, Sizing Europe, Hurricane Fly and Long Run.
REASONS:
SS- very poor value, gets in a lovely rhythm on a flat track and has been visually impressive but his form is much weaker than some are interpreting it as and his Raceform time figures confirm that the form is not all that it appears to be. On an undulating track I think he will be beaten.
BB - I was on him when he won his first WH when all the people backing him now were probably on the odds on favourite that day. I am more than happy to see him win without my money as I have been the past 2 years. This year I am keener to take him on as the clock is ticking. He is 9 and French and more than that is by a sire who's horses peak very early and tend to deteriorate early.
SE - runs best fresh and had a hard race in the Tied Cottage, the break between the 2 races is shorter than usual this year. This makes him much more vulnerable.
HF - most consistent horse in the race but not necessarily the best horse especially on spring ground at Cheltenham. He looks poor value.
LR - form is seriously overrated, no way is a horse that jumps that poorly a 180+ horse, last years form vastly overrated through a deteriorating Denman on what was shockingly fast ground. He is nontheless a fairly consistent 174 which makes him still a contender but not by any means a clear favourite.
REASONS:
SS- very poor value, gets in a lovely rhythm on a flat track and has been visually impressive but his form is much weaker than some are interpreting it as and his Raceform time figures confirm that the form is not all that it appears to be. On an undulating track I think he will be beaten.
BB - I was on him when he won his first WH when all the people backing him now were probably on the odds on favourite that day. I am more than happy to see him win without my money as I have been the past 2 years. This year I am keener to take him on as the clock is ticking. He is 9 and French and more than that is by a sire who's horses peak very early and tend to deteriorate early.
SE - runs best fresh and had a hard race in the Tied Cottage, the break between the 2 races is shorter than usual this year. This makes him much more vulnerable.
HF - most consistent horse in the race but not necessarily the best horse especially on spring ground at Cheltenham. He looks poor value.
LR - form is seriously overrated, no way is a horse that jumps that poorly a 180+ horse, last years form vastly overrated through a deteriorating Denman on what was shockingly fast ground. He is nontheless a fairly consistent 174 which makes him still a contender but not by any means a clear favourite.
R.E. one of Thieveslikeus's reasons to oppsose Big Buck's...'He is 9 and French'... Surely enough to oppose almost everything?
Like his parents want to sell you some vegatables in Le Market avec le wine. NO!!! RUN!!!!!!
That could be one of the worst posts ever,how can long run be a lay because its not running to form?,and Kauto Star to old?,ive not backed either but i think you'll find long run needed the run first time against Kauto,and was beaten by a rejuvenated Kauto in the KIng George,his last run everything ran to form apart from Burton Port who has proved hes better than his original 160,now reassessed at 166.
As for Kauto,how can anyone ever slag such a great animal,i personally think theyve been taking the p*ss with all these reports about his well being(congrats to anyone that got on when it drifted like a barge).
Il take you back to the Kicking King saga,NON RUNNER,drifts to 1000,miraculous recovery and pisses in,and the binocular saga,NOT WELL,working poorly(yeh yeh,heard it before),drifts like a barge then miraculously hes back to himself,you know the rest,wake up lads,these f**kers have you over every year because the sheep listen to all this media b**locks.
Tell you now,if Kauto turns up he'll most likely win,he wasnt himself last year,be warned.
As for Kauto,how can anyone ever slag such a great animal,i personally think theyve been taking the p*ss with all these reports about his well being(congrats to anyone that got on when it drifted like a barge).
Il take you back to the Kicking King saga,NON RUNNER,drifts to 1000,miraculous recovery and pisses in,and the binocular saga,NOT WELL,working poorly(yeh yeh,heard it before),drifts like a barge then miraculously hes back to himself,you know the rest,wake up lads,these f**kers have you over every year because the sheep listen to all this media b**locks.
Tell you now,if Kauto turns up he'll most likely win,he wasnt himself last year,be warned.
Riverside Theatre!!!!!! 4-1?????? When you can get Forpaddy at 33-1's???? That's my lay right there at anything up to 6's...can't win the Ryanair.
Agree with sprinter Sacre lay,might well be wrong track for him,not listening to Henderson bigging him up,anything can look good against trees.
I've not layed Big Bucks but have had a good bet on Oscar Whisky to oppose him.
Each of his runs this season he has come off the bridle mid-race and needed every yard of the trip to deal with the opposition. Last season, however, he just cruised round and was only hard ridden when he came up against Grand Crus. I think he is looking more and more a stayer this year where as previously you would have had no problem dropping him to 20f. Would you run him over 20f now and be confident he'd win?
In Oscar Whisky he has a serious rival. That run vs Overrturn at Ascot when conceding 8lb is top class form,imo.
And finally the market has caught up with how good BB is. Many of us backed BB on his first WH win (posted on PLats thread) but there is no value in him anymore, imo, not at 1/2.
Each of his runs this season he has come off the bridle mid-race and needed every yard of the trip to deal with the opposition. Last season, however, he just cruised round and was only hard ridden when he came up against Grand Crus. I think he is looking more and more a stayer this year where as previously you would have had no problem dropping him to 20f. Would you run him over 20f now and be confident he'd win?
In Oscar Whisky he has a serious rival. That run vs Overrturn at Ascot when conceding 8lb is top class form,imo.
And finally the market has caught up with how good BB is. Many of us backed BB on his first WH win (posted on PLats thread) but there is no value in him anymore, imo, not at 1/2.
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