Tuesday

The Tuesday is my favourite day of the festival. Love the speed tests of Supreme, Arkle and Champ Hurdle. I tend to have most my antepost bets on these as I always go on the Tuesday.

Supreme Novice Hurdle 1.30pm

Key Trends

1. The Irish have a good record (although last two years have been British winners)
2. Rule out the favourite, only 3 in 16 of last runnings have been priced less than 3/1
3. Won last time out, 13 of last 15 won LTO
4. Rated within 12lb of top rated Racing Post Rating
5. Won 50% of hurdle starts

To be fair this year there is a list as long as your arm in terms of qualifiers. The other problem is trying to work out which horses will go for the Supreme rather than the neptune.

Its been a case of watching the re runs and establishing which is the most impressive.

One that ticks all the boxes, has had the ideal prep races (ie big fields and some competition) is Montbazon who in his last race was pulling away nicely which will be useful up the cheltenham hill.

I also think Darlan has done little wrong other than the stat of falling on its last time out. That was in a very competitive handicap and he was looking good until falling at the second last. I also think that the winner Zarkandar was off an amazing mark that race so think its good form.

Montbazon

Darlan


Arkle Novice Chase 2.05pm

Key Trends

1. Disregard favourites (only 2 of last 19 have won)
2. Must have finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3. French bred
4. rated 142+ over hurldes


I think this is one of the most interesting races of the festival. In my opinion there is only 6 that can win this, Sprinter Sacre, Al Ferof, Peddlers Cross, Cue Card, Menorah and Bog warrior.


I'm going to disregard Sprinter sacre, not because of the stat that favourites don't win but because I don't think he has anything off the bridle. If you watch his 3 races he has not really been tested, that could be because it is so classy it doesn't have. However go further back to the Supreme novices last year. Sprinter sacre looked to have the race won as they took the turn. At the same point Al Ferof was being pushed along and looked beat. However Al Ferof appears to love a fight and is ideally suited to Cheltenham.


Bog Warrior appears to like soft/heavy ground and i'm going to guess that wont be the case at Cheltenham.


Peddlers Cross looked good until Kempton at Christmas when he was well beaten by Sprinter Sacre but the trainer Donald McCain has made excuses for that run and Peddlers Cross did clout the first fence in that race. However I don't like horses that haven't run since Christmas in the arkle.


Menorah just doesn't seem to be reliable with his jumping. He does like Cheltenham so could be worth an each way bet but its not grabbing me at the moment as Phillip Hobbs doesn't seem to have his quite right at the moment.


Cue card also seems suspect with his jumping, a bit slow on his two Newbury races, the second of which the whole field were suspect in jumping. I would have liked to have seen smoother rounds of jumping to want to back Cue Card.

Al Ferof


Champion Hurdle 3.20pm

Key Trends

1. Racing Post rating of at least 156
2. Aged between 6-9
3. Topspeed rating of at least 152
4. Won a grade 1 or 2 race that season
5. Won last time out
6. Rated within 7lb of top rated Racing post rating
7. Cheltenham form
8. 1st six in the betting

The only 3 that hit any more than 6 of the above are Hurricane Fly (all 8), Binocular (7 - not the topspeed rating) and Rock on Ruby (6).

Hurricane fly is the one to beat and his last run he obliterated his rivals. He is clearly a class above anything else in ireland. However I cannot bet odds on for him. He does have that previous trouble of getting right for the festival so there is always a fear he wont turn up.

I liked the look of Zarkandar but he was well handicapped in his last run so should have won that race. The record of 5 year olds is poor and the time a 5 year old did win the times show it was a poor renewal. Unless Zarkandar is extremely special it can't win this race.

Binoculars last run has convinced me he is the one to be on. Nicky Henderson is hitting form at the right time. Looking at times, Binocular won the 2010 Champion Hurdle on Good to Soft ground in 3m53.8. Hurricane fly won the 2011 on Good ground in 3m53.7. So short of a tenth of a second they ran in the same time but the fly won on quicker ground. That to me shows at best Binocular is better than Hurricane fly.

Don't get me wrong, I would not be surprised if the fly won t but the value bet has to be binocular.

Another that hits the trends is rock on ruby who ran a close second in the Christmas hurdle. At 14/1 this is a good each way shout.

Binocular - To Win

Rock on Ruby - Each Way

OLGB Mares Hurdle

The only trend worth noting is that this is won by Quevega. Been backing it all year and will continue to do so. Better return than any ISA and safer!!!!!!!!1