Cheltenham Festival
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02 Mar 12
09:47
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Date Joined:
03 May 05
40/1 seems a big price to me. 4th in the race last year staying on and only beaten four and a half lengths by Long Run last time out when probably needed the run. He's 16's in places so think an each-way bet at the 40's looks a solid bet, with possibly 2 of the three who finished in front of him last year non runners this.
There's also 16/1 available about him w/o LR and KS each-way three places which looks a good bet imo.
Not entered in the GN this year, do we think this will be his season aim or has he got an eye on Aintree?
There's also 16/1 available about him w/o LR and KS each-way three places which looks a good bet imo.
Not entered in the GN this year, do we think this will be his season aim or has he got an eye on Aintree?
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I think this is his season aim but I don't see why he'd suddenly be good enough to beat Long Run who has put him in his box convincingly the last 2 times. However, you should never be afraid of one horse, and the 16/1 in the w/o market looks a good price.
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Yeah the 40/1 looks big alright
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Is taking the 16/1 not just admitting that you ARE being afraid of one horse!
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I don't think he'll win the race tbh, but thought 40's as an each-way bet looked decetn. Saw the 16's w/o the big too since and is probably the better bet of the two. This is not banker material :-)
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Just because you shouldn't be afraid of one horse doesn't mean you aren't!
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Ha Ha - that's true
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absolutely
no chance |
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how's he going to beat Burton Port?
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I'm on @ 44 - a lovable rogue who should give a very decent run for the money.
If Kauto dosen't make it and Long Run blunders his way out of contention I think he he has every chance. |
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he's a squiggle
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He's been lined up for this and I agree really can't see how he can be in front of Long Run unless LR jumps appalling, but as for the rest I think he has an outstanding chance. I have him already in the with and without markets, and just had some more at 16/1 EW in the W/O. He improved officially 10lb from Newbury to Chelt last year and see no reason why he can't again. Last year 4th, but none of the first 3 to worry about. Why on earth should any who finished behind him last year beat him this year. That leaves Burton Port as a big danger and Grands Crus if he runs, but I can't have anything else. 16/1 EW is still massive in my book.
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he's a total dodgepot and nothing could make me risk money on him
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If Kauto fails to make the gig (or does but is well below 100% and gets pulled up like Istabraq on his final start), and, as is quite possible, Long Run blunders his chance away, then to my eyes it is a very open renewal indeed - even another Nortons Coin job maybe?
 Yes Burton Port looks next best but the bounce factor is a big put off for me.  |
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yes if the top three all fail then we could have a shock winner but I am not having WAF - he is a thief and a villain and I can't see him sticking his head in front
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I'm getting the feeling you don't rate him judo
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Judo think they are saying,not backing it to win just e/w at price w-out is half decent imo.
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All 40/1, 33/1 now gone in the outright market 25/1 best price. Still Corals holding 16/1 in the without market and is now NRNB, fabulous bet. Have had some more EW with them. Fill yer boots.
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I have tyo say that he might be a rogue but at least he is a rogue with some talent and I don't see how you can keep him out of the frame in a without market.
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That's my point EO. I actually don't think Grands Crus will run, but if he does I am not convinced. Burton Port who I also have backed is a big danger. Why should anything else finish in front of him in the without market. Midnight Chase was 8L behind last year and the rest nowhere. I don't fancy Synchronised, Quel Esprit's form now looks short, Diamond Harry, TFR and Captain Chris needs a massive improvement and Medermit is going into the unknown distance wise. The rest haven't a chance. 16/1 EW NRNB is TOO BIG. Corals only going 25/1 in outright market.
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Just because Nicholls gave this horse a good word doesnt distract from the fact he is well exposed and we would be talking v poor Gold Cup for him to win it. There are others less exposed who should pose more of a problem to the favourites. This horse is average.
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Eric read my words. In the without market!!!!!!
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eric
Perhaps you could take off that Captain Chris scarve which has clearly fallen over your eyes. The point is that he is worth backing in the without market given that he finished a close up fourth last year just behind two former winners and the other 160 rated horse beaten off comfortably. |
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horses.
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twicer just as likely to spit the dummy and run no race but good luck any that are brave enough to risk money on him
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Nicholls knows this one has no chance with Kauto Star and was just giving his owners horse a mention. I wouldnt be backing him in the without market either. If the Gold Cup isnt won by the front two then you are looking for a novice from last year or an un-exposed type not one as exposed as WAF.
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Eric the Novices from last year are rubbish, have you not been watching? Unexposed horses, please name one? Can only think of Medermit at the distance and the distance is the big IF. Grands Crus IF he runs?
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Love this Horse,Himself and Tidle Bay are always a joy to watch during their races
Should be renamed What a Fraud and idle bay |
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Look at winners in recent years it is normally novices at the trip or moving up in trip for their first senior season that become Gold Cup winners not exposed animals like WAF. Novices like Grand Crus struggle always. Outside the fav the former group is where you look for a surprise winner.
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eric he's just asked you to name them,and you didnt or couldnt
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Eric, do you read what has been written. Please name YOUR novice? OTS like the new names
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I told you the group you name them.
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Eric you're a clown. Good luck with the novice.
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The only one i can think of is Quel Esprit eric,Can you name anymore?
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matters not a jot what the opposition may be, backing known rogues, villains and twicers is never a long term betting strategy worth considering
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Agree OTS but his last win leaves him with loads to find!
What did Nicholls say today about WAF? |
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Judo you maybe right. If he were 5/1 that would be a different matter, but 16/1 is well worth the risk IMO.
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im not saying he'll win shockster,just giving eric a helping hand mate
Ruby reckons QE would be a good thing if they ran him in the Ryanair. Didnt hear what Nicholls said about WAF,probably just trying to keep Sir Alex sweet |
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absolutely worth the risk,people backing him at big odds are hoping for a place more so then winning,i wouldnt be at all surprised to see the old rogues WAF and TD coming from a different parish Scrapping it out for a place,it would be quite a site to behold
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punting is all risk vs reward shock mate
and I like to know I'm gonna get a run for my money so I don't back rogues and this one has to reverse form with others, so not for me at any price as there is value elsewhere already snaffled |