Cheltenham Festival
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Maguire Peddlers still for Arkle
Maguire Peddlers still for Arkle
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Replies: 94
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If anyone was asking me about hisfuture I dont think he will be a good enough jumper or have the finishing toe for a Gold Cup and will be a strong Ryanair contender year on year. The Jewson will be his trip imo.
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So why did the trainer not come out and say Jewson in the aftermath of that race - he didin't and for weeks after he said Arkle (Plan A earleir this week remember). He talked the talk but as he has got nearer the race he has had the jitters imo. I am not saying the Jewson isn't his best trip or chance what I am saying is that DMcC had never talked in public about PC running in the Jewson until the week just past. If the beating by SS made him change his mind then why keep talking up his chances in the Arkle ?
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eric talking absolute bollocks again,no surprise there
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If you ever post up anything that doesnt have'loser' tattooed all over your forehead I'll let you know.
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eric is right on many things about peddlers cross
does anybody think he will run at cheltenham |
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Yes. I think he will run in the Arkle.
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The Owner has invested big time in racing, he lives not far from me, he has only put this money in to win championship races. Look at the number of time she has run Overturn .
He wants the main dish. If he is fit he will go Arkle. |
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EDIT ; He (s)
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Donald McCain on twitter;
"Peddlers will be schooling over the next couple of days & I'll then sit down with Tim Leslie & let everyone know which race he'll go for .." |
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More....
"I appreciate it's frustrating but as soon as we decide his target, I will let everyone know straight away" |
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Any thoughts on that?
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Good schooling - Arkle / Bad schooling - Jewson ?
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and then this....
Is the Queen Mother Champion Chase out of the question Peddlers Cross - yes, for this year anyway That is interesting for me. Why if not out of the question for future years, would they even be considering anything but the Arkle this year? |
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This is starting to royally P me off now. Last Wednesday it was "Plan A" now;
"Peddlers best form is 2m, so why now Jewson a consideration? - same reason he ran in Neptune, sometimes happens too quick" "simple question is plan A still firmly the Arkle for Peddlers Cross - options still open at this stage" Seriously, what is he doing to the every day punter? Yes i've backed him but this is still a joke. |
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I believe Ruby Walsh made an observation at a Dublin preview meeting about PC's inability to jump fences quickly. I don't know whether that is a fair observation or not but if it is true, PC's pissing in the wind in the Arkle.
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Indeed he did according to another thread. I said it before he had jumped a fence, better late than never RW
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I suppose you could argue that he made the statement on a factual basis and you were just guessing though?
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Yes that's why he would be sh1t at antepost because he has to see it before saying it.
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Anyway maybe we're both wrong ... it remains to be seen.
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Eric this argument is nothing to do with the horses ability or what race suits it best or any layman's judgement of whether it's a good jumper or not. This is all to do with DMcC not making public any doubts about the horses ability to compete in the Arkle. As late as 5 days ago the Arkle was still "firmly Plan A" this after a winter of talking up the clash even after PC was well beaten by SS. Now after a few days of cryptic mumbo jumbo DMcC has even back-tracked on the Plan A statement. There was no talk of things happening a bit quick for PC before the CH last season. If the owner thinks the Jewson is an easier target and just wants a festival winner fair enough but just come out and say that. How anyone could back the horse now for the Jewson is beyond me as the information tonight suggests the horse will run in that race if the now infamous schooling session this week does not go as well as they hope it will.
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To my mind the only rational act is to lay Peddlers in both the Arkle and Jewson (which I have done). This is a reflection of what can only be described as lack of confidence displayed by trainer on PC directly and D Mc describing hid best chance of a Cheltenham winner being Cloudy Lane in Foxhunters (14/1 last week when Peddlers was 3/1).
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No, it is about you whinging about something even the SLife predicted might happen after his last run (take a look at the Analysis where they thought 'A step up in trip will now be contemplated with the Jewson presumably coming into the equation') hoping if you get a protest march going you will get a run even if the trip doesnt suit the horse.
As I say I might have been wrong nearly a year ago. The Arkle has cut up worse than expected ... eric_morris When: 12 Apr 11 20:55 What happens to the best hurdler in England over 2m after he hits a couple of fences lets say because he is fairly straight backed and perhaps not agile enough for fences a couple of novice chases in? Do they try for a 5th in the Arkle or go back hurdling? |
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Don't totally see the relevance of his straight back as many top 2 mile chasers just hurdle their fences anyway, point is does he jump them quickly enough at speed? I'm guessing the schooling session will be to determine whether he can hurdle fences quickly and confidently enough to compete at 2m, if he is more careful then the Jewson would seem a more sensible target.
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if its a jumping issue he wont win the jewson either then!
i thought he jumped well on his first 2 chases, looked a natural imo. went right handed and hit the first and that was that! either run him in the arkle or go back over hurdles imo! |
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You dont see the relevance re the Arkle when it references the Arkle? Hurdling fences is a good idea for any novice chaser in the fastest novice race on an undulating track at the Festival is it?
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Did he have time to even know he was running right handed before he hit the first?
Not sure you are getting what I'm saying. The most effective style of jumping fences is very different for a top 2m chase, you need a horse that gets from one side to the other quickly and takes a chance at the fences. If he is jumping just a little slower - not jumping badly just more carefully - then he'd be better running over the longer trip. |
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Agree
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No, I don't see the relevance to the question of whether he will be better over a longer trip. Question is, does he get from one side to the other quickly. If he has a straight back but can hurdle his fences Remittance Man/Barnbrook Again style (and most top 2 milers since) then 2 miles will be his best trip.
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The issue here isn't really about which race suits him best.
It is about the movement in the markets over the last few days and the fact McCain has said absolutely nothing since the about turn after his last run to suggest that the Arkle wasn't the target. |
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remittance Man didnt hurdle his fences imo. I think you are trying to backfit your argument. You really dont want novices hurdling their fences at all over 2m on a staying. undulating track at a breakneck pace of an Arkle.
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had he not lined up at kempton nobody would be talking about his jumping. he never touched a twig in his first 2 runs and was v efficent by all accounts.
i dont know what mccain is going to do but if he thinks the horses jumping isnt up to scratch then id forget the jewson aswell! |
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i thought he had said a couple of weeks before the race that the Jewson may be considered? Just how long before the race would him saying this be acceptable to you ... 4 weeks, 5 weeks, 2 months?
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Any 2m race, novices or not, horses that get from one side to the other at the fastest speed possible by hurdling their fences have a big advantage. Go on youtube and watch Klairon Davis in both his Arkle and CC, or more recently Big Zeb.
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The problem a lot of people have is that since the start of January Mccain has been talking of the Arkle as Plan A.Anyone listening to this and playing in the Antepost Arkle market up until the middle of last week has every right to feel a little aggrieved with Mccain
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Im knee deep in on the arkle - very disappointed with the lack of balls to make a choice either way - lets bet honest either way it is not winning at chelt if they can make mind up at this point.
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Completley agree Magic Carpet.
Immediately after the Kempton defeat, Jason Maguire & Donald mentioned sparingly that the Jewson was a possibility. But in the proceeding days and weeks Donald has almost shown an act of defiance about that run and has actually catergorically stated the Arkle will be his race. So on that basis lots of punters have the right to feel p1ssed off if he does not run. |
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I dont want to get into what is hurdling a fence or not but horses who are more agile make better and quicker fencers imo. They can put themselves right much easier and therefore dont make the number of mistakes or as serious ones as less agile horses make that may put them out of a breakneck Arkle ... the leaders are not going to wait for them to catch up at that pace .. a slower longer race they may get back into the race. Of course we saw this in PC's last run he couldnt make the ground up as he was a slower jumper with Sprinter Sacre pulling away at each fence after that.
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And I think everyone who has backed SS, would actually like to see a rematch.
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Personally I think that the drift behind Peddlers Cross is simply because punters do not know what race he is going to run in. When a trainer is hesitating about what the horses target is it will put out negative vibes. I work in a busy betting shop and I have taken bets on Al Ferof, Menorah and Cue Card all week.
The reason Peddlers Cross is drifting out on here and with bookmakers is simply a case of supply and demand. If he was confirmed for the Arkle tommorow he will once again be around the 11/4 & 3/1 mark in my opinion. I would discount Peddlers Cross' last run as smashing through the first fence would not have helped his chances running against possibly the best flat track 2m chaser I have ever seen. I do think however that Cheltenham is a completely different ball game. With a strongly run Arkle as will be the case (Cue Card connections toying with the idea of just being a pacemaker in the race) I can see no reason whatsoever of McCain doubting this horse for this race this season. If he was to ever win a 2m Grade 1 Chase in his career it will be this year. We all know that novice races are run at too fast a pace and as long as he can put in an error free round he should be able to wind it up down the hill and stay on better than anything else to win. I think he will require a step up in trip next year and his optimum trip will be 3 miles in time. To me this years arkle will be mor of a 2m 2f / 2m 3f race once the pace and physical demands of the course are taken into context. I have backed Peddlers Cross since the start of the season for the Arkle and actually went in even stronger after his defeat to Spinter Sacre at Kempton. People need to remember Mr McCain isn't as experienced at Nicholls or Henderson are with the media and he has been hyping up the horse and I think he has been caught like a rabbit in headlights with so many questions being asked about the horse. I will sit patiently and wait for him to reveal later in the week that the Arkle is the plan and I imagine he will start around 5/2 on the day. I do expect him to win. |
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With Cue Card connections already stating they intend to make this an out and out frenzied pace, I would have thought that would be enough for PC camp to think, this may just setup for them and the arkle is the right race.
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