Gold cup favourite betting

it's a good question. For all the public's love of Kauto and I'm one of his biggest fans I was struggle to see a 12 year old go off favourite for the Gold Cup. It should be 50-1 bar as nothing else will even get close. Long Run's price seem to have firmed up after an initial drift following the Newbury race, can see both horses shortening up on the day with everything else drifting. I have them at least 10 pounds clear of everything else.

I wouldn't be overly surprised if they went off 2/1 or 9/4 joint favs, lads did price them at 5/2 the pair after the Newbury race.

Plenty of money will come for Kauto because (a) sentiment (b) money always comes for the King George winner and (c) he's beaten Long Run twice already this season. However, I expect the "serious" money will come for Long Run. I'd expect the price gap to narrow but LR to go off favourite. (Thinking back to December, Kauto lenghthened and LR shortened in the half hour before the KG).

Funnily enough I was talking with someone about this this morning. I can see it being close, Kauto went off at 5s last year despite being bang out of form and in a race that looked to have a lot more depth at this stage. This year he looks better than he has for a couple of years, the form is in the book and all it will take is a massive headline in the Sun/RP for him to get shortened up to around 11/4-5/2, in which case they could easily go off jt favs, if something else like Grands crus or Burton Port gets on a roll with e/w money.

Desmond, I reckon Weird Al will be the horse for e/w money (Burton might already be a little short) - good course form, goes well fresh, got close to LR at Haydock, probably the 3rd or 4th best form going in to the race. He's already been tipped up e/w in a lot of the "live outsider" bits of the RP preview book by both the bookies and tipsters - if that's replicated in the papers/RP he should shorten considerably.

You could be right Stront, his Haydock form entitles him to be more than a rag. I've not got him covered as I don't see him as a likely 'winner', but agree he could easily place. TBF my book on the GC is a fookin shambles, 3 pre-season fancies were TFR, Weapons Amnesty and Captain Chris..... My only live hope would be Burton Port (not totally given up on CC yet), as I really do fancy something to upset the top 2 and have done all season.

I'm with you on Weapons Amnesty

Thing is, I will back him again this summer for the 2013 renewal! Can't have him beat at the festival, look what was behind him in that RSA. It's hard to describe a 2x Festival winner as unlucky, but......

I know exactly what you mean and I may well do the same - but it's a worry and a shame that he's been out for 2 years and I wouldn't be surprised if we never see him again.

I can accept Weird Al being an interesting placed horse but to the extent he currently trades at the 16+ price means he is unlikely to be a problem for the Gold cup favourite market. I may be a bit blinkered in my approach to the gold cup but to me a horse has to have a 180+ run in him to beat both Kauto and Long run and all I have seen of Diamond Harry, Weird Al, CC and Burton port I think they are 170-172 horses at best.

Fallen, I'm talking about e/w money and those looking for a live outsider. Surely only LR or KS can be favourite.

FWIW Fallen, 172 may well be enough to win this Gold Cup.
By the by, todays news will surely put the rest of this discussion to bed. Long Run will start fav fo sho now.

Quite agree DO I think Weird Al had a good chance as goes really well fresh. Took some of the 20's as seemed more than fair & now with doubts over Kauto Stars participation. Although like everyone I'd love to see KS run & win for that matter. The emotion when he's won this year has been great for racing & long may it continue.