Cheltenham Festival
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Paul Nicholls insists the inclusion of complete unknown Ulck Du Lin in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is "not a plot".
While most members of the champion trainer's stable are familiar names, Ulck Du Lin was the only horse in the four-year-old handicap not to have had a hurdle run in Britain or Ireland so far.
The new recruit, owned by Mrs Johnny de la Hey, has had five runs in France and won once over hurdles at Niort and then at Marseille in September as well as scoring over fences at Vichy a fortnight later.
He sits on a handy weight of 10st 5lb and was instantly supported in the betting from 20-1 to 14s with Betfred.
"It's not a plot," said Nicholls.
"He's won two hurdles and a chase and he's a big horse who has worked nicely and went well in a racecourse gallop.
"We thought if we ran him in England and he won he'd go up to 140, so we kept him back for the Fred Winter.
"I do think he'll be a chaser, but he could prove to be well-in (at the weights). He's fit and well, but we'll have to see how he gets on."
While most members of the champion trainer's stable are familiar names, Ulck Du Lin was the only horse in the four-year-old handicap not to have had a hurdle run in Britain or Ireland so far.
The new recruit, owned by Mrs Johnny de la Hey, has had five runs in France and won once over hurdles at Niort and then at Marseille in September as well as scoring over fences at Vichy a fortnight later.
He sits on a handy weight of 10st 5lb and was instantly supported in the betting from 20-1 to 14s with Betfred.
"It's not a plot," said Nicholls.
"He's won two hurdles and a chase and he's a big horse who has worked nicely and went well in a racecourse gallop.
"We thought if we ran him in England and he won he'd go up to 140, so we kept him back for the Fred Winter.
"I do think he'll be a chaser, but he could prove to be well-in (at the weights). He's fit and well, but we'll have to see how he gets on."
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We thought if we ran him in England and he won he'd go up to 140, so we kept him back for the Fred Winter
It might not be above Scooby Doo standards but nontheles surely what he has described there is a plot? |
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There have been numerous examples of horses arriving from France and being given remarkably lenient handicap marks by the guessers employed by the BHA - Mon Parrain anybody? And it's been going on for years - Nacarat was rated 118 for his first run in the UK. But Phil Smith is the Gordon Brown of the handicapping world - he's never wrong and he never changes his stance regardless of the evidence all around him.
Ulck Du Lin looks very much like another blunder, as Smith has accepted the rating he had in France, ignoring the fact that the French don't alter ratings with hindsight however the form of a race works out. In his last win over hurdles, at Marseille, Ulck Du Lin gave weight and an 8 length beating to two fillies that both won their next start. Ulck Du Lin then won a chase at Lyon, giving a 5 length beating to a horse that subsequently won a 52,000 Euro handicap at Auteil and followed up with a second in 270,000 Euro Grade 1 at the same track. That chase was run over a trip just short of two miles, so he seems to have the pace to cope with two miles round Cheltenham. My reading of his Franch form suggests he is probably about a stone too low in the handicap here, which is about the norm for the margin of error Smith and his incompetent crew introduce. Go back a year for a prime example - Molotof arrived here having run twice in France and Smith gave him a mark of 126. On debut he finished second to Zarkandar and promptly got raised 17lbs. Even if this horse doesn't cope with the return to hurdles, the big field and the track in the Fred Winter, I'd be very confident indeed that he'll be rated 145+ by this time next year. |
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Trenchant stuff Anorak - lovely!
given your handle on the French form, can I ask your view of Module and his mark? For all the world looked a decent 3m chaser in waiting in that Chelt h'cap in January and would surely go better again over the Coral Cup trip (and being fully tuned as I think they were just having a look with him in Jan) - be interested in your views... |
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The Incredible Ulck! Chargeeeee....
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This horse may well win and if you are on at 20s then I guess that's fair enough.
But the current price is ridiculous and based purely on who the trainer is and what he has said. I've had a little look at the form following Anorak's post. Clearly then his best form was in a chase and the horse he beat then had two good races but in hurdles? Don't follow the French NH racing at all and may be missing on a great opportunity, but this certainly is not one for me |
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You always have to get interested if Nicholls is compressing the weights, as it appears will be the case here
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Wonder if it's more that he thinks Hinterland has more chance in the FW with Derham claiming 7 than the triumph, than compressing the weights. Ulck Du Linn with Ruby up? I've had a guess on it. For nicholls to save one for this race he must think it's worthwhile, and at 16/1 that's good enough for me.
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Given he'd only won a NH novice hurdle at Taunton, you could have said the same about Sanctuaire - i.e. priced on the basis of what the trainer said.
As for the chase/hurdle form point, you're quite correct, but my personal take on French form is that there's much less difference between the two disciplines in France than there is in the UK and to accept that horses show much the same level of form in both. But that's just my view ... Re Module, I thought his initial mark of 130 was pretty accurate - the form of his debut win in France before Tom George bought him was nothing special and 130 seemed to be based entirely on his last run when he was brought down. Possibly he's one that improved here on better ground? |
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Dan,
The owners of Hinterland, are also involved with Pearl Swan and Urbain De Sivola, so they have plenty of interest in the Triumph anyway. |
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Hinterland doesn't run & they sold Pearl Swan to Geffen
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Cheers anaorak, makes more sense to me now.
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The fact that PN has not bothered (or risked) running this one in the UK is interesting enough. In a sense he got away with it with Sanctuaire who with hindsight was let in very lightly after his novice win. The immediate money yesterday following the publishing of the weights suggests someone was pleasantly surprised.
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Is it possible to have a plot for a handicap lottery like the Winter??
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DD they've known his mark for a while, at least a month ago i saw it on the BHA site.
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DD, he had to run Sanctuaire at Taunton as the rule is minimum three runs in GB, Ire or France.
No such need with this year's project. |
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Can you really back him in a race like this on UK/Seasonal debut? And what kind of ground was he running on in France .. likely to be fast jumping ground this festival ..
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Well Nicholls gave him as his tip when asked at a preview night last night (by phone) for a well handicapped one of his
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Thr trouble is, 2/3 of them could be well handicapped in this race. By definition they are nearly all unexposed.
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Nearly every horse that has ever run in the FW ''has a stone in hand'' imo. What was the name of the horse which went off 7/2 2 years ago trained by Edward O'grady ? never sighted.
Anyway, if PFN has put him up then fair enough, he'd know a lot more than us and Anorak has already analysied the french form so he does appear to be well handicapped. Gl to those with the big prices. |
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The point with Sanctuaire was that even though it was a little race at Taunton, at least it was in UK and you had a chance to see it run and form an opinion. Also PFN could get an opinion of Ruby having ridden him in a race rather than after a gallop and a schooling session and that surely is going to give a more accurate indication of the horse's ability in relation to it's handicap mark.
It would be interesting if he also got an entry for the Imperial Cup |
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Alexander Severus Sintonian? Went off 5-2 and was def sighted as it was absolutely cruising rounding the home turn but found nothing when asked and finished 4th! Take ur point thou!
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Kp i think he's talking about a thomas barr owned horse,Dont think it was AS,or maybe im wrong
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Alavian?
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No it was was Alexander Severus. Had an ''eyecatching'' run at Leoparsdtown or somewhere race prior where he just cruised up and placed so not to blow his mark etc etc.
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That was Alavain in the Triumph wasnt it?
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Alaivan did that in the County Hurlde OTS, looked to be going really well but found nowt.
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Sorry kp your'e right,getting the races mixed up!
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Last years County Hurdle.
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Argocat if turning up great e/w chance check his form.
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Was at Alan King's yesterday and they're convinced this is a plot...only danger to Vendor as far as they're concerned, and that's because they don't know how good he is, like the rest of us!
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Balgarry at Newbury bolts up on UK debut after another inaccurate guess at French form by the official handicapper. Not that Phil Smith will acknowledge there's even a problem, having by now perfected his ostrich impersonation.
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Ulck Du Lin Has about 2 stone in hand,well done phil
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Adds a stone to all irish horses and lets the french wons in lightly - wd phil
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Wouldn't be anything to do with the rich owners who purchase the French ones?
 Brown Envelopes talk  |
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The pair that finished second and third to Ulck Du Lin in his last hurdle win at Marseille, both run in a 24,000 Euro to the winner handicap hurdle at Enghien this afternoon, March 5th.
They are Une Roque, joint top weight with 70kgs, and Amie Roli, a filly carrying 1kg less. The race is the last on the card, timed at 5:55, which I believe is 4:55 GMT, and it has a maximum field of 16 runners. In the French system, Une Roque has a rating of 560 and Amie Roli 550. As Ulck Du Lin gave them weight and beat them by 8l and 2.5l, I estimate he should now be rated around 640. But his UK mark is based on his last published French rating of 590. The horse Ulck Du Lin beat over fences at Lyon is currently rated 735. |
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Didn't see the race, but surely today's result confirms that 8/1 is an absolutely bonkers price?
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i'd imagine you'll get accomodated if you put up a lay @ 9, roobuck
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9/1, that is
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