I think this Cheltenham will be the year of the Favourite

what do you thinkof peddlers cross s chances of turning one over

not much pal. The way Henderson talks he thinks he is training Arkle.

all these favs just look to good to be true to me they cant all win or can they?

I hope so on some good ones. Sprinter Sacre @ 10/1, Grand Crus 8/1, Sizing Europe 5/1. However look back in history. Littered with Cheltenham shorties that sink.

every year everyone believes it will be the year for the favs, it never works out

Favourites Graveyard

teewyre couldnt have put it any better

am not as sure on sprinter in the arkle as for me coarse form is a big plus wen u see repeat winners doimg well so al and peddlers cross could give him a race but fully expect the fly and quevega to do the biz on day one sizing looks a total class apart over 2m plus again coarse form outstanding big bucks ditto long run to finish it all off come the friday might not be that easy never is but can see all of above going real close

very solid favs this year i reckon, hoping the bookies take a beating. really think if the fly and quevega go in it could be costly.remember willie mullins has fav for x country too!

very solid favs this year i reckon, hoping the bookies take a beating. really think if the fly and quevega go in it could be costly.remember willie mullins has fav for x country too!

The novice favourites are always vulnerable because they are novices - less experienced and improving at different rates.

It is hard for me to see anything beating Sizing europe, Big Buck's and Quevega based on their quality and the quality of their opposition. Hurricane Fly also have a favourite's chance in a more competetive race.

But to put it basically, not all favourites are created equal.

Im thinking the same this year; keep looking for e/w value and then my eye gets drawn back to the favourite in most races

I read somewhere that if you had laid every horse under 4/1 at cheltenham, to level steaks, over a decent period of time, you would be in sipping a Mojito in a hammock right now, rather than trying to unearth the plot horse in the Pertemps.

kingG111111
every year everyone believes it will be the year for the favs, it never works out


I have never had that thought in my life.

Until now.

I am concerned.  Very concerned.

I think it'll be favs winning too. Fly, Quevega, BB, SE all are very solid and are in races that have many repeat winners. Gold cup is different very few repeat winners and even rarer to have one win back to back.

Novices are very dangerous, especially nov chasers. But if one of SS or GC wins it'll add to a likely large no of winning shorty favs.

The other races are very open so favs are not short prices. Supreme, Neptune, AB and Triumph all look competitive. As does the Jeweson. So plenty of non favs can win but will be remembered for the Short Priced winners of the big races.

I remember 2005 when Hardy, Moscow, Drever and WoA won (we all knew Beef or Salmon was a false fav)

I'd still be wary this year as only one needs to go down to take down accas so don't load up with just 1 or 2, remember 2 years ago Dunguib, Master Minded and Kauto all lost at odds on. took down many accas

the point that drives this home is when you look for one at a bigger price you end up not finding one to take the fav on with.

Like Fly? Quevega? Sizing Europe? Big Bucks? what is there to take them on with?

Binocular is 5/1, so if he doesn't win you'll pick up tiny place scraps if ew, same as Zark. Nothing else can win.

quevega you're hoping she has a bad day or is hampered, BB the same.

Sizing Europe is down to a fence blunder, little gravy in e/w on finians, Zeb 11yo and beaten last year and the other week.

Thats the problem here, nothing you want to take the fav on with, fields lack strength in depth. There are little or no rivals to the fav. Unlike some years.


I think we happen to have a year where repeat winners of the big races happen to fall on the same year. Plenty of repeat winners of Champion hurdle (Hardy, Ista) Champ chase (Moscow, Master Minded) World hurdle (Barracouda, Drever, BB)

No reason it cant all fall on the same year. Quevega thrown in too.

the point that drives this home is when you look for one at a bigger price you end up not finding one to take the fav on with.

Absolutely.  Not only do there appear to be some bomb proof favs lining up, but you look down the list trying to find something and there's nothing. 

The Arkle is simply Sprinter Sacre's to lose. Could turn out to be the best 2 miler I've seen (Badsworth Boy onwards).
Of the 2m Hurdlers, Binocular probably has the latent talent to mix it with 'Fly' but, injury aside, if Bino's your only hope that's troubling.
Unaccompanied at least provides a degree of interest in the Mares' Hurdle but how can you seriously oppose Quevega?
I'm not so sure about Grands Crus and will take him on wherever he goes, but then we're back to square one with the Champion Chase. The 2m Chase division has been a shambles all year.  If you wanted to go out on a limb maybe Blazing Tempo could put up a career best and shake them up but, aside from her, we KNOW the others cannot beat Sizing Europe.
Long Run is all about trip.  He's a different horse over the extended trip and although I've made a case out for Synchro he shouldn't really beat LR on good to soft or better.....and the day before is Big Buck's Thursday.  Of course, you can't rule out any horse of Oscar Whisky's ability but the point there, as with many of the other races, is that he's 7/2 and it would feel like a right turn-up.  I don't want to be taking 7/2 thinking this will be a boil over if this goes in.

Of course the wise guys will come back with 'why don't you back them all then'....but it doesn't suit my punting fibre to start crashing into favs at the Festival.  I've never done it before and don't plan to start now......but to say I'm feeling a little snookered would not do it justice

If Oscar Whisky has a good chance of beating Big Bucks why hasn't thousand stars a better one? Was staying on like a train in Aintree Hurdle and would have collared Oscar a few strides after the line. Then went out and actually won over 3m in France beating Grand Crus among others. Has to be a better bet than Oscar especially given the price gap.

I don't think beating Grands Crus that day meant much.  So did Portal's Toy and he's not all that....and I wouldn't be a huge Grands Crus fan at the moment anyway, certainly not over the trips they persist in campaigning him over. 

The current score is 2-0 Oscar.  Some say TS would have done him in a few strides at Aintree, others that Oscar was in front far too soon and did well to hang on, you takes yer choice.

Surely the main point is that neither of them have a good chance of beating BB?  A chance, yes, but a good one?  7/2 at Cheltenham and I need to be persuaded I've got a very good chance of collecting, thanks....

Agree with CV over Thousand Stars, if id knew he was running id be on at the 5-1 ew with the fav, id be fancying  him to be running down Oscar Whiskey over 3m

Havent backed an odds on chance Since 1978 at Chelt(Jack of Trumps) so id be leaving the mares hurdle race alone

There are a couple of ways to play the three races(Arkle,CH,CC) you can just leave them alone, or as im thinking of doing as a starting point,because i see them as either winning or something going really wrong and being out of the two- as a starting point you can cover the treble at 13-2

You could have a Peddlars/Al Ferof rfc also do the same with Bino/RoR and FR/BZ or whatever takes your choice and if all three favs win there is no damage

Ive played ROR ew in the without market, he is imo, very tough at 2m

No neither do, a strong pace in this years race is assured with dynase and others being prominant. Dynaste will prob try test the stamina of a few trying the trip and hope for some big 2nd place cash. There will be no speed at the end. People confuse these races for something like a chase. They go a fast pace in this race for 3 miles, no slowing for jumping a fence.

No neither do, a strong pace in this years race is assured with dynase and others being prominant. Dynaste will prob try test the stamina of a few trying the trip and hope for some big 2nd place cash. There will be no speed at the end. People confuse these races for something like a chase. They go a fast pace in this race for 3 miles, no slowing for jumping a fence.

Thought B Gerraghty made way too much use of OW at Aintree a tactic thats highly unlikey to happen at Chelt
given the trainers comments. 1,000 stars looks overpriced at 12/1 if he is definitely going to run, but
if connections decide to keep him back for Aintree after the hard races he's had or run him in the CH he's
obviously dreadful value.  Either of these 2 look better to me than anything Big Bucks has faced over hurdles and given a very patient ride on decent ground I think OW has every chance of beating BB.

I'd say it's unlikely Dynaste will set a fast pace ,as they went off quick at Ascot and got slammed. This
resulted in a lot more patient ride next time at Chelt and he ran much better.

Well, I think this just about sums it up.  We're trying to be cute and horses like Thousand Stars and Rock On Ruby are mentioned. Both are around the 12/1 mark, one of them might not run (TS), one of them would be a jaw-dropper imo (RoR), two bombproof favs would have to blow out....and we're still only getting 12/1?

If there is going to be a proper meltdown it could come in the CH via Staying Artcle imo, but really we're all farting against thunder trying to get these good things beat, aren't we?

I accept that there is a  class gulf between Hurricane fly and the oppostion but don't see it like that in
the Stayers Hurdle. Hf probably just has to repeat what he has done before but imo BB may have to run his
best ever race to win such is the opposition.

Hurricane Fly didnt win it on the bridle last year, he beat Peddlars 1.5l and he got serious with him!!


If its not soft then he could have a battle, ive backed ROR ew in the without market anyway, i dont like Zark and i feel there's not a lot of depth to the race

Plus if Paddy Power extebd their offer of a free bet if SS wins to the day of race bets as they did last year , you can have a pop at the cast and get your money back

Well this thread's taken an interesting turn....two hours ago it was all doom and gloom - now Big Buck's has the fight of his life on his hands and Hurricane Fly is there for the taking!

Keep going fellas - heartening stuff

Zilzal, you and I are wrong we watched the wrong race last year.  RP/RF racereader confirms it.  HF: always cruising, behind leaders, led on bridle last, won in hack canter with jockey waving at crowd. 

I was mistaken when I thought it said:   w'like: swtg: hld up in tch: stdy hdwy to trck ldrs 2 out and sn travelling wl: drvn to take slt ld last: rdn and edgd rt run-in: hld on all out

Hey, there is a parachute in this plan at 13-2 if things dont work out thats a few races taken care of

No bets in the Neptune,AB,Bumper, Centenary, MPipe, Mares and RSA

Prospect Wells and Tatlami in the Supreme, Great Env in the Ryanair, Champion Court in the Jewson

Thats half the festival sorted with 2 weeks to go

* delete "wrong we",

Quite Thieves.

That is the danger if you are a short priced backer going in hard

"You cannot see a eventuality where a certain sequence of events can possibly happen"

And halfway down the line when a couple of them have there is the added pressure of keeping ones nerve"

Not for me

I wouldn't even feel any satisfaction backing a winner at that sort of price Z.