Cheltenham Festival
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Binocular.....can he.....
Binocular.....can he.....
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Means little by itself goth IMO. How old were the 13? Had they been beaten in the race the previous year? Had they had serious injuries? Bino isn't too old, hasn't been beaten in the race yet, hasn't had a serious injury.
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thieveslikeus
28 Feb 12 21:39 Joined: 11 Jan 12 | Topic/replies: 514 | Blogger: thieveslikeus's blog Not bothered about one offs or two offs james, doesn't mean he cannot produce it on the day that matters! Every reason to believe he can with the recent performances and the wind op. Clock and form ratings from the 2 CHs say his best over that C,D and likely ground is good enough That makes for a value bet in my book at anything like current prices. i think ultimately we agree when all is said and done. i'm knee deep in the fly antepost and bino is my biggest worry purely because if he decides to turn up he could be a big threat. i just think that ultimately he absolutely has to be at his best to have a chance. the 2 CH's he ran were a good while ago now. especially when you consider performances since then have ranged from mediocre to downright awful aside from a couple of exceptions. |
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The couple of exceptions were his last 2 races though. Hence my optimism that he can produce his best again. The subtle difference is that you believe his best makes him the danger, I believe his best makes him the winner.
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hardy was fourth to sublimity
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i wouldn't say the kempton performance was an exception tbh. would have likely lost if ROR doesn't clatter the last hurdle. decent performance at best and would need to improve markedly to win a CH if the fly is...well...as good as he has been for the last 2 years imo.
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Tbh I threw that in to add to the debate, it's from Marmite Nick !
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Kempton was a Grade 1 and he battled on well in a decent enough time in spite of having a wind problem. Not his shining best but good enough to indicate a big run is likely back at Cheltenham.
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Goth, yes I know where it came from. I always read what he has to say, he often happens on a truth or two with his research but I always start from a position of scepticism and wait to be convinced, especially on that sort of stat.
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Thing is,Binocular would need a lot of things in his favour if he has any chance of winning,
Same cannot be said of Hurricane Fly,goes on any ground,has the toe that will kill them if they crawl,has the stamina to outstay them if they go off like the clappers,He's only ever been beaten once in ireland,never in the uk (although has only ran once) |
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Not really snaff, he is more straightforward than people think. He just isn't very effective when fresh. Off a break of more than 8 weeks his form sequence is 1135342 with the 2 wins being his debut in a modest novice hurdle and a win at 1/9 at Haydock at age 4.
With a recent run his form is 121131111311. The only defeats being the Supreme as a 4yo, the Christmas Hurdle as a 5yo where he made a bad mistake but still ran close and the Punchestown race where he had multiple excuses. Put another way look at his sequence of RPRs but with runs after a break put in brackets. (129) 138 148 157 (138) 172 (165) (158) 160 165 172 (156) 166 150+ (156) 164 (152) 166 170. Not only is he better without a break there is a clear pattern that he gets better with each race following a break. Only exception being when he ran a 150 last season when winning at 1/10 in a weak contest. |
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Dont really buy that,His punchestown flop would suggest otherwise,He's certainly ground dependant,
HF is not,11211131111111 is Hurricane Flys life-time hurdle form,winning his last 7,on a range of different ground and courses, id like to think Binocular turns up at his best,may very well give Hurricane Fly a race,But as ive said before,and it's only my opinion, There's only one Horse Capable of beating HF,and that's Zarkandar,Simply because we havent seen the best of him,he still has plenty of improvement in him,id take a match bet with anyone,Zarkandar beats Binocular all day long imo |
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Second run back after a break, ran 164 in spite of having such an interrupted spring. Not that much wrong with his Punchestown "flop" in that context. Ignore the facts all you want. Find it hilarious that you are putting up a 5yo future stayer, with so little experience, as a better alternative. It tells me I am wasting my time and your mind is closed.
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Thieves, although your words appear to be falling on deaf ears with those that are debating against you, I think you are making a great case and the more I think about it and read what you have to say the more I think there is very little between Hurricane Fly and Binocular at their best at Cheltenham. People are quick to hand out bouquet's to 'superstar' horses but if you look back at last years Champion, Hurricane looked like he could win by any amount turning for home and in the end was all out to see off Peddlers. I think class just may of got him home that day and the course, as some questioned before last year, does not necessarily play to his strengths.
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Find it hilarious that you are putting up a 5yo future stayer
Why is Zarkandar a future stayer?just because you say so? We'll see who is right and who is wrong very soon,so until then,pipe down as if you know it all, It tells me I am wasting my time and your mind is closed. You may want to look up the word irony This coming from a man who refuses to take off his rose tinted Binocular Specs. |
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Are you American snaff? Only you clearly do not understand the word irony. My mind is open to all possibilities. Possibly you have me confused with someone who has followed Binocular? I have not. Only time I ever had money on him was the CH 2 years ago, on day of race. If my antepost selection Go Native had won I'd have ended up tens of thousands of pounds better off as he was in ew doubles and trebles with 2 winners later in the meeting so wasn't a particularly good result for me but he was very impressive in victory. I think I may have found a pattern to explain this mercurial horse's performances and am exploring it within this thread. Sorry if it doesn't fit in with your mindset. Maybe you should seriously consider piping down yourself.
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Well whatever way you look at it,Binocular certainly runs well at the festival,and his form going into the race points to another big performance.
If another beats him so be it,but Bino will be a big player imo,and whoever does beat him will have to put in a real good run for sure. Anyway whatever happens its great to have the former champ back and looking good,and it certainly spices the race up!! |
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Are you gonna intrigue us with your reasoning as to why Zarkandar is a future stayer?
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I suppose it would be rude not to. Visually he seems to lack speed and stamina appears to have won him the day in both the Triumph and the Betfair. Looks to me like he could keep going for quite a bit further.
BTW, why does it matter if Bino is ground dependant? We know he acts on festival ground... |