Cheltenham Festival
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do it.....im coming round to think he can.....11/4 without the fly also....thought he looked superb last day and andy tinkler said he was their no 1 champion hurdle hope before grandouet was taken out so they must have the faith....think i will follow unless persuaded otherwise...
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Not for me, I'll be looking for the match bets and opposing him....
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Course he can; if he jumps the flights like he did in 2010 he'll be hard to beat...
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...but Zarkandar will beat him. Because he's immense.
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The word mercurial could have been coined for Binocular...
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He can. More brilliant than the favourite but less consistent. If they both get there then bino's a value bet at anything over 3/1 and anything over 7/4 in 'without' markets.
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PERSIAN WAR 1968
KATCHIT 2008 ONLY TRIUMPH WINNERS TO WIN THE CHAMPION THE FOLLOWING YEAR . HOW ANYONE CAN HAVE A 5YO AGAINST THE FLY IS AMAZING . In dec 2008 hurricane fly gave GO NATIVE a 10 length beating and was put in at 4-1 fav for the 2009 supreme - it didnt make it and go native won the race . GO NATIVE went on to win the fighting fifth and the christmas hurdle and started fav for the champion in 2010 , \ HURRICANE FLY is an absolute superstar and could go on to be one of the geatest champion hurdlers of our time |
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how can anyone say binoc is better than the fly even on a going day the fly is the best 2m horse iv seen in my life so far by a mile and that is about the distance he will win the champion hurdle by so far iv got 50 on at 7/4 and 200 at 1.91 and will be loading up every single penny i have on the fly winning 2 weeks tomo a beast end off the rest can watch his arse from the bottom of the hill
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What blackballed said!
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What was said was that Binoc's win in the Champion Hurdle was better than HF's. Not which horse is best overall in their careers. The official handicapper thought the performances were equal. Racing Post Ratings, Racing Post speed ratings and Raceform time figures all agree Binocular's performance was the better one. So it is quite easy for someone to say the Bino form is better!
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But Hurricane fly will laugh at him that's the main thing
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I expect he will, but HF is probably near his peak now he's 8.
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yeah but thats form from 2 year ago wen has he ever ran close to that again unlike the fly who you know will turn up time after time its a machine with next to no flaws bar its had a few injurys but good god lucky for the others he did give them a we chance of winning but iv gone over the race and field over and over and just cant see anything getting close to the fly
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The Fly is much more consistent for sure, but Bino has thrown in a couple of excellent perfromances in the Jan 2011 Christmas Hurdle and the 2012 Kingwell. I'd back the Fly because he's so consistent, but if Bino's on a going day he'll give him a race.
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Here's a little question for you ads to mull over.If HF was trained in England and Bino was trained in Ireland what would the prices be like?I reckon more like 2/5 HF and 8/1 binocular-yes i've said it the English form is over hyped!
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do you think the kingwell was that good celestial is a good horse but more of a stayer now so u would be disapointed if the champ hurdle contender couldnt beat him but could make a race of it for sure but result will be the same the fact is punters love horses they can trust Kauto Frankle Big Bucks and the Super FLY binoc must be the most untrustworthy horse thats ever raced but the biggest thing is MCcoy has such a downer about him when he uses to love him and even after the kingwell MCcoy still says it leaves them with a fair bit to find on the fly
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I've watched last year's race repeatedly and the impression I got is that it was nothing more than a moderate gallop up to 3 out from which point they gradually opened the throttle and the front two virtually sprinted clear from 2 out. There is a certain point where HF drops a gear, increases the revs and just ups his speed by a mile an hour or so and that is enough to see him home quite comfortably
It seems to me that they have a different pace profile every year but I am wondering whether it will be very similar this year because Overturn will probably try the same tactics (sit in front doing no more than necessary and try to wind it up). Most of the other jockeys will be expecting this and probably be quite happy. However, if I were Mr Nicholls for example, I most definitely would not be happy with this pace profile at all for my horses. Both of Zarkandar and more importantly Rock on Ruby will benefit from very fast early fractions, especially with regards to jumping, and I would be doing everything to ensure a really fast run race, lung busting fractions so that only the very strongest stayers at the trip are still in contention 2 out. Only problem is how do you do that? Well, send Celestial Halo into a suicidal speed duel with Overturn from the start is one way... If they let it turn into a 2 furlong burn up there is only one winner |
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theres only 0.09 of a second between them in there respective times for there champion hurdles but saying that hurricanes time will depend how fast he will be led to the last flight with binoculars being on slighly slower ground also it took the fly till the last few strides to get the finally see of peddlers one bad jump at the last might be game over for the fly
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The experts who adjust for the going say Bino's time was 8 to 14 lb quicker colmaaca.
judo, if CH sets the pace for the nicholls pair then it also plays into bino's hands! |
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i dont think it matters what tactics they try Solwhit team tried every tactic going to try and get him out his comfort zone and it ended in the same result every time bar once wen clearly the fly wasnt spot on and thats the only chance the other have if he turns up 90% fit but doubt that will happen and before anyone slags off solwhit think it won 8 grade ones might be wrong but not far off the faster they go the better or slower dont matter such a high cruise speed it will be wham bam thank you mam lol
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Black - I don't think the Kingwell was great, no, except that Bino travelled very nicely and hurdled fluently which is what he does at his best. I don't think the Irish Champion was first class form either fwiw.
I expect HF will win this race because he's the best horse. But I'd remind everyone this is the Champion Hurdle. it is the most competetive race any of these horses will run in all season, in some cases in their lives. These are the best hurdlers, trained to the day and all trying to win. It's unwise in my experience to assume that any race like that will be a formality. |
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you can't worry what the others need, you can only try and do the best for yours and then see what happens
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Binnocular will be 3rd or 4th at best. Hurricane Fly will win it and who comes 2nd, well there's plenty of contenders. Binnoculer has had his day, a good horse yes but he's nothing special
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God this annoys me...last year's Champion Hurdle was standard; not rubbish, not brilliant, just an average Champion Hurdle, and Hurricane Fly was all out to beat a horse who the same season had beaten Starluck - proved himself to be nothing better than average - a massively unfit Binocular, and then won an egg & spoon race up at Kelso!
Last season's Champion Hurdle was billed as being brilliant because we had Hurricane Fly vs Menorah vs Binocular; Binocular didn't make the race, and Menorah ran flat! Even if you don't agree he ran flat his best piece of form that season was beating Cue Card in the International, who went on to run poorly in the Supreme! Hurricane Fly will have to have improved to win this year's race; if you believe he has then good luck to you, but if you're expecting him to put in the same run as last year and win then sorry it won't happen. Zarkandar, Binocular and Rock On Ruby even are better horses than those he faced last year. |
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Yoda would say "hard to see the future is"
there are no definites that's for sure, one jumping mistake at 40 mph can change the race for anyone and it doesn't have to be your own mistake either, one decision by the jockey or another, gaps close when you need them to stay open... all sorts so it pays to keep an open mind I have the fav 6lb clear and that should be enough to see him home with a clear passage |
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With the Fav 6lb clear are you taking into account the fact that Zarkandar will improve probably 5lb from his run at Newbury, and another 5lb for not coughing his guts up?
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dwm - perhaps Zarkander won't be over that race because he was sick? Perhaps he's missed work? Perhaps he won't be 100% recovered? It's not a certainty he'll improve from Newbury. He'll also have a worse jockey on the day.
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There's only one Horse capable of beating Hurricane fly,
Zarkandar |
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all my ratings are peak performance potential ratings
this means they represent the approximate highest performance the horse could achieve under ideal conditions and are only based on previous performances and dont necessarily exactly match their previous performance. I could show you my ratings for the CH if you would like |
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.....beat Thousand Stars?
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I have to echo Stronts point - this is the Champion Hurdle and it's by no means a forgone conclusion.
I've just watched both races back and do feel that Binocular's is visually more impressive but I wonder how much quicker they were going with both Celestial Halo and Zaynar up front. It actually looks turning for home like HF would win by a far greater margin than he did, but I also think that Peddlers is a serious horse and also a very brave horse. Personally i think had Ruby been less confident and gone a bit earlier then he would have won by further. Almost as if he did just what was required of him to win the race. One point which has been neglected is who is on board both horses. AP is clearly a star but I think the Ruby factor plays massively into the hands of all HF believers and he could make the difference. I've got my 7/4 and 6/4 NRNB on HF so am quite happy and my gut, which maybe goes against what some other feel, is that the faster they go from the outset the more it will play to the strengths of HF rather than Binocular as his cruising speed is so good. |
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these are my ratings - they don't align with ORs but it is the relative scores that count
HF 168 Grandouet 162 Rock on Ruby 160 Binocular 159 Zarkandar 158 Overturn 158 Brampour 155 RPR only has HF 3lb clear of Bino for interest |
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As Grandouet is not running you have HF 8lb clear. Seems alot to me, I hope you're right
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Grandouet is just well over rated imo,He has such an inflated rating by beating overturn,
Overturn wouldn't get within 20L of Hurricane Fly. Has also beat Kumbeshwar and Marsh Warbler,Ye,there world beaters! |
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thing is Markphisto horses like Rock on Ruby have not yet been given the chance to improve and the CH will be their opportunity - I see him as the main danger to the Fly if there is one because he might improve for a fast run race and he definitely has scope to improve on the jumping front and I expect him to reverse form with Bino from Xmas time
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Have you taken account of how much better Bino is at Cheltenham than at Kempton judo? No way does ROR beat him at his best track...
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ROR ran a cracker at the last Festival and could run well again
it was a shame they didn't get another run into him - a fast run Betfair would have been good practice. As it turned out it was slowly run in the first mile so he didn't miss out Bino certainly capable of big numbers though although I disagree its his favourite track |
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judorick
You clearly know your onions. I hope my recent contributions have suggested to you that I'm not behind the door myself. I don't understand why we are so massively at odds over this? Bino is seen as inconsistent because he needs things a certain way to show his absolute best. My contention is that his absolute best is simply fantastic. HF may be exceptional but I cannot have any other horse close to a peak Bino and I am frankly staggered that you think Rock On Ruby will turn the tables at Cheltenham on Bino. |
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The clock says otherwise judo. ROR ran fine but was beaten by First Lieutenant! Hardly enough to say conditions suit him. And he does fail the 15 run 6 win stat too.
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only because he has scope to improve but the stable form is a worry - he can find plenty if he hurdles more fluently which he hasn't so far
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