Has there ever been so many Festival hotpots.

there may be e/w value doubles or trebles in these races 1/4 the odds .

4 odds on shots 3yrs ago. Only 0ne of them won, BB

Sorry, 2yrs ago

^ Dunguib and Master Minded if you're interested - i was so looked it up.

3 yrs ago was the year of the defeats of hotpots Cousin Vinny, Binocular, Kasbah Bliss and VP Estedes(Ryanair).  On the other side Master Minded and Kauto both won.

Kauto Star the third odds on shot beaten 2 years ago.

Fats - Kauto also lost when odds on. Thats the 3. Graveyard for short ones.

Cheltenham festival has traditionally been the graveyard of short priced favourites. However saying that you have got to judge each race on its merits. Laying Big bucks and Quevega has been the route to the poor house these last couple of years.

Dunguib was a surprising hot pot of the last couple of years and remember Barracuda being done at even money after JP had his £500k on.

Still could be the year of the bookie bloodbath

Thanks willie, misread your post for 3 odds on shots so stopped looking after MM.

2004 Best Mate at 8/11 won the gold cup but it was a bad year for backers of the shorties....

Inlis Drever 7/4 (neptune), Our Vic 11/8 (rsa), Moscow flyer 5/6, Rooster booster 11/8, and Baracuda 8/11 all got beat.

Looking back there were some shockiers - Creon at 50/1, Rule Supreme 25/1 (RSA), Hardy Eustace 33/1 in the champion hurlde, Maximise 40/1 ..... pretty bluudy

From memory 2005 was a great year for favourites.

Bookies carried out on stretchers!

had a massive bet on Rule Supreme at 28 average on here!! Was no shock to me

As already said, think there are plenty of hotpots every year. Just easy to forget them. I have never fancied the shorties as much as the last two years, and some good that has done me!

Feel the same this year, but it's a given they won't all win IMO.

When arkle won the 3rd off his gold cups in 1966 he was 1/10 maybe the shortest odds on winner ever in cheltenham history.

Last year there were a few shortish jollys beat. Cue card and Time For Rupert at 7-4, So Young, Master Minded and Poquelin all 2-1. Not as short as what we have this year, but they still all got stuffed. Tread carefully

s&c, 2005 ok for longer priced favs in the champ races, 7/2JF in CH and 4/1 fav in CGC but was poor for shorties, Favs beaten in Arkle 11/4, Ryanair 7/4, World Hdl 6/5 and the Albert 9/4, just Moscow Flyer winning queen mum at 6/4 that was under 3/1

Selections

Date    Race    Horse    SP    Position    £100 win    £50 each way
16 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    ROOSTER BOOSTER    11-8    2/14    -100    -36
17 Mar 2004    2:00 Cheltenham    INGLIS DREVER    7-4    2/15    -200    -68
17 Mar 2004    2:35 Cheltenham    OUR VIC    11-8    3/10    -300    -105
17 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    AZERTYUIOP    15-8    1/8    -112    7
17 Mar 2004    3:20 Cheltenham    MOSCOW FLYER    5-6    F/8    -212    -92
18 Mar 2004    2:35 Cheltenham    BARACOUDA    8-11    2/10    -312    -135
18 Mar 2004    3:15 Cheltenham    BEST MATE    8-11    1/10    -239    -91
16 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    MOSCOW FLYER    6-4    1/8    -89    -1
17 Mar 2005    2:35 Cheltenham    OUR VIC    7-4    P/12    -189    -101
17 Mar 2005    3:15 Cheltenham    BARACOUDA    6-5    2/12    -289    -139
14 Mar 2006    3:15 Cheltenham    BRAVE INCA    7-4    1/18    -114    -34
15 Mar 2006    2:00 Cheltenham    DENMAN    11-10    2/17    -214    -73
17 Mar 2006    2:35 Cheltenham    BLACK JACK KETCHUM    1-1    1/19    -114    -13
13 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    DETROIT CITY    6-4    6/10    -214    -113
14 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    DENMAN    6-5    1/17    -94    -41
14 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    WELL CHIEF    1-1    F/10    -194    -141
15 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    MONET'S GARDEN    7-4    4/9    -294    -241
16 Mar 2007    2:35 Cheltenham    WICHITA LINEMAN    11-8    1/20    -157    -159
16 Mar 2007    3:15 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    5-4    1/18    -32    -84
11 Mar 2008    2:35 Cheltenham    NOLAND    7-4    3/14    -132    -116
11 Mar 2008    5:20 Cheltenham    ASHKAZAR    15-8    2/22    -232    -143
13 Mar 2008    3:30 Cheltenham    INGLIS DREVER    11-8    1/17    -94    -60
14 Mar 2008    2:15 Cheltenham    FRANCHOEK    1-1    2/14    -194    -100
14 Mar 2008    3:30 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    10-11    2/12    -294    -141
10 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    BINOCULAR    6-4    3/23    -394    -176
10 Mar 2009    4:00 Cheltenham    L'AMI    7-4    2/16    -494    -204
11 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    4-11    1/12    -458    -182
12 Mar 2009    2:40 Cheltenham    VOY POR USTEDES    4-5    2/10    -558    -224
12 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    KASBAH BLISS    10-11    4/14    -658    -324
13 Mar 2009    3:20 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    7-4    1/16    -483    -219
16 Mar 2010    1:30 Cheltenham    DUNGUIB    4-5    3/18    -583    -261
16 Mar 2010    4:00 Cheltenham    GARDE CHAMPETRE    7-4    5/16    -683    -361
16 Mar 2010    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    6-4    1/17    -533    -271
17 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    MASTER MINDED    4-5    4/9    -633    -371
18 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    BIG BUCK'S    5-6    1/14    -550    -321
19 Mar 2010    3:20 Cheltenham    KAUTO STAR    8-11    F/11    -650    -421
15 Mar 2011    1:30 Cheltenham    CUE CARD    7-4    4/15    -750    -521
15 Mar 2011    4:40 Cheltenham    QUEVEGA    5-6    1/14    -666    -471
16 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    TIME FOR RUPERT    7-4    5/12    -766    -571
17 Mar 2011    3:20 Cheltenham    BIG BUCK'S    10-11    1/13    -675    -517
17 Mar 2011    5:15 Cheltenham    PLATO    6-4    1/12    -525    -427
18 Mar 2011    2:40 Cheltenham    BOBS WORTH    15-8    1/18    -338    -314


Totals

Bets    Wins    Win Strike Rate    Win %Return at SP    Placed (inc wins)    Place Strike Rate    Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections    42    17    40.5%    91.9%    31    73.8%    92.5%
In the %Return boxes above, a return of 100% indicates breaking even. A return of 93% would indicate an average loss of £7 for every £100 staked.

Sterling work Zealot

i will be backin the fly and quevega for defo prob sizing aswell coarse form outstanding and looks a class apart over 2m so hard to go against infact he should be odds on big bucks takes a brave man to lay it at bigger than 1.65 and i will also be backing long run so lets av it

bucks/ quevega / hurricane

BOMBPROOF

I'd add Sizing Europe to that Zealot.

Think Quevega is the only bombproof one.

Think of it this way - Cheltenham is the toughest race for every horse, no matter which event it runs in. Everything is trained to the second, trying, and being asked to race harder and faster than at any other point. In most races, even if a horse looked nailed on beforehand, it only has to run 2-3lb below par and have an improver step up by a similar amount to be sunk.

And when you look at this year's races, Quevega is really the only one that can run below par by some margin and still be expected to win comfortably.

the each way value will be insane, were going to be millionaires rodney

Zealot - v good list - I was about to have a "pop" and say you missed off the bridle monkey Black Jack Ketchum in 2007 but he was a "massive" 2/1 which surprised me considering the hype - but then I remembered he lost just b4 cheltenham. Nice job, nothing to see here.