Cheltenham Festival
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This year SS,the Fly,Quevega,BB,GC(RSA) and SE will start as pretty short favs can anyone remember a year with so many shorties,cos offhand I cant.So its going to be feast or famine for layers regarding the shorties are you a backer or a layer of festival shorties....me well thats a toughie.
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there may be e/w value doubles or trebles in these races 1/4 the odds .
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4 odds on shots 3yrs ago. Only 0ne of them won, BB
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Sorry, 2yrs ago
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^ Dunguib and Master Minded if you're interested - i was so looked it up.
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3 yrs ago was the year of the defeats of hotpots Cousin Vinny, Binocular, Kasbah Bliss and VP Estedes(Ryanair). On the other side Master Minded and Kauto both won.
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Kauto Star the third odds on shot beaten 2 years ago.
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Fats - Kauto also lost when odds on. Thats the 3. Graveyard for short ones.
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Cheltenham festival has traditionally been the graveyard of short priced favourites. However saying that you have got to judge each race on its merits. Laying Big bucks and Quevega has been the route to the poor house these last couple of years.
Dunguib was a surprising hot pot of the last couple of years and remember Barracuda being done at even money after JP had his £500k on. Still could be the year of the bookie bloodbath  |
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Thanks willie, misread your post for 3 odds on shots so stopped looking after MM.
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2004 Best Mate at 8/11 won the gold cup but it was a bad year for backers of the shorties....
Inlis Drever 7/4 (neptune), Our Vic 11/8 (rsa), Moscow flyer 5/6, Rooster booster 11/8, and Baracuda 8/11 all got beat. Looking back there were some shockiers - Creon at 50/1, Rule Supreme 25/1 (RSA), Hardy Eustace 33/1 in the champion hurlde, Maximise 40/1 ..... pretty bluudy |
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From memory 2005 was a great year for favourites.
Bookies carried out on stretchers! |
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had a massive bet on Rule Supreme at 28 average on here!! Was no shock to me
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As already said, think there are plenty of hotpots every year. Just easy to forget them. I have never fancied the shorties as much as the last two years, and some good that has done me!
Feel the same this year, but it's a given they won't all win IMO. |
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When arkle won the 3rd off his gold cups in 1966 he was 1/10 maybe the shortest odds on winner ever in cheltenham history.
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Last year there were a few shortish jollys beat. Cue card and Time For Rupert at 7-4, So Young, Master Minded and Poquelin all 2-1. Not as short as what we have this year, but they still all got stuffed. Tread carefully
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s&c, 2005 ok for longer priced favs in the champ races, 7/2JF in CH and 4/1 fav in CGC but was poor for shorties, Favs beaten in Arkle 11/4, Ryanair 7/4, World Hdl 6/5 and the Albert 9/4, just Moscow Flyer winning queen mum at 6/4 that was under 3/1
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Selections
Date Race Horse SP Position £100 win £50 each way 16 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham ROOSTER BOOSTER 11-8 2/14 -100 -36 17 Mar 2004 2:00 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 7-4 2/15 -200 -68 17 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 11-8 3/10 -300 -105 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham AZERTYUIOP 15-8 1/8 -112 7 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 5-6 F/8 -212 -92 18 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 8-11 2/10 -312 -135 18 Mar 2004 3:15 Cheltenham BEST MATE 8-11 1/10 -239 -91 16 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 6-4 1/8 -89 -1 17 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 7-4 P/12 -189 -101 17 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 6-5 2/12 -289 -139 14 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham BRAVE INCA 7-4 1/18 -114 -34 15 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham DENMAN 11-10 2/17 -214 -73 17 Mar 2006 2:35 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 1-1 1/19 -114 -13 13 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham DETROIT CITY 6-4 6/10 -214 -113 14 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham DENMAN 6-5 1/17 -94 -41 14 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham WELL CHIEF 1-1 F/10 -194 -141 15 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham MONET'S GARDEN 7-4 4/9 -294 -241 16 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham WICHITA LINEMAN 11-8 1/20 -157 -159 16 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 5-4 1/18 -32 -84 11 Mar 2008 2:35 Cheltenham NOLAND 7-4 3/14 -132 -116 11 Mar 2008 5:20 Cheltenham ASHKAZAR 15-8 2/22 -232 -143 13 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 11-8 1/17 -94 -60 14 Mar 2008 2:15 Cheltenham FRANCHOEK 1-1 2/14 -194 -100 14 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 10-11 2/12 -294 -141 10 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham BINOCULAR 6-4 3/23 -394 -176 10 Mar 2009 4:00 Cheltenham L'AMI 7-4 2/16 -494 -204 11 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-11 1/12 -458 -182 12 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 4-5 2/10 -558 -224 12 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KASBAH BLISS 10-11 4/14 -658 -324 13 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 7-4 1/16 -483 -219 16 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham DUNGUIB 4-5 3/18 -583 -261 16 Mar 2010 4:00 Cheltenham GARDE CHAMPETRE 7-4 5/16 -683 -361 16 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 6-4 1/17 -533 -271 17 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-5 4/9 -633 -371 18 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 5-6 1/14 -550 -321 19 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 8-11 F/11 -650 -421 15 Mar 2011 1:30 Cheltenham CUE CARD 7-4 4/15 -750 -521 15 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 5-6 1/14 -666 -471 16 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham TIME FOR RUPERT 7-4 5/12 -766 -571 17 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 10-11 1/13 -675 -517 17 Mar 2011 5:15 Cheltenham PLATO 6-4 1/12 -525 -427 18 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham BOBS WORTH 15-8 1/18 -338 -314 Totals Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP All Selections 42 17 40.5% 91.9% 31 73.8% 92.5% In the %Return boxes above, a return of 100% indicates breaking even. A return of 93% would indicate an average loss of £7 for every £100 staked. |
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Sterling work Zealot
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i will be backin the fly and quevega for defo prob sizing aswell coarse form outstanding and looks a class apart over 2m so hard to go against infact he should be odds on big bucks takes a brave man to lay it at bigger than 1.65 and i will also be backing long run so lets av it
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bucks/ quevega / hurricane
BOMBPROOF |
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I'd add Sizing Europe to that Zealot.
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Think Quevega is the only bombproof one.
Think of it this way - Cheltenham is the toughest race for every horse, no matter which event it runs in. Everything is trained to the second, trying, and being asked to race harder and faster than at any other point. In most races, even if a horse looked nailed on beforehand, it only has to run 2-3lb below par and have an improver step up by a similar amount to be sunk. And when you look at this year's races, Quevega is really the only one that can run below par by some margin and still be expected to win comfortably. |
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the each way value will be insane, were going to be millionaires rodney
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Zealot - v good list - I was about to have a "pop" and say you missed off the bridle monkey Black Jack Ketchum in 2007 but he was a "massive" 2/1 which surprised me considering the hype - but then I remembered he lost just b4 cheltenham. Nice job, nothing to see here.
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