Cheltenham Festival
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Could the going be good-to-firm?
Could the going be good-to-firm?
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Supposed to be a bit of rain around this weekend, then getting colder again. If Cheltenham fares better/worse than the national/local forecasts predict, I'll make mention of it on here. If it happens during the night, you'll have to rely on Simon Claisse!
February was basically a drought month here and the water table will be very low. |
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The forecast rain this weekend is welcome (could be a nice heavy spell on Sunday) so it could get good-to-soft / softish but then next week is mainly cold and dry again.
There had been some suggestions of heavy rain in the 24 hours leading upto the first race but that seems to be have been heavily downgraded now with just the odd light showers forecast - will need to keep checking the forecast next week to see how it develops. |
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Uncle even the most conservative forecast (rain wise) now would not see fast ground given the watering options - chances receeding by the day imo
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Look at the forecast on 'The Weather Channel'....put in Cheltenham and click the 10 day forecast. I have found this to be very acurate over the past few years with planning holidays etc......
States there is rain/showers 7 days out of the next 10!!!!!!!!!!!...even if this changes a little there is still a very high cance of 5/6 days with it before the festival....with watering it WILL BE Good to Soft. That is the course policy and I am sure they will achieve it with ease.....it usually goes a little softer than that anyway. |
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The current going is good, good to firm in places, but if tomorrows rain is a sheavy as they suggest then I accept it won't be good to firm now - never actually said it would be just put it up for discussion based on the long range weather forecasts and last years scenario.
But I still think it's just as likely to be good (maybe with good-to-soft in places) than anything else, so even at 2/1 or so 'good' still looks a fair bet to me. At 7/2 it was a no brainer imo. The forecasts I've seen suggets very little if any rain from Monday onwards (though that can change) so he will definitely still need to water if he dosen't wamnt it on the fast side of good. |
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it WILL BE Good to Soft. That is the course policy and I am sure they will achieve it with ease..
 It may well end up being good-to-soft but despite everything I have written about last year (facts not my opinion) how can you categorically state it WILL BE good to soft - the policy was exactly the same last year and the odds of good-to-soft were something like 1/6 at this time, yet they didn't achieve it. This year the going is currently much firmer with 10 days to go (that may change tomorrow), and last year they also had some rain forecast in the week leading up to the meeting and it didn't materialise, the end result being officially good ground. To keep insisting that just because the policy is for 'good-to-soft' that is what it will be is simply ignoring the facts. If you are so absolutley certain it won't be anything else lay me 100/1 on good  |
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Turfttrax now has thenCheltenahm map up.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=Cheltenham Forecast says rain at weekend, cooler midweek, then dry and mild  Will be very interesting to look on Monday and see how tomorrows rain affects the course. |
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It's been raining heavily here on course since early this morning. Ruined my walk over Cleeve Hill!
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It could well be good to firm .
But he wont give out gd to firm as official to start the meet. What the ground actually is & what he gives out official aint necessarily going to be the same 10-15 mill expected today to ease his problem |
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News update from Gloucestershire. No longer gentle rain now absolutely p1ssing down. From one extreme to another. Puddles at Prestbury Park.
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Just beginning to clear now. Must have been raining for near 7 hours.
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P1ssing down again
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anyone got news on the going? has it continued to rain? turftrax?
cheers for any updates |
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Dry and cold overnight jud. Sunny and breezy today. Next rain forecast Wednesday.
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Two of the most reliable long range weather forecast sites show similar models indicating little or no rain from mid week to at the least the middle of next week. The models can change of course but they tend to fairly accurate up to a week in advance. The taps will be turned on again if thats the case.
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Which sites do you use Shtmlf ? Long range forecasts (week to 2 weeks ahead) are important for my business. Cheers.
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I'm not great at pasting links, so I'll write the names. Theweatheroutlook.com , click data, then outlook models. ECMWF or GEM give forecasts up to 240 hours ahead. The other site is a handy quick visual one, Wetterzentrale.com, its in German, but on the home page to the right is a 9-tage ( 9 day ) GFS set of picture models, which show at the moment, high pressure near the UK for most of the next nine days.
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Cheers
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thanks lovely people
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This is the link to see he turftrax map
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=Cheltenham Gonna be a close call between good and good to soft - dry today and tomorrow which should see it dry back to good / good to soft in places., With some light rain forecast Wednesday and then showery on Saturday/Sunday/Monday it may mean he holds off watering. If like last year the showers fail to materialise (and some weather sites are not suggesting showers) then I can see a similar scenario to last year. Heres a link to the official metoffice 5 day forecast for Cheltenham: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/cheltenham_forecast_weather.html |
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Local radio forecast from the Bristol weather centre this morning advises that after some rain overniht tonight and into tomorrow morning, high pressure will build from the south for the weekend and into next week. Get to hoses out Simon!
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http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=Cheltenham
Despite Sundays rain it has already dried out to good good to firm in places . A little rain due on Wednesday then dry and mild (sunny and warm from Sunday).Maybe some of you might owe me a bloody great apology come Tuesday and at the very least should have given my analysis the respect it deserved.  |
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As far as I can see it's either good or good to soft, could be either so happy to be on good at longer odds, he'll need to put plenty of water on yet to achieve g/s. Could also be tricky for him to commit to that with an unsettled forecast over the weekend.
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Will be much clearer after we see how much rain they get tonight - could be a fair old drop according to some forecasts.
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There is no real rain to speak off in the weekend forecasts on any of the weather sites - after tomorrow it is dry all the way to the festival.
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8mm forcecast overnight earl/morn
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8mm should take it to the soft side of good so with watering that should be maintained with ease - perfect ground.
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You seem pretty confident of that MWS......you some kinda John Kettley character ?!?!?!
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More of a Cat Kubie man myself
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WOOOOFT !!!
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Looks like Cheltenham missed much of the rain today:
CHELTENHAM commenced watering on Wednesday to counteract drying conditions that have quickened the ground in recent days. Officials applied 17 millimetres to the chute in the middle of the Old and New courses and more will be added with the dry spell set to continue. Clerk of the course Simon Claisse said on Wednesday: "We did the chute today, putting down seventeen millimetres. We will continue watering round the Old and New courses on Thursday and Friday." The going on the Old and New courses is good, good to firm in places, while it is good to firm, good in places on the cross-country course. The forecast is for more dry weather with Claisse adding: "It is forecast to be dry, bright and sunny and getting warmer." How the hell good-to-soft is still odds on I will never know. |
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It shouldn't be unc. No more meaningful rain forecast before next Tuesday....might be some drizzle over the weekend apparently but hardly measureable. Whilst the course has its own reservoir, it is a finite resource....about 6 million gallons I believe and a third of that must already have been used.
Claisse can call it what he likes. The race times will tell us that it is no slower than good ground. |
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After all the watering last week and the rain on Sunday, the Monday description was still 'good in places'
It would appear that for 'soft' to appear in the going it is going to need significant rain on that particular day - Cheltenham just drains too fast now |
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Said in another fred yesterday, he will have to divert the river Severn to get this actually G2S come Tuesday. However, this would not be the first time the ground has dried out significantly between the start and finish of the first race...
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Yes Sunshine Cheltenham has a remarkable drying spell from annoucement of official ground around noon & before 2nd race commences.
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Deffo geoff, it could be one of life's great mysteries if the reason was not so patently obvious..
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Latest update from Claisse
Cheltenham continue to water 9th March 2012 Cheltenham will continue to water the chase and hurdles courses ahead of the opening day of the Festival on Tuesday. With no rain in sight ahead of the four-day bonanza, officials are keeping the taps turned on to ensure the best possible conditions for jump racing's biggest meeting of the year. "The going on the chase and hurdles courses is now good, good to soft in places, while on the cross-country course it is good to firm," said clerk of the course Simon Claisse. |
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IF the offical dec is not Good to Soft come Tuesday I'll be surprised, but I'll be even more surprised if immediately after the 1st race it's not changed to full Good. Quite why we go through the saga year in year out on here I don't know, Good to Soft would probably still be declared if it hadn't rained since last March!
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Yep....the good to soft in places are 3 patches down the far side which are about 10 yards in diameter!
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So a few showers & it'll be officially soft?
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