Cheltenham Festival
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The current going at Cheltenham is 'good, good-to-firm in places', despite them watering last week. The weather forecasts suggest barely any rain between now and the start of the meeting, so even with watering Simon Claisse will do well just to maintain it where it is, espeically with the track draining so well.
We all know that they aim for 'good-to-soft' in order to make it safer and appease the animal rights lobby, and the word 'firm' in the description will be seen as a major 'faux-pas' but given the extraordinary dry conditions this last year it may be beyond them. Even last year the going was 'good' on the first day and they hadn't had such a long period of dry weather.
Last year 3 weeks before the meeting the going was 'soft, good-to-soft in places' so a decent position for them to be in, and then there was no rain upto the festival so he watered in the 7-10 days before the start. Even the day before it was 'good-to-soft, good in places' yet on the first day it had dried up to 'good, good-to-soft in places'. So the watering didn't soften the ground, it just stopped it drying out quite so quickly. So with his start point this year being virtually 'good-to-firm' is there anything he can do to prevent fast ground?
There is a video interview with Simon Claisse here where he dosen't try to claim otherwise:
http://www.skysports.com/video/inline/0,26691,12602_7538568,00.html
Obviously they will do everything they can to stop the word firm appearing, but if the weather forecasts are correct (and they may not be of course) I don't see anyway he can possibly have the word soft in the description, and with the turftrax maps meaning he can't just lie about what the ground is (2007
), maybe, just maybe, he will have no option but to call it 'good-to-firm, good in places', though I expect 'good', or 'good, good to firm' in places will be the call.
Good ground is 7/2 with PP and Good-To-Firm is 40/1 for anyone interested
We all know that they aim for 'good-to-soft' in order to make it safer and appease the animal rights lobby, and the word 'firm' in the description will be seen as a major 'faux-pas' but given the extraordinary dry conditions this last year it may be beyond them. Even last year the going was 'good' on the first day and they hadn't had such a long period of dry weather.
Last year 3 weeks before the meeting the going was 'soft, good-to-soft in places' so a decent position for them to be in, and then there was no rain upto the festival so he watered in the 7-10 days before the start. Even the day before it was 'good-to-soft, good in places' yet on the first day it had dried up to 'good, good-to-soft in places'. So the watering didn't soften the ground, it just stopped it drying out quite so quickly. So with his start point this year being virtually 'good-to-firm' is there anything he can do to prevent fast ground?
There is a video interview with Simon Claisse here where he dosen't try to claim otherwise:
http://www.skysports.com/video/inline/0,26691,12602_7538568,00.html
Obviously they will do everything they can to stop the word firm appearing, but if the weather forecasts are correct (and they may not be of course) I don't see anyway he can possibly have the word soft in the description, and with the turftrax maps meaning he can't just lie about what the ground is (2007
), maybe, just maybe, he will have no option but to call it 'good-to-firm, good in places', though I expect 'good', or 'good, good to firm' in places will be the call.Good ground is 7/2 with PP and Good-To-Firm is 40/1 for anyone interested
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Will water the sh1t outa it to be g/s on the tiesday anyway!
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*tuesday
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Didn't manage it last year from a much softer starting point?
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Will be loose on top (nap)
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the word soft will be used 1st day of the festival guaranteed...
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The cross country course which they can't water seems very likley to be GtF.
They will do everything humanly possible to avoid any firm in the going (description) as it will probably lead to mass withdrawals. It's too early to panic though. Any weather forecast beond 5 days is virtually meaningless. |
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Given the incredible forecast for the next week the ground staff are going to have a mighty difficult job and the chances of "soft" anywhere in the going for Tuesday look unlikely. Still don't think there will be firm in it either though.
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good to soft good in places, by the 3rd race it will be good ground lol
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If you watch the video he says that despite the watering that took place last week, the going, if the meeting were starting this week, would still be the same as it was before the watering started.
Watering to maintain the going is one thing, watering to change it (especially from 'good-to-firm', to 'good-to-soft') is quite another, and runs the risk of very false, patchy ground which may be more harmful than natural fast going.  |
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Everybody seems to forget last year - we all thought it was impossible, for all the politival and saftey reasons, for the going to be quicker than 'good-to-soft' (and even if it was quicker we assumed he would just lie about it and then change the description after the Champion Hurdle
). But in the end he had no choice but to change it to 'good, good-to-soft in places', so with that precedent set, unless he lies (which turftrax should make impossible) I don't see good-to-soft anywhere in the description. |
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Absolutely no chance of good to firm on Tuesday, 40/1 should be 400/1.
There will come a time when they water to achieve good to soft and it hoses down all week and the ground is barely raceable.... |
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Alleged maks a good point - the ground quickens up quite quickly anyway once they stop watering/start racing.
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PP now only 11/4 good, but 50/1 good-to-firm. Good-to-Soft is still 2/5.
From everything I have seen and read (with the caveat that the weather forecast may change nearer the meeting) I think the prices should currently be 1/2 good, 4/1 good-to-firm, 5/1 good-to-soft, 100/1 any other. Either I've got it terribly wrong (quite possible  ) or this is the old 'gift horse in the mouth' moment If it is 'good-to-soft' has anyone got a large cardboard box I can borrow from Tuesday 13th March  |
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strontium
26 Feb 12 12:24 Alleged maks a good point - the ground quickens up quite quickly anyway once they stop watering/start racing. Last year on the Monday it was 'good-to soft, good in places' when they stopped watering. A dry night and it was changed to 'good, good-to-soft in places on Tuesday morning. |
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Quite tempted to have a smallish bet on any other with PP that (I think) encompasses good to firm. OK, its still unlikely to happen, but I dont think it should be a 50/1 shot given the forecast, drainage speed and current going.
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However, since a policy was put in force by course officials to provide good-to-soft ground for the opening-day, the NH-bred horses have started to come out on top to the extent they filled the first four places last year following on from successive 1-2-3-4-5’s in 2009 and 2010 which is a big swing.
they will do all they can to have safe ground with the word soft in it on the opening day thats for sure |
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Maybe it's just me, because I've lived all my life on the Pennines, but I find the idea of betting on the weather both scary and stupefying...
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LOL. Was thinking much the same theives!
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Especially when they change the result 2 hours later.
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Betting on the going is definitely 'proper hardcore' and not for the faint herated.
You shandy boys had better stick to the safety of the antepost horses.  |
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Sarsaparilla for me ta.
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CHELTENHAM will begin watering again on Monday with another largely dry forecast for the week.
Watering last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday put down between 6-8mm and clerk of the course Simon Claisse reported the ground to be good, good to firm in places on Sunday afternoon. "The forecast is for it to remain predominately dry and getting warmer," he added. Claisse expects to addupto 12-15mm in the week to counteract the weather and maintain the ground description before turning up the watering in the last ten days if necessary. "We're aiming to start the festival with good to soft ground," he said. Cheltenham has recorded just over 3mm of rain in February, which compares to 40mm in the month last year. |
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Why does everyone get upset at the idea of soft ground? Personally id rather it be soft than good to firm because then the winter's form lines are more likely to stand up! No danger of anything improving 20lb on what they've done all season because the ground's dryer!
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People always go up in arms when Claisse says he's turning the taps on, given the lack of rain in Feb the ground would be firm everywhere without intervention.
They have no choice simple as that, but I am waiting for them to get it completely wrong one year, I only hope they never produce false/loose ground as that could be dangerous... |
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I agree horse, but in fairness Claisse is very good at his job imo. One of the 2 best CoCs around imo, along with Osgood at Newbury.
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The going on the first day will be good to soft, unless there's a deluge early the week of the festival, in which case it will be softer. The only way it will be good is if the watering system breaks. I don't agree with the policy, but the course have been very open about publicising it, and anyone who bets on good or faster is mad.
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It was good last year you imbecile when they ahd exactly the same policy
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they wont be any good to firm in the desription, 12 mm of rain forecast for the sunday/monday before festvial, make the ground perfect for racing, no chance of it been any firm as some idiots suggest
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Despite being 99% certain that like last year it will be officially good (maybe with good-to-soft patches) I have now bailed and closed my position - still make nearly £400 if it's good, and £15 if it's good to soft so no harm done
After failing to start last year on good-to-soft I find it hard to believe he can actually say they are realistically still aiming for 'good-to-soft' this year given the current ground and weather situation, but I'm not taking the chance as I can smell bulls**t in th air. |
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Time for a shandy
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I think you've got a case puncle. I hope the forecast is wrong, but, if it is correct, they'll surely struggle to get enough water down to get the ground to anything but good to firm. However, they won't dare use the word firm in the title on day one. It may be changed later on in the festival, but on the Tuesday they will call in good. If this happens, maybe there's a chance they will abandon the cross country and just run 26 races.
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I sincerely hope they can get enough water down and/or mother nature intervenes. There are some very justifiable reservations about either happening. Don't believe they water the cross country course at all and goodness knows how quick that might get. The one difference between fast ground now and that from 20 years ago is the quality of the turf. Superb covering of grass when once they had large patches with virtually no grass. This must help with cushioning for the chasers but it won't stop them going faster and the worrying consequences of nasty falls.
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I will reassess the going situation next weekend when the weather forecast right up to the start of the meeting is more concrete (like the ground might be
) and once turftrax puts up a going map I may go in heavily again.Always nice to be quids in before the racing gets started  |
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The XC races at Cheltenham are frequently run on good-to-firm. In Nov it was Firm, GtF in places and in December GtF, Firm in places. I don't think they'll abandon it - and it's not like they go fast!
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You will be pleased to know that it is raining in Cheltenham at the moment. Don't think it will amount to much but we should be grateful for small mercies.
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every little helps as they say
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http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/cheltenham/gl50-4/month/328267?view=table
NOT too MUCH rain forecast for the next week. |