Champion Hurdle winner??

And Binocular wins :-( lol, have backed the Zark myself , tbh I'd be looking simply to trade out to get a free bet if poss, I'm not a huge fan of the opinion that HF is totally unbeatable, I'm convinced if Zark is near it going up the hill it will battle well, not to mention Binocular whose performance when winning the CH IMHO is at least equal to HFs  win, it's run LTO also seems to confirm it is in excellent form. Free bet for me, take your value now IMHO .

It's a good point about Binocuar had talked myself out of him being a contender but after last performance he needs to be considered! Really do think Zarkandar is under rated as you said if he don't get outpaced as they turn for home I think he can battle it out with Binocular & HF. Just can't decide how to play it but appreciate your opinion.

Lay it off - that's the whole point of betfair!!

You've found yourself in the fortuntae position of backing well ante post and now is the time to take advantage and have a free ride. Also, 5yr olds have an horrific record in the CH!

The Fly wins oh yeah he does. but Zark and Binoc be behind for any mistakes.

think Zarkander looks more of a stayer its the Fly all the way.

I know there is a dedicated CH thread but anyways............. IMHO Zarkandar just might be a little bit special, for one so inexperienced it has shown glimpses of potential , it did something a little special by winning at Aintree after Cheltenham IMHO , AND again IMHO in the triumph and in the betfair once it hit the front there was only one winner, in addition in the betfair remember this was quite an ask fto, despite it's inexperience it won and for me won impressively, it certainly WILL improve and tbh HF at circa evens is no price, yes it will take a special 5yo to break the 5yo negative stat........is the Zark the one?, maybe :-), hell even Tom Segal in the weekender says the Zark is his favourite jumps horse atm, AND he was impressed by the manner of its win in the betfair, glad he's waking up to what I've been saying for months :-)

It didn't take an impressive 5yo to beat the 5yo stat, it took an experienced one (Katchit).  As far as I'm concerned there is no negative 5yo stat just a negative inexperienced horses stat.

I think the 2013 Champion might be excellent because of all the good 5 yos knocking around this season and a few decent novices coming through.

It didn't take an impressive 5yo to beat the 5yo stat, it took an experienced one (Katchit).  As far as I'm concerned there is no negative 5yo stat just a negative inexperienced horses stat.


Fair if moot point  ;-), katchit as a lone beacon of support for the experience theory can't be regarded as a definitive and objective example of proof positive, then again that's the nature of this puzzle , I've read your theory on this and you make a beguiling argument which I wouldn't disagree with, whatever this imperceptible effect is the Zark would need to overcome it, one facet it has that I feel sure will stand it in good stead is its battling qualities AND a very impressive gear right where it counts at the business end of a race, surely a big positive for Cheltenham

^are you Nick Luck in disguise?

Eastayrshire, yes it is moot on Zarkandar but far from moot when considering the race as a whole.  Minimum 15 starts under rules, any age in last 2 decades.  Only the exceptional Hardy Eustace with 15 starts, every other winner 17+.   Wish I'd worked it out 10 years ago and not 2 years ago...

I know the stats say he can't win but stats are there to be broken & the stats are based on previous 5yo and think we hae all seen Zarkandar is no ordinary 5yo & the form of last years triumph shows last years race was the best triumph for years! Think Zarkandar is a class above & could make a mockery of stats let's not forget Zarkandar is still unbeaten over hurdles & to win fto in betfair shows he is battled hardened & give serve it up 2 HF & Binocular. Think it has to be form over stats!!

The question is Nick, how good was that form? Zarkander ran to 160 ish which leaves him a stone to find with Hurricane Fly. he was sick after the race. Did that affect him on the Betfair? Will he get over it? Will he improve for the run? How much? Lots and lots of uncertainties.

Even if they were rated closely, i'd back the battle hardened champion over the near-novice.

*in the Betfair

still think triumph hurdle winners make better stayers than speedsters.the fly to have too many gears for me think Ruby thinks so too.

In Ruby we trust and he trusts the fly

The question is Nick, how good was that form? Zarkander ran to 160 ish which leaves him a stone to find with Hurricane Fly. he was sick after the race. Did that affect him on the Betfair? Will he get over it? Will he improve for the run? How much? Lots and lots of uncertainties.

Even if they were rated closely, i'd back the battle hardened champion over the near-novice.

Sadly for us Zark lovers this makes absolute sense and is difficult to rationally oppose, but yknow when you just get that feeling about a horse?.......lol , seriously tho strontiums appraisal is spot on, def worrying about the cough etc too.

I think Hurricane Fly will win

Yeah he probably does still have a stone to find with HF but firstly he was ill for the betfair which would have made a difference, secondly the went a slow untrue pace which didn't suit him as he can definitely stay further than 16f so a fast pace with the likes of overturn it will make it a bigger test of stamina & thirdly & most importantly fto after 10 months off he will definitely benefit massively from the run & can improve enough to challenge HF but the big question is will it be enough! I for one can't wait to find out!!

Sounds good Nick.  Or the effort of running first time out with a snotty nose might mean he bounces next time...

Here...no-one has mentioned the possibility of 'bounce' factor....just sayin'

LOLOL....beat me to it theives...well done

Imagine if he doen't make it at all.....then all the top 5yo's would be missing !!

As I've said on another thread I reckon they might benefit from it - another year older, stronger and more experienced, plus HF will be 9 in 2013.

True strontium but needless to say their presence would have added greatly to this years race

Yes. It's a possible silver lining, not a desirable outcome.

Food for thought.....What if Darlan had stood up in the Betfair and not impeded Get Me Out of Here. Possible that Zarkandar could have only finished third to a novice (who was only receiving 5lb). Couple that with the way he travelled, his illness and well... peoples expectations in the CH could be quite different....

lay it off its got no chance

The "bounce" factor is an oft used term which for me means nothing, it's an unprovable hypotheses that has caught some people's imagination, it kinda sounds plausible, sloppy thinking IMHO, it may exist it may not so factoring that in to any appraisals is folly imho.
As for Darlan, dear oh dear , it takes a HUGE leap of faith to extrapolate the outcome described , fgs no way can anyone tell how it would have fared,furthermore Zark beat GMOOH fair and square, which reminds me that it's beating of GMOOH confirms that it can beat shores we know has performed well at Cheltenham , there are way too many positive indicators about Zark for it to be misinterpretation IMHO , and don't be fooled by jockeys opinions, yes sometimes they know but here's the news,OFTEN they don't , if Zark  wins look over to the best mate stand and you'll see me cartwheeling down the steps :-), not that I have a huge amount on it £15 @ 11 to be precise.

Surely now its in to 7s you can Lay for a big freeroll?

I'd sit tight on the bet. Clearly you were happy to lose £100 otherwise you wouldn't of placed the bet, so don't let the fact you can trade off force your hand!

In general I agree with "dwm767" and it really depends on your financial position. If you want to trade for a freeroll then you can do that but you have clearly made a good bet so if you don't need the money let it ride.

which reminds me that it's beating of GMOOH confirms that it can beat shores we know has performed well at Cheltenham

eastayrshire????

Clearly Zarkandar is very talented, the question is can he win the CH. You talk about many positive indicators. In terms of winning this years CH there are many negatives;
1. 5yo's have a terrible record...fact
2. Whether you believe it or not it takes time for horses to get over a hard race after a long layoff...so I personally wouldn't dismiss this possibility out of hand especially as he has been unwell.
3. Looks like he possibly needs further and his chances are dependant on a fast run race.
4. Judged on previous performances he may well still get outpaced at a vital stage of the race.
5. Clearly not ideal to be coughing and on antibiotics so close to the big day.
6. Formwise must improve alot on what he has done to date IMO

If it was me I'd lay it back

which reminds me that it's beating of GMOOH confirms that it can beat shores we know has performed well at Cheltenham

Yes GMOOH has been narrowly beaten twice at Cheltenham , on your other points yes the 5yo stat is concerning however the Montjeu stat didn't stop HF , coughing is for sure a concern too, Im not so hot on your other points which surely comprise too much conjecture and guesswork to be factored in seriously.

I think laying off for a free bet is the smart call. Personally believe Hurricane Fly and Binocular have much better chances than Zark, for all that he is improving and exciting.

The other issue if you are considering laying off is that Zark has looked like being beaten in his last three races and traded at big odds in running. I very much doubt that he will tank through the Champion. His only chance is staying on past the speedier types, and I doubt he will be able to outstay the Fly (or have the speed to get to Binocular). Either way, he looks unlikely to trade shorter in the run unless he wins, so if you are thinking of covering your stake I'd suggest pre-race is the time to do it.

@easta If I understand you correctly I'm struggling to see how it is relevant that Zark has beaten a horse with Cheltenham form (GMOOH) at Newbury !

It is not conjecture or guesswork that Zark was outpaced during the Triumph and at Newbury. I would be very surprised if he could get away with this in a CH. Clearly he also has to improve alot on what he has done to date win a CH.

Yes I concede that Zark beating  GMOOH isn't a huge plus as regards winning the CH, GMOOH however so nearly won the SN and has proven tenacity, fair point tho tbh I was merely adding as many positives as I could :-), however as for Zark being outpaced , erm it won yeah?, AND IMHO if Zark is with HF going up the hill I'm thinking Zark will prevail, to be fair though it might not get near HF. One thing I AM sure of though is there is a huge amount of hyperbole surrounding HF, it may or may not be warranted, but you don't get an edge by following mainstream opinion, just sayin.........

whats your opinion on Binos chance eastayrshire?
I liked his last run but still unsure.
I,m also a Zark fan to be honest...

I know the winner its 100% HF.

^^^
thats the news the Mullins yard has been dreading and the layers wanted to hear.

Can't really understand the price on Rock On Ruby. Just caught on the line in last year's Neptune, beat Raya Star 8 lengths further than Zarkandar at Newbury conceding 1lb more then ran Binocular very close over a course and distance which favoured O'Neills horse over Christmas. On RPRs he's 10lbs ahead of Zarkandar and 7lbs below Hurricane Fly and 4lbs below Binocular. Also going forward verey rapidly and likely to be better still at Cheltenham on better ground.

Can't really understand the price on Rock On Ruby. Just caught on the line in last year's Neptune, beat Raya Star 8 lengths further than Zarkandar at Newbury conceding 1lb more then ran Binocular very close over a course and distance which favoured O'Neills horse over Christmas. On RPRs he's 10lbs ahead of Zarkandar and 7lbs below Hurricane Fly and 4lbs below Binocular. Also going forward verey rapidly and likely to be better still at Cheltenham on better ground.

You don't get an edge following mainstream opinion but for me there has to be sound reasons for taking on the fav and in this case I don't see them. It is indicative of HF's ability that he could beat Group 1 winners on the flat and I for one can't see him beaten

You oppose a fave when there are ****s in the armour, in this case there are none.

LAY IT OFF AT 7.0 AND TAKE A PORFIT
WIN OR LOSE TRADING LAD
#

You don't get an edge following mainstream opinion but for me there has to be sound reasons for taking on the fav and in this case I don't see them. It is indicative of HF's ability that he could beat Group 1 winners on the flat and I for one can't see him beaten


I cannot disagree with that and it did beat PC fair and square, HF is the most likely winner for sure but I do feel Zark is a decent threat , ROR too as mentioned  by poster above is a threat as is Binocular who in many good judges opinion put up a better performance than HF when winning two years ago.

Bino beat Khyber Kim and Zaynar in his CH. The fav got injured in the race and the second fav had an interrupted preparation. It was a very poor race for a CH

Or you could look at last year's in the same way and say that in HF's CH he beat 2 horses just out of novice class, who really needed further, after the most likely winner missed the race because of a badly timed course of antibiotics...

Im going to Fly(pardon the pun) against the general consensus here for a couple of reasons. im taking him on in a couple of ways, unless the ground turns soft and then ill play in the without market

1. Champion Hurdle 2011, hes quite hard ridden to win although he's travelled well into it. so on the bare bones of the form he's, 1.5l better than Peddlars and 8l in front of Thousand Stars.

Doesnt sound that scary, what price would peddlars be in this CH??

2. Forgetting Punchestown, where Bino was ridden from the front on seemingly one of his days under a cloud, HF has been beating up the same old faces again and again, he hasnt faced a on song Bino or indeed the up and coming ROR or Zarkander

The only bet ive had so far is ROR without HF, i dont think there is that great a depth in the race to keep him out of the 4 if he runs to his best and the better pace will suit him well.

if its good ground at Chelt id play a ROR/Bino rfc and both to beat Zark, not saying that Hurricane cant win, but if im right i want to be REALLY right.

Cue abuse and potential Egg on face, but if i was backing a 8/11 shot at the festival(which i probably never will) id want him to have beaten all his rivals

thieves thats a big assumption that he was the most likely winner ! Lets stick to what actually happened on the track. Are you for one minute trying to tell me that the field for last years CH was worse than in Bino's CH. In beating PC and OW he beat horses with any amount of potential. What I would concede is that the 2nd, 3rd and 4th possibly/probably need further but at least their subsequent performances have upheld the form unlike those in the 2010 CH.

zilzal I can understand people looking for alternatives on the grounds of price. I backed HF to win both CH's at 3/1 and am not fond of backing odds on, although I have previously made exceptions where HF is concerned. Your comments re HF beating the same horses was trotted out last year as a negative. Since he has come over from France he has shown a huge amount of class in beating everything put in front of him, you're hardly going to hold that against him are you?

I can see ROR running well but hope HF proves himself as champion again for those (for reasons beyond me) who weren't convinced first time around

Khyber Kim won a Grade 1 AFTER the 2010 CH, same G1 race as Oscar Whisky in fact but more convincingly.  I don't see that race as in any way weaker, whatever the excuses for some of the runners.  People also forget how progressive Zaynar was before he went funny.

HF should win and its hard to find a weakness when a horse just keeps on winning. The only one i can think of is that hes hard to train and Mullins always pulls him out of races that he doesn't think hes 100% for (anyone got any idea how many times thats happened?).
Not saying he would pull him out of the champion hurdle but it could be one of those rare times when you might see a 95% HF race.

1. Khyber Kim    
2. Muirhead
3. Zaynar
4. Won In The Dark
5. Petit Robin        
6. Quwetwo
F  Celestial Halo

Aintree Hurdle 2010 - another stellar line up.....well something had to win it. Well done thieves you found the only meaningful winner from the 2010 CH

Meant to say the only meaningful winner from the vanquished in 2010 CH

I can confirm that eastayrshire is NOT Nick Luck.

Nick Luck buys his round.

Lots of graded winners in the race markphisto, including a defending champion, was far from a weak renewal.  In the absence of a defending champion, HF had far less to beat and did it less impressively.   Out of interest, the official handicapper rated both performances equally at 172, while Racing Post ratings had Binocular's CH win as 1lb better than HF's.  Raceform timefigures say Bino was actually 8L faster than HF while Top Speed put the gap 14lbs in Bino's favour.  Not just me then...

Lots of graded winners in the race markphisto, including a defending champion, was far from a weak renewal.  In the absence of a defending champion, HF had far less to beat and did it less impressively.   Out of interest, the official handicapper rated both performances equally at 172, while Racing Post ratings had Binocular's CH win as 1lb better than HF's.  Raceform timefigures say Bino was actually 8L faster than HF while Top Speed put the gap 14lbs in Bino's favour.  Not just me then...

This is what I alluded to, I knew I had read this but cba tracking it down and posting it

I can confirm that eastayrshire is NOT Nick Luck.

Nick Luck buys his round.


Oh noes, I'm being dissed by a forum heavyweight , I can confirm that Johnn himself likes the Zark despite an HF position ]

So it'll be Binocular then?

I can confirm the rumours about 'eastayrshire' and his non-round buying form.... poor .

Oh....and it's 'The Fly' all the way in Ch hurdle....pity the value has long gone.

He's watching a replay of the Betfair with his breeks round his ankles as we type.....

am goin all in on the fly got 250 all in on him so far and will be putting every penny i have on him 2 weeks tomo the fly just blows the rivals away everytime even if the best form bino turns up its got no chance can anyone see the fly getting beat as easy in the fighting 5th from overturn they way bino did and no excuse he was fully wound up that day the flys one run this season not fully wound up and still laughs at them bigger cert than big bucks this year for me lets av it come fly with to the cash cow

I am a fan of Hurricane Fly and I think he’ll win. However, if you want to make a case against, consider the following.
Apart from his maiden, I think the fastest ground conditions he has encountered were at Punchestown in 2010 when Solwhit got the closest he ever got to him (apart from the time he beat him when Hurricane was injured), and in last year’s champion when he had a struggle against Peddlers.
His two runs after last year’s champion have both been on awful days weatherwise at Punchestown and Leopardstown, and they have been possibly his two best performances, along with when he slaughtered Go Native on soft at Leopardstown three months before Go Native won the Supreme. So if we get a nice day with ground similar to last year, we may not see Hurricane at his best.
I think that’s just straw-clutching though. His trainer’s comments suggest that the horse has matured this year, that he is less buzzy day-to-day, and therefore the hard-pulling which counted against him last year might not happen this year, and so he may show some improvement, even if the ground isn’t ideal.
Montjeu used to race with his head in the air a bit, and there was a suspicion that he was a bit soft. There is zero evidence of that with this horse. His neck always stretches out, not up, when it gets tough.
He’s bombproof (apart from the fact that he’s a horse and anything can go wrong).

@thieveslikeus - The 2011 CH has already produced double the amount of subsequent Grade 1 wins compared to the 2010 version. In any event I doubt the Mullins camp are too worried about Bino......seen as he hasn't even managed to beat Thousand Stars yet !

Markphisto, you know it isn't as simple as that.  Don't believe me believe the professional form and time raters.

Just a bit of banter. Lets hope they all get there and may the best horse win