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Cornas could be the one to turn the stats upside down. He has definate quality and will act on the ground. There are question marks over a lot of the principles in the betting on decent ground. This will be run at a good clip and with him being a hold up horse he may just swoop late as he has a turn of foot. Don't understand the jockey booking though, an amateur claiming 5lbs who has only ever ridden one horse for the stable before. There are plenty of good jocks at the track that have ridden many horses for the trainer before so that doesn't add up for me. Obviously he's vulnerable to a low weighted novice but the form of the novices looks pretty mediocre and his weight is kept to a good racing weight by Hendersons top weight. Could be a decent bet at big odds.
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Sorry I'm sure this has already been said but I haven't read every post.
Surely Henderson has given Kid Cassidy an amazing chance here. French Opera is there to allow it co carry a much lower weight and squeeze the bottom of the field a little. For me this revolves around Kumbeshwar and Kid Cassidy and there is very little between them on there last run. However Kumbeshwar is now 2lbs better off and in first time blinkers, at the odds it may be the better value. Given that Henderson will be wanting to win this particular race and the horse has McManus plot written all over it I have still backed Kid Cassidy and Kumbeshwar. I think KC could end up going off at a stupid price (sub 4/1). One thing that French Opera does do is allow last years winner Oiseau De Nuit in carrying a much handier 11-2lbs and I think this is not to be under estimated either. It won this really well last year and could spring a surprise a few. I have backed all three to different stakes. KC at 6/1 elsewhere and Kumbeshwar @18.5 and Oiseau De Nuit @24 on here. |