Pricewise Neptune Novices Hurdle Selection Next Week

I wouldn't be overly concerned, he's a big muscular horse Fingal Bay, it could be his races take a lot out of him. For me that pattern suggests he's best fresh, and he'll come to Cheltenham fresh.

As Stevo says it's a game of opinions Fingal is one of the most fascinating runners of the Festival for me. He blew me away at Chepstow.

Well on the Morning Line on Saturday he basically said Boston Bob was different gravy to Fingals Bay - but with the likelihood of good or faster going BB may be rerouted to the Albert Bartlett.

If that is the case could Mullins still run Make Your Mark (16/1) in the Neptune - he travelled like the best horse in the race against Boston Bob last time, and he only tired approaching the last in atrocious conditions.

Boston Bob is an absolute star, there's no doubting that and if he lines up against Fingal Bay i'll sh*t myself...BUT, I do think there's a trend in the racing media to get carried away with any decent horse Willie Mullins has; was it So Young this time last year the Irish called unbeatable in the race? It's besides the by anyway; I've heard the same that they think he's an out and out stayer and on good, good to soft ground they think he'll need every yard of the three mile trip! You take him out the race and I think the others in behind Fingal Bay have quite a lot to find. Yes a number of them have shown great promise but for all his little imperfections Fingal Bay is a course and distance winner, and has three Grade 2 & a Grade 1 victories to his name! You'll have to work very hard to suggest he's not the most likely winner, regardless of price...

dwm767
23 Feb 12 11:23
Fingal Bay is a course and distance winner, and has three Grade 2 & a Grade 1 victories to his name! You'll have to work very hard to suggest he's not the most likely winner, regardless of price...

Once NRNB comes in I'll be lumping on Make Your Mark and Simonsig at the best prices available. If I had to pick a Pricewsie selection now, then given the doubts about running plans on so many entries it would also be Monksland @ 14/1.

Simonsig!? Why!? What right has he got to reverse form with Fingal Bay?

I take your point on Make Your Mark if you believe it really was the ground that hampered him last time, but even so he was only beaten 9 lengths by Boston Bob - on what I've seen of both id suggest that's as good as he is!

Monksland will be the PW selection I completely agree.

Think it will be Monksland aswell. I fancy Fingal Bay to win the price but seeing as though Noel Meade confirmed pretty much straight after his last win MOnklands would run I shall avail myself to some of the 14/1.

*win the race

I'm balls deep on Fingal Bay, but I've covered my stake on Monksland & i'll do the same on Boston Bob should he line up for the race - outside of those three im not concerned though! Cue something to improve about 3 stone and romp in! Haha!

I think Simonsig can reverse the Sandown form. That was only his second ever hurdles run on ground tackier than ideal. Will have learnt a lot imo.  Layed off my stake on him though so only bet I have is Mono Man @ 65.

Tough race to call for me antepost. Doubts over 2 of the top 3 in the market doesn't help things. I'm happy to stick with my Mono Man bet until running plans are confirmed.

Hard to judge Boston Bobs run lto for me, because the ground was almost unraceable.  If he does run well in this I'll be all over Mt Benbulben in the AB. Gordon Elliot looked genuinley shocked that someone had managed to beat him

Boring I know, nothing like jumping on a bandwagon, but I would have thought at this stage it will be Monksland.

On FB at 8s though not 'balls deep'. Someone described his performance at Sandown 'decent' - to my mind clearly the best form for this race.

Monksland saver is a decent play however

I'd backed Fingal Bay before Sandown, didn't see the race on the day but was told Simonsig should have gone past him...not so sure I agree with that though, he travelled well but Fingal Bay finds more when something comes up along side, proved it twice now as he did the same in the Challow.

It'll be interesting to see what Richard Johnson does on him; can't imagine he'll want to hit the front too soon, but maybe he's better off keeping him involved in the business end of the race, sticking him in the lead before the run in and chance that nothing will get past?

dwm767- Your comments about the running plans for Simonsig and Boston Bob are they your hunches or genuine info?
Not been funny noticed your thread about Roudoudou Ville was spot on and just interested cheers

At Sandown they went no pace at all and given Simonsig is more speed than stamina I dont really see why he'll reverse the form with Fingal as he had a great opportunity to win that day. Unless he must have Good ground but I aint sure.

I'm not making excuses for Simonsig, he should have won and he didn't.

It's just that it was only his second hurdles run, and I think he will be entitled to come on a lot for that.  He'd only run in a mickey mouse race at Ascot the time before at 1/5, so that was just a glorified schooling seesion.

I'm not saying he'll beat Fingal Bay next time, but he has only got to improve a few lbs ahead of Fingal, and considering that there will be almost 4 months between their last race and if they meet in the Festival, I don't think it's beyond him to find less than 3 lengths.

Maybe completely wrong obviously, and Fingal may be top class (actually you can probably all ready call him top class).  Just not too convinced over Fingal - his bare form reads by far the best in the race, so I can see why people fancy him, but I've just got a nagging doubt he may get found out.

I'll be the first one to say I'm wrong if he wins, and good luck to all who have bets on him.

I'm not making excuses for Simonsig, he should have won and he didn't.

It's just that it was only his second hurdles run, and I think he will be entitled to come on a lot for that.  He'd only run in a mickey mouse race at Ascot the time before at 1/5, so that was just a glorified schooling seesion.

Actually I take that back.  It does look like I am making excuses

If Fingal makes it - see the other thread.

Yep it is dangerous to be to rigid in our opinions anyway WellChief. It is possibly Simonsig could reverse form IF the going is better, and we must pay respect to the fact NJH wants to take him on again...

Yeah just saw that Sint.

I think I'll go with the consensus on here and put a few quid on Monksland at 14 before his price goes.

All three above him could conceivably be withdrawn.  He definitely looks the value, especially with the Fingal drift.

Just managed to get the 14's on Monksland with Laddies, and they've took the market down within 5 minutes.

Same here Well got 14s and topped up on Boston Bob, fingers crossed for next few weeks sure to be few more fall bt wayside.

You've done a good job on Monksland - big market move here today. Maybe no longer a Pricewise price

Think you maybe right Stron when dust settles re Fingal Bay, cant see any way of him making it to post reading someones post re hamstring probs with horses.
Think he may still go Sous Les Cieux, who i really want to win Supreme as more open/weaker race. On in both next few weeks will be a bit worrying with more withdrawals etc.

It's not impossible that Mullins could run both Boston Bob and SLC in the Neptune. He has Midnight Game for the Supreme and has anyone considered the possibility of the the smooth travelling MYM for the Supreme also? He's left it in the entries and on form it's not any more strange than Simonsig running in the shorter race.

stormey1 - I know a few hacks & course commentators who pick me up bits off the record but nothing concrete as such.

Martin pipe, spoke to davy russell on twitter and he said make your mark will definitely not be going the 2 miler. Read into that what you will, does it suggest hes more of a stayer than speed like the pedigree suggests and it was just the ground that caught him out last time.

Martin pipe returns
24 Feb 12 06:58
has anyone considered the possibility of the the smooth travelling MYM for the Supreme also? He's left it in the entries and on form it's not any more strange than Simonsig running in the shorter race.


Totally agree MPR - Make Your Mark would be a live Supreme contender also - but with Mullins it's impossible to back until nrnb comes in.

Cotton Mill might be the PW pick

Good hope it is,as long as its not one my battalion of horses

cracking thread lads.

DWM, as others have said you are often bang on the money but just wondered about one point you made above - "I do think there's a trend in the racing media to get carried away with any decent horse Willie Mullins has; was it So Young this time last year the Irish called unbeatable in the race? "

To be fair to Boston Bob, he's achieved much more by this stage of his novice hurdling career than So Young had (just a Leop Xmas maiden hurdle IIRC) - plus WPM has himself revealed more than he usually would about what the horse has shown in his work and the level the trainer thinks he might perform at. I was at Leopardstown when BB won and was surprised at Mullins allowing himself to say (over the PA system in response to questions) what he thought of BB even before the race that day - got the impression he's struggling to keep the lid on what he thinks of this one. The media do indeed talk up Mullins inmates and they often go off at false prices, but BB is a genuine talent IMHO.

Is it the media or just punters that dont assess the races properly and get pulled in by wide-margin wins on testing ground?!

media definitely guilty of that imo,always take their opinions with a pinch of salt anyway.

I think Boston Bob's a star; it's just anything trained by Nicholls, Henderson or Mullins immediately becomes a media darling after a couple of eye catching performances.

On the point of the media, I read on Twitter the other day Matt Chapman reporting on a visit to the Mullins yard; he said...

"Speaking to Willie Mullins today left me with one, deep impression - Ireland's champion trainer is in total awe of Hurricane Fly. #special"

I mean, what!? It's hard to ignore statements like that, but how's Matt supposed to quantify it? Nonsense.

Boston Bob goes 3m. SLC, MYM Neptune. Done.

By the way, if anyone would like to lay me a bet on which race BB runs in I'm interested.

By the way, if anyone would like to lay me a bet on which race BB runs in I'm interested.

Oh and by the way PW will be - Monksland.

Gashboy,
are you in the know?

Boston Bob last matched at 10.5 on the AB market - if he runs in the race he will be 3/1 max so I can't believe anyone would lay that big a price unless they were fairly certain he wasn't running?

Correct Uncle or fickin stupid.

10.5 not the biggest price to lay imo. You just get idiot layers who think something is free money and will lay away without really thinking it through. BB could still quite easily go for the Albert imo, think people are just assuming he'll go Neptune now Final might not be running, we'll see shortly.

What price is BB NRNB for the Neptune?

7/2 your pick for the Neptune & Albert Bartlett.

From the Exeter preview evening;

Paul Nicholls: I was discussing running plans for Prospect Wells with Graham Wylie and he told me Boston Bob is likely to run here (Neptune)

Hope so bland

I went to a preview night last year where Nicholls said Sam Winner would run in the Supreme...

I went to a preview night last year where Nicholls said Sam Winner would run in the Supreme...

NaNaNa Nineteen!

Really disappointing to see quite a few books still with Fingal Bay in, not 'with a run'.

Clearly will be a punter's fault but at the same time looks like exploitation to me

..

think he will put up sous le cieux myself only value left in the race imo

Will be interesting to find out whether Tom knows what WM intends to run in this....

It's Batonnier.

that slow boat surely not...the glue pot would of been hit for sure if he puts that up...

Evening Eric. You know that boat you're rowing in? I will row it across the Atlantic using Lennox Lewis's ears as oars if I'm wrong. Is that ok to say? Good :)

ah??

Sorry fella I'm on planet Stella at the moment, I was referring to your picture of you tearing up the water. I'm pretty sure that's it's Batonnier, that's the thrust of my post.

that is the greatest tennis player to ever grace the tennis court just relaxing before winning yet another major...and thus followers like me, loads more cash...fair play on batonnier awful pick if he goes for him imvho...

oi oi harry some nice match ups this week in dubai including a semi between our two boys lovely just what I need

distraction

ye nole should need it after the lay off judo...but glad he played well in the first match back...needed the break and glad he has had a nice long break just the ticket pal... lets hope the progression continues now, big year for him...and me punting him

looks like you are right pipey....deary me...

Morning Harry. He's picked some odd uns this year alright!

morning...in the right ups what does mullins say about sous le cieux target?? was ted walsh right about supreme or just making it up like he does??

Typical Mullins, he's decided nowt about anything. He doesn't even know if he's going to have eggs for breakfast yet.
All of the trainers are waiting to see what's entered where. Thank God for people like Nicholls, otherwise the other trainers would be playing around until the last minute.
Anyone remember that Runanround game where a bunch of kids chose one of three answers to a question and stood in front of their chosen answer. Then a bloke said you've go three seconds to run around and half of them jumped ship to a different answer? Tha, in a nutshell, is the process Irish trainers use at the festival :)

Very good Pipey

Ironic that someone with forum name "Martin Pipe" complains about Irish trainers that won't tell what day it is tomorrow let alone Cheltenham plans.

Willie Mullins is a c0ck. Waste of time interviewing him. If Boston Bob runs in Neptune - which I think he will - there is no chance Sous Les Cieux runs.

The Pricewise pick Batonnier aint that good. 1 from 4 over hurdles? 2 from 9 all in? Pumped 7l 2 starts ago? Beaten in a class 4 before that? not for me thanks

Sous Les Cieux hopefully Supreme,but why not run against each other hope not for ante-post but different owners.
Henderson ran 3 in Supreme last year.

As a post script to this particular thread perhaps, interesting to read the article in that says he thought his pick was going to be Monksland until the price shrank - power to the forum I say

I would agree with that roobuck Batonnier come in 2-3 points whereas Monksland shrank 5 points.

on a line of form through lyreen legend monksland has quiet a bit to find to trouble bb. i have to agree with you ballydoyle on batonnier also hard to see him good enough.

Batonnier is a nice horse and is improving but it is impossible to see how he can beat Simonsig on a line through Barbatos.

Yes Roobuck Monksland did stadn out at 14/1 as previously discussed. Lucky we all backed him before the news on Fingal Bay broke.

Noel Meade has today reported him on course and working well!

Boston Bob (3) , Simonsig (3) , Monksland (13/2) , Batonnier (8) , Sous Les Cieux (10) , Make Your Mark (16) , Benefficient (25) , Cotton Mill (25) , Felix Yonger (25) , Molotof (25) , Mount Benbulben (25) , Aland Islands (33) , Ballyrock (33) , Its A Gimme (33) , Mono Man (33) , Nelsons Bridge (33) , Prospect Wells (33) , Sword Of Destiny (33) , Vesper Bell (33) , Lord Windermere (40)  - Others  40 or more


NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NEPTUNE HURDLE and what was said......

Paul Nicholls - I was discussing running plans for Prospect Wells with Graham Wylie and he told me Boston Bob is likely to run here. Doesn't have any runners, not spoken to Ruby but feels Boston Bob will take all the beating & best form in the race.

Philip Hobbs - He has pulled a hamstring and needs a few days easy. He is not out of the race but more than a week off and it’s a problem. It’s 50-50.

Paul Jones - I have a lot of respect for the Fingal Bay-Simonsig Sandown form but I rate Boston Bob even a notch up from that giving 10lbs in heavy ground to class horses last time and I hope they run here and think they might as Mullins and Wylie both like the race and it is more prestigious than the Albert Bartlett. I strongly fancy Boston Bob to win whichever race he runs in. Paul Jones thought Boston Bob had the soundest chance, indeed had the best novice hurdle form at the meeting. Also didn’t think Simonsig would win this if running

Charlie Longsdon - We’ve got Cross Of Honour for this. He’s rated 126. If he was 130 he would have gone for the Coral Cup which would have been ideal but I doubt he would get in off 126. We need to a 140+ horse for this. Dawn Commander will run either here or the Albert Bartlett.

Andrew Tinkler - This is Simonsig’s other option but I would personally like to see him in the Supreme as think he is a real two-miler.

Kevan Minter - Even if Fingal Bay does run I would be worried about the form of the Hobbs yard. Boston Bob will start favourite if he runs here or the Albert Bartlett.

Andrew King thought it was between Fingal bay and Boston Bob

Henry de Bromhead - Monksland

Tanya Stephenson - Battonier/Boston bob if he runs. She loves Battonier. Reeled in Broadbackbob looked strong coming up the hill.

Davy Russell - Boston Bob wont run and if he does wont win this. Make your mark not good enough. Mount Benbulben will win if he runs in this

Noel O’Brien - Boston bob

Alice Plunkett - Simonsig likely fav. Trainer feels he's a proper champion of the future. He stays but has exceptional speed.

Joe Tizzard - Possibly runs Ohio Gold but ground gone against him but not without an e/w chance.

David Pipe - Has a couple of entries Boston Bob the horse for him.

Paddy Power - Boston Bob best novice in Ireland. Top class form feels he will run in Neptune now Fingal Bay come out. Thinks he's very very good. Boston Bob and Monksland each way.

Donn McClean - Monksland.

Ruby Walsh - Boston Bob prefers better ground. Unsure about Sous Le Cieux. Whatever Willies Mullins runs has a chance.

Jessica Harrington – Simonsig

Both Ted Walsh jr and Tony Martin were suitably reverential about Boston Bob

Damien McElroy - edged more towards Monksland and all agreed they would be surprised if this doesn’t go the Irish trainers’ way.

Tony Martin thought Sous Le Sioux would beat his Benefficient if they met again, implying that he won’t get that soft lead here.

Kevin O’Ryan believes Boston Bob will go to the Albert Bartlett. Nobody impressed with Simonsig  whose sketchy jumping will see him struggle.

Winning trainer Noel Meade said afterwards: "That went exactly to plan. I thought he'd win to be honest as he is very good.
"He was involved in a serious piece of work at Fairyhouse where he finished second to Bog Warrior  and I think he had a bit up his sleeve.

"He has done everything right since and jumps well. He is good enough for Cheltenham and he will go there for the two and a half mile hurdle (Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle).

"I'm not sure whether he will run before that as he is easy to get fit.
"He worked well on Tuesday morning on soft ground and showed plenty of boot today and should handle better ground.
"He had earplugs in as he used to be very nervous but he has relaxed and never turned a hair today."


ANY MORE recent comments from MEADE on MONKSLAND ?

No but that is well old?

Yep said he's a bigger certainty than Sweet Wake and has more bottle than Harchibald. GET ON!

TBF my nap of meeting and think will go off fav...

Slap wont be going off Fav mate 2 chances slim and none, but good luck with bet had little saver while back at 14s, imo if Boston Bob dont show wide open?

2:05    BARING BINGHAM HUR     2m 5f    34 planning to go to post

Looks like Sous Les Cieux maybe turning up in this re market moves this week.

Judorick, re question on another post Sous Les Cieux has won over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse in November.

Simonsig (5/2) , Boston Bob (11/4) , Monksland (6) , Sous Les Cieux (7) , Batonnier (8) , Make Your Mark (10) , Cotton Mill (16) , Benefficient (25) , Felix Yonger (25) , Mount Benbulben (25) , Nelsons Bridge (33) , Sword Of Destiny (33) , Simeon (40) , Knight Pass (50) , Marasonnien (50) , Poole Master (50) , Secret Edge (50) , Theatre Guide (50) , Aikideau (66) , Close House (66)  - Others  66 or more

“Midnight Game, Simenon and Allure of Illusion will probably be my three runners in the Supreme Novice Hurdle while Mark Your Mark and Sous Les Cieux will run in the Neptune Novices" - Mullins.

The thing that strikes me about the betting for this race is that SLC is 6/1 and Benefficient is 20s - okay Ruby didn't give SLC the best ride and he got an easy lead but in what looks a very poor race this year, I think that's a great e/w price.

Main bet now is Monksland after Fingal Bay NR

agree a tad on that roobuck benefficent is very over priced here

wont get a soft lead Harry this time

denis istomin has just done me a favour by taking out Ferrer Harry, HE now plays Del Boy instead of DF (del boy won earlier)

come on Noel Meade, bring home the bacon!

oh yes Monksland! yes I'm on that sint

nice judo...the master is on tomorrow so will watch that... what time is he on? do you know the british time?

agree about beneficient but open race this and your getting 25's to find out...not playing myself but big price...trainer messed up not entering it in the supreme imo

will check schedule brb - might not be up yet

good luck Judo and fellow Monkslanders!. Meade deserves a change of luck.

not there yet but you can check it here

http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/Schedules/Live-OOP.aspx?EventId=0404

are you boys not worried the fact monksland hasn't prepped for this? with his lack of fluency as well even more of a reason he should of prepped? just a thought and he is 6's, ground also an unknown...not sure how to play this myself very tight race...

im on at 14's Harry and I suspect lots of other people are aswell, and possibly bigger. A prep would have been nice but trainer decided to put him away.Sometimes it works, sometimes it dont.

i have a bit of 25's on him myself but am not confident sint as i'm not with sous le cieux who i have at 14's...lots of questions to answer to be honest

Have small punts on Monksland, batonnier & SLC all in the 12/13 range but have a good feeling about Cotton mill in this have 27's & would be the best winner by far for me, fancy SLC as the likely winner but hoping for a big run from CM may be my pocket talking but we'll see.  GL all.

aint confident either harry, just hope he prevails

fair play sint...we have a price edge but difficult race this imo

So cinders wins the big novice prize today... only ever been beaten over hurdles once ... by broadbackbob... who has only ever been beaten once himself over hurdles... by... BATONNIER...

Those the facts from the form book. Say no more.

Yes but Bationnier was easily beaten by barbatos, who in turn was well behind Fingal Bay and SimonSig at Sandown.