Pricewise Neptune Novices Hurdle Selection Next Week

There is simply only one possible selection. Monksland at 14-1. I agree ous is tempting at 16-1 but I don't think his trainer has ruled out the Supreme for this one yet (partly as he would like to run Boston Bob in the Neptune and keep them apart I suspect). Fingal too short for him, Simonsig not certain to line up, Batonnier not good enough (I think BBB got injured in the Cheltenham race) although 16-1 is a fair enough price.

There's plenty of slack in this market, maybe Mono Man will burst onto the scene before Tuesday with a tidy win? But at the moment it would have to be Monksland for Tom.

From what I've heard Boston Bob is more likely to run in the Albert Bartlett. Simonsig will go for the Supreme, so from an ante post angle the value for me lies with four horses; Fingal Bay - take the above mentioned pair out the race & he's a 5/2 shot, Monksland, Sous Les Cieux & Batonnier - realistically in my opinion, these are the only horses with the ability to win. With doubt surrounding which race Sous Les Cieux win contest, and questions surrounding the form of Batonnier's win at Cheltenham last time out, im fairly confident Monksland is the way he'll go.

That said, for me every horse is playing for 2nd place behind Fingal Bay - don't buy this argument about him needing it soft; his win at Chepstow on his debut over hurdles on good ground was fantastically impressive, and his run at Cheltenham the time after that proved he's got the pace to be competitive in the race before powering away at the finish. I won't pretend he was as impressive at Sandown or Newbury, but at Sandown he never looked in danger of losing the race really, and he looked tired and lacking a bit of fizz at Newbury in the Challow. It was the right decision to give him a break, he'll get to the Festival lovely and fresh, and I don't feel there's anything to suggest he can be beaten.

dwm agree with most of that, bad stat re Challow for Fingal Bay, also stable not exactly firing though had winner yesterday and think Colour Squadron would have won Friday at Newbury.

Stevo - not sure you can say Colour Squadron "would have won". I imagine it would have been close, but Montbazon was going better when CS fell.

Yep - I just think it was too early to be sure.

As Stevo says it's a game of opinions Fingal is one of the most fascinating runners of the Festival for me. He blew me away at Chepstow.

Boston Bob is an absolute star, there's no doubting that and if he lines up against Fingal Bay i'll sh*t myself...BUT, I do think there's a trend in the racing media to get carried away with any decent horse Willie Mullins has; was it So Young this time last year the Irish called unbeatable in the race? It's besides the by anyway; I've heard the same that they think he's an out and out stayer and on good, good to soft ground they think he'll need every yard of the three mile trip! You take him out the race and I think the others in behind Fingal Bay have quite a lot to find. Yes a number of them have shown great promise but for all his little imperfections Fingal Bay is a course and distance winner, and has three Grade 2 & a Grade 1 victories to his name! You'll have to work very hard to suggest he's not the most likely winner, regardless of price...

Simonsig!? Why!? What right has he got to reverse form with Fingal Bay?

I take your point on Make Your Mark if you believe it really was the ground that hampered him last time, but even so he was only beaten 9 lengths by Boston Bob - on what I've seen of both id suggest that's as good as he is!

Monksland will be the PW selection I completely agree.

*win the race

I think Simonsig can reverse the Sandown form. That was only his second ever hurdles run on ground tackier than ideal. Will have learnt a lot imo.  Layed off my stake on him though so only bet I have is Mono Man @ 65.

Tough race to call for me antepost. Doubts over 2 of the top 3 in the market doesn't help things. I'm happy to stick with my Mono Man bet until running plans are confirmed.

Hard to judge Boston Bobs run lto for me, because the ground was almost unraceable.  If he does run well in this I'll be all over Mt Benbulben in the AB. Gordon Elliot looked genuinley shocked that someone had managed to beat him

I'd backed Fingal Bay before Sandown, didn't see the race on the day but was told Simonsig should have gone past him...not so sure I agree with that though, he travelled well but Fingal Bay finds more when something comes up along side, proved it twice now as he did the same in the Challow.

It'll be interesting to see what Richard Johnson does on him; can't imagine he'll want to hit the front too soon, but maybe he's better off keeping him involved in the business end of the race, sticking him in the lead before the run in and chance that nothing will get past?

At Sandown they went no pace at all and given Simonsig is more speed than stamina I dont really see why he'll reverse the form with Fingal as he had a great opportunity to win that day. Unless he must have Good ground but I aint sure.

I'm not making excuses for Simonsig, he should have won and he didn't.

It's just that it was only his second hurdles run, and I think he will be entitled to come on a lot for that.  He'd only run in a mickey mouse race at Ascot the time before at 1/5, so that was just a glorified schooling seesion.

Actually I take that back.  It does look like I am making excuses

Yep it is dangerous to be to rigid in our opinions anyway WellChief. It is possibly Simonsig could reverse form IF the going is better, and we must pay respect to the fact NJH wants to take him on again...

Just managed to get the 14's on Monksland with Laddies, and they've took the market down within 5 minutes.

You've done a good job on Monksland - big market move here today. Maybe no longer a Pricewise price

It's not impossible that Mullins could run both Boston Bob and SLC in the Neptune. He has Midnight Game for the Supreme and has anyone considered the possibility of the the smooth travelling MYM for the Supreme also? He's left it in the entries and on form it's not any more strange than Simonsig running in the shorter race.

Martin pipe, spoke to davy russell on twitter and he said make your mark will definitely not be going the 2 miler. Read into that what you will, does it suggest hes more of a stayer than speed like the pedigree suggests and it was just the ground that caught him out last time.

Cotton Mill might be the PW pick

cracking thread lads.

DWM, as others have said you are often bang on the money but just wondered about one point you made above - "I do think there's a trend in the racing media to get carried away with any decent horse Willie Mullins has; was it So Young this time last year the Irish called unbeatable in the race? "

To be fair to Boston Bob, he's achieved much more by this stage of his novice hurdling career than So Young had (just a Leop Xmas maiden hurdle IIRC) - plus WPM has himself revealed more than he usually would about what the horse has shown in his work and the level the trainer thinks he might perform at. I was at Leopardstown when BB won and was surprised at Mullins allowing himself to say (over the PA system in response to questions) what he thought of BB even before the race that day - got the impression he's struggling to keep the lid on what he thinks of this one. The media do indeed talk up Mullins inmates and they often go off at false prices, but BB is a genuine talent IMHO.