Cheltenham Festival
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Does anyone have any views on what he will pick for the Ryanair? Looks the most competitive chase at the festival, with the first four all looking to have leading claims. My pick would be Great Endeavour at 14s, and I guess I'll back him tomorrow in case he does tip it.
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you could be right, I'm already on so it don't affect me
and even if it isn't GE you will still be on a great bet |
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Based on his previous AP selections, he will probably pick something that either misses the festival, runs in another race, or can't jump fences for all the vagina in China.
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He amy pick GE ( his kind of price ) and with more news re AR, that may also be a consideration.
But surely if the price is still there when he goes to press, the 7s with Laddie for Riverside Theatre will be too big to ignore? |
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Is it for tomorrow's edition or Wednesdays?
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Tommorow ryan
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Ok cheers mate.
Guess I better back Riverside Theatre at 7/1 with lads then, even though you're right, he's probably going to go for a double figured price horse. Still doesn't stop the books from going price rape crazy on most of the field  |
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I know but to be fair the price sort of leaps off the page and it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that the price will contract due to weight of money. They have obviously taken a stand against the horse due its fragility and its Arkle run - they have put the bait up and I also have taken it
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Bound to be Great Endeavour at 14/1 imo. Stands out like Omar on Viagra.
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Yeah, to be fair I can also understand why they want to take on RT.
If he made it to the race safe and sound, he would be my favourite, maybe not everyone else's - opinions, opinions. |
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I wouldn't know sint
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Would Magnanimity at 50/1 be aimed at the Ryanair? Ran a blinder in the RSA last year, probably needed the run first time out in the Lexus and seemed to be growing into the Hennessey Gold Cup last time out when a horrendous mistake put him right out of it. Really prefer to see it finish a race strongly before I could back it personally, although more of a concern would be the form of those RSA horses from last year in general.
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Have to agree. GE is far too big. Is Blazing Tempo a likely runner? Not that it matters....
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lol Roobuck.
Not sure Mary about Magnanimity. I couldn't see Segal tipping him but he might end up running. |
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Kalahari King is a big price if fit.
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Albertas Run at 11's for me.
Last year he only had the one run between Nov and the Festival (pulled up in January), so he doesn't need a lot of racing to get fit. (Spring horse anyway) His record speaks for itself, and with the forecast looking dry he'll probably get his good ground he needs. For thos one Great Endeavour at big prices, well done, but I can't have him at 10's for this when Albertas is the same price. Poquelin has been carrying lumps of weight around all year, and loves the track. Its only just over a year ago he beat Great Endeavour giving him well over a stone in weight. |
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I think it is going to be Great Endeavour. Tried to get on last night and made the classic mistake of asking for too big a price - got matched for a little at 15.5, but not nearly as much as I wanted and he's now trading at the 13.0 mark.
Just re-watched the Paddy Power and saw how easily he did it. Very fair excuses for subsequent defeats and none of the potential concerns regarding track or going suitability that come with Riverside or Rubi. Also had a read of the Paddy Power roll of honour and for a handicap it makes for truly stunning reading. The number of horses that have won it and gone on to win or run huge races in big Festival events is staggering. Great Endeavour only carried 10st 3lb mind, but he won it pulling a cart and a few others won it off weights that were not much higher. Am becoming very sweet on his chances and could easily see him going off at 7 or 8-1 on the day. Of the others, I do see the attraction in Riverside Theatre as I have the feeling he is probably a really, really good horse in the 170s. But with the potential fragility and course questions to answer, it will probably not be a Pricewise choice. I think he is the best in the race and if he handles the track fine it will take a good performance to stop him. Does anyone know what's happening with Realt Dubh? Was he supposed to have been out by now? |
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Yeah, the plan was an outing mid feb and then the Ryanair. Not sure why it hasnt been out.
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Think your right tom, Paddy Power only let me have £33 he he joke.
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Realt Dubh now going straight to the Festival.
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I'm gonna p1ss myself if he puts up GE for the Ryan Air
I posted it as my Festival NAP weeks ago on the Your Festival Nap thread |
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I have absolutely no doubt that he will pick Rubi Light. He has stated in the past how much he rates this horse, add to the fact that this horse was impressive at the weekend and that it palpably did not stay 3 miles in its previous run and finally it ran very well in the ryanair last year and is clearly a much better horse than last year. There you have it SIMPLES!!!
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no way is he going to tip the AP fav
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^ You'll see.
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no you will
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Looking at Oddschecker, I'd say its Great Endeavour.
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Done my own write up on the race. Hope it is of some interest. Fiendishly tough race to pin down!!
http://onetojump.blogspot.com/2012/02/ryanair-chase-early-look.html |
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Good write up IC, but I have to take issue with Rubi Light being a bridle ponse.
Judo has said on here there are question marks over his small runner Irish form, concerns over the ground, lack of course form etc, and I can accept all that - that's why he's 5/1 and not 2/1. But he is definitely not a bridle ponse. I suggest you look at the video from last year's Ryanair again. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTU1V4xVWxc (just skip it to 4 mins which is three from home) Turning for home he was 1 length behind Albertas Run, having made a bad mistake, and got checked on the turn by Albertas Run. Both of them were off the bridle the entire time, and he crossed the line 2 lengths down overall. Therefore from the turn for home to the line, he lost a total of 1 length to a tough and game horse like Albertas having lost loads of momentum twice! |
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for the life of me I can't understand why he is as short as 5/1. Got beat by Poquelin last year and that is nowhere near good enough. Has only run on soft since and now has the prospect of facing up to Riverside Theatre, Great Endeavour, Medermit, Sommersby, Noble Prince and Albertas Run - all of which want good ground and have at least as good if not better form. 5/1? pfft terrible price
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Nice write up. I must say that I'm finding this race a nightmare to pick the winner of. I like Great Endeavour and Albertas Run is looking an enticing price (though an 11 year old without a run in almost 5 months is not my usual idea of a grade one festival punt), but a good case could also be put up for all the five above them in the market. I was even tempted by Little Josh at a huge price after running well for a good distance of the Argento, but his subsequent appearance at Ascot has knocked him completely off my radar.
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I can't be bothered arguing again, but Rubi Light has never once been beaten by Poquelin
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Quote in the Racing post Analysis after his jog round the other day
Winning trainer Robbie Hennessy: "You couldn´t ask for more. Rubi Light is a stronger horse this season. That was impressive and goes for the Ryanair, although the ground wouldn´t want to be too quick." Will 5/1 look good when the going is really quick? Err.. no |
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sorry Kalahari King finished second - still nowhere near the level to win this renewal and Poquelin was fourth
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Got beat by Poquelin last year and that is nowhere near good enough
Is this the same Poquelin that beat your nap Great Endeavour giving over a stone? |
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we shall see that's all I can say
we could get very quick ground by the time this race is run and that will be enough |
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I've said that I accept your arguments re ground, course etc. All of that has to be factored in when you take a price.
All I'm saying is you can think he is the worst fav ever, but he isn't a bridle ponse. In his last 6 runs he's been off the bridle twice - once he didn't stay the 3 miles and the other he found loads in the Ryaniar. I've said on other threads its between him, Riverside and Albertas for me, and I don't think much will change that. |
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Judorick it wont be very quick ground mate,clerk of course will see to that!
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Is this the same Poquelin that beat your nap Great Endeavour giving over a stone?
Thats a fair point i would think.Poquelin never wins the race,not quiet good enough at the top level. I do think GE has improved since then,but that much?? not for me. And to be honest Pricewise tipping it makes no difference as far as im concerned. |
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looks like he has put up medermit by the look of oddschecker...
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Rubi Light is a top class horse. Lets not forget the beating he would have gave to Sizing Europe but for falling at the last fence. The only doubt with this horse is the ground, and perhaps a smaller doubt re his tendency to clip the top of a fence.
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