Cheltenham Festival
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Not a penny do I have on this horse, nor do I intend to invest any. I want to watch this fella at Cheltenham without any financial obligations on him. Alas though it looks as though he will be taking on my money.
The perceived competitive nature of the Ryanair is holding up his price, but the Ascot race looks top drawer and I’d expect him and Medermit to be filling the first two positions in the Ryanair…..I myself have dough on Medermit, but as its e/w I won’t begrudge Nesbitt and Co. if we get the race we want to see.
It baffles me somewhat why the likes of Laddies are prepared to go 7/1 on this horse. We have horses like Hurricane Fly at 5/6, Sizing Europe at 11/10 and Big Bucks at 4/7 and I’m sure that hindsight will tell us after the festival that these prices seriously overrated these horses. The evidence I’ve seen to date says RT should be much closer on price to any of those. The differential should be no greater than 2 to 3 points imo…..not 7.
As Hendo has only given RT the single championship race entry the price baffles even more. It’s also perplexing as to why RT wasn’t given a QMCC entry. If Henederson is worried about the competition in the Ryanair, then the QMCC looks a formality for a horse like RT. The decision is though, made.
The festival needs horses like Riverside Theatre…bring it on.
The perceived competitive nature of the Ryanair is holding up his price, but the Ascot race looks top drawer and I’d expect him and Medermit to be filling the first two positions in the Ryanair…..I myself have dough on Medermit, but as its e/w I won’t begrudge Nesbitt and Co. if we get the race we want to see.
It baffles me somewhat why the likes of Laddies are prepared to go 7/1 on this horse. We have horses like Hurricane Fly at 5/6, Sizing Europe at 11/10 and Big Bucks at 4/7 and I’m sure that hindsight will tell us after the festival that these prices seriously overrated these horses. The evidence I’ve seen to date says RT should be much closer on price to any of those. The differential should be no greater than 2 to 3 points imo…..not 7.
As Hendo has only given RT the single championship race entry the price baffles even more. It’s also perplexing as to why RT wasn’t given a QMCC entry. If Henederson is worried about the competition in the Ryanair, then the QMCC looks a formality for a horse like RT. The decision is though, made.
The festival needs horses like Riverside Theatre…bring it on.
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problem is it aint run at Ascot
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You like him then?
Fair enough you think he's a good horse. I was impressed myself yesterday. But your implication that he'd thrash Sizing Europe over 2 m is bizarre and in the Ryanair he has seventeen horses rated within 10 lbs of him on RPR. He's only ever won on a flat track, 7 of his 9 wins were right handed and he's never even placed at Cheltenham. 7/1 seems no more than fair to me. |
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PS, this "The festival needs horses like Riverside Theatre…bring it on" I 100% agree with.
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I remember Hendo being interviewed in his novice season when he won very takingly (may have been Newbury if memory serves me). He was asked about Cheltenham and he said that he didn't think the undulating nature of the track would play to his strengths.
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He got beaten there by Osana and Mad Max which suggests Hendo might be right.
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Chaps,
if you get a chance watch the RP archive "Closing Stages" of Sizing Europe's Arkle. It's worth stopping the footage immeadiately as it shows Riverside Theatre's race position with respect to the rest of the field. Plum last and looking well tailed off. Unfortunatley we lose track of what he did after that.....but he must have finished the final 3 furlongs like a rocket as he came home |
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^
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Surely the fact he got so far behind in the Arkle is an indicator that the ups and downs of Cheltenham upset his usual fantastic rhythm?
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He ought to though - he's a 2 1/2-3 mile horse who was running in a 2 m race.
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Lots of 2.5m chasers run well in the Arkle, they don't all get left behind then stay on through beaten horses.
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^^
< 9 lengths off SE. I'd give the horse the benefit of the doubt regards the undulations theory. ...hmm. original e-mails were trucated as I had a quotation mark in them....  |
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2 1/2 mile horse stay on after the race has finished.....not 1/2 a mile before that. RT has the engine to win a weak QMCC
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If it was run at Newbury I'd agree. He is the sort of horse that relies on buildling up momentum and just carrying on and on. Uphill and downhill sections break the pace up and stop that sort of horse from doing that. I should really shut up and watch him get beat at Cheltenham then mop up the prices for whichever Grade 1 race at Aintree they decide to win with him
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He could be a great bet for the Melling thieves.
Why give him the benefit of the doubt on the undulations theory when ALL his wins are at Kempton, Ascot and Newbury but he's been well beaten on his 3 runs at Punchestown and Cheltenham? |
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Major player in the gold Cup next year if they go down the 3mile route imo.
I'll have a bit on him after NRNB with his injury record. Last year after he won the same race as yesterday I took 10/1 for the Ryanair, but he never made it. I said on the noble prince thread that Riverside is the best 2m4f horse in the UK and Ireland and I still stand by that. |
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Wellchief, on a flat track, especially right handed, I think you could be right. (not saying he can't go left handed but he's achieved far less that way round 2 from 6, both minor races, compared with 7/10 right handed - which is an unusual profile).
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could be a right hasnded horse but much more likely he's a flat track horse stront. Few are both, maybe Desert Orchid? Out it another way, if Cheltenham got hit by a plague of locusts and they moved the Gold Cup to Nedwbury I'd definitely fancy him enough to back him in spite of stamina doubts.
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That's fair TLU, he's won a couple of times at Newbury and placed a couple more.
Dessie's record at Sandown suggests he wasn't a flat track horse though he definitely wanted it right-handed. |
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Take your point stront.
He does seem to prefer going right, but I think he jumps pretty straight and not out to the right like Captain Chris for example. Maybe I should have said that he has the potential to be the best, strictly you'd have to say Albertas is the best, which I accept. |
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DO wasn't quite as good at Sandown as at other RH tracks,remember the Kildimo defeat? His jumping of the railway fences helped him a lot too and Sandown doesn't have the impact undulations wise of Cheltenham or Punchestown. DO was better at AIntree than Cheltenham and I always put that down to it being a flat track. If I'm right he was double inconvenienced at Cheltenham which explains a lot.
Apart from the evidence in the book, the way RT gets into a rhythm and just keeps going and going suggests to me that he doesn't want that rhythm upsetting by hills. |
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people often think the only attribute you need for Cheltenham is to get up the hill but that is far from it
you need tactical speed, the ability to stand off and also to be quite nimble as there are some sharp turns and undulations - this is what makes it such a demanding track and it is why proven course form is so important in races like the Paddy Power, the December Gold Cup and the Festival we will find out in the Ryan Air whether Riverside Theatre handles it well because he has all the engine he needs and I am not taking the Arkle he ran in as evidence that he doesn't go round there |
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Riverside Theatre vs Master Minded in the Melling Chase on good ground with the sun on their back would be one hell of a race.
Shame it will never happen though (well you never know, slim chance maybe) Agree that you can't take his Arkle run too literally. No real evidence that he doesn't act around Cheltenham, its just he's been campaigned at other courses. If the 7/1 is still around when NRNB kicks in I'll get involved. Would love to see him have a Gold Cup campaign next year. |
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WC - I am a fan too and think the CGC is well within his compass (though he'd have to step up again, obviously).
I do not think it is clear at all he prefers to go right handed or cannot handle an undulating track (though both may turn out tp be true). We have contrasting evidence regarding his 2 most questionable chase runs - Cheltenham (left handed) and Ireland (right handed) both undulating tracks but also both over 2. I put his festival run down to him being a stayer running over the wrong trip (he was behind as soon as the tapes went up - I remember it well, having big prices for him to win the race before he made his chase debut at Newbury). At Punchestown, where he took the worst fall I can remember, he was again being left behind over an inadequate trip. I would only reiterate the points I made about the horse last yr that for me he is a stayer and this accounts for those 2 runs. His run against Copper Bleu was remarkable and he shaped badly like a stayer. He was the same at Kempton appearing in brief trouble turning in. A Aintree he appeared a little one paced. He has plenty of good evidence left handed and appears to have improved since being stepped up. His best run -arguably- was over his furthest test. He has gears and class and travels and is a major Ryanair player. Maybe he will not handle the track but I am not unduly concerned. He is a horse who finds for pressure so I can see him running up the hill. |
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anybody remember how far rt was beat in the king george behind kauto star? surely that equates to top class form and would think hes improved alot since then and entitled to improve again perhaps. i rate him as a real decent bet even with the track worries
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Was well beaten second behind Long Run last year - only run in KG I think
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12L - by Long Run not Kauto Star
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cheers, still reasonable form tho?
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There is a chance he would be more favoured by the more galloping track on which the Ryanair is run than the Arkle course. My big question is whether Saturday was the aim or whether Hendo really believes he has what it takes and had him 95% with a view to him being cherry ripe for the big one?
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Amazed RT was not entered in the Gold Cup.
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Finians was what do trainers know?
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The Ryanair looks such an open race this year and still think Albertas Run is a good e/w play.
However it was refreshing to see a bookmaker have an opinion about a horse and when Laddies went 7s about RT, they were laying the horse due its known fragility and that run in the Arkle. I think that RT is the best horse in the race and so was 7s a good enough price to counter the negatives expressed here? For me yes it was |
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agree he is a gold cup horse, shame he isn't running in it. the ryanair is boring.
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How people can be so sure he don't like Cheltenham baffles me, he has run there once and actually ran a creditable 5th to sizing Europe (a 2 mile and Cheltenham specialist).
Ok he was never travelling that day and was last 2 out but he ran on like a train to finish 5th, now to me that has nothing to do with not liking cheltenhsm but more to the fact that he was outpaced and clearly wanted further the way he stayed on. Henderson steps him up in trip between 2m 5f - 3m and look what happens. Form figures read 1st 2nd(long run creditable defeat) 1st 1st. Come on people use your brains it's the trip not the course and 6/1 I'm willing to take a massive punt on him. This horse is pure class and will only come on for his run the other day. There is better to come in Ryanair . Trust . Strontium u mention Cheltenham and punches town not bad form 3rd behind hurricane fly over 2 miles hey? |
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I mention Punchestown because it's a lot like Cheltenham.
You can look at that as good form if you like, but it was novice hurdle form. In that race has also got beaten by Kempes. In his other race at Punchestown (a chase) he was struggling against some pretty ordinary horses when he fell. You could be right he'll handle the track. But 9 wins from 13 on flat tracks (+ a second in the King George) and 0/3 from 3 on undulating traacks suggests to me he might prefer at flat track. What you do with your money is up to you, what I do with mine is not. |
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My theory is that (and I may be making excuses here) his runs on undulating tracks have been over too short a trip. He got at Liverpool (flat as a pancake) over 2 and at Newbury over 2 and both times looked like a step up would help. As I say above, the evidence is mixed. It has to be doubt, but maybe he did have legit excuses.
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Can see where your coming from. My point is that it's more to do with distance than the track for me a horse who can split long run and kauto has got to be good.
If he was fitter enough for king George this year and managed to split long run and kauto as he had previously what price would be on offer for gold cup? And that's the gold cup not the weaker Ryanair. I would say around 5/1 would fair, he is a point better off in a weaker Ryanair. Get on people Ryanair is riversides. |
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But that's how this works isn't it RC? We all pick the variables we think are most important when assessing a horse's chances and its price. I'm certainly not saying it can't win at Cheltenham. I'm not even saying it won't win. I'm saying 6-7/1 is too short for me to back it given my doubts about it going left handed and going on an undulating track. If it were 50/1 I clearly would back it as he's a very classy animal in the right conditions. The evidence is mixed - and limited - so one has to determine what the "right" price is for the horse.
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Absolutely Strong, I agree. Virtually every race has a similar, legit argument.
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Very good last post strontium. Do you have a pick for the race out of interest?
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