Binocular?

it's because Grandouet was going to run in the Kingwell but has had a "slight setback". Bno was going to gallop at Newbury this afternoon before that.

Yeh just read that. Cheers Stron

IT ABSOLUTELY SHAT UP!!

Was there and FOOLISHLY believed all the BS about not being prepped for the race. Ground was tacky and thought CH might cause him problems from the front - actually did CH EW at 10/3 before it was backed in.

5/6 briefly available on the favourite was a gift horse gone begging - it never came off the bridle, MCCoy didn't touch him and he won at will (who incidentally looked crocked to shyte and whose shoulder was hanging so he must be one fxxk of a brave man and the racecourse doctor must've had a bottle of sherry not to spot it)

Will it get Hurricane Fly off the bridle? don't know - but IMVHO it's NAILED ON FOR A PLACE!

SAME old story though - cannot back one of chemical nickie's until the day in case he forgets to XXXX XXX XXXXX!!  sorry - censor's been busy... but you know what I mean  ;O)P

Was very and as someone already heavily invested in The Fly (albeit at 7/4 and 6/4 NRNB) has made me think a little. Had a hideous dream about Ruby being hard at work approaching the last and AP unmoved.

Think I could play Binocular in the w/o market and IMHO, a straight Fly Binocular forecast could be one hell of a bet. Binocular will hit every single stat i can think of at this stage and all others have serious question marks be it being 5, not having won at cheltenham, not won last time out etc etc etc

Beating Celestial Halo is no where near good enough to win a CH,Certainly not while HF is around

Nice performance but beating Celestial and Starluck isn't going to have Mullins quaking in his boots. What will have interested them is the relative ease with which he did it. The big question is can we be sure that he will turn up in that form anyway irrespective of whether it will be good enough? Incidentally I've long been of the view that on goodish ground and with pace he is the only won capable of serving it up to HF.

Oh yeah, the bare form isnt good enough; it was the way he travelled which I found taking.

When he's been at his best he's been very slick at his hurdles and when not right he kind of lumps over them a bit. On Saturday he was very very good.

Don't see how he'll beat HF but I think he's the only credible opposition this year IMO

Was writing mine as you were writing yours - think we are going along the same lines

My view hasn't changed really. Someone asked me weeks ago what could beat HF and whilst I suggested it would be a very tall order I did say that I've never seen a jockey taking a pull going to two out in a champion hurdle as McCoy did that day. I think people massively underestimate just how good Bino is on a going day because he appears to have so many bad days. My personal view is that if you look at it in a particular way the jigsaw falls into place and he isn't as inconsistent as people make out. Whether he is good enough I don't know and I wouldn't be taking short prices about him but for me he would be worth an each way punt at around 9-1 if the first race suggests that the ground is riding close to good.

He wont be anywhere near 9/1 on the day - if he turns up can see him getting back in to be honest.

His OR that day was 163 whereas HF's was 167 and HF has arguably improved and Bino has maybe regressed a little but does show that on his day he's not a million miles away.

Either have him placed or w/o

I have never really called Binocular's performance right and am probably not going to be able to start now. I thought it was very taking how he accelerated away from Celestial Halo but CH is a limited horse who has always struggled to make an impact at the very top level.

I thought if anything the fly had improved on his re-appearance and he looked head and shoulders in front of anything last season. The champion hurdle looks at least on paper a stronger event than the Champion chase for instance and it's good for the race that Binocular is looking something back to his best. Only three weeks to find out now!

tipped up binocular months ago on here for champion hurdle, its going to get lumped on the day, GET ON NOW!!!

When i took the 16's e/w Bino i must admit it was sightly on the hopeful side that he would come back to his best for the festival.
Looking at that the other day suggests to me that he aint far from that.
He always runs well at the festival,and hes never faced HF at his best.
We could be in for a treat if THE Bino turns up.
Certainly hope he does!!

Re his race on Saturday, he could only beat the horses that showed up and he did that very takingly. Celestial Halo is not top class but he's very good, very consistent and has his preferred ground. It's reasonable to conclude Binocular ran to something like 170. He also hurlded like he did at his very best.

That puts him within spitting distance of HF and 5 lbs is nothing in a horse race - if one of the horses gets boxed in, something falls in front of it, one fluffs a jump....

What would worry me more about Binocular than his bare form is his inconsistency. Who knows if he'll give his running at Cheltenham, whereas we can be pretty sure HF will.

He had a breathing op after kempton and it looks to have worked. He loves the track and I think the 4/1 w/o Fly is the bet of the festival. Clear second best horse in the race.

I've him ew @10/1 & w/o Fly@ 5/1

Only danger to Fly in this race. Zark possibly too given he was sick winning the betfair hurdle. Still he'd have to be some 5yo to beat Fly.

looking like a better bet if Grandouet is not able to run. Would bring the number of potential 2nds to HF down by one. The Ante-post market on Grandouet has moved violently this afternoon.

What's the general consensus then here regarding the CH - do you feel he can honestly beat HF?

Ignore the 'which Binoocular turns up on the day' and assume he, and HF, are bang on the money.

I'm happy with my bet on HF at the odds but prior to Sat I just couldn't see him losing. Now i'm slightly less certain.

Still feel HF / Bino straight forecast could be a great bet. If Grandeout is out then it's only really Zarkandar and Oscars Well that have a claim - gut is that Binocular is better than both.

Really wish Binocular could have another run beforehand as we dont really know if it was the breathing op or him just chucking an a performance we all know he can followed by an absolute stinker.

Anyhow, the HF scarves are being made now so can't really see me changing my mind given what I'll have round my neck on the day in Tatts

I think he is a great Each/Way bet at 1/4 the odds 1-2-3 at 7-1.

I think the Fly will win, but Binocular and arguably Zark, although not for me, are realistically the only two that I can see who could give him a real race if running to their best.

It would not shock me to see him beat Hurricane Fly, but I would be very surprised if the Fly and two others beat him home, which justifies both the win and place part of that bet.

Tory

If it is a lightening pace and good ground I'll stick my neck out and say that if both are right then I'd just favour Binocular.

hes just beaten a sick celestial halo, he won one of the worst champion hurdles ever, seriously over rated horse cannot see him infront of ROR or OW never mind the fly...

Alleged - is there any evidence Celestial Halo was sick?

Tory - at his best, Binocular is around a 170 horse, Hurricane Fly 175, so of cours Bino could beat him. 5 lbs difference os lost in the noise and variability in a horse race - all it takes is for HF to be boxed in for a few strides, to clip a hurdle, to have something fall in front of him, etc and that difference in ability evaporates.

That is why we still bother to run races rather than just have the bookies pay out now

On the contrary, alleged, the evidence would suggest that HF is the horse that won a poor champion hurdle,beating two very inexperienced rivals into 2nd and 3rd while the reigning champion missed the race.  Binocular stepped up on a decent eddort when too inexperienced himself in 2009 to absolutely slaughter a pretty strong and experienced field in 2010.

i read a quote from andy stewert which said CH returned a sick horse

he went to aintree a fresh horse when the others had had hard cheltenham races and was stuffed, simples

Tx alleged.

Wrong trip, wrong track and the horse is NOT best when fresh.  Try again.

eddort?  effort, damn small keyboard lol.

Maybe HFly's CH win will turn out to look like quite a weak race, but surely not compared to Binocular's. What did he beat in that CH?

wrong trip? thats a matter of opinion, id like to see this horse step up in trip,  think hed run well in a world hurdle meself, zaynar and kyber kim were hardly world beaters that really was a poor champ hurdle

Solwhit, Go Native, previous winner Punjabi, previous runner up Celestial Halo, Khyber Kim had been winning trials impressively and at least had the experience to put up a serious challenge! Was a much stronger race.   Fast time as well, HF's time was awful, almost 2secs slower than the Supreme!

solwhit needs heavy ground, punjabi and CH were regressive that year, go native ran a shocker, KK and zaynar, handicappers at best. last years supreme when you look at it was a pretty hot race, and id bet the early pace was a lot quicker, would really need to see the sectionals..

Khyber Kim won a grade 2 trial impressively and then a grade 1 by 5L that spring, hardly a handicapper!  Zaynar was also a grade 1 novice winner and graded race winner that season, the form is solid.  HF by contrast beat 3 horses just out of the novice ranks and a County Handicap hurdle winner, ffs Menorah was 3/1 for the race it was so poor.

Cant believe your talking up Khyber Kim and Zaynar
and knocking Hurricane Flys form.Silly IMO

poor horses sometimes win grade 1,s its all about the quality of the opposition.

Can't believe people are knocking what, on his day, is the fastest hurdler we've seen in years!  Whether he can repeat that performance is open to question but to say his CH is the worst for years is bonkers mad rather than silly. 

Also Solwhit does not need heavy ground, he won the Aintree Hurdle on good to soft, same ground as Bino's Champion Hurdle.

Whatever your opinion on both horses and their respective CH wins,one thing for sure,we have not had the pleasure of both horses fit and well running against each other at Cheltenham in the CH.
i just hope,really hope,that we finally get that,and what a race that could be.

Agree with that Budd 100%.  A huge showdown that is being sadly overshadowed by being on the same day as Arkingbolt's presumed coronation in the novice chase!

To be fair if Sprinter Sacre does blow them away in the Arkle then the crowd will be buzzing for the champion hurdle. The tuesday is lining up to be one of the best days racing in a long time. I've been on HF since before January, Bino was impressive Saturday but both horses at their peak and running their race and I think HF has the ability to run to 175+ and I don't think  Binocular has that in his locker. I agree though in the actual race anything could happen to cause a below par performance

people still knocking Hurricne Flys form,oh dear.
He's only ever been beaten twice over hurdles,and one of them defeats was a back end of the season defeat in france,
Binocular on the other hand has shown he's an average horse with a hand full of defeats,
Not a hope he gets anywhere near HF

Knocking the quality of his CH not his 28 victories over Solwhit.  He is very good and very consistent.   Binocular is much less consistent but more brilliant.  If they both turn up at their best I believe Bino wins.

Its unreal to think people still think Binocular at his best is better the the fly ! I know everyone is entitled to there own opinions but that beggars belief.

Good luck anyway

Why? They are only 1 lb different on both career best OR and career best RPR.

If you're talking about today, you're probably right - but it depends what question you ask and whether you think Bino can repeat his career best.

Where is the quote from the owner of CH that the horse was sick ?? If he said that it should be available on-line ..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/9094415/Cheltenham-Festival-scare-for-Paul-Nicholls-as-cough-hits-stable.html

“Our horse Celestial Halo coughed and was a bit low after Wincanton on Saturday. Binocular ran past him as if he was riveted to the ground – and Celtic Halo is much better than that.”

[Though i doubt he called the horse "Celtic Halo" ]

OK thanks.

Tbf, we have seen Bino treat CH with contempt in the past. I think their head-to-head record is 6-1 in favour of Bino. That said, CH did have a hard race on Heavy going previously where he scrambled hom from Marsh Warbler so wouldn't be surprised if that left him a bit below par.

so binocular cruises past a sick horse and now he,s suddenly in the form of his life you couldnt make it up

re CH , PFN actually said he would have beaten Grandouet this season in that race at Wincanton when Grandouet fell. Anyone who watched that race knows it is complete bullshoit.

PFN very defensive when one of his brigade gets beat.

Some very I'll informed views here.

Binoculars main two rivals were either sick like Solwhit or got injured in the race like Go Native. So rule those two out of that race as a form guide.

Still binocular won that champion hurdle very well. Maybe he's a horse trained to peak at the festival. Remember he won the champion hurdle off a worse run of form before. While now he's had a better prep.

It's likely that even his top form isn't good enough to beat a still unexposed horse like Hurricane Fly. But one horse can have some bad luck in a race. Plus betting w/o fly he's still an excellent bet.

People knocking flys form is hilarious though

I really couldn't knock Fly's form as Thousand Stars and Oscar Whisky have won their fair share of races this year. Regarding you can argue Celestial Halo was sick but what about Starluck and the others who were left for dead? That was the furthest distance he's ever beaten Starluck. Champion hurdle conditions do seem bring out the best in him too.

If they both turn up at their best I believe Bino wins.
So when Hurricane Fly beats him in the CH,Will it be because Binocular wasnt at his best?

Agree, HF may have more to come yet but does anyone really think Peddlers Cross is a 170 hurdler?   165 max for me...

Never been a fan of Binocular but hope he can make a race of it this year. I do worry about the proximity of Peddler's Cross to HF last year. I dont think that was great 2 mile form.

PC was way short on exp last season. Such a surprise they went Chasing imo.

thieveslikeus






22 Feb 12 11:48
Joined:


11 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 424 | Blogger: thieveslikeus's blog



Solwhit, Go Native, previous winner Punjabi, previous runner up Celestial Halo, Khyber Kim had been winning trials impressively and at least had the experience to put up a serious challenge! Was a much stronger race.   Fast time as well, HF's time was awful, almost 2secs slower than the Supreme!



2010 CH Time: 3M 53.9
2011 CH Time: 3M 53.6

Must admit i was one who was knocking HF last season,well his form mainly with Solwhit,but hes won me round and convinced me hes a true class act.Cant knock him now thats for sure.
I also think Bino is a true class act on his day,and i really think that should Bino produce his best on the day,we are in for a treat.He certainly saves his best for the Festival,so its well possible it could happen.
HF is probably the better,certainly a darn sight more consistent,but its all about on the day.

Tory, you cannot compare times on different ground 2 years apart!  You can compare 2 races on the the same day, especially over the same c and d.

I'm a late comer to this thread, so apologies if I am just repeating what some people have said.

Firstly, Bino really impressed me on Saturday; not with what he beat, but how he jumped and travelled.  Whether Celestial Halo was sick or not, I don't think it would have mattered.  I think he is a major player in the w/out Hurricane Fly market, infact, I'd put him the best of the rest, but I don't think he's streets ahead of others in the market behind him (some of which are much bigger prices).

Trying to compare his Champion Hurdle win and Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle win is a pointless argument in my opinion.  Both are Champion Hurdles that won in impressive fashion (although on paper I would say the Fly's looks a lot stronger).

I believe Hurricane Fly is a much better horse than Binocular, and I don't think there is one single scenario where I would back Binocular over him.  Over 2m or 2m4f I'd back the Fly, on quick ground or a bog I'd back the Fly, and on a flat track or undulating track I'd back the Fly.

He is so much more consistent than Binocular, and when fit he never runs a bad race.  Even in defeat to Solwhit where even Muirhead beat him, he went down with a fight and all guns blazing, where Bino has the tendency to chuck the towel a little early for me.

I'm not saying the Fly is unbeatable.  3 weeks is a long time in racing, especially approaching the Festival, and this is magnified with the Fly and his injury record.

So sorry for not being original, talking up an odds on shot against a 6/1 shot, but I'd rather have a short price winner than a long price loser.  For those of you on double figure prices, I'm sure many (including me) would love to have that voucher, so well done.

Also, times mean nothing for me.  Different horses, different tactics are all a factor.  If you went by times, why isn't Al Ferof going for the Champion Hurdle, and why isn't he favourite?  He ran round 2 seconds faster so the Fly has to make up a couple of lengths on him for a start?

id do agree i think hf is awesome, the one thing i like about binocular is if he runs his best hes never been beat, he only ever gets beat when he underperforms, were was some other top horses have been beat when at their best, i dont think binocular has ever been beat when hes been at the the top of his game.

Agree thieves, just thought that awfulwas slightly strong

He ran round 2 seconds faster so the Fly has to make up a couple of lengths on him for a start?

how many lengths can a horse run in 2 seconds?????????????

No idea, why don't you get your stop watch and time them?

if he runs his best hes never been beat, he only ever gets beat when he underperforms

Wow,what a silly statement.you could say that about almost every horse,
Has Hurricane Fly even been beat when hes run to his best?has kauto star?has big bucks,has denman?

by my reckoning a national hunt horse covers around 12 lengths per second

1 second = roughly 6lbs

1 second = roughly 12lbs, brain freeze sorry, ignore above.  Alleged is roughly correct

5L/mile = 1 second, 10L at 2m, 1.2lbs/L = 12lbs.  That's the standard method for speed figure calcs, anyway.

Having watched the Kingwell again,its hard not to be impressed,glided all the way round and won without been asked a question,
if there was no Hurricane Fly then id give him every chance,but unfortunately for him,there is a Hurricane Fly

Well Well Well , I can not wait much longer , the fly is better than bino - my money is on and more will be going on - the best 4 mins of many a mans' lives IS the champion hurdle :)

I'm starting to wonder why we even bother holding these races. Apparently Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Big Bucks, Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe and Grands Crus only have to turn up to win. It would just be quicker and easier to hand over the trophies/prize money/bookies cash now and have a day off next month.

Think Quevega & BB may only have to turn up but wouldn't be a huge unbelievable shock if any of the rest got turned over.

Will more than likely be against Sprinter Sacre, Sizing and Grand Crus

Surely wherever Binocular finishes, Rock On Ruby has to be very close. Binocular was brilliant in his Champion and his jumping was back to its best at the weekend and think he'll give Hurricane Fly a real race.

Stront


Every year we have countless threads about the co called bankers,nothing different there mate.Only difference will be if they all actually win!!

Having said that,this year i have actually done some accas with the "unbeatables".Mainly as cover bets cos i have Oscar Whisky,Al Ferof and Binocular as big winners.

SE and Quevega i see as hard to beat,but the others could well be vulnerable,and if the aint i may still make some cash!!

It'd take a man with bigger balls than me to lay the Fly at anywhere near evens.

Of the"bankers" I see the Fly and Quevega as the best bets. Sizing Europe is not one I can back at a short price, Big Bucks will have the strongest opposition yet, and Grands Crus might not even run.

Injury plagued season or not, the Fly's comeback was sensational and if he can repeat that the others are running for place money. May be biased, I talked him up before last years CH at 14/1, backed him for the CH the year before and had him at a very very tasty price for Cousin Vinny's Supreme. Last year's win was vindication for me of 3 years of banging on to my mates about him.

The theory that Binocular is some kind of Cheltenham specialist is probably a illusion. He's a versatile
horse who handles most conditions ,but I doubt Chelt is ideal except under certain circumstances which he
had when he won 2 years ago. He ran okay when out stayed in the supreme on pretty soft ground and only
a few weeks later at Aintree looked a better horse on good ground on a flat track. In the champion hurdle
a year later he looked the one to beat but didn't look well pre-race and sweated up also. In the race they
went a sustained blistering gallop which appeared to blunt Binoclars finishing kick on the quite soft ground and he was left to settle for third which was disappointing. In 2010 he  finally faced goodish
ground at Chelt and won well seeing ,the trip out well.  If it's goodish ground this year he could get placed ,but if the ground rides very much on the soft side he may well get blown away.
Other facts about this horse are in his uk races he's   3/9 going left handed and 8/9 going right hand.

I'd quibble with a couple of minor points tinkler - Bino almost always sweats up and doesn't look great pre-race - whether he runs well or not. I also think it's harsh to say he "settled for third" in his first CH when he'd have been in front 2 strides after the line, whereas you make it sound like he got stuffed.

For me hes never ran a bad race at the festival,2nd 3rd and 1st backs that up.
When you consider he was only a 4yr old in the Supreme up against a stronger horse who proved pretty useful when fit.
He ran in the CH as a 5yr old,missed part of his prep and very nearly won the race.
He then came back the following year a much more mature and fit horse and bolted up.
All says to me that Cheltenham in March suits him fine.

I don't agree that he always looks not great pre-race. He looked not well in his coat that day whereas he
had looked really well he looked great prior to  beating Celestial halo very impressively at Ascot.
It was disappointing that he couldn't beat celestial halo in that champion hurdle and he didn't look to fire that day to me.
I've opposed Binocular in the betting w/o Hf market and up to saturday saw him as no danger to rock on ruby. But although saturdays form is probably of low merit ,he looked on very good terms with himself and
it's possible the wind operation he has had since Christmas has had a significant effect on him

Tinkler - we'll have to dsgaree about that. Every time I've seen Bino in the flesh he's look rather dull in his coat and sweated up on his neck (at least).

I agree Bino's first CH turned out not to be great form, punjabi and Celesial weren't world beaters, but nor was it a catastrophic defeat. As Budd says he has some possible excuses in that race.

I really wouldn't like to predict how Bino will do this year. If he's at his best he should place, but he's so inconsistent nowadays, who knows?

Ok, lets look at binoculars form here. Fighting Fifth he is never fit so never runs well. He always posts an improved run at Kempton coming 3rd(when his hurdling was poor) and winning it twice He then wins his prep race and heads to cheltenham. Now he won the champion after his 3rd at Kempton. The following year he missed cheltenham, then failed to die over 2m4f in aintree hurdle. Before having to make the running and jumping left at three hurdles in the pouring rain when hammered by Fly.

This season he had his usual fighting fifth performance, then an ok win at kempton, after which he had a breathing op and posted a much improved run in the Kingwell.

If Hurricane Fly got inured I'd be hammering this horse at the festival at the 3/1 mark to beat a couple of five year olds and a couple of stayers.

But as for beating Fly, I just don't think he's good enough to do it. Fly will probably go out and post an exceptional performance in the race this year as he has improved quite a bit from last year.

I'm not sure winning a 5 runner race in a bog at leopardstown where unaccompanied ran no race and 1,000 stars
went off too quick means he's improved since last year. Whether he needs to have improved is a different matter. I don't agree Binoculer was unfit for this years fighting fifth ,he was reported to have been
fit pre-race and looked very fit in the paddock. Fitness was not offered as an excuse . The previous year
at Newbury for the fighting fifth he was overweight and lack of fitness was used to excuse his defeat.

He has improved since last years race. He is now more relaxed and has won to grade 1s on the bridle beating grade 1 winners in the process. A faster pace in this years campion is what he nerds. They don't go fast enough for him. His ability to travel is awesome, plus while others are hard at it when he cruises up he isn't out of second gear.

Hopefully well have a fast pace in the champion this year, with three stayers and overturn hopefully there will be pace. He'll win further the faster they go. He'd beat any in this field over 2m4f as well. Awesome horse who just looks like he's peaking now.

would you still have this opinion if the other 2 henderson runners were still in the champion hurdle, baring in mind bino is 3rd string

Binocular clearly was the first string. At worst 2nd if Spirit Son was as good as Hendo rated him.

But yes, Fly is a cut above everything. He'll win it this year and we'll see how age takes its hold next year.

bino 3rd string.........