Cheltenham Festival
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17 Feb 12
20:50
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16 Mar 05
Did I not read earlier this week Binocular will head straight to the Champion Hurdle? It's declared to run tomorrow in the Kingwell?
Is NJH playing mind games with us?
Is NJH playing mind games with us?
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it's because Grandouet was going to run in the Kingwell but has had a "slight setback". Bno was going to gallop at Newbury this afternoon before that.
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Yeh just read that. Cheers Stron
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IT ABSOLUTELY SHAT UP!!
Was there and FOOLISHLY believed all the BS about not being prepped for the race. Ground was tacky and thought CH might cause him problems from the front - actually did CH EW at 10/3 before it was backed in. 5/6 briefly available on the favourite was a gift horse gone begging - it never came off the bridle, MCCoy didn't touch him and he won at will (who incidentally looked crocked to shyte and whose shoulder was hanging so he must be one fxxk of a brave man and the racecourse doctor must've had a bottle of sherry not to spot it) Will it get Hurricane Fly off the bridle? don't know - but IMVHO it's NAILED ON FOR A PLACE! SAME old story though - cannot back one of chemical nickie's until the day in case he forgets to XXXX XXX XXXXX!! sorry - censor's been busy... but you know what I mean ;O)P |
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Was very and as someone already heavily invested in The Fly (albeit at 7/4 and 6/4 NRNB) has made me think a little. Had a hideous dream about Ruby being hard at work approaching the last and AP unmoved.
Think I could play Binocular in the w/o market and IMHO, a straight Fly Binocular forecast could be one hell of a bet. Binocular will hit every single stat i can think of at this stage and all others have serious question marks be it being 5, not having won at cheltenham, not won last time out etc etc etc |
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Beating Celestial Halo is no where near good enough to win a CH,Certainly not while HF is around
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Nice performance but beating Celestial and Starluck isn't going to have Mullins quaking in his boots. What will have interested them is the relative ease with which he did it. The big question is can we be sure that he will turn up in that form anyway irrespective of whether it will be good enough? Incidentally I've long been of the view that on goodish ground and with pace he is the only won capable of serving it up to HF.
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Oh yeah, the bare form isnt good enough; it was the way he travelled which I found taking.
When he's been at his best he's been very slick at his hurdles and when not right he kind of lumps over them a bit. On Saturday he was very very good. Don't see how he'll beat HF but I think he's the only credible opposition this year IMO |
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Was writing mine as you were writing yours - think we are going along the same lines
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My view hasn't changed really. Someone asked me weeks ago what could beat HF and whilst I suggested it would be a very tall order I did say that I've never seen a jockey taking a pull going to two out in a champion hurdle as McCoy did that day. I think people massively underestimate just how good Bino is on a going day because he appears to have so many bad days. My personal view is that if you look at it in a particular way the jigsaw falls into place and he isn't as inconsistent as people make out. Whether he is good enough I don't know and I wouldn't be taking short prices about him but for me he would be worth an each way punt at around 9-1 if the first race suggests that the ground is riding close to good.
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He wont be anywhere near 9/1 on the day - if he turns up can see him getting back in to be honest.
His OR that day was 163 whereas HF's was 167 and HF has arguably improved and Bino has maybe regressed a little but does show that on his day he's not a million miles away. Either have him placed or w/o |
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I have never really called Binocular's performance right and am probably not going to be able to start now. I thought it was very taking how he accelerated away from Celestial Halo but CH is a limited horse who has always struggled to make an impact at the very top level.
I thought if anything the fly had improved on his re-appearance and he looked head and shoulders in front of anything last season. The champion hurdle looks at least on paper a stronger event than the Champion chase for instance and it's good for the race that Binocular is looking something back to his best. Only three weeks to find out now!  |
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tipped up binocular months ago on here for champion hurdle, its going to get lumped on the day, GET ON NOW!!!
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When i took the 16's e/w Bino i must admit it was sightly on the hopeful side that he would come back to his best for the festival.
Looking at that the other day suggests to me that he aint far from that. He always runs well at the festival,and hes never faced HF at his best. We could be in for a treat if THE Bino turns up. Certainly hope he does!! |
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Re his race on Saturday, he could only beat the horses that showed up and he did that very takingly. Celestial Halo is not top class but he's very good, very consistent and has his preferred ground. It's reasonable to conclude Binocular ran to something like 170. He also hurlded like he did at his very best.
That puts him within spitting distance of HF and 5 lbs is nothing in a horse race - if one of the horses gets boxed in, something falls in front of it, one fluffs a jump.... What would worry me more about Binocular than his bare form is his inconsistency. Who knows if he'll give his running at Cheltenham, whereas we can be pretty sure HF will. |
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He had a breathing op after kempton and it looks to have worked. He loves the track and I think the 4/1 w/o Fly is the bet of the festival. Clear second best horse in the race.
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I've him ew @10/1 & w/o Fly@ 5/1
Only danger to Fly in this race. Zark possibly too given he was sick winning the betfair hurdle. Still he'd have to be some 5yo to beat Fly. |
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looking like a better bet if Grandouet is not able to run. Would bring the number of potential 2nds to HF down by one. The Ante-post market on Grandouet has moved violently this afternoon.
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What's the general consensus then here regarding the CH - do you feel he can honestly beat HF?
Ignore the 'which Binoocular turns up on the day' and assume he, and HF, are bang on the money. I'm happy with my bet on HF at the odds but prior to Sat I just couldn't see him losing. Now i'm slightly less certain. Still feel HF / Bino straight forecast could be a great bet. If Grandeout is out then it's only really Zarkandar and Oscars Well that have a claim - gut is that Binocular is better than both. Really wish Binocular could have another run beforehand as we dont really know if it was the breathing op or him just chucking an a performance we all know he can followed by an absolute stinker. Anyhow, the HF scarves are being made now so can't really see me changing my mind given what I'll have round my neck on the day in Tatts |
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I think he is a great Each/Way bet at 1/4 the odds 1-2-3 at 7-1.
I think the Fly will win, but Binocular and arguably Zark, although not for me, are realistically the only two that I can see who could give him a real race if running to their best. It would not shock me to see him beat Hurricane Fly, but I would be very surprised if the Fly and two others beat him home, which justifies both the win and place part of that bet. |
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Tory
If it is a lightening pace and good ground I'll stick my neck out and say that if both are right then I'd just favour Binocular. |
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hes just beaten a sick celestial halo, he won one of the worst champion hurdles ever, seriously over rated horse cannot see him infront of ROR or OW never mind the fly...
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Alleged - is there any evidence Celestial Halo was sick?
Tory - at his best, Binocular is around a 170 horse, Hurricane Fly 175, so of cours Bino could beat him. 5 lbs difference os lost in the noise and variability in a horse race - all it takes is for HF to be boxed in for a few strides, to clip a hurdle, to have something fall in front of him, etc and that difference in ability evaporates. That is why we still bother to run races rather than just have the bookies pay out now  |
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On the contrary, alleged, the evidence would suggest that HF is the horse that won a poor champion hurdle,beating two very inexperienced rivals into 2nd and 3rd while the reigning champion missed the race. Binocular stepped up on a decent eddort when too inexperienced himself in 2009 to absolutely slaughter a pretty strong and experienced field in 2010.
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i read a quote from andy stewert which said CH returned a sick horse
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he went to aintree a fresh horse when the others had had hard cheltenham races and was stuffed, simples
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Tx alleged.
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Wrong trip, wrong track and the horse is NOT best when fresh. Try again.
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eddort? effort, damn small keyboard lol.
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Maybe HFly's CH win will turn out to look like quite a weak race, but surely not compared to Binocular's. What did he beat in that CH?
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wrong trip? thats a matter of opinion, id like to see this horse step up in trip, think hed run well in a world hurdle meself, zaynar and kyber kim were hardly world beaters that really was a poor champ hurdle
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Solwhit, Go Native, previous winner Punjabi, previous runner up Celestial Halo, Khyber Kim had been winning trials impressively and at least had the experience to put up a serious challenge! Was a much stronger race. Fast time as well, HF's time was awful, almost 2secs slower than the Supreme!
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solwhit needs heavy ground, punjabi and CH were regressive that year, go native ran a shocker, KK and zaynar, handicappers at best. last years supreme when you look at it was a pretty hot race, and id bet the early pace was a lot quicker, would really need to see the sectionals..
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Khyber Kim won a grade 2 trial impressively and then a grade 1 by 5L that spring, hardly a handicapper! Zaynar was also a grade 1 novice winner and graded race winner that season, the form is solid. HF by contrast beat 3 horses just out of the novice ranks and a County Handicap hurdle winner, ffs Menorah was 3/1 for the race it was so poor.
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Cant believe your talking up Khyber Kim and Zaynar
and knocking Hurricane Flys form.Silly IMO  |
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poor horses sometimes win grade 1,s its all about the quality of the opposition.
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Can't believe people are knocking what, on his day, is the fastest hurdler we've seen in years! Whether he can repeat that performance is open to question but to say his CH is the worst for years is bonkers mad rather than silly.
Also Solwhit does not need heavy ground, he won the Aintree Hurdle on good to soft, same ground as Bino's Champion Hurdle. |
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Whatever your opinion on both horses and their respective CH wins,one thing for sure,we have not had the pleasure of both horses fit and well running against each other at Cheltenham in the CH.
i just hope,really hope,that we finally get that,and what a race that could be. |
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Agree with that Budd 100%. A huge showdown that is being sadly overshadowed by being on the same day as Arkingbolt's presumed coronation in the novice chase!
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