Cheltenham Festival
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Started to look at this race in more depth now as the contenders for the race are sorting themselves out. l like to use stats to help guide me towards my selection (not everyones cup of tea l accept) and if have listed positive and negatives below along with my thoughts on the contenders.
+ Ran well in the Paddy Power and or December Gold Cup
+ Contested the King George
+ Proven at this trip and further
- Lack of solid Cheltenham form
- Unfancied in the betting
- Top rated on BHA figures (Albertas Run & Poquelin at this stage)
- Peterborough Chase winner (Gauvin)
- Rated lower than 156
Contenders;
Rubi Light - rated 164 and was 3l 3rd in the race last year in what was effectively his novice season (won only chase start before last season in France in 09). He has only once finished outside of the first 3 in 10 chase starts and has won 5 of them. He faded late on after making most in the Lexus when outstayed by the winner but holding a dour stayer (QDLR) back in third. That was on decent ground and provided we don't get rattling fast ground he should be ok (was fine on good ground last year) and the step back in trip from 3m should be right up his street especially when you consider he'll be ridden very prominently he will be able to kick on when he wants to make use of his stamina. He runs in the Red Mills chase on Saturday and probably should be winning that which will set him up nicely for this.
Great Endeavour - rated 157 and won the Byrne Group handicap over this C&D 2 years ago before falling in the Spinal Research Handicap on the first day last year. He probably would of been placed in that, even after been given a poor ride (missed the break badly and then rushed up past every other horse to take the lead). He easily won the Paddy Power earlier in the season beating Quantatitiveeasing by 7l and that horse then went onto win the December Gold Cup on his next start. He moved like the best horse at the weights in the Hennessey Gold Cup and was still on the bridle 2out and still looked a big danger after the last but he just failed to see out the trip. Timmy Murphy said afterwards that he didn't get home in the last 2f (Hennessey is 3m 2f). lt is probably best to ignore his run in the December Gold Cup behind Quantatitiveeasing as a) it came not long after the Hennessey so could of still been feeling the effects of that race, b) he almost knocked the 10th fence out of the ground and c) he was badly hampered 3out by his stable mate Swing Bill and was then left to come home in his own time. He's been given plenty of time to get over those 3 quick(ish) runs at the start of the season and will come into the race a fresh horse. He had a progressive profile before his last run and he's only had 16 career starts in total and could still be progressive when we see him again.
Medermit - rated 163 and has excellent Cheltenham form, albeit not winning here. He was 3/4l behind Quantatitiveeasing in the December Gold Cup off 157, had finished 4th in last years Arkle (running on after getting outpaced) and he was a very close 2nd in Go Native's Supreme. From 7 runs at Cheltenham he has been placed 5 times and the two times he wasn't he finished 4th & 5th. He has plenty of good form at around the Ryanair trip but he has never tried 3m before. Alan King said after his last run that he would to try him over 3m though and he is entered in the Denman Chase at Newbury on Friday so his profile for this race could be boosted if he runs well and seems to get the trip in that race.
Noble Prince - rated 163 and won the Jewson last season over 1f shorter, breaking the track record (l'm not sure how long the record had stood and l'm too sure how many chases are ran over 20f at Cheltenham). He did get outpaced turning for home in that race before staying on strongly up the hill under McCoys driving (unlikely to ride this year with Albertas Run in the race). He has tried 3m twice as a hurdler and looked not to stay the trip both times (travelling strongly and fading before/after the last flight on both occasions). He has been trained for this race all year and a bit like last year he is coming into the race off the back of finishing 2nd in his previous couple of runs. That said, it would of been nice to see him get his head in front last time out where he was beaten by Blazing Tempo who's trainer, Willie Mullins, thinks she has nowhere near enough quality to win this race and she is priced at 33/1 in the market.
Others to consider;
Riverside Theatre - he's a really hard horse for me to summerise as we haven't seen him this season so far (runs at Ascot on Saturday) and his best form is on flatter tracks. He has however finished 2nd in a King George, jockey felt he stayed the trip, and that one piece of form is probably better than anything else in the race. He didn't look to handle the undulations at Cheltenham on the one occcasions he's ran here (fast finishing 5th in Sizing Europes Arkle) and on that basis l think l will bypass him.
Kauto Stone - my main worry with him is that he regularly jumped right handed in France and so far Nicholls has only ran him on right handed tracks. He's entered at the weekend at Ascot, again a right handed track. With this in mind l can't back him for this race at the current prices until l have seen him go left handed.
Somersby - lt looks to be becoming more and more obvious that Ascot is this horses track. l'm not 100% sure what he actually achevied when beating Finnians Rainbow there last time out, will have a better idea after the Champion Chase on Wednesday, but his run in the Peterborough was disappointing. Again at the current prices l think there are better alternatives to him.
lf pushed for a selection at this stage l think l would probably side with Great Endeavour given his Festival record and he's lightly raced and was progressive before his last run.
+ Ran well in the Paddy Power and or December Gold Cup
+ Contested the King George
+ Proven at this trip and further
- Lack of solid Cheltenham form
- Unfancied in the betting
- Top rated on BHA figures (Albertas Run & Poquelin at this stage)
- Peterborough Chase winner (Gauvin)
- Rated lower than 156
Contenders;
Rubi Light - rated 164 and was 3l 3rd in the race last year in what was effectively his novice season (won only chase start before last season in France in 09). He has only once finished outside of the first 3 in 10 chase starts and has won 5 of them. He faded late on after making most in the Lexus when outstayed by the winner but holding a dour stayer (QDLR) back in third. That was on decent ground and provided we don't get rattling fast ground he should be ok (was fine on good ground last year) and the step back in trip from 3m should be right up his street especially when you consider he'll be ridden very prominently he will be able to kick on when he wants to make use of his stamina. He runs in the Red Mills chase on Saturday and probably should be winning that which will set him up nicely for this.
Great Endeavour - rated 157 and won the Byrne Group handicap over this C&D 2 years ago before falling in the Spinal Research Handicap on the first day last year. He probably would of been placed in that, even after been given a poor ride (missed the break badly and then rushed up past every other horse to take the lead). He easily won the Paddy Power earlier in the season beating Quantatitiveeasing by 7l and that horse then went onto win the December Gold Cup on his next start. He moved like the best horse at the weights in the Hennessey Gold Cup and was still on the bridle 2out and still looked a big danger after the last but he just failed to see out the trip. Timmy Murphy said afterwards that he didn't get home in the last 2f (Hennessey is 3m 2f). lt is probably best to ignore his run in the December Gold Cup behind Quantatitiveeasing as a) it came not long after the Hennessey so could of still been feeling the effects of that race, b) he almost knocked the 10th fence out of the ground and c) he was badly hampered 3out by his stable mate Swing Bill and was then left to come home in his own time. He's been given plenty of time to get over those 3 quick(ish) runs at the start of the season and will come into the race a fresh horse. He had a progressive profile before his last run and he's only had 16 career starts in total and could still be progressive when we see him again.
Medermit - rated 163 and has excellent Cheltenham form, albeit not winning here. He was 3/4l behind Quantatitiveeasing in the December Gold Cup off 157, had finished 4th in last years Arkle (running on after getting outpaced) and he was a very close 2nd in Go Native's Supreme. From 7 runs at Cheltenham he has been placed 5 times and the two times he wasn't he finished 4th & 5th. He has plenty of good form at around the Ryanair trip but he has never tried 3m before. Alan King said after his last run that he would to try him over 3m though and he is entered in the Denman Chase at Newbury on Friday so his profile for this race could be boosted if he runs well and seems to get the trip in that race.
Noble Prince - rated 163 and won the Jewson last season over 1f shorter, breaking the track record (l'm not sure how long the record had stood and l'm too sure how many chases are ran over 20f at Cheltenham). He did get outpaced turning for home in that race before staying on strongly up the hill under McCoys driving (unlikely to ride this year with Albertas Run in the race). He has tried 3m twice as a hurdler and looked not to stay the trip both times (travelling strongly and fading before/after the last flight on both occasions). He has been trained for this race all year and a bit like last year he is coming into the race off the back of finishing 2nd in his previous couple of runs. That said, it would of been nice to see him get his head in front last time out where he was beaten by Blazing Tempo who's trainer, Willie Mullins, thinks she has nowhere near enough quality to win this race and she is priced at 33/1 in the market.
Others to consider;
Riverside Theatre - he's a really hard horse for me to summerise as we haven't seen him this season so far (runs at Ascot on Saturday) and his best form is on flatter tracks. He has however finished 2nd in a King George, jockey felt he stayed the trip, and that one piece of form is probably better than anything else in the race. He didn't look to handle the undulations at Cheltenham on the one occcasions he's ran here (fast finishing 5th in Sizing Europes Arkle) and on that basis l think l will bypass him.
Kauto Stone - my main worry with him is that he regularly jumped right handed in France and so far Nicholls has only ran him on right handed tracks. He's entered at the weekend at Ascot, again a right handed track. With this in mind l can't back him for this race at the current prices until l have seen him go left handed.
Somersby - lt looks to be becoming more and more obvious that Ascot is this horses track. l'm not 100% sure what he actually achevied when beating Finnians Rainbow there last time out, will have a better idea after the Champion Chase on Wednesday, but his run in the Peterborough was disappointing. Again at the current prices l think there are better alternatives to him.
lf pushed for a selection at this stage l think l would probably side with Great Endeavour given his Festival record and he's lightly raced and was progressive before his last run.
Show More
THE RYANAIR CHASE
Class 1, Grade 1, 2m 5f, £260,000 Total Prize Fund. 2.40pm, Cheltenham, Thursday, March 15, 2012.
Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
4FP12-1 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 11 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
52-FU111 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
2143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
211-1U3P CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 8 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
4-U1231 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 7 Mark Boothright Martin Keighley
2/2P-2334 FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) 10 Goat Racing Syndicate Tom Cooper IRE
1/01651- FRENCH OPERA 9 Judy Wilson & Martin Landau Nicky Henderson
520-1F1F GAUVAIN (GER) 10 Jared Sullivan & Simon Brown Nick Williams
2F6-140 GREAT ENDEAVOUR (IRE) 8 David Johnson David Pipe
21/460-05 I'M SO LUCKY 10 Sheila Brookhouse David Pipe
5331442 I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (IRE) 10 Jo Tracey David Pipe
111/1/00/- JACK THE GIANT (IRE) 10 Hanbury Syndicate Nicky Henderson
(5)42P-5P KALAHARI KING (FR) 11 Julie Morgan Ferdy Murphy
1103-12 KAUTO STONE (FR) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls
16/1155-6 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies
51124-00 MAGNANIMITY (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
F/U563U-F MAHOGANY BLAZE (FR) 10 Lorna Berryman Nigel Twiston-Davies
142-132 MEDERMIT (FR) 8 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership Alan King
21-F1222 NOBLE PRINCE (GER) 8 Des Sharkey Paul Nolan IRE
5141-5U2 POQUELIN (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
1FF-F111 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
2113-12 REALT DUBH (IRE) 8 Derek Sharkey Noel Meade IRE
15F/121- RIVERSIDE THEATRE 8 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership Nicky Henderson
0-512F5 ROI DU MEE (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
213-312 RUBI LIGHT (FR) 7 Bill Hennessy Robbie Hennessy IRE
53-12241 SOMERSBY (IRE) 8 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight
504-5060 TARTAK (FR) 9 Power Panels Electrical Systems Ltd Tom George
10-U1P23 TRANQUIL SEA (IRE) 10 Dermot Cox/Nelius Hayes Edward O'Grady IRE
21-16526 WISHFULL THINKING 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
29 entries remain after February 14 scratchings deadline
10 Irish-trained
THE FOLLOWING 9 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: AERIAL (FR), FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE), HELL'S BAY (FR), JESSIES DREAM (IRE),
MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE), RARE BOB (IRE), RIVAGE D'OR (FR), THE NIGHTINGALE (FR), WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (IRE)
Class 1, Grade 1, 2m 5f, £260,000 Total Prize Fund. 2.40pm, Cheltenham, Thursday, March 15, 2012.
Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
4FP12-1 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 11 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill
52-FU111 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
2143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
211-1U3P CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 8 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
4-U1231 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 7 Mark Boothright Martin Keighley
2/2P-2334 FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) 10 Goat Racing Syndicate Tom Cooper IRE
1/01651- FRENCH OPERA 9 Judy Wilson & Martin Landau Nicky Henderson
520-1F1F GAUVAIN (GER) 10 Jared Sullivan & Simon Brown Nick Williams
2F6-140 GREAT ENDEAVOUR (IRE) 8 David Johnson David Pipe
21/460-05 I'M SO LUCKY 10 Sheila Brookhouse David Pipe
5331442 I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (IRE) 10 Jo Tracey David Pipe
111/1/00/- JACK THE GIANT (IRE) 10 Hanbury Syndicate Nicky Henderson
(5)42P-5P KALAHARI KING (FR) 11 Julie Morgan Ferdy Murphy
1103-12 KAUTO STONE (FR) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls
16/1155-6 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies
51124-00 MAGNANIMITY (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE
F/U563U-F MAHOGANY BLAZE (FR) 10 Lorna Berryman Nigel Twiston-Davies
142-132 MEDERMIT (FR) 8 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership Alan King
21-F1222 NOBLE PRINCE (GER) 8 Des Sharkey Paul Nolan IRE
5141-5U2 POQUELIN (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
1FF-F111 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
2113-12 REALT DUBH (IRE) 8 Derek Sharkey Noel Meade IRE
15F/121- RIVERSIDE THEATRE 8 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership Nicky Henderson
0-512F5 ROI DU MEE (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
213-312 RUBI LIGHT (FR) 7 Bill Hennessy Robbie Hennessy IRE
53-12241 SOMERSBY (IRE) 8 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight
504-5060 TARTAK (FR) 9 Power Panels Electrical Systems Ltd Tom George
10-U1P23 TRANQUIL SEA (IRE) 10 Dermot Cox/Nelius Hayes Edward O'Grady IRE
21-16526 WISHFULL THINKING 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
29 entries remain after February 14 scratchings deadline
10 Irish-trained
THE FOLLOWING 9 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: AERIAL (FR), FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE), HELL'S BAY (FR), JESSIES DREAM (IRE),
MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE), RARE BOB (IRE), RIVAGE D'OR (FR), THE NIGHTINGALE (FR), WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (IRE)
Have to agree with buddeliea. To not even discuss AR as a contender somewhat detracts from the post imo. Won the last two runnings and 3 festival wins out of 5 appearances is surely worthy of a mention, even if not picked.
Personally I see him as a cracking e/w bet though looking like potentially a stronger race in depth this year
Personally I see him as a cracking e/w bet though looking like potentially a stronger race in depth this year
Doesn't mention Kalahari King of Forpadydeplasterer either, both of whom have excellent Festival records.
I really like the OP - thinking along the same lines
As I have already said several times, I have backed Great Endeavour and Medermit for this race for very similar reasons to those given
I think that race won by Quantitativeeasing is going to prove outstanding and I will be backing all oif the principals on their next few starts (Med, GE, QE, RV)
As I have already said several times, I have backed Great Endeavour and Medermit for this race for very similar reasons to those given
I think that race won by Quantitativeeasing is going to prove outstanding and I will be backing all oif the principals on their next few starts (Med, GE, QE, RV)
He has left out last years winner though,and no reason why he should not figure again imo.
I like that form as well Judo,but it is handicap form for a Group 1. Their is other form around at higher level.
I like that form as well Judo,but it is handicap form for a Group 1. Their is other form around at higher level.
Presumably ditched AR because he is officially the joint best horse in the race, his negative stat above?
Have to say as someone who uses stats to help profile horses, and has done for decades, that sort of illogical use of them drives me nuts.
race speThe race has only been going a few years, yes you can look for early race specific trends like key races and whether 2nd season chasers are favoured, as there are in many similar G1 chases, but to be throwing out the best horses, on the basis of a small sample of runnings to date, has no validity whatsoever in my view.
Have to say as someone who uses stats to help profile horses, and has done for decades, that sort of illogical use of them drives me nuts.
race speThe race has only been going a few years, yes you can look for early race specific trends like key races and whether 2nd season chasers are favoured, as there are in many similar G1 chases, but to be throwing out the best horses, on the basis of a small sample of runnings to date, has no validity whatsoever in my view.
Incidentally, I believe this is a race where stats can be unhelpful. The race is new (only run 7 times) and in it's short life it's changed imo. In the first few years (when it was a Grade 2) it was almost a conditions race rerun of the Nov and Dec handicaps over 2 1/2 miles and was won by horses with decent form from those handicaps. In the last 3 renewals (as a Grade 1), it's been won by genuine Grade 1 horses (as were many of the places horses). I appreciate Imperial was winning his first Grade 1 following a win in the Paddy Power Gold cup that season, but he was ultra-progressive and won an outstanding Gold Cup 12 months later. My view is therefore to be careful of the handicappers and look for a horse that is, or is about to become, a true Grade 1 performer.
Budd, Group 1? It's not the Derby mate! It's a Grade 1 but below championship class, the handicap race was a Class 1 Grade 3, hardly a giant step up.
yeh,i see that now,well each to their own.
Would have thought last years race would have a bearing,particularly when it has the winner of the last 2 runnings,and a pretty good winner at that.
Would have thought last years race would have a bearing,particularly when it has the winner of the last 2 runnings,and a pretty good winner at that.
I agree Budd, he must be a big player. He's been unlikley to coincide with Kauto/Denman or he'd be considered a superstar.
Poquelin was considered worthy of being fav for this race on the strength of his handicap wins at Chelt,but AR put paid to him twice now.
It does make a difference imo.
It does make a difference imo.
Didn't mean it's not a point to consider budd, just that it isn't impossible with the right horse. Medermit has solid form in graded conditions races as well as that handicap , so would see him as a more likely contender than Great Endeavour.
I wasn't putting my faith in the Spinal research race due to trends
No, it is the collateral form and the speed ratings combined which make me think it is absolutely top class form irrespective of being a Grade 3. I think QE in particular can go on and become a really really good horse at 3 miles 2 furlong +
From that Spinal Race you have Calgary Bay who has since won twice including the Skybet (Great Yorkshire)Chase and improved his RPR by 16lbs
Then Tatenen and I'msingingtheblues who finished first and second at Ascot in a £50 grand handicap chase and both improved their RPRS by 9 to 11lbs...
and there was a 10 length gap from Roudoudou Ville in 3rd to the 4th so I strongly believe you can seriously upgrade the first 3 home. Medermit carried 11 st 5lbs too which was a huge effort and I think his RPR of 164 underestimates him especially if you think how Calgary Bay improved on his next two starts - I certainly think Medermit is easily capable of RPRs in the 170s with a really strong run race. 16/1 looks huge
The fact that the OP discusses the trends which support my form and ratings argument only fills me with more confidence as I hadn't done that work for the Ryan Air
No, it is the collateral form and the speed ratings combined which make me think it is absolutely top class form irrespective of being a Grade 3. I think QE in particular can go on and become a really really good horse at 3 miles 2 furlong +
From that Spinal Race you have Calgary Bay who has since won twice including the Skybet (Great Yorkshire)Chase and improved his RPR by 16lbs
Then Tatenen and I'msingingtheblues who finished first and second at Ascot in a £50 grand handicap chase and both improved their RPRS by 9 to 11lbs...
and there was a 10 length gap from Roudoudou Ville in 3rd to the 4th so I strongly believe you can seriously upgrade the first 3 home. Medermit carried 11 st 5lbs too which was a huge effort and I think his RPR of 164 underestimates him especially if you think how Calgary Bay improved on his next two starts - I certainly think Medermit is easily capable of RPRs in the 170s with a really strong run race. 16/1 looks huge
The fact that the OP discusses the trends which support my form and ratings argument only fills me with more confidence as I hadn't done that work for the Ryan Air
Notice they have left Captain Chris in this. Hobbs stable tour interview in today's weekender said he was being prepared for the GC but might still go for the Ryanair! No idea when the actual interview took place and where the remarks fall in the timeline of what they have been saying but they haven't forfeited...
I agree judo, I rate that race very highly based on both time and form.
albertas e/w has to be a guarantee, love him to bits! i would not back a handicapper in grade 1.
and he's been taken out of gold cup so at least we know he's going again.
let's put it this way, if Medermit wins the Ascot chase on Saturday he will be in single figures for the Ryan Air
I notice that I'msingingtheblues is also entered and if he runs that will give a good level to the form as he will run an RPR of 157 +/- the margin of error
I notice that I'msingingtheblues is also entered and if he runs that will give a good level to the form as he will run an RPR of 157 +/- the margin of error
funny that Long Run ran in a handicap before winning a king george and a Gold Cup 
l left Albertas Run out due to the fact that he is 11 and will be going there without a run after an injury so l can't really profile the horse. l have backed hi
l left Albertas Run out due to the fact that he is 11 and will be going there without a run after an injury so l can't really profile the horse. l have backed him in the last 2 runnings of this race but we just don't know how much is left after his injury.
Him being 11 is my reason for not putting on my short list too bland, thanks for the clarification.
Also his only run this season was in a handicap...
Also his only run this season was in a handicap...
Judo - If Medermit steps up to Grade 1 form then he's got a good chance. There's no reason he shouldn't, he won a Grade 1 as a novice and as you say his handicap form is strong an he's progressive. My feeling stil is that he will have to improve more to win the Ryanair.
Long Run is not a great example having won Grade 1's in France and in the Feltham before running in that handicap. That race, as it turned out, appeared to be a needed seasonal debut and an inaequate trip. But you can't really argue he ran to the same level of form in the CGC and KG as in the PP - he had to step up a lot to win the two Grade 1s.
Long Run is not a great example having won Grade 1's in France and in the Feltham before running in that handicap. That race, as it turned out, appeared to be a needed seasonal debut and an inaequate trip. But you can't really argue he ran to the same level of form in the CGC and KG as in the PP - he had to step up a lot to win the two Grade 1s.
bloke a couple posts before me posted "wouldn't back a handicapper in a Grade 1" Budd which is why I mentioned it and now I think of it...
Rhinestone Cowboy Coral Cup to Aintree Hurdle
Make a Stand Tote Gold Trophy to Champion Hurdle
Denman Hennessey to Gold Cup...
Rhinestone Cowboy Coral Cup to Aintree Hurdle
Make a Stand Tote Gold Trophy to Champion Hurdle
Denman Hennessey to Gold Cup...
yes I think he will have to improve but I am predicting that he will because the form in the handicap is stronger than most people think
Call Equiname won the Victor Chandler when it was a handicap then won the QMCC
I bet there are loads of them if you thought about it
I bet there are loads of them if you thought about it
Its just trying to make a point Stront,thats all.
We can all come up with examples to show our case as i did with Poquelin and Albertas.
I do think the Spinal form could be relevant to the Ryanair this season,and i have backed Medermit,although that was after Exeter,but i prefer the Grade 1 form.
Thats my choice.
We can all come up with examples to show our case as i did with Poquelin and Albertas.
I do think the Spinal form could be relevant to the Ryanair this season,and i have backed Medermit,although that was after Exeter,but i prefer the Grade 1 form.
Thats my choice.
Deep Sensation beaten in the VC by a novice, won Champion Chase next time out.
Flakey Dove, schweppes 2nd won champion hurdle
Rooster Booster, loads of handicaps before stepping up
Flakey Dove, schweppes 2nd won champion hurdle
Rooster Booster, loads of handicaps before stepping up
Thieves, as I said above, Imperial was winning his first Grade 1 following a win in the Paddy Power Gold cup that season, but he was ultra-progressive and won an outstanding Gold Cup 12 months later. He was therefore a horse that was about to become a true Grade 1 performer. That's the trick - picking the ones with that potential out from the run of the mill handicappers (Poquelin being a good example of a top handicapper who's never been good enough at the very highest level).
yes Poquelin never looked like a Grade 1 horse but Medermit has always had class since he was a novice including an excellent second in a Supreme Novice. Alan King admitted he ballsed up last year and should have run in the 2 and a half mile race instead of the Arkle. Based on that Spinal Form he may well have won or gone close in that race
Bland 82 cracking good write up....
Have to say am in the great endeavour camp but the race isn't cutting up how I'd like it too and thus has held me back from having a decent bet on him...its so competitive and thus I don't see a whole lot of edge from a punting prospective....rubi light should be favourite and I think he will improve on last years running when a mere inexperienced 6 year old...I like him a lot and respect him...the others are the normal faces but are all capable on there day but don't appeal punting wise...a horrible race...
Have to say am in the great endeavour camp but the race isn't cutting up how I'd like it too and thus has held me back from having a decent bet on him...its so competitive and thus I don't see a whole lot of edge from a punting prospective....rubi light should be favourite and I think he will improve on last years running when a mere inexperienced 6 year old...I like him a lot and respect him...the others are the normal faces but are all capable on there day but don't appeal punting wise...a horrible race...
its a lovely race Harry! Haha, I'm in the Great Endeavour camp too, backed him before Xmas. I can't have Rubi Light though, his progress has plateaued and he really needs soft ground to be at his best whilst GE and Medermit want good ground. I don't see any reason why he should be shorter than either of them
i was mainly only picking on poquelin really over his last couple runs in the race, just to clarify
Poqelin has been a expensive horse to follow at the festival, three times he's got beaten at 3-1 or under there
Well if Albertas turns up in good form i expect him to beat GE as he did with Poquelin.imo he should be one of those that should be mentioned in any write up about the race,especially as he has won the last 2 runnings of the race really well.Horse deserves that imo.
Still,i find myself sticking up for this horse every year,and every year he delivers for me.Its good though cos hes always a good price.
Ive thanked the Poquelin backers the last couple of years,maybe this year i will be thanking the Rubi Light,Noble Prince and GE backers.
Then again age may catch up with him,although his run before the setback was pretty impressive.
Still,i find myself sticking up for this horse every year,and every year he delivers for me.Its good though cos hes always a good price.
Ive thanked the Poquelin backers the last couple of years,maybe this year i will be thanking the Rubi Light,Noble Prince and GE backers.
Then again age may catch up with him,although his run before the setback was pretty impressive.
Budd good points there pal...agree about albertas run but because of his problem earlier in the season that slightly puts me off...on song he will take some beating...
judo slightly disagree about rubi light think he has looked as good if not better this year...he destroyed sizing although admittedly on his favoured ground then for me the run may have come a tad to soon for him at christmas after dismissing joncol again on soft...you have to remember he ran a top race last year beaten only 3 lengths and for a 6 year old was a fair performance...agree if the race was run on soft his chance would be enhanced but would also say because of last years run you cannot dismiss his chances as he handled the ground ok that day...
judo slightly disagree about rubi light think he has looked as good if not better this year...he destroyed sizing although admittedly on his favoured ground then for me the run may have come a tad to soon for him at christmas after dismissing joncol again on soft...you have to remember he ran a top race last year beaten only 3 lengths and for a 6 year old was a fair performance...agree if the race was run on soft his chance would be enhanced but would also say because of last years run you cannot dismiss his chances as he handled the ground ok that day...
I could argue with you all day about Rubi Light - I simply don't think on good ground he will have any more chance than several other runners. The race he beat (well when he fell) Sizing Europe was totally pedestrian and de Bromhead said Sizing Europe never went a yard at all so I will be ignoring that form. According to RPR he has not improved at all in his last 4 runs (167, 164, 162, 166) and that does not indicate improvement. His trainer also says he needs soft...
I am not dismissing him, I am saying he is half the price of horses who have at least a good if not better chances. In fact I have 14s and 16s which means I get both Medermit and Great Endeavour running for me at the same odds as Rubi Light
I am not dismissing him, I am saying he is half the price of horses who have at least a good if not better chances. In fact I have 14s and 16s which means I get both Medermit and Great Endeavour running for me at the same odds as Rubi Light
Ye that is fair - suppose I just like him...likeable sort... I have always liked the great one for this but think this is getting more and more competitive by the day...glad I don't steam in like I used to as would of slammed great endeavour by now...still might though...might just see if he gets the easy lead and take 9 on him...
don't think you will see 9, if all is well I reckon there will be a plunge
Depends judo if they all turn up which seems likely I'd say...like i say thats why i haven't played yet...but after murphy scuppered my biggest bet at the meet last year I need to see how he jumps him off especially if the field is 14-15+
I had horses with the Pipes for years and so I sort of know how they operate - reckon there will be big money on if they get the green light
Yes you are right it will be backed...but kind of think I will be able to back at the price 14's for a little while with the field looking like it does and if it cuts up. I will be happy to take 10 on him if the field comes down in size...
agree with everything you said budd, he had his setback last year too and was still too good. I feel that the horse doesn't really get the credit he deserves sometime but that may be just me...
Hes never got the credit mate,every year since his RSA year hes been available at big odds on here,and i have been lucky enough to take them,hes probably won me more money than any other horse to be honest.
Funnily enough his price now is holding up fairly well considering his setback and not being seen since Oct,so i think people are a bit more aware of him - taken them long enough!!
He turns up on the day and the grounds ok he will be single figures,or should be!!
Funnily enough his price now is holding up fairly well considering his setback and not being seen since Oct,so i think people are a bit more aware of him - taken them long enough!!
He turns up on the day and the grounds ok he will be single figures,or should be!!
Don't think AR run at Aintree was that good to be honest, he didn't beat Peter Bowens horse by much saying that he is a very good horse in march but I would find it hard to back an 11 year old coming back after injury. Kauto Stone doesn't seem to be on many peoples list do people not rate his second in the tingle creek?
yeh,Kauto Stone is interesting,but something keeps stopping me from backing him.He runs Saturday so may need to get in before then if you fancy him.
I can see mccoy deserting albertas run to ride noble prince
judo- dont how u say u cant have rubi light, i think hes nailed on for this, he was only beaten 3l last year by albertas, had he not blundered 3 out wud of been alot closer, he clearly improved since last year festival, alberta's year older, rubi light will prove that he's top class, his form with sizing is solid, just hope ground isnt to fast like last yr, but even so ain t got nowt to make up
Albertas is so lightly raced these days, I find the fact that he's a year older rather less than compelling.
Its all about getting him there Glossy,if they do and its decent going Albertas should run his race.
Denman how can you say any horse is nailed on for this...most competitive race I've known for years with about 10 horses rated within 5lbs of each other....
i may have to eat my words, but i think rubi light will prove to be a class act, i think he'll win a gold cup in time, if the ground isnt to fast i cudnt have nething else in the race
we shall see what happens but I just don't rate the horse and think he is under priced
it's all about interpretation and clearly myself and Denman have entirely opposing interpretations of Rubi Light - he might yet prove me wrong and fair play if he does
For the final time, I think the form is over rated - especially the race with Sizing Europe in it which I think has zero significance as there would have been any numbers of horses that could have beaten SE that day - and in his trainers own words he needs soft ground which he is very unlikely to get at Cheltenham. Yes he ran well enough in the race last year but this years race is much stronger than last years and there are horses in it that really produce their best form on good ground
As for winning a Gold Cup, well I am afraid there is almost zero chance of that because it was proven he doesn't even stay 3 miles in the race Synchronised won at Xmas and he will be kept to 2.5 mile races
Not knocking the horse, just giving my assessment of chances as accurately as I can - we will see which proves more accurate in a month
it's all about interpretation and clearly myself and Denman have entirely opposing interpretations of Rubi Light - he might yet prove me wrong and fair play if he does
For the final time, I think the form is over rated - especially the race with Sizing Europe in it which I think has zero significance as there would have been any numbers of horses that could have beaten SE that day - and in his trainers own words he needs soft ground which he is very unlikely to get at Cheltenham. Yes he ran well enough in the race last year but this years race is much stronger than last years and there are horses in it that really produce their best form on good ground
As for winning a Gold Cup, well I am afraid there is almost zero chance of that because it was proven he doesn't even stay 3 miles in the race Synchronised won at Xmas and he will be kept to 2.5 mile races
Not knocking the horse, just giving my assessment of chances as accurately as I can - we will see which proves more accurate in a month
Perhaps denman meant the Haldon Gold Cup judo?
Denman,This is an open race mate,and imo not wise to rule too many out at this stage.
RL is not for me at the prices,but i do think hes one of a fair few that COULD win the race.
He was ok on decent ground last year,and whilst this looks a better race this year,he may well put in a better performance this year with another year of experience.I would not write him off at all and can understand people touting him,especially if they have nice odds.
RL is not for me at the prices,but i do think hes one of a fair few that COULD win the race.
He was ok on decent ground last year,and whilst this looks a better race this year,he may well put in a better performance this year with another year of experience.I would not write him off at all and can understand people touting him,especially if they have nice odds.
Interesting to see how Riverside Theatre gets on at Ascot on Saturday,has bags of potential but will he come back the same horse,will have to be sharp enough to beat kauto stone and co.
Is he a flat track horse?
His form would suggest he is, Ascot has an uphill finish but doesn't have undulations like Cheltenham. Like l said in my opening piece, he's a very difficult horse to **** in my opinion.
His form would suggest he is, Ascot has an uphill finish but doesn't have undulations like Cheltenham. Like l said in my opening piece, he's a very difficult horse to **** in my opinion.
I have one major problem in assessing this race, and Harry in particular will laugh about this!
Somersby!
How do you rate him in the context of this race? He ran very well in a Supreme and finished less than a length behind Sizing Europe in his Arkle, so it is hard to say he doesn't act at the track. For me, it would be a similar way of looking at Medermit in terms of acting at the course - neither give the impression it is their favourite, but both have run very good races here.
So, for all the Medermit fans in particular, is there not a concern that Somersby beat him by 9l over 2m3f earlier in the season off level weights? It ties in with Budd's points I guess, in that Medmermit has since improved his rating but in handicap company (albeit excellent company). I suspect he has improved for the step up in trip but there is something I find hard to swallow about what would be relatively sudden and significant improvement in a horse that has been battle hardened in a way that most improvers usually haven't.
I find it hard to think he has the class of Somersby, and that puts me off him. Somersby, as we all know, seems to love tanking through a race only to usually uproot a fence at a crucial point and then find little before plugging on late. To my eye, this is usually what Medermit does as well, which is another issue I have with that one.
I agree with the general views that this might just be a race that throws up a future star, and on that basis I do have maximum respect for Rubi Light, who as well as running a blinder last year, actually had a pretty torrid passage after the third last. That said, I just get the feeling that he won't have conditions quite right and I also have a feeling that the last two year's races might not have been as good as they looked at the time.
Very interested to see how Riverside Theatre goes at the weekend as I do think he could be very smart, while Great Endeavour can certainly make his presence felt if he gets into a rhythm. Nightmare race!
Somersby!
How do you rate him in the context of this race? He ran very well in a Supreme and finished less than a length behind Sizing Europe in his Arkle, so it is hard to say he doesn't act at the track. For me, it would be a similar way of looking at Medermit in terms of acting at the course - neither give the impression it is their favourite, but both have run very good races here.
So, for all the Medermit fans in particular, is there not a concern that Somersby beat him by 9l over 2m3f earlier in the season off level weights? It ties in with Budd's points I guess, in that Medmermit has since improved his rating but in handicap company (albeit excellent company). I suspect he has improved for the step up in trip but there is something I find hard to swallow about what would be relatively sudden and significant improvement in a horse that has been battle hardened in a way that most improvers usually haven't.
I find it hard to think he has the class of Somersby, and that puts me off him. Somersby, as we all know, seems to love tanking through a race only to usually uproot a fence at a crucial point and then find little before plugging on late. To my eye, this is usually what Medermit does as well, which is another issue I have with that one.
I agree with the general views that this might just be a race that throws up a future star, and on that basis I do have maximum respect for Rubi Light, who as well as running a blinder last year, actually had a pretty torrid passage after the third last. That said, I just get the feeling that he won't have conditions quite right and I also have a feeling that the last two year's races might not have been as good as they looked at the time.
Very interested to see how Riverside Theatre goes at the weekend as I do think he could be very smart, while Great Endeavour can certainly make his presence felt if he gets into a rhythm. Nightmare race!
i think forpadydeplasterer is slipping under the radar at a big price,
Rubi Light now taking his rightful place at the head of the market.
Interested to see how Riverside Theatre runs today, but Rubi will take a hell of a lot of beating.
Still some good rivals to show their hand, but he looks the most likely winner to me at this stage
Interested to see how Riverside Theatre runs today, but Rubi will take a hell of a lot of beating.
Still some good rivals to show their hand, but he looks the most likely winner to me at this stage
i feel weve just watched the winner win well in ireland just now, although i wont be deserting my fancy AR he just loves cheltenham...
that was an egg and spoon race and has no bearing really, nothing changed as it told us nothing we didn't already know
now we get to see if one of these can really step up
now we get to see if one of these can really step up
that was an egg and spoon race and has no bearing really, nothing changed as it told us nothing we didn't already know
now we get to see if one of these can really step up
now we get to see if one of these can really step up
good performance from RT,and Medermit ran well also,both will be players i think,although i would be against RT on the track,dontb think it suits him as much.Certainly hope Med is!!
Think we can forget Kauto Stone.
Think we can forget Kauto Stone.
Medermit ran a lot better than I thought he would, although as I said on the Medermit thread, he normally always runs into 1 that is too good (although that bump with Tatanen didn't do him any good).
Riverside was at home today, so will be interesting to see how he performs at Cheltenham, although I think if you aren't on at 10/1, I wouldn't want to take 9/2 because of the question marks over the course.
Rubi Light may have not been running against much, but it showed us that over 2m4 he is Ireland's outstanding horse (and I include Noble Prince in that).
That would have put him bob on for Cheltenham, and if the word soft appears in the going, he is a major player with another years experience with loads of improvement left (imo Jodo)
Riverside was at home today, so will be interesting to see how he performs at Cheltenham, although I think if you aren't on at 10/1, I wouldn't want to take 9/2 because of the question marks over the course.
Rubi Light may have not been running against much, but it showed us that over 2m4 he is Ireland's outstanding horse (and I include Noble Prince in that).
That would have put him bob on for Cheltenham, and if the word soft appears in the going, he is a major player with another years experience with loads of improvement left (imo Jodo)
Kauto Stone was very disappointed, you'd have thought the rain would have helped his chances. I was impressed by Medermit, especially with his recovery from the error as the race was hotting up. Is he definitely running in the Ryanair?
whatever, he was still too short with plenty of rivals still to run
"pun run
17 Feb 12 19:43 Joined: 28 Apr 09 | Topic/replies: 60 | Blogger: pun run's blog
i think forpadydeplasterer is slipping under the radar at a big price"
I think exactly the same squire...but there must be doubts about his participation.
I think he's crying out for a trip nowadays, and he's just banging his head against a brick wall in trying to compete with Sizing Europe & Big Zeb over 2M - it's a complete waste of time.
Conversely, I think Somersby is well worth his place in the QM instead of The Ryanair, as a fast run 2M over Festival C&D will bring out the best in him.
I know it was two seasons ago but he made Sizing Europe pull out all the stops in The Arkle.
17 Feb 12 19:43 Joined: 28 Apr 09 | Topic/replies: 60 | Blogger: pun run's blog
i think forpadydeplasterer is slipping under the radar at a big price"
I think exactly the same squire...but there must be doubts about his participation.
I think he's crying out for a trip nowadays, and he's just banging his head against a brick wall in trying to compete with Sizing Europe & Big Zeb over 2M - it's a complete waste of time.
Conversely, I think Somersby is well worth his place in the QM instead of The Ryanair, as a fast run 2M over Festival C&D will bring out the best in him.
I know it was two seasons ago but he made Sizing Europe pull out all the stops in The Arkle.
Riverside will not win the Ryanair... Think he is better left handed, and doesn't like Cheltenham imo.
Bertie will take the WORLD of beating
Bertie will take the WORLD of beating
Thought medermit ran better than the bare form there...have to say I think they should have a stab at the gold cup with him? I'm not pocket talking as have no investment in ryannair...but think he is worth a shot over further...anyone else think this??
Anyways marked himself down as a proper grade 1 horse in the making today as riverside theatre is a proper grade 1 horse at this trip round ascot and kempton...I wouldn't be disheartened if you are on for the ryannair as long as this race doesn't leave its mark that is...but don't think it will he is tough...if he can just travel a tad better he will have chances at cheltenham but I for one think he maybe hitting his flat spots just because they are going to fast for him at these trips...cannot wait to see him go further now...
Anyways marked himself down as a proper grade 1 horse in the making today as riverside theatre is a proper grade 1 horse at this trip round ascot and kempton...I wouldn't be disheartened if you are on for the ryannair as long as this race doesn't leave its mark that is...but don't think it will he is tough...if he can just travel a tad better he will have chances at cheltenham but I for one think he maybe hitting his flat spots just because they are going to fast for him at these trips...cannot wait to see him go further now...
Tom just in reply to your somerslay story....
As you know I have never liked the rechid creature but just think he is an ascot horse (somersby) and wouldn't take his medermit form to literally myself...
Somersby who we know just loves to battle
won't like this race as it looks like it is going to get very competitive at some point and that is when you get ready on that pink button...really looking forward to getting the cash back at cheltenham as he will travel and go short in the run or at least I for one hope he travels well...can't wait for the rechid creature to hit the wall...if he wins I will be officially bankrupt as will be laying it short for my maximum...
As you know I have never liked the rechid creature but just think he is an ascot horse (somersby) and wouldn't take his medermit form to literally myself...
Somersby who we know just loves to battle
won't like this race as it looks like it is going to get very competitive at some point and that is when you get ready on that pink button...really looking forward to getting the cash back at cheltenham as he will travel and go short in the run or at least I for one hope he travels well...can't wait for the rechid creature to hit the wall...if he wins I will be officially bankrupt as will be laying it short for my maximum...
They have been thinking about further and King has stated he would like to try him over further,but he was entered yesterday over 3m,and decided to run today.
I guess that means the Ryanair,but you never know.
I guess that means the Ryanair,but you never know.
rubi light rightfully favourite for this race now, think hes gonna be a class act
Hes one of a few that could win the race Denman,not sure he should be fav myself,but hes gonna be thereabouts.
Hard to say who should be fav imo
Hard to say who should be fav imo
My shortlist for this race now is Rubi Light, Riverside Theatre and Albertas Run
Riverside didn't run too badly in his arkle. Hr was staying on very well at the end over a trip which has proved to be too short for him.
Alan King says he hasn't decided which race Medermit will run in
Well done those who flagged up Medermit - he is clearly an improver. He looked to me likle he might well benefit from the longer trip, though it would be a big risk to try that in the Gold Cup for thew first time when he must be a player in the Ryanair.
I think it's hard not to be impressed by Riverside Theatre. I also have the impression he prefers a right handed flat track, but that could just be talk. He must also be a player for the Ryanair if he can reproduce close to that form and he's a proven Grade 1 animal (this race twice, 2nd in a King George).
The two of them had some decent horses miles behind today. The Ryanair still looks the most interesting race of the Festival to me at this stage.
I think it's hard not to be impressed by Riverside Theatre. I also have the impression he prefers a right handed flat track, but that could just be talk. He must also be a player for the Ryanair if he can reproduce close to that form and he's a proven Grade 1 animal (this race twice, 2nd in a King George).
The two of them had some decent horses miles behind today. The Ryanair still looks the most interesting race of the Festival to me at this stage.
all this Rubi Light deserves to be fav stuff is pocket talk
beating Chicago Grey who is a staying handicapper on does not make you any more likely than you were before the race
add in the fact that you now have two potential challengers in Riverside and Medermit who had something to prove 9RT that he was recovered from injury and Medermit that he could run well in Grade 1 company) and Rubi Light is less likely to win the Ryan Air this evening than he was this morning
beating Chicago Grey who is a staying handicapper on does not make you any more likely than you were before the race
add in the fact that you now have two potential challengers in Riverside and Medermit who had something to prove 9RT that he was recovered from injury and Medermit that he could run well in Grade 1 company) and Rubi Light is less likely to win the Ryan Air this evening than he was this morning
PS - great horsemanship from Choc today to stay on Medermit down the back!
Haha
Rubi Light has proven that he has improvd stones in the last 18 months and is still a young horse.
He won the Red Mills last year and then ran third in the ryanair, where he travelled like the best horse in the race. Only a bad blunder halted him and he ran on again and was closing at the line. This year he has had the same prep, hes a year older and has improved further. He has travelled all over his rivals in Ireland this year, and just got outstayed by the Gold Cup 4th fav.
Medermit on the other hand couldn't beat Riverside today after he'd been out for a year. How do you think he'd fair against a more fit Riverside, added to a returnimg Albertas and rubi and noble Prince?
He's never won round Cheltenham and always runs into one too good.
Rubi Light has proven that he has improvd stones in the last 18 months and is still a young horse.
He won the Red Mills last year and then ran third in the ryanair, where he travelled like the best horse in the race. Only a bad blunder halted him and he ran on again and was closing at the line. This year he has had the same prep, hes a year older and has improved further. He has travelled all over his rivals in Ireland this year, and just got outstayed by the Gold Cup 4th fav.
Medermit on the other hand couldn't beat Riverside today after he'd been out for a year. How do you think he'd fair against a more fit Riverside, added to a returnimg Albertas and rubi and noble Prince?
He's never won round Cheltenham and always runs into one too good.
Has Rubi Light won round Cheltenham? In fact, has he won outside Ireland? Has he won on any going with the word "good" in it? He has lots and lots to prove and he faces a whole bunch of horses who are at least as good if not better than him on good ground.
I know you are in love with the horse and that's alright. Just get a bit realistic - he is in with a shout but he is far from certain and is far more likely to lose than win as they all are in this race
I know you are in love with the horse and that's alright. Just get a bit realistic - he is in with a shout but he is far from certain and is far more likely to lose than win as they all are in this race
0/1 reads a lot better than 0/7.
I only backed him for the first time today - I took the 7's before his Gowran run. Not like I'm on at massive prices and ready to win a fortune. Also, he was only clipped in by about a point today - its not like his price has halved for beating Chicago Grey.
I actually think he should be joint fav, along with Riverside Theatre.
When you look at the Ryanair, they all have weaknesses.
Rubi Light - prefers soft ground
Riverside - question marks about the track and injury record
Noble Prince - only 1 win since last years Jewson
Albertas - been off the track since about October
Somersby - will he run? Is Ascot his track?
Medermit - never won at Cheltenham and is he good enough
Great Endeavour - is he a good handicapper or a Grade 1 horse.
Nobody is saying Rubi Light is miles ahead of anyone else; 5/1 the field still shows how wide open the race is. I'm not saying Rubi Light will hose up, I'm haven't even said he is going to win; but I think he should be at the head of the market based on this year's runs.
I only backed him for the first time today - I took the 7's before his Gowran run. Not like I'm on at massive prices and ready to win a fortune. Also, he was only clipped in by about a point today - its not like his price has halved for beating Chicago Grey.
I actually think he should be joint fav, along with Riverside Theatre.
When you look at the Ryanair, they all have weaknesses.
Rubi Light - prefers soft ground
Riverside - question marks about the track and injury record
Noble Prince - only 1 win since last years Jewson
Albertas - been off the track since about October
Somersby - will he run? Is Ascot his track?
Medermit - never won at Cheltenham and is he good enough
Great Endeavour - is he a good handicapper or a Grade 1 horse.
Nobody is saying Rubi Light is miles ahead of anyone else; 5/1 the field still shows how wide open the race is. I'm not saying Rubi Light will hose up, I'm haven't even said he is going to win; but I think he should be at the head of the market based on this year's runs.
I have heard so many people say "he is past the post" and "look how much he has improved" that I am frankly sick of it and I deffo don't think he should be at the head of the market for running round Irish tracks on horrible soft going that he ain't gonna get. Never even won on good to soft let alone good
judo he wud have won last years race if he hadnt made awful mistake 3 out, on fast ground,(that doesnt suit) u really need to do ur research if ur gonna spout sh it, he was travelling all over everything in the race, the bad jump cost him was beaten 3l, hes improved since then , anyways some people just cant be educated!
Before today there were 17 horses within 10 lbs of top rated on RPR and the 18th has won an Arkle and come second in a Champion Chase. Riverside Theatre is now bound to make it 18.
Make no mistake, this is a hellishly competetive race.
Make no mistake, this is a hellishly competetive race.
Well I for one haven't said that he's past the post.
When I said earlier in this thread he should be fav, that was before Riverside ran today, and I now acknowledge Riverside should be up there at the top with him. I've said before that Riverside is one of my fav horse in training and will take all the beating in the Ryanair.
In terms of his improvement, it is there for all to see. He was getting stuffed by Cousin Vinny over hurdles, and in November 2010 he was winning a handicap chase off 130. Today he was running of 164, and will probably go up a little bit again. Whatever way you look at it that is huge improvement.
As for the good ground, there isn't much choice other than to run on soft ground in Ireland. Those that come over to the festival may only get it once a year.
When I said earlier in this thread he should be fav, that was before Riverside ran today, and I now acknowledge Riverside should be up there at the top with him. I've said before that Riverside is one of my fav horse in training and will take all the beating in the Ryanair.
In terms of his improvement, it is there for all to see. He was getting stuffed by Cousin Vinny over hurdles, and in November 2010 he was winning a handicap chase off 130. Today he was running of 164, and will probably go up a little bit again. Whatever way you look at it that is huge improvement.
As for the good ground, there isn't much choice other than to run on soft ground in Ireland. Those that come over to the festival may only get it once a year.
Very classy comments wellchief, and fact-based too.
I see no evidence that Rubi Light needs to have soft ground to perform and his Cheltenham record must, at worst, be as good as Medermit's. Nobody has been saying the former is already home and hosed, so not sure what exactly judo is getting sick of here.
Can anyone answer my earlier Medermit question?
Is nobody bothered how readily Somersby brushed him aside at Ascot earlier this year? Am sure he has improved for the step up in trip, but both he and Somersby seem to run great races at Ascot and both run well without appearing to be in love with Cheltenham (Medermit second in a Supreme but Somersby second in an Arkle). Just seems a little hard to believe he has improved to quite the extent he would need to win a Ryanair given that he was plenty experienced and battle-hardened already when they met earlier this term.
Am not knocking Medermit, and do expect him to run well in the Ryanair. Just feel there are plenty more likely winners, of which Rubi Light and Riverside Theatre are two. The former has not run on good ground often enough to say he doesn't act on it (and he ran a darned good race on it last year) while the latter is much improved from the horse that disappointed in the Arkle a two seasons ago. No real reason to think he is a flat track bully - he jumps well, stays well, quickens and finds for pressure. All those characteristics point to him being fully effective on any track.
I see no evidence that Rubi Light needs to have soft ground to perform and his Cheltenham record must, at worst, be as good as Medermit's. Nobody has been saying the former is already home and hosed, so not sure what exactly judo is getting sick of here.
Can anyone answer my earlier Medermit question?
Is nobody bothered how readily Somersby brushed him aside at Ascot earlier this year? Am sure he has improved for the step up in trip, but both he and Somersby seem to run great races at Ascot and both run well without appearing to be in love with Cheltenham (Medermit second in a Supreme but Somersby second in an Arkle). Just seems a little hard to believe he has improved to quite the extent he would need to win a Ryanair given that he was plenty experienced and battle-hardened already when they met earlier this term.
Am not knocking Medermit, and do expect him to run well in the Ryanair. Just feel there are plenty more likely winners, of which Rubi Light and Riverside Theatre are two. The former has not run on good ground often enough to say he doesn't act on it (and he ran a darned good race on it last year) while the latter is much improved from the horse that disappointed in the Arkle a two seasons ago. No real reason to think he is a flat track bully - he jumps well, stays well, quickens and finds for pressure. All those characteristics point to him being fully effective on any track.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539