Cheltenham Festival
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Started to look at this race in more depth now as the contenders for the race are sorting themselves out. l like to use stats to help guide me towards my selection (not everyones cup of tea l accept) and if have listed positive and negatives below along with my thoughts on the contenders.
+ Ran well in the Paddy Power and or December Gold Cup
+ Contested the King George
+ Proven at this trip and further
- Lack of solid Cheltenham form
- Unfancied in the betting
- Top rated on BHA figures (Albertas Run & Poquelin at this stage)
- Peterborough Chase winner (Gauvin)
- Rated lower than 156
Contenders;
Rubi Light - rated 164 and was 3l 3rd in the race last year in what was effectively his novice season (won only chase start before last season in France in 09). He has only once finished outside of the first 3 in 10 chase starts and has won 5 of them. He faded late on after making most in the Lexus when outstayed by the winner but holding a dour stayer (QDLR) back in third. That was on decent ground and provided we don't get rattling fast ground he should be ok (was fine on good ground last year) and the step back in trip from 3m should be right up his street especially when you consider he'll be ridden very prominently he will be able to kick on when he wants to make use of his stamina. He runs in the Red Mills chase on Saturday and probably should be winning that which will set him up nicely for this.
Great Endeavour - rated 157 and won the Byrne Group handicap over this C&D 2 years ago before falling in the Spinal Research Handicap on the first day last year. He probably would of been placed in that, even after been given a poor ride (missed the break badly and then rushed up past every other horse to take the lead). He easily won the Paddy Power earlier in the season beating Quantatitiveeasing by 7l and that horse then went onto win the December Gold Cup on his next start. He moved like the best horse at the weights in the Hennessey Gold Cup and was still on the bridle 2out and still looked a big danger after the last but he just failed to see out the trip. Timmy Murphy said afterwards that he didn't get home in the last 2f (Hennessey is 3m 2f). lt is probably best to ignore his run in the December Gold Cup behind Quantatitiveeasing as a) it came not long after the Hennessey so could of still been feeling the effects of that race, b) he almost knocked the 10th fence out of the ground and c) he was badly hampered 3out by his stable mate Swing Bill and was then left to come home in his own time. He's been given plenty of time to get over those 3 quick(ish) runs at the start of the season and will come into the race a fresh horse. He had a progressive profile before his last run and he's only had 16 career starts in total and could still be progressive when we see him again.
Medermit - rated 163 and has excellent Cheltenham form, albeit not winning here. He was 3/4l behind Quantatitiveeasing in the December Gold Cup off 157, had finished 4th in last years Arkle (running on after getting outpaced) and he was a very close 2nd in Go Native's Supreme. From 7 runs at Cheltenham he has been placed 5 times and the two times he wasn't he finished 4th & 5th. He has plenty of good form at around the Ryanair trip but he has never tried 3m before. Alan King said after his last run that he would to try him over 3m though and he is entered in the Denman Chase at Newbury on Friday so his profile for this race could be boosted if he runs well and seems to get the trip in that race.
Noble Prince - rated 163 and won the Jewson last season over 1f shorter, breaking the track record (l'm not sure how long the record had stood and l'm too sure how many chases are ran over 20f at Cheltenham). He did get outpaced turning for home in that race before staying on strongly up the hill under McCoys driving (unlikely to ride this year with Albertas Run in the race). He has tried 3m twice as a hurdler and looked not to stay the trip both times (travelling strongly and fading before/after the last flight on both occasions). He has been trained for this race all year and a bit like last year he is coming into the race off the back of finishing 2nd in his previous couple of runs. That said, it would of been nice to see him get his head in front last time out where he was beaten by Blazing Tempo who's trainer, Willie Mullins, thinks she has nowhere near enough quality to win this race and she is priced at 33/1 in the market.
Others to consider;
Riverside Theatre - he's a really hard horse for me to summerise as we haven't seen him this season so far (runs at Ascot on Saturday) and his best form is on flatter tracks. He has however finished 2nd in a King George, jockey felt he stayed the trip, and that one piece of form is probably better than anything else in the race. He didn't look to handle the undulations at Cheltenham on the one occcasions he's ran here (fast finishing 5th in Sizing Europes Arkle) and on that basis l think l will bypass him.
Kauto Stone - my main worry with him is that he regularly jumped right handed in France and so far Nicholls has only ran him on right handed tracks. He's entered at the weekend at Ascot, again a right handed track. With this in mind l can't back him for this race at the current prices until l have seen him go left handed.
Somersby - lt looks to be becoming more and more obvious that Ascot is this horses track. l'm not 100% sure what he actually achevied when beating Finnians Rainbow there last time out, will have a better idea after the Champion Chase on Wednesday, but his run in the Peterborough was disappointing. Again at the current prices l think there are better alternatives to him.
lf pushed for a selection at this stage l think l would probably side with Great Endeavour given his Festival record and he's lightly raced and was progressive before his last run.
+ Ran well in the Paddy Power and or December Gold Cup
+ Contested the King George
+ Proven at this trip and further
- Lack of solid Cheltenham form
- Unfancied in the betting
- Top rated on BHA figures (Albertas Run & Poquelin at this stage)
- Peterborough Chase winner (Gauvin)
- Rated lower than 156
Contenders;
Rubi Light - rated 164 and was 3l 3rd in the race last year in what was effectively his novice season (won only chase start before last season in France in 09). He has only once finished outside of the first 3 in 10 chase starts and has won 5 of them. He faded late on after making most in the Lexus when outstayed by the winner but holding a dour stayer (QDLR) back in third. That was on decent ground and provided we don't get rattling fast ground he should be ok (was fine on good ground last year) and the step back in trip from 3m should be right up his street especially when you consider he'll be ridden very prominently he will be able to kick on when he wants to make use of his stamina. He runs in the Red Mills chase on Saturday and probably should be winning that which will set him up nicely for this.
Great Endeavour - rated 157 and won the Byrne Group handicap over this C&D 2 years ago before falling in the Spinal Research Handicap on the first day last year. He probably would of been placed in that, even after been given a poor ride (missed the break badly and then rushed up past every other horse to take the lead). He easily won the Paddy Power earlier in the season beating Quantatitiveeasing by 7l and that horse then went onto win the December Gold Cup on his next start. He moved like the best horse at the weights in the Hennessey Gold Cup and was still on the bridle 2out and still looked a big danger after the last but he just failed to see out the trip. Timmy Murphy said afterwards that he didn't get home in the last 2f (Hennessey is 3m 2f). lt is probably best to ignore his run in the December Gold Cup behind Quantatitiveeasing as a) it came not long after the Hennessey so could of still been feeling the effects of that race, b) he almost knocked the 10th fence out of the ground and c) he was badly hampered 3out by his stable mate Swing Bill and was then left to come home in his own time. He's been given plenty of time to get over those 3 quick(ish) runs at the start of the season and will come into the race a fresh horse. He had a progressive profile before his last run and he's only had 16 career starts in total and could still be progressive when we see him again.
Medermit - rated 163 and has excellent Cheltenham form, albeit not winning here. He was 3/4l behind Quantatitiveeasing in the December Gold Cup off 157, had finished 4th in last years Arkle (running on after getting outpaced) and he was a very close 2nd in Go Native's Supreme. From 7 runs at Cheltenham he has been placed 5 times and the two times he wasn't he finished 4th & 5th. He has plenty of good form at around the Ryanair trip but he has never tried 3m before. Alan King said after his last run that he would to try him over 3m though and he is entered in the Denman Chase at Newbury on Friday so his profile for this race could be boosted if he runs well and seems to get the trip in that race.
Noble Prince - rated 163 and won the Jewson last season over 1f shorter, breaking the track record (l'm not sure how long the record had stood and l'm too sure how many chases are ran over 20f at Cheltenham). He did get outpaced turning for home in that race before staying on strongly up the hill under McCoys driving (unlikely to ride this year with Albertas Run in the race). He has tried 3m twice as a hurdler and looked not to stay the trip both times (travelling strongly and fading before/after the last flight on both occasions). He has been trained for this race all year and a bit like last year he is coming into the race off the back of finishing 2nd in his previous couple of runs. That said, it would of been nice to see him get his head in front last time out where he was beaten by Blazing Tempo who's trainer, Willie Mullins, thinks she has nowhere near enough quality to win this race and she is priced at 33/1 in the market.
Others to consider;
Riverside Theatre - he's a really hard horse for me to summerise as we haven't seen him this season so far (runs at Ascot on Saturday) and his best form is on flatter tracks. He has however finished 2nd in a King George, jockey felt he stayed the trip, and that one piece of form is probably better than anything else in the race. He didn't look to handle the undulations at Cheltenham on the one occcasions he's ran here (fast finishing 5th in Sizing Europes Arkle) and on that basis l think l will bypass him.
Kauto Stone - my main worry with him is that he regularly jumped right handed in France and so far Nicholls has only ran him on right handed tracks. He's entered at the weekend at Ascot, again a right handed track. With this in mind l can't back him for this race at the current prices until l have seen him go left handed.
Somersby - lt looks to be becoming more and more obvious that Ascot is this horses track. l'm not 100% sure what he actually achevied when beating Finnians Rainbow there last time out, will have a better idea after the Champion Chase on Wednesday, but his run in the Peterborough was disappointing. Again at the current prices l think there are better alternatives to him.
lf pushed for a selection at this stage l think l would probably side with Great Endeavour given his Festival record and he's lightly raced and was progressive before his last run.
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wheres Albertas??
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THE RYANAIR CHASE
Class 1, Grade 1, 2m 5f, £260,000 Total Prize Fund. 2.40pm, Cheltenham, Thursday, March 15, 2012. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 4FP12-1 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 11 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O'Neill 52-FU111 APT APPROACH (IRE) 9 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 2143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 211-1U3P CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 8 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 4-U1231 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 7 Mark Boothright Martin Keighley 2/2P-2334 FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) 10 Goat Racing Syndicate Tom Cooper IRE 1/01651- FRENCH OPERA 9 Judy Wilson & Martin Landau Nicky Henderson 520-1F1F GAUVAIN (GER) 10 Jared Sullivan & Simon Brown Nick Williams 2F6-140 GREAT ENDEAVOUR (IRE) 8 David Johnson David Pipe 21/460-05 I'M SO LUCKY 10 Sheila Brookhouse David Pipe 5331442 I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (IRE) 10 Jo Tracey David Pipe 111/1/00/- JACK THE GIANT (IRE) 10 Hanbury Syndicate Nicky Henderson (5)42P-5P KALAHARI KING (FR) 11 Julie Morgan Ferdy Murphy 1103-12 KAUTO STONE (FR) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls 16/1155-6 LITTLE JOSH (IRE) 10 Tony Bloom Nigel Twiston-Davies 51124-00 MAGNANIMITY (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Dessie Hughes IRE F/U563U-F MAHOGANY BLAZE (FR) 10 Lorna Berryman Nigel Twiston-Davies 142-132 MEDERMIT (FR) 8 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership Alan King 21-F1222 NOBLE PRINCE (GER) 8 Des Sharkey Paul Nolan IRE 5141-5U2 POQUELIN (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls 1FF-F111 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 8 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 2113-12 REALT DUBH (IRE) 8 Derek Sharkey Noel Meade IRE 15F/121- RIVERSIDE THEATRE 8 Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership Nicky Henderson 0-512F5 ROI DU MEE (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 213-312 RUBI LIGHT (FR) 7 Bill Hennessy Robbie Hennessy IRE 53-12241 SOMERSBY (IRE) 8 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight 504-5060 TARTAK (FR) 9 Power Panels Electrical Systems Ltd Tom George 10-U1P23 TRANQUIL SEA (IRE) 10 Dermot Cox/Nelius Hayes Edward O'Grady IRE 21-16526 WISHFULL THINKING 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 29 entries remain after February 14 scratchings deadline 10 Irish-trained THE FOLLOWING 9 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: AERIAL (FR), FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE), HELL'S BAY (FR), JESSIES DREAM (IRE), MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE), RARE BOB (IRE), RIVAGE D'OR (FR), THE NIGHTINGALE (FR), WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (IRE) |
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Have to agree with buddeliea. To not even discuss AR as a contender somewhat detracts from the post imo. Won the last two runnings and 3 festival wins out of 5 appearances is surely worthy of a mention, even if not picked.
Personally I see him as a cracking e/w bet though looking like potentially a stronger race in depth this year |
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Doesn't mention Kalahari King of Forpadydeplasterer either, both of whom have excellent Festival records.
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I really like the OP - thinking along the same lines
As I have already said several times, I have backed Great Endeavour and Medermit for this race for very similar reasons to those given I think that race won by Quantitativeeasing is going to prove outstanding and I will be backing all oif the principals on their next few starts (Med, GE, QE, RV) |
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He has left out last years winner though,and no reason why he should not figure again imo.
I like that form as well Judo,but it is handicap form for a Group 1. Their is other form around at higher level. |
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Presumably ditched AR because he is officially the joint best horse in the race, his negative stat above?
Have to say as someone who uses stats to help profile horses, and has done for decades, that sort of illogical use of them drives me nuts. race speThe race has only been going a few years, yes you can look for early race specific trends like key races and whether 2nd season chasers are favoured, as there are in many similar G1 chases, but to be throwing out the best horses, on the basis of a small sample of runnings to date, has no validity whatsoever in my view. |
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Incidentally, I believe this is a race where stats can be unhelpful. The race is new (only run 7 times) and in it's short life it's changed imo. In the first few years (when it was a Grade 2) it was almost a conditions race rerun of the Nov and Dec handicaps over 2 1/2 miles and was won by horses with decent form from those handicaps. In the last 3 renewals (as a Grade 1), it's been won by genuine Grade 1 horses (as were many of the places horses). I appreciate Imperial was winning his first Grade 1 following a win in the Paddy Power Gold cup that season, but he was ultra-progressive and won an outstanding Gold Cup 12 months later. My view is therefore to be careful of the handicappers and look for a horse that is, or is about to become, a true Grade 1 performer.
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Budd, Group 1? It's not the Derby mate! It's a Grade 1 but below championship class, the handicap race was a Class 1 Grade 3, hardly a giant step up.
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yeh,i see that now,well each to their own.
Would have thought last years race would have a bearing,particularly when it has the winner of the last 2 runnings,and a pretty good winner at that. |
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I agree Budd, he must be a big player. He's been unlikley to coincide with Kauto/Denman or he'd be considered a superstar.
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Yes thieves i do realise that,but just saying.
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Poquelin was considered worthy of being fav for this race on the strength of his handicap wins at Chelt,but AR put paid to him twice now.
It does make a difference imo. |
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Didn't mean it's not a point to consider budd, just that it isn't impossible with the right horse. Medermit has solid form in graded conditions races as well as that handicap , so would see him as a more likely contender than Great Endeavour.
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I wasn't putting my faith in the Spinal research race due to trends
No, it is the collateral form and the speed ratings combined which make me think it is absolutely top class form irrespective of being a Grade 3. I think QE in particular can go on and become a really really good horse at 3 miles 2 furlong + From that Spinal Race you have Calgary Bay who has since won twice including the Skybet (Great Yorkshire)Chase and improved his RPR by 16lbs Then Tatenen and I'msingingtheblues who finished first and second at Ascot in a £50 grand handicap chase and both improved their RPRS by 9 to 11lbs... and there was a 10 length gap from Roudoudou Ville in 3rd to the 4th so I strongly believe you can seriously upgrade the first 3 home. Medermit carried 11 st 5lbs too which was a huge effort and I think his RPR of 164 underestimates him especially if you think how Calgary Bay improved on his next two starts - I certainly think Medermit is easily capable of RPRs in the 170s with a really strong run race. 16/1 looks huge The fact that the OP discusses the trends which support my form and ratings argument only fills me with more confidence as I hadn't done that work for the Ryan Air |
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Notice they have left Captain Chris in this. Hobbs stable tour interview in today's weekender said he was being prepared for the GC but might still go for the Ryanair! No idea when the actual interview took place and where the remarks fall in the timeline of what they have been saying but they haven't forfeited...
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I agree judo, I rate that race very highly based on both time and form.
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albertas e/w has to be a guarantee, love him to bits! i would not back a handicapper in grade 1.
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and he's been taken out of gold cup so at least we know he's going again.
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let's put it this way, if Medermit wins the Ascot chase on Saturday he will be in single figures for the Ryan Air
I notice that I'msingingtheblues is also entered and if he runs that will give a good level to the form as he will run an RPR of 157 +/- the margin of error |
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funny that Long Run ran in a handicap before winning a king george and a Gold Cup
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l left Albertas Run out due to the fact that he is 11 and will be going there without a run after an injury so l can't really profile the horse. l have backed hi
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l left Albertas Run out due to the fact that he is 11 and will be going there without a run after an injury so l can't really profile the horse. l have backed him in the last 2 runnings of this race but we just don't know how much is left after his injury.
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dont remember anyone saying it cant happen Judo.
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Him being 11 is my reason for not putting on my short list too bland, thanks for the clarification.
Also his only run this season was in a handicap... |
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Judo - If Medermit steps up to Grade 1 form then he's got a good chance. There's no reason he shouldn't, he won a Grade 1 as a novice and as you say his handicap form is strong an he's progressive. My feeling stil is that he will have to improve more to win the Ryanair.
Long Run is not a great example having won Grade 1's in France and in the Feltham before running in that handicap. That race, as it turned out, appeared to be a needed seasonal debut and an inaequate trip. But you can't really argue he ran to the same level of form in the CGC and KG as in the PP - he had to step up a lot to win the two Grade 1s. |
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bloke a couple posts before me posted "wouldn't back a handicapper in a Grade 1" Budd which is why I mentioned it and now I think of it...
Rhinestone Cowboy Coral Cup to Aintree Hurdle Make a Stand Tote Gold Trophy to Champion Hurdle Denman Hennessey to Gold Cup... |
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imperial Commander!
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yes I think he will have to improve but I am predicting that he will because the form in the handicap is stronger than most people think
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Call Equiname won the Victor Chandler when it was a handicap then won the QMCC
I bet there are loads of them if you thought about it |
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Its just trying to make a point Stront,thats all.
We can all come up with examples to show our case as i did with Poquelin and Albertas. I do think the Spinal form could be relevant to the Ryanair this season,and i have backed Medermit,although that was after Exeter,but i prefer the Grade 1 form. Thats my choice. |
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Deep Sensation beaten in the VC by a novice, won Champion Chase next time out.
Flakey Dove, schweppes 2nd won champion hurdle Rooster Booster, loads of handicaps before stepping up |
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Thieves, as I said above, Imperial was winning his first Grade 1 following a win in the Paddy Power Gold cup that season, but he was ultra-progressive and won an outstanding Gold Cup 12 months later. He was therefore a horse that was about to become a true Grade 1 performer. That's the trick - picking the ones with that potential out from the run of the mill handicappers (Poquelin being a good example of a top handicapper who's never been good enough at the very highest level).
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yes Poquelin never looked like a Grade 1 horse but Medermit has always had class since he was a novice including an excellent second in a Supreme Novice. Alan King admitted he ballsed up last year and should have run in the 2 and a half mile race instead of the Arkle. Based on that Spinal Form he may well have won or gone close in that race
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Bland 82 cracking good write up....
Have to say am in the great endeavour camp but the race isn't cutting up how I'd like it too and thus has held me back from having a decent bet on him...its so competitive and thus I don't see a whole lot of edge from a punting prospective....rubi light should be favourite and I think he will improve on last years running when a mere inexperienced 6 year old...I like him a lot and respect him...the others are the normal faces but are all capable on there day but don't appeal punting wise...a horrible race... |
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its a lovely race Harry! Haha, I'm in the Great Endeavour camp too, backed him before Xmas. I can't have Rubi Light though, his progress has plateaued and he really needs soft ground to be at his best whilst GE and Medermit want good ground. I don't see any reason why he should be shorter than either of them
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i was mainly only picking on poquelin really over his last couple runs in the race, just to clarify
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Poqelin has been a expensive horse to follow at the festival, three times he's got beaten at 3-1 or under there
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Well if Albertas turns up in good form i expect him to beat GE as he did with Poquelin.imo he should be one of those that should be mentioned in any write up about the race,especially as he has won the last 2 runnings of the race really well.Horse deserves that imo.
Still,i find myself sticking up for this horse every year,and every year he delivers for me.Its good though cos hes always a good price. Ive thanked the Poquelin backers the last couple of years,maybe this year i will be thanking the Rubi Light,Noble Prince and GE backers. Then again age may catch up with him,although his run before the setback was pretty impressive. |