Cheltenham Festival
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they all wont win which ones look dodgy because at the min alot of them look to good
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they do all look very good. people say "they cant all win" but why not? sizing, quevega, BB, huricane all look like good things.
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Personally I'd put Scotsirish and Sprinter Sacre in that camp giggsy.
One or two could well lose - the hard part is predicting which ones! Some of the longer prices favs must be vulnerable - Fingal Bay, Long Run, Grands Crus look beatable. Steps to Freedom (for example) is a very weak fav on form. |
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i dont think you can say anything is a good thing in that x country race. look what happened in the last one. too unpredictable.
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One could make an arguement for/against every horse either one of us have named. It's just a matter of opinion.
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stick to the hurdle races less chance of bad mistakes r something falling in front and bringing urs down when travelling so well which has happened to me on many occasion lol
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i'd say noble prince is a dodgy fav of the ryanair.
He's only won once since Cheltenham, the form of the Jewson is awful and the Ryanair is normally won by 2.5-3 milers. Oh and by the way, i've backed him in a double with the fly! But if the fly wins i'll lay the sh!t out of him |
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Good point Well - it's looking like a very competetive race indeed.
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Boring point I suppose but these same old cliches do need to be listened to.
Races always look straightforward beforehand, but the likes of Big Buck's and Sizing Europe were decent priced when first winning the big Festival races their talent now clearly shows they deserved to. Point is, Finian's Rainbow could yet run a lot higher than he has before, as could Oscar Whisky. Those are two very good horses with bundles of class, so it's silly to say they can't win their races this year. |
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good point tomdeane. The corridors of festival history are littered with the crumpled betting slips of beaten bankers. These horses have to turn up, stand up, get round, perform and hope that nothing else comes up with a career best. Laying every horse under 3/1 would be a profitable way to take on this festival imo. We will see shock winners.
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plenty of the favs/bankers get turned over at the festival,look down the years and there have been a lot of shock results ,what we have to remember is that every horse is spot on and trying for thier life and every race is run at a championship pace . so for the bridal horses who have looked impressive cruising around in small field slow run races this is something of a shock and not all are able to handle it ! hence the shock results .
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All of which is fine, and prefectly true, but the trick is not saying some favourites will get beat, it's working out which ones will get beat...
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o.k stront ,well out of the 4 championship races and at the price i would be against sizing euro he and long run look the most vulnerable of the favs in those races imo and of the 2 i would be laying sizing euro .
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Foyles, fair play for standing up. Can I ask why you'd be against sizing?
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Why lay sizing? He stuffed the 2nd fav last time out and the 3rd fav was beaten by a horse that is thought not quick enough to run in the race. Sizing wins.
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I'd lay Hurricane Fly, probably will. And I'll oppose Quevega and Sprinter Sacre. I'll probably back Sizing Europe and Long Run and I havent made my mind up about Big Buck's yet. I dont want to back him at the price but I cant see what beats him.
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Mary - similar question for you - why would you be against Quevega?
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I would just rather take a small each way chance at something at a decent price than back a very short favourite.
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Dont get me wrong, I think it wins and I wont be laying it.
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Ah, OK, I misread your post, sorry.
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cant find anything to beat hf, quvega or big bucks 9/2 with sporting odds. but as always one will get beat!! we have 4 shorties - (Above and sizing) no more than three will win. i think sizing gets beat - dont ask me by what!
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I am very, very seldom a layer, so more about which ones I take on, which ones I watch, and which ones I back.
Hurricane Fly - watch. Think he'll win but injury concerns never completely go away with this horse, and if he were to run 6-7lb below his best, he could be caught napping. Quevega - back. At 4/5 or bigger I think she's a licence to print money. Sizing Europe - take on. Love the horse and totally prepared for him to win well. That said, I love Finian's Rainbow and believe with the right tactics he is a very big threat. Big Buck's - take on. Purely because I believe Oscar Whisky is a very good horse and by backing him each/way you more than cover your stake if he is placed, which seems nailed on to me. Plus, if he truly stays, he has the class to win if BB is only a tiny bit below his best. Long Run - take on. Kauto Star has a massive chance, providing the ground is not tacky. Plus, SWC is always a worry and the horse does not jump well. |
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I think Sizing is by an absolute mile the fav I'd most like to back in one of the big four races. Everyone was saying that last year's CH was amazing and he was super impressive, but they didn't go quickly at all, and if they do this year then I think something might just be coming up the hill better than him.
I'd be all for opposing Sizing just because of the short price, but at the moment I just can't think who he can be opposed with. I think Big Zeb is a solid each way bet but I doubt he'll be able to reverse the form with Sizing, and Finian's had his limitations exposed at Ascot. Big Buck's is obviously a machine, but I can't be backing a 1/2 shot, especially as I think this will be his hardest test yet. I'll probably just try to thieve some each way value with Mikael D'Haguenet and/or Thousand Stars. The Gold Cup is also a market which doesn't really interest me at the moment, and I really hope a serious challenger comes out of either the Ascot Chase or the Denman to shake things up, as I again would like to be opposing the front two, but it's hard to find legitimate contenders. The main one in my mind at the moment is Weird Al, who doesn't have too much to find with Long Run on their Betfair Chase run, and I think that race might have come too soon for WA, who is definitely best fresh. I also think Quevega is a banker, but I'll be opposing Sprinter and Grands Crus. Hopefully I can find the horse to beat Grands Crus because the RSA has been my lucky race recently. |
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My instincts are to take them all on because that is what my 3 decades of experience is telling me to do. That said, I am not likely to be taking on Quevega as I can't get remotely interested in the mares race and have yet to have a bet in it. That goes double for some of the other races, most particularly the Gymkhana, so won't be looking for one to beat, whatever it was, Scotsirish? Can't remember ever having a bet in the bumper. Can't remember my last bet in the hunter chase either. I should also leave the 4m race, Kim Muir, conditional jockeys race and both juvenile races alone as I am rubbish in them, I don't always manage to do so though.
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Agree with most of dtamutants post above.
SE the strongest fav of the big four. HF opposable dt his fragility and serious opposition in Granduet/Zarkander/Binocular. BB very solid but certainly fancy Thousand Stars ew and Oscar Whisky a credible threat. LR vulnerable with jumping issues and jockey. Think Wierd Al the value, All over Grands Crus if he turns up. SE looks solid. Big Zeb on downgrade, Finians Rainbow wont get up the hill, all others way below champion chase class. Personally will be taking on Sprinter Sacre also, undulating track and hustle and bustle of the Arkle will find him out. Peddlers Cross the value imo. Quevega unopposable unless Voler la Vadette turns up, if so VLV to reverse the placings from two seasons ago! |
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yeah stront bit late with my reply. a few reasons ,sizing has a great chance but i cant take his form last time with big zeb as set in stone ,these 2 seem to take it in turns to beat each other and i think big zeb is better going left handed and i really dont think sizing is 12 lengths better than zeb and at the prices big zeb is a better bet e.way than siz euro win imo. plus zebs connections didnt look too concerned after ther race ,they are not running scared !
also we have a geniune contender in finians who b.gerahty will have a good idea where he stands with big zeb and sizing he may have a lot of improvement and as a younger lightly raced horse he could make an impact . i may be wrong but taking on sizing around the 6/4 /7/4 mark( may be a fair bit shorter if the irish have agood tuesday ) wont do me too much harm if he wins . |
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Ive got big 4 in lucky fifteen put on at sexyish prices, SE 5/1.HF 9/4, bb 4/5 & LR 5/2. So hoping they all go in.
At present SE I think bomb proof. Think LR is the dodgy one - or Kauto Star solid. Think LR needs to step up this Friday |
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just checked the betting sizing 11/8 on here,a bit too short for me ! gonna start the laying process early i think .
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not saying he wont win but sprinter sacre will be one i will be laying in the arkle ,especially if he shortens after friday .he looks too short for me on the back of a win at kempton beating a below par peddlers who lost his chance after the mistake at the first ,
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WPM has already said Thousand Stars will be going for the Champion Hurdle .. unless he has changed his mind ?
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why Thousand Stars is going for the champion is beyound me be a player on summer form in the world hurdle.
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maybe ruby has had a word with him and steered him away from the race.
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Selections
Date Race Horse SP Position Estimated Betfair Odds £100 win 16 Mar 2004 2:40 Cheltenham THISTHATANDTOTHER 5-2 F/16 3.6 -100 16 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham ROOSTER BOOSTER 11-8 2/14 2.48 -200 17 Mar 2004 2:00 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 7-4 2/15 2.88 -300 17 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 11-8 3/10 2.48 -400 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham AZERTYUIOP 15-8 1/8 3.0 -198 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 5-6 F/8 1.90 -298 18 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 8-11 2/10 1.78 -398 18 Mar 2004 3:15 Cheltenham BEST MATE 8-11 1/10 1.78 -320 18 Mar 2004 5:10 Cheltenham IRIS ROYAL 11-4 2/7 3.9 -420 18 Mar 2004 5:10 Cheltenham LA LANDIERE 5-2 6/7 3.6 -520 15 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham WAR OF ATTRITION 11-4 7/19 4.0 -620 16 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham AZERTYUIOP 2-1 3/8 3.2 -720 16 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 6-4 1/8 2.60 -560 17 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 7-4 P/12 2.86 -660 17 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 6-5 2/12 2.28 -760 18 Mar 2005 2:35 Cheltenham BREWSTER 9-4 3/18 3.4 -860 14 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham SWEET WAKE 5-2 5/20 3.8 -960 14 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham BRAVE INCA 7-4 1/18 2.84 -776 15 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham DENMAN 11-10 2/17 2.16 -876 15 Mar 2006 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 2-1 F/12 3.2 -976 15 Mar 2006 5:20 Cheltenham EQUUS MAXIMUS 5-2 12/23 3.8 -1076 17 Mar 2006 2:35 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 1-1 1/19 2.05 -971 17 Mar 2006 4:00 Cheltenham HARBOUR PILOT 11-4 P/24 4.1 -1071 13 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham AMARETTO ROSE 2-1 3/22 3.2 -1171 13 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham DETROIT CITY 6-4 6/10 2.61 -1271 13 Mar 2007 4:40 Cheltenham HEADS ONTHE GROUND 5-2 1/16 3.8 -987 14 Mar 2007 2:00 Cheltenham ARAN CONCERTO 5-2 5/15 3.8 -1087 14 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham DENMAN 6-5 1/17 2.29 -958 14 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham WELL CHIEF 1-1 F/10 2.08 -1058 15 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham MONET'S GARDEN 7-4 4/9 2.88 -1158 15 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 2-1 F/14 3.2 -1258 15 Mar 2007 4:40 Cheltenham GUNGADU 2-1 F/19 3.2 -1358 16 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham WICHITA LINEMAN 11-8 1/20 2.48 -1210 16 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 5-4 1/18 2.34 -1075 16 Mar 2007 4:00 Cheltenham WHYSO MAYO 2-1 2/24 3.2 -1175 16 Mar 2007 4:40 Cheltenham SAINTSAIRE 5-2 6/23 3.8 -1275 11 Mar 2008 2:35 Cheltenham NOLAND 7-4 3/14 3.1 -1375 11 Mar 2008 3:15 Cheltenham SIZING EUROPE 2-1 14/15 3.3 -1475 11 Mar 2008 4:40 Cheltenham WONDERKID 5-2 6/16 4.0 -1575 11 Mar 2008 5:20 Cheltenham ASHKAZAR 15-8 2/22 3.0 -1675 11 Mar 2008 5:20 Cheltenham RIVER LIANE 11-4 12/22 4.4 -1775 13 Mar 2008 2:20 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 5-2 2/8 3.6 -1875 13 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 11-8 1/17 2.52 -1723 13 Mar 2008 4:05 Cheltenham DON'T PUSH IT 5-2 F/22 4.4 -1823 14 Mar 2008 2:15 Cheltenham FRANCHOEK 1-1 2/14 2.14 -1923 14 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham DENMAN 9-4 1/12 3.2 -1698 14 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 10-11 2/12 2.01 -1798 10 Mar 2009 1:30 Cheltenham COUSIN VINNY 9-4 5/20 3.6 -1898 10 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham BINOCULAR 6-4 3/23 2.80 -1998 10 Mar 2009 4:00 Cheltenham L'AMI 7-4 2/16 2.76 -2098 10 Mar 2009 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 2-1 1/21 3.2 -1873 11 Mar 2009 2:05 Cheltenham MIKAEL D'HAGUENET 5-2 1/14 3.7 -1604 11 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham COOLDINE 9-4 1/15 3.9 -1315 11 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-11 1/12 1.41 -1274 11 Mar 2009 4:40 Cheltenham ALEXANDER SEVERUS 5-2 4/22 4.1 -1374 11 Mar 2009 5:15 Cheltenham RITE OF PASSAGE 5-2 3/24 3.7 -1474 12 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 4-5 2/10 1.85 -1574 12 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KASBAH BLISS 10-11 4/14 2.03 -1674 13 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 7-4 1/16 2.88 -1487 16 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham DUNGUIB 4-5 3/18 1.81 -1587 16 Mar 2010 2:05 Cheltenham CAPTAIN CEE BEE 5-2 8/12 3.7 -1687 16 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham GO NATIVE 11-4 10/12 4.5 -1787 16 Mar 2010 4:00 Cheltenham GARDE CHAMPETRE 7-4 5/16 2.99 -1887 16 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 6-4 1/17 2.66 -1721 16 Mar 2010 4:40 Cheltenham VOLER LA VEDETTE 9-4 3/17 3.6 -1821 17 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham LONG RUN 11-4 3/9 4.0 -1921 17 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham PUNCHESTOWNS 2-1 5/9 3.3 -2021 17 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-5 4/9 1.81 -2121 18 Mar 2010 2:05 Cheltenham ALFIE SHERRIN 11-4 12/24 4.0 -2221 18 Mar 2010 2:40 Cheltenham POQUELIN 11-4 2/13 3.9 -2321 18 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 5-6 1/14 1.96 -2224 19 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 8-11 F/11 1.93 -2324 15 Mar 2011 1:30 Cheltenham CUE CARD 7-4 4/15 2.88 -2424 15 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham MEDERMIT 11-4 4/10 4.0 -2524 15 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham HURRICANE FLY 11-4 1/11 4.0 -2228 15 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 5-6 1/14 1.90 -2139 16 Mar 2011 2:05 Cheltenham SO YOUNG 2-1 3/12 3.2 -2239 16 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham TIME FOR RUPERT 7-4 5/12 2.88 -2339 16 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 2-1 8/11 3.2 -2439 17 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham POQUELIN 2-1 4/11 3.2 -2539 17 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 10-11 1/13 1.98 -2441 18 Mar 2011 2:40 Cheltenham BOBS WORTH 15-8 1/18 3.0 -2239 Totals Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds All Selections 82 22 26.8% 72.7% |
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All the above 11-4 and under
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Who asked you? lol. Only joking. That's a terrible stat for the favs. What about for horses 6/4 and under?
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Similar table in another thread but going back an extra year, http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/28903515/hurrician-fly-big-bucks-quevega
Conclusion was to oppose all horses under 3/1 unless trained by Nicholls or Mullins! 2003-2011 under 3/1 all trainers 94 runners 29 winners level £1 stake -17.76 Top trainers; Nicholls 23 runners 9 winners -£2.32 Mullins 9 runners 6 winners +8.83 Henderson 6 runners 1 winner -3.2 M or D Pipe 6 runners 1 winner -3 jonjo 6 runners 2 winners -1.62 everyone else 44 runners 10 winners -16.52 everyone except Mullins and Nicholls 62 runners 14 winners -24.27 everyone except Mullins 85 runenrs 23 winners -26.59 |
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11-8 and under
Selections Date Race Horse SP Position Estimated Betfair Odds £100 win 16 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham ROOSTER BOOSTER 11-8 2/14 2.48 -100 17 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham OUR VIC 11-8 3/10 2.48 -200 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 5-6 F/8 1.90 -300 18 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 8-11 2/10 1.78 -400 18 Mar 2004 3:15 Cheltenham BEST MATE 8-11 1/10 1.78 -321 17 Mar 2005 3:15 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 6-5 2/12 2.28 -421 15 Mar 2006 2:00 Cheltenham DENMAN 11-10 2/17 2.16 -521 17 Mar 2006 2:35 Cheltenham BLACK JACK KETCHUM 1-1 1/19 2.05 -416 14 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham DENMAN 6-5 1/17 2.29 -287 14 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham WELL CHIEF 1-1 F/10 2.08 -387 16 Mar 2007 2:35 Cheltenham WICHITA LINEMAN 11-8 1/20 2.48 -239 16 Mar 2007 3:15 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 5-4 1/18 2.34 -105 13 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham INGLIS DREVER 11-8 1/17 2.52 46 14 Mar 2008 2:15 Cheltenham FRANCHOEK 1-1 2/14 2.14 -53 14 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 10-11 2/12 2.01 -153 11 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-11 1/12 1.41 -112 12 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 4-5 2/10 1.85 -212 12 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KASBAH BLISS 10-11 4/14 2.03 -312 16 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham DUNGUIB 4-5 3/18 1.81 -412 17 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-5 4/9 1.81 -512 18 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 5-6 1/14 1.96 -415 19 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 8-11 F/11 1.93 -515 15 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 5-6 1/14 1.90 -426 17 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 10-11 1/13 1.98 -328 Totals Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds All Selections 24 10 41.7% 86.3% |
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odds on favs --
Selections Date Race Horse SP Position Estimated Betfair Odds £100 win 17 Mar 2004 3:20 Cheltenham MOSCOW FLYER 5-6 F/8 1.90 -100 18 Mar 2004 2:35 Cheltenham BARACOUDA 8-11 2/10 1.78 -200 18 Mar 2004 3:15 Cheltenham BEST MATE 8-11 1/10 1.78 -121 14 Mar 2008 3:30 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 10-11 2/12 2.01 -221 11 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-11 1/12 1.41 -180 12 Mar 2009 2:40 Cheltenham VOY POR USTEDES 4-5 2/10 1.85 -280 12 Mar 2009 3:20 Cheltenham KASBAH BLISS 10-11 4/14 2.03 -380 16 Mar 2010 1:30 Cheltenham DUNGUIB 4-5 3/18 1.81 -480 17 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham MASTER MINDED 4-5 4/9 1.81 -580 18 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 5-6 1/14 1.96 -484 19 Mar 2010 3:20 Cheltenham KAUTO STAR 8-11 F/11 1.93 -584 15 Mar 2011 4:40 Cheltenham QUEVEGA 5-6 1/14 1.90 -494 17 Mar 2011 3:20 Cheltenham BIG BUCK'S 10-11 1/13 1.98 -397 Totals Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds All Selections 13 5 38.5% 69.5% |
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after that run today long run has to be on the list only a great jump at the last or i think he whould have been in trouble ?????? what do u think
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after that run today long run has to be on the list only a great jump at the last or i think he whould have been in trouble ?????? what do u think
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