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Just getting geared up for March....not long now!
Contributions from others very welcome indeed!
Contributions from others very welcome indeed!
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Thank you ever so much, done such big spreadsheets and the thought that the RPR was wrong on them was too much to handle but it's all good.
Soooo - regarding the OR, and as an example. Raptor on the horse pop up bit as a Chase OR of 128 yet on the RP and Sportinglife card it is 140. I should use 140?
Soooo - regarding the OR, and as an example. Raptor on the horse pop up bit as a Chase OR of 128 yet on the RP and Sportinglife card it is 140. I should use 140?
ah Raptor has been upgraded because he is trained in Ireland. When looking at handicaps you need to use the one on the racecard, or even better the one on Postdata when that is available
Yeah, just figured that.
What is confusing me now though is that RP and Sportinglife have the odd horse on a different OR on their cards.
Niceonefrankie on RP card has an OR of 129 whereas it is 124 on sportinglife, though his weight would make you lean towards the 129 rating? And this is a GB horse.
What is confusing me now though is that RP and Sportinglife have the odd horse on a different OR on their cards.
Niceonefrankie on RP card has an OR of 129 whereas it is 124 on sportinglife, though his weight would make you lean towards the 129 rating? And this is a GB horse.
right then
Niceonefrankie is rated 124 but he has won a race so is set to carry a 5lb penalty so will race off 129
Niceonefrankie is rated 124 but he has won a race so is set to carry a 5lb penalty so will race off 129
so if the stat simply says 'officially rated' you should use the office rating rather then what he will actually race off or the figure which he will race from?
Sorry about all the questions
Sorry about all the questions
no problem at all
now that depends on the question.
If you require the answer to "Officially rated at least X" then use the OR as given on the pop up
If it says "ran off at least XYZ" then use the run off mark on the card
ok?
now that depends on the question.
If you require the answer to "Officially rated at least X" then use the OR as given on the pop up
If it says "ran off at least XYZ" then use the run off mark on the card
ok?
Ironically its irrelevant for this horse but important moving forward.
It relates to the Novices' H'Cap Chase and is: 'Officially rated 132-139'. For the JLT is is 'Officially Rated 129-143'.
124 it is then and thats also what's in the Weekender Chelts Paper, as well as sportinglife card. Only RP card which has 129 which as you said is the adjusted OR in comparison to the weight he's racing off.
Sportinglife appear to have adjusted for all the irish horses in all races other than the XC where RP Card has sizing oz at 145 whereas sporting life have left at 123. The bizarre thing is that the weekender, which gives the same OR as sporting life for all other races, agrees with RP on this one!
It relates to the Novices' H'Cap Chase and is: 'Officially rated 132-139'. For the JLT is is 'Officially Rated 129-143'.
124 it is then and thats also what's in the Weekender Chelts Paper, as well as sportinglife card. Only RP card which has 129 which as you said is the adjusted OR in comparison to the weight he's racing off.
Sportinglife appear to have adjusted for all the irish horses in all races other than the XC where RP Card has sizing oz at 145 whereas sporting life have left at 123. The bizarre thing is that the weekender, which gives the same OR as sporting life for all other races, agrees with RP on this one!
there is always a logical answer if you look and think clearly - must be confusing using several sources, no? I stick to the racing post for all that info
Yeah, just wasnt seeing the 5x tab next to the horse!
Only been into racing for 2/3yrs and have fallen in love but trying to know everything is tricky.
Went for first time last year and the highlight of my yr now surrounds being there this Tues and Wed!
Only been into racing for 2/3yrs and have fallen in love but trying to know everything is tricky.
Went for first time last year and the highlight of my yr now surrounds being there this Tues and Wed!
i remember being like that, wanting to know everything - be aware of information overload and pay attention to what is important to know is my advice
if you really want to learn something useful for the flat, get a copy of Roy Dodds 1-2-3 Turf Handicap Manual - invaluable lessons in there
if you really want to learn something useful for the flat, get a copy of Roy Dodds 1-2-3 Turf Handicap Manual - invaluable lessons in there
Tuesday March 13 2012
Cheltenham 14:40
JLT Specialty Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
5yo plus, 3m 110y, Class 1
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured.
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 or above
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in all 3 h’cap chases over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 5 wins over fences
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or below, last 4 winners were rated 142 or 143.
7 of 10 winners had posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers that had run in previous festival: 1 placed in this and other 13th in previous Gold Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle, other had not run in a better than a class 3)
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
I think this might be a tough one to crack as there are some decent horses higher up the weights, in good form (Quant & Hold On Julio) whose chances are seemingly diminished by them having to carry too much weight.
Most of the key trends are given above, but I've used a select number of them (the top ones) to try and whittle down the field to a manageable number:
Form Horse Age
12-021 Quantitativeeasing94 7
5-2514 Time For Rupert45 8
07-134 Walkon25 7
2-3151 Cannington Brook24 8
2P1-56 Noland52 11
2P/133 Cappa Bleu24 10
13232 Hector´s Choice17 8
111-11 Hold On Julio66 9
F/52PP Mon Mome24 12
83134 Consigliere17 9
1PP-21 Zarrafakt52 8
531113 Our Mick25 6
P2F-60 Arbor Supreme90 10
24-874 Magnanimity17 8
61-B03 Matuhi72 9
454511 Leanne9 5x 10
5F94U2 Tullamore Dew24 10
1-P3U0 Divers31 8
2P-12P Mossley25 6
P13077 Tharawaat17 7
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
2U5/5- The Package493 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
703PF Shakervilz12 9
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
62-P35 Mount Oscar17 13
1P/1-4 Summery Justice115 8
9301U Charingworth28 9
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7
U5-54P Major Malarkey24 9
P-PF75 Alfie Sherrin24 9
2-1345 Bottman45 7
PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8
221123 Definite Dawn16 8
41332F Pentiffic10 9
15PF-4 Marescsou13 7
412PP Free World121 10
21144 Runshan72 12
28P37 Ballyvesey18 7
03PP6 Le Burf30 11
Step 1
Eliminate horses not finishing in first 3 last time out (excuse fallers or unseatings) - this takes out a sizeable proportion of the field, and kind of guarantees that your shortlist contains horses who are at least in some sort of decent form.
Form Horse Age
12-021 Quantitativeeasing94 7
2-3151 Cannington Brook24 8
2P/133 Cappa Bleu24 10
Mar-36 Hector´s Choice17 8
111-11 Hold On Julio66 9
1PP-21 Zarrafakt52 8
Feb-54 Our Mick25 6
61-B03 Matuhi72 9
May-44 Leanne9 5x 10
5F94U2 Tullamore Dew24 10
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
9301U Charingworth28 9
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7
PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8
221123 Definite Dawn16 8
41332F Pentiffic10 9
Step 2
Eliminate horses set to carry 11 stone and more - they tend to struggle to win such a competitive handicap as this, and tend to be the horses that the handicapper perhaps 'has his eye on'! This already leaves a pretty small field to choose from.
Form Horse Age
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
9301U Charingworth28 9
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7
PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8
5-2505 Definite Dawn16 8
41332F Pentiffic10 9
Step 3
Rule out horses with an OR of below 127
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
9301U Charingworth28 9
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7
PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8
Step 4
Eliminate horses not having won over 3m+ as their stamina must be assured for a race of this nature.
Form Horse Age
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9 10-11
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8 10-10
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7 10-09
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8 10-04
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7 10-03
Step 5
Eliminate horses that have not won between 2 and 5 wins over fences - ideally the horse should have shown good enough form to have been able to win a couple of chases, but not enough to be exposed, and consequently penalised by the handicapper. You're really looking for something with a bit in hand of official figures.
Form Horse Age
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
I kind of drew a breath at this point, and looked at the shortlist. I was going to apply another stat about the horse needing to have won a class 3 chase or better. I then re-considered, as this would have ruled out the 2 horses I fancied from this shortlist, namely Blenheim Brook and Baile Anrai. I'm taking a bit of a punt here, as I'm going to make an assumption that Baile Anrai was still travelling pretty comfortably in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot before coming to grief three out, and if this assumption proves to be correct, then it might point to the chances of a big run here. I'm prepared to pay a little to find out. He was also the only horse to make a race of it with Fingal Bay in the Persian War Novices Hurdle earlier in the season, so there must be a fair level of ability in there somewhere.
Secondly, Blenheim Brook looks a nice consistent sort, and although he's done most of his winning in small fields, he does have some decent form tied in with Lie Forritt (who was touted elsewhere on here for this race). Again, there's not a huge amount of confidence behind the selection, but I think he might have at least a fair each way shout.
Fruity O'Rooney ran a nice race in defeat at Doncaster recently, though I'm wondering whether this might have taken a bit out of him. Respected nonetheless. I'm not so keen on Billie Magern as his recent form is a little less inspiring.
As mentioned earlier, these are more speculative than confident selections, and you could apply the stats / trends in a number of different ways, but the bets are:
Blenheim Brook (win & place) 18 & 5.3
Baile Anrai (win & place) 28 & 7.6
I'm not ruling out backing another on the day should either of these not take up the engagement.
Cheltenham 14:40
JLT Specialty Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
5yo plus, 3m 110y, Class 1
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out (6 won)
8 of 10 winners carried 10-5 to 10-13 and so are heavily favoured.
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 127 or above
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in all 3 h’cap chases over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 5 wins over fences
10 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 10
10 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or below, last 4 winners were rated 142 or 143.
7 of 10 winners had posted their highest chase RPR on last chase start
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers that had run in previous festival: 1 placed in this and other 13th in previous Gold Cup)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions finished in first 2 in a grade 1 hurdle, other had not run in a better than a class 3)
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a hurdle or chase worth 39K+
8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 8/1
I think this might be a tough one to crack as there are some decent horses higher up the weights, in good form (Quant & Hold On Julio) whose chances are seemingly diminished by them having to carry too much weight.
Most of the key trends are given above, but I've used a select number of them (the top ones) to try and whittle down the field to a manageable number:
Form Horse Age
12-021 Quantitativeeasing94 7
5-2514 Time For Rupert45 8
07-134 Walkon25 7
2-3151 Cannington Brook24 8
2P1-56 Noland52 11
2P/133 Cappa Bleu24 10
13232 Hector´s Choice17 8
111-11 Hold On Julio66 9
F/52PP Mon Mome24 12
83134 Consigliere17 9
1PP-21 Zarrafakt52 8
531113 Our Mick25 6
P2F-60 Arbor Supreme90 10
24-874 Magnanimity17 8
61-B03 Matuhi72 9
454511 Leanne9 5x 10
5F94U2 Tullamore Dew24 10
1-P3U0 Divers31 8
2P-12P Mossley25 6
P13077 Tharawaat17 7
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
2U5/5- The Package493 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
703PF Shakervilz12 9
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
62-P35 Mount Oscar17 13
1P/1-4 Summery Justice115 8
9301U Charingworth28 9
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7
U5-54P Major Malarkey24 9
P-PF75 Alfie Sherrin24 9
2-1345 Bottman45 7
PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8
221123 Definite Dawn16 8
41332F Pentiffic10 9
15PF-4 Marescsou13 7
412PP Free World121 10
21144 Runshan72 12
28P37 Ballyvesey18 7
03PP6 Le Burf30 11
Step 1
Eliminate horses not finishing in first 3 last time out (excuse fallers or unseatings) - this takes out a sizeable proportion of the field, and kind of guarantees that your shortlist contains horses who are at least in some sort of decent form.
Form Horse Age
12-021 Quantitativeeasing94 7
2-3151 Cannington Brook24 8
2P/133 Cappa Bleu24 10
Mar-36 Hector´s Choice17 8
111-11 Hold On Julio66 9
1PP-21 Zarrafakt52 8
Feb-54 Our Mick25 6
61-B03 Matuhi72 9
May-44 Leanne9 5x 10
5F94U2 Tullamore Dew24 10
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
9301U Charingworth28 9
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7
PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8
221123 Definite Dawn16 8
41332F Pentiffic10 9
Step 2
Eliminate horses set to carry 11 stone and more - they tend to struggle to win such a competitive handicap as this, and tend to be the horses that the handicapper perhaps 'has his eye on'! This already leaves a pretty small field to choose from.
Form Horse Age
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
9301U Charingworth28 9
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7
PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8
5-2505 Definite Dawn16 8
41332F Pentiffic10 9
Step 3
Rule out horses with an OR of below 127
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
9301U Charingworth28 9
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7
PF336F Riguez Dancer27 8
Step 4
Eliminate horses not having won over 3m+ as their stamina must be assured for a race of this nature.
Form Horse Age
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9 10-11
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8 10-10
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7 10-09
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8 10-04
F13P3 Golden Chieftain17 7 10-03
Step 5
Eliminate horses that have not won between 2 and 5 wins over fences - ideally the horse should have shown good enough form to have been able to win a couple of chases, but not enough to be exposed, and consequently penalised by the handicapper. You're really looking for something with a bit in hand of official figures.
Form Horse Age
1-6213 Fruity O´Rooney45 9
15PP3 Billie Magern45 8
222121 Blenheim Brook36 7
2F11F Baile Anrai24 8
I kind of drew a breath at this point, and looked at the shortlist. I was going to apply another stat about the horse needing to have won a class 3 chase or better. I then re-considered, as this would have ruled out the 2 horses I fancied from this shortlist, namely Blenheim Brook and Baile Anrai. I'm taking a bit of a punt here, as I'm going to make an assumption that Baile Anrai was still travelling pretty comfortably in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot before coming to grief three out, and if this assumption proves to be correct, then it might point to the chances of a big run here. I'm prepared to pay a little to find out. He was also the only horse to make a race of it with Fingal Bay in the Persian War Novices Hurdle earlier in the season, so there must be a fair level of ability in there somewhere.
Secondly, Blenheim Brook looks a nice consistent sort, and although he's done most of his winning in small fields, he does have some decent form tied in with Lie Forritt (who was touted elsewhere on here for this race). Again, there's not a huge amount of confidence behind the selection, but I think he might have at least a fair each way shout.
Fruity O'Rooney ran a nice race in defeat at Doncaster recently, though I'm wondering whether this might have taken a bit out of him. Respected nonetheless. I'm not so keen on Billie Magern as his recent form is a little less inspiring.
As mentioned earlier, these are more speculative than confident selections, and you could apply the stats / trends in a number of different ways, but the bets are:
Blenheim Brook (win & place) 18 & 5.3
Baile Anrai (win & place) 28 & 7.6
I'm not ruling out backing another on the day should either of these not take up the engagement.
JOCI
regarding your comments as to backing Boston Bob I had a call this morning from a good friend a Cheltenham fan who was at a preview evening last night where either the detitor or someone very high up at the Racing Post advised that Boston Bob would run in the Neptune, my friend said he spoke in a very authoritive manner, so be careful.
regarding your comments as to backing Boston Bob I had a call this morning from a good friend a Cheltenham fan who was at a preview evening last night where either the detitor or someone very high up at the Racing Post advised that Boston Bob would run in the Neptune, my friend said he spoke in a very authoritive manner, so be careful.
Hi JOCI mate
have spent the last few days going through the book and then looking at my ratings and prices. I have already backed some horses ante post and some did make it onto the list. Here's my selections for each race as I have noted them, horses in bold to be backed:
Supreme: Montbazon, Tetlami, Monksland (Neptune bound, Trifolium
Arkle: Sprinter Sacre
Champion Hurdle:Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar
JLT: Fruity O Rooney, Baile Anrai, Blenheim Brook, Quantitativeeasing (backed ante post)
QMCC: Sizing Europe
Triumph: Grumeti, Baby Mix
RSA: Sir des Champs, Join together, Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant
WH: Big Buck's
AB: Boston Bob Mount Ben Bulben, Brindisi Breeze
Neptune: Simonsig, Monksland
Ryan Air: Medermit (ante post 16/1), Great Endeavour (AP 14/1), Poquelin (16/1 now)
Gold Cup: Burton Port
That is as far as I got. Will be interested to see what you have come up with for your bets and for the remainder of the races
That is as
have spent the last few days going through the book and then looking at my ratings and prices. I have already backed some horses ante post and some did make it onto the list. Here's my selections for each race as I have noted them, horses in bold to be backed:
Supreme: Montbazon, Tetlami, Monksland (Neptune bound, Trifolium
Arkle: Sprinter Sacre
Champion Hurdle:Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Zarkandar
JLT: Fruity O Rooney, Baile Anrai, Blenheim Brook, Quantitativeeasing (backed ante post)
QMCC: Sizing Europe
Triumph: Grumeti, Baby Mix
RSA: Sir des Champs, Join together, Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant
WH: Big Buck's
AB: Boston Bob Mount Ben Bulben, Brindisi Breeze
Neptune: Simonsig, Monksland
Ryan Air: Medermit (ante post 16/1), Great Endeavour (AP 14/1), Poquelin (16/1 now)
Gold Cup: Burton Port
That is as far as I got. Will be interested to see what you have come up with for your bets and for the remainder of the races
That is as
ginger64 08 Mar 12 14:31
JOCI
regarding your comments as to backing Boston Bob I had a call this morning from a good friend a Cheltenham fan who was at a preview evening last night where either the detitor or someone very high up at the Racing Post advised that Boston Bob would run in the Neptune, my friend said he spoke in a very authoritive manner, so be careful.
Let's hope not as the money is aleady down at 8s for the Albert Bartlett. Suppose I could green out now and ri-invest profit when we know where he's going (but I'll probably just take the risk).
JOCI
regarding your comments as to backing Boston Bob I had a call this morning from a good friend a Cheltenham fan who was at a preview evening last night where either the detitor or someone very high up at the Racing Post advised that Boston Bob would run in the Neptune, my friend said he spoke in a very authoritive manner, so be careful.
Let's hope not as the money is aleady down at 8s for the Albert Bartlett. Suppose I could green out now and ri-invest profit when we know where he's going (but I'll probably just take the risk).
judorick - looks like we'll be having quite a few similar bets. 
Will be continuing with my updates later this evening then a big push on Saturday and Sunday as there are still quite alot of races I haven't looked at yet.
Will be continuing with my updates later this evening then a big push on Saturday and Sunday as there are still quite alot of races I haven't looked at yet.
joci club cracking thread have been reading with interest...
hey judo are you on line pal??
hey judo are you on line pal??
I'm calling it a night. Been struggling with the Pultney Land H'Cap Chase to be honest, and have perhaps gone down the route of trying to find a plot horse from one of the canny trainers.
Trouble is, the ones I've looked at a by far from being guaranteed a run.
I've looked at Grey Soldier and Forty Five, both of whom have much higher hurdle ratings compared to what they have achieved over fences so far, and both trained by 'canny' trainers in Gordon Elliott and Jonjo O'Neill, so might have a wild punt on these two once I've assessed their likelihood of running over the weekend.
Trouble is, the ones I've looked at a by far from being guaranteed a run.
I've looked at Grey Soldier and Forty Five, both of whom have much higher hurdle ratings compared to what they have achieved over fences so far, and both trained by 'canny' trainers in Gordon Elliott and Jonjo O'Neill, so might have a wild punt on these two once I've assessed their likelihood of running over the weekend.
alright pal - horse i like in kim muir is becauseicantsee..think nina will be on and am very keen...have backed accordingly...have been waiting for this race for the horse for 2 years...the race has become a limited handicap in recent years so won't be giving much weight and nice prep the last day and was in the process of running a nice race in the paddy power gold cup when taking a heavy fall(had jumped well up till then...this will be right up the horses alley... this is more his trip...still think he is still well handicapped and has always gone well for an amateur...anyways up to you what you do but have been studying the race for a couple of weeks and feel the top 5 in the betting are quite weak...anyway big bet for me and hope you have a couple of english pounds on...
Harry I have already backed it for the Grand National. have you read my "Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style" thread in the Grand National forum? He comes out 3rd best on the National trends plus some other stuff I have found. Think he has a serious chance. Are you certain they will be "off" at Cheltenham?
well i think this has been on the radar all year as well as the national of which i also have a small interest...the owner trainer has been very keen on him for this race and seems very bullish reading reports...for me this is the animals ideal trip as think he has a touch of class for just a handicapper...anyway judo i always try and pin point races long term, best suited to certain horses and much as i feel he gets 4 miles i think he isn't short of pace and the kim muir in which they normally go quick will suit him ideally...don't think the trainer knows how to do a not off and he worships the creature...this is the race for him for me and think he will be trying his nuts off. had the perfect prep against galileos and think he will go close as always judo in racing i could be wrong...but have had him down for this for a long time and is still weighted to win a good handicap and being as this has become a limited handicap that is also ideal.
I will certainly have a pop mate as I totally respect your angle and I know the horse has been looked after for this time of year.... thanks for the heads up because I probs wouldn't bother with the race
no worries...hope your wrong on the needing the run angle with national in mind, but think he is training him to win both and here's hoping that is the case...sad but big follower of amateur races judo...no one else is interested, which gives people who study them ie me an edge...
joci apologies for talking over your thread...
out of interest why was sous le cieux not on the radar in the neptune?? couldn't figure out why??
regards
out of interest why was sous le cieux not on the radar in the neptune?? couldn't figure out why??
regards
because he has not won at 2 miles 4 furlongs at a guess. And agreed apols to JOCI
No worries, all good racing chat. Last day at work today!!
Sous Les Cieux was eliminated on account of not having finished either 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle starts (was 3rd at Leopardstown behind Cash And Go and Dylan Ross).
Really struggling to fathom the Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase.
Getting nowhere with my analysis. Thinking about trying the angle of last time out winner, with course and distance win, and that points me in the direction of Alan King's Bless The Wings.
Getting nowhere with my analysis. Thinking about trying the angle of last time out winner, with course and distance win, and that points me in the direction of Alan King's Bless The Wings.
if you can't get an angle, leave it and move on to other races - switching your attention will allow your unconscious to process the information and when you come back to it it may seem clearer
Done the NH Chase yet? Or started the handicaps (Muir, Byrne, Annual)?
Done the NH Chase yet? Or started the handicaps (Muir, Byrne, Annual)?
I still have a lot of work to do over the weekend on the Pulteney, and need to add the weights into my analysis which i'm not doing now as finishing second bottle of shiraz, but one's i'll be concentrating on are:
Ackertac misses 'won last time' but was 2nd to Triolo D'Alene a few lengths and if im correct, was giving 6lbs and will carry llb less than that horse last time. May still have too much weight though but from 3 career wins, 2 on good
Harpsy Cord - should hit all stats other than age. 6 rather than 7
Tiger O'Toole - Well in on hurdling form. Only just got to grips with fences - is he well in?
Points to note: 6 winners sent off 9/2 - 12/1. All were first 5 in betting.
Last 3 winners won last time out
Divers only winner to have won more than once over fences
13 of 14 winners in the novices handicaps (this and fred winter) were beaten on first two starts in new discipline. Only Divers bucks the trend
Ackertac misses 'won last time' but was 2nd to Triolo D'Alene a few lengths and if im correct, was giving 6lbs and will carry llb less than that horse last time. May still have too much weight though but from 3 career wins, 2 on good
Harpsy Cord - should hit all stats other than age. 6 rather than 7
Tiger O'Toole - Well in on hurdling form. Only just got to grips with fences - is he well in?
Points to note: 6 winners sent off 9/2 - 12/1. All were first 5 in betting.
Last 3 winners won last time out
Divers only winner to have won more than once over fences
13 of 14 winners in the novices handicaps (this and fred winter) were beaten on first two starts in new discipline. Only Divers bucks the trend
Nope, that's for tomorrow and Sunday! Had a small wager on Bless The Wngs having wathced him win (nicely) a large field handicap over course and distance at Cheltenham last time out.
Carrying a bit more weight than I'd have liked but there you go.
Like the 4 miler, so will have a crack at that tomorrow morning.
Carrying a bit more weight than I'd have liked but there you go.
Like the 4 miler, so will have a crack at that tomorrow morning.
Judo, for what its worth, in what i've done so far 4 horses hit all trends for NH
Alfie Spinner
Blenheim Brook
Teaforthree
Universal Soldier
Had a nibble of BB ew and TFT will be bet on the day I feel as so far ahead on OR. Also respect the Join Together form
Alfie Spinner
Blenheim Brook
Teaforthree
Universal Soldier
Had a nibble of BB ew and TFT will be bet on the day I feel as so far ahead on OR. Also respect the Join Together form
WED 14 MAR 2012
141st Year of National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)
A stamina sapping four miles for novices and amateur jockeys - sounds like a nightmare! Here we go, attempting to narrow down the field using stats / trends.
FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
24123 Alfie Spinner25 7 11-06 Nick Williams 135 133 153
1-4133 Allee Garde53 7 11-06 W P Mullins — 63 156
1432P0 Benbane Head25 8 11-06 Martin Keighley 136 103 152
1-712P Ben´s Folly25 7 11-06 Tim Vaughan 127 122 137
222121 Blenheim Brook37 7 11-06 Lucinda Russell 134 90 145
23/2-0 Bob ´N´ You21 9 11-06 Ian Williams — — —
54616 Brunswick Gold22 7 11-06 Steve Gollings 121 113 131
152153 Cottage Oak131 9 11-06 Gordon Elliott — 124 136
121362 Court Red Handed47 7 11-06 Sarah Humphrey 129 128 140
4/114 Daffern Seal203 8 11-06 D K Weld — 123 142
212242 Four Commanders24 6 11-06 M F Morris — 131 147
58-421 Glens Boy56 8 11-06 Henrietta Knight 116 106 129
513516 Gorge26 10 11-06 Anthony Cosgriff 120 109 131
111P4 Graduation Night26 6 11-06 Jamie Snowden 125 107 143
2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7 11-06 Paul Nicholls 136 140 154
33314 Iron Chancellor26 7 11-06 Alan King 129 112 141
011F6U Leggy Lad38 9 11-06 Stephen McConville — 115 140
421331 Lively Baron19 7 11-06 Donald McCain 120 131 146
45213 Monbeg Dude56 7 11-06 Michael Scudamore 120 111 133
7-4611 Nodebateaboutit55 7 11-06 Tom George 111 85 126
716223 Not So Sure Dick18 7 11-06 George Baker 108 116 126
4FP14 Oscar Close55 7 11-06 George Baker 112 117 129
429265 Our Island25 7 11-06 Tim Vaughan 130 137 139
P73F20 River D´Or46 7 11-06 Sophie Leech 110 114 129
180776 Sensational Sema20 8 11-06 A J Martin — 77 100
1/1-21 Soll42 7 11-06 W P Mullins — 124 150
4-F124 State Benefit24 7 11-06 Nicky Henderson 128 124 136
281F3P Strongbows Legend22 7 11-06 Charlie Longsdon 131 131 145
321P1 Teaforthree18 8 11-06 Rebecca Curtis 146 151 161
1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7 11-06 Charlie Longsdon 138 114 154
143P5 Viking Blond25 7 11-06 Nigel Twiston-Davies 137 133 153
212254 Your Busy18 9 11-06 J A Nash — 120 143
12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12 10-13 Lawney Hill 122 57 129
2F23P4 Our Victoria17 7 10-13 Colin Bowe — 116 147
Step 1 - Eliminate horses not finishing in the first 2 last time out (7/10)
In any race, I like to look at decent rcent form, and so I'd naturally be keen on omitting horses who didn't put up a good showing last time out. I have left in horses who fell / unseated to give them the benefit of the doubt. This cuts the field down to the following:
222121 Blenheim Brook37 7
121362 Court Red Handed47 7
212242 Four Commanders24 6
58-421 Glens Boy56 8
2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7
011F6U Leggy Lad38 9
421331 Lively Baron19 7
7-4611 Nodebateaboutit55 7
1/1-21 Soll42 7
321P1 Teaforthree18 8
1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7
12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12
Step 2 - Eliminate horses aged 5 or 6 or those having fewer than 3 chase starts
This stat is intended to weed out horses who may not yet be ready for a race of this challenge, and perhaps lack the experience. This further reduces the field by 2.
222121 Blenheim Brook37 7
121362 Court Red Handed47 7
58-421 Glens Boy56 8
2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7
011F6U Leggy Lad38 9
421331 Lively Baron19 7
1/1-21 Soll42 7
321P1 Teaforthree18 8
1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7
12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12
Step 3 - Eliminate horses who have not run in the last 50 days
8 of the last 10 winners had the benefit of a recent warm up race to blow away the cobwebs and fine tune them for this race. I'm happy to apply that stat to the remaining field, though note that this rules out a few fancied horses like Harry The Viking & Universal Soldier and leaves a final shortlist of 7 runners.
222121 Blenheim Brook37 7
121362 Court Red Handed47 7
011F6U Leggy Lad38 9
421331 Lively Baron19 7
1/1-21 Soll42 7
321P1 Teaforthree18 8
12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12
To these horses a then applied a number of stats, awarding a point for each stat satisfied:
(a) 1st or 2nd last time out
(b) aged 7 or 8
(c) 4 to 8 runs since August
(d) won over 3m+
(e) run in 3-9 chases (ex-PTPs)
(f) made debut in bumper, hurdle race or PTP
(g) finished 1st or 2nd in 3m+ chase
I eliminated horses who failed to achieve at least 5 of the above 7 trends / stats, to leave a shortlist of:
222121 Blenheim Brook
121362 Court Red Handed
421331 Lively Baron
1/1-21 Soll
321P1 Teaforthree
The first horse for the chop is Court Red Handed, as I just didn't get the right feel from the last couple of races run by this horse, and am not sure the form is there to make him a major player in this race (currently 70/1 here).
I'm also prepared to overlook Lively Baron, on the basis that the horse should in theory be well held by Harry The Viking (is this a cse for bringing HTV into consideration?)
222121 Blenheim Brook
1/1-21 Soll
321P1 Teaforthree
This is my final shortlist. I've backed Blenheim Brook for another race, and would be disappointed to see him line up here and would give him some consideration on the day if he did.
Soll seems to be well fancied, but I'm not so convinced. Most of the winning has been on soft-heavy ground in Ireland, and i'd need further evidence of strong staying attributes to ant to part with cash. Could be a cut above, but I'm just not tempted.
This leaves my selection:
Teaforthree
I always look for horses with guaranteed stamina, and was encouraged to see the comment 'stayed on dourly from 3 out' (3m Chepstow, soft) when winning his last race. He comes into the race in good form, has some decent Cheltenham experience (including Festival experience - Albert Bartlett); got close to Join Together at Cheltenham in November and the only blip appears to be his 'pulled up' in the Feltham (which would not be totally unexpected against the likes of Grands Crus), and soo is forgiven. All that is good enough to make him my selection.
141st Year of National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)
A stamina sapping four miles for novices and amateur jockeys - sounds like a nightmare! Here we go, attempting to narrow down the field using stats / trends.
FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
24123 Alfie Spinner25 7 11-06 Nick Williams 135 133 153
1-4133 Allee Garde53 7 11-06 W P Mullins — 63 156
1432P0 Benbane Head25 8 11-06 Martin Keighley 136 103 152
1-712P Ben´s Folly25 7 11-06 Tim Vaughan 127 122 137
222121 Blenheim Brook37 7 11-06 Lucinda Russell 134 90 145
23/2-0 Bob ´N´ You21 9 11-06 Ian Williams — — —
54616 Brunswick Gold22 7 11-06 Steve Gollings 121 113 131
152153 Cottage Oak131 9 11-06 Gordon Elliott — 124 136
121362 Court Red Handed47 7 11-06 Sarah Humphrey 129 128 140
4/114 Daffern Seal203 8 11-06 D K Weld — 123 142
212242 Four Commanders24 6 11-06 M F Morris — 131 147
58-421 Glens Boy56 8 11-06 Henrietta Knight 116 106 129
513516 Gorge26 10 11-06 Anthony Cosgriff 120 109 131
111P4 Graduation Night26 6 11-06 Jamie Snowden 125 107 143
2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7 11-06 Paul Nicholls 136 140 154
33314 Iron Chancellor26 7 11-06 Alan King 129 112 141
011F6U Leggy Lad38 9 11-06 Stephen McConville — 115 140
421331 Lively Baron19 7 11-06 Donald McCain 120 131 146
45213 Monbeg Dude56 7 11-06 Michael Scudamore 120 111 133
7-4611 Nodebateaboutit55 7 11-06 Tom George 111 85 126
716223 Not So Sure Dick18 7 11-06 George Baker 108 116 126
4FP14 Oscar Close55 7 11-06 George Baker 112 117 129
429265 Our Island25 7 11-06 Tim Vaughan 130 137 139
P73F20 River D´Or46 7 11-06 Sophie Leech 110 114 129
180776 Sensational Sema20 8 11-06 A J Martin — 77 100
1/1-21 Soll42 7 11-06 W P Mullins — 124 150
4-F124 State Benefit24 7 11-06 Nicky Henderson 128 124 136
281F3P Strongbows Legend22 7 11-06 Charlie Longsdon 131 131 145
321P1 Teaforthree18 8 11-06 Rebecca Curtis 146 151 161
1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7 11-06 Charlie Longsdon 138 114 154
143P5 Viking Blond25 7 11-06 Nigel Twiston-Davies 137 133 153
212254 Your Busy18 9 11-06 J A Nash — 120 143
12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12 10-13 Lawney Hill 122 57 129
2F23P4 Our Victoria17 7 10-13 Colin Bowe — 116 147
Step 1 - Eliminate horses not finishing in the first 2 last time out (7/10)
In any race, I like to look at decent rcent form, and so I'd naturally be keen on omitting horses who didn't put up a good showing last time out. I have left in horses who fell / unseated to give them the benefit of the doubt. This cuts the field down to the following:
222121 Blenheim Brook37 7
121362 Court Red Handed47 7
212242 Four Commanders24 6
58-421 Glens Boy56 8
2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7
011F6U Leggy Lad38 9
421331 Lively Baron19 7
7-4611 Nodebateaboutit55 7
1/1-21 Soll42 7
321P1 Teaforthree18 8
1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7
12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12
Step 2 - Eliminate horses aged 5 or 6 or those having fewer than 3 chase starts
This stat is intended to weed out horses who may not yet be ready for a race of this challenge, and perhaps lack the experience. This further reduces the field by 2.
222121 Blenheim Brook37 7
121362 Court Red Handed47 7
58-421 Glens Boy56 8
2-1111 Harry The Viking76 7
011F6U Leggy Lad38 9
421331 Lively Baron19 7
1/1-21 Soll42 7
321P1 Teaforthree18 8
1-2P1 Universal Soldier52 7
12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12
Step 3 - Eliminate horses who have not run in the last 50 days
8 of the last 10 winners had the benefit of a recent warm up race to blow away the cobwebs and fine tune them for this race. I'm happy to apply that stat to the remaining field, though note that this rules out a few fancied horses like Harry The Viking & Universal Soldier and leaves a final shortlist of 7 runners.
222121 Blenheim Brook37 7
121362 Court Red Handed47 7
011F6U Leggy Lad38 9
421331 Lively Baron19 7
1/1-21 Soll42 7
321P1 Teaforthree18 8
12-13F Mid Div And Creep19 12
To these horses a then applied a number of stats, awarding a point for each stat satisfied:
(a) 1st or 2nd last time out
(b) aged 7 or 8
(c) 4 to 8 runs since August
(d) won over 3m+
(e) run in 3-9 chases (ex-PTPs)
(f) made debut in bumper, hurdle race or PTP
(g) finished 1st or 2nd in 3m+ chase
I eliminated horses who failed to achieve at least 5 of the above 7 trends / stats, to leave a shortlist of:
222121 Blenheim Brook
121362 Court Red Handed
421331 Lively Baron
1/1-21 Soll
321P1 Teaforthree
The first horse for the chop is Court Red Handed, as I just didn't get the right feel from the last couple of races run by this horse, and am not sure the form is there to make him a major player in this race (currently 70/1 here).
I'm also prepared to overlook Lively Baron, on the basis that the horse should in theory be well held by Harry The Viking (is this a cse for bringing HTV into consideration?)
222121 Blenheim Brook
1/1-21 Soll
321P1 Teaforthree
This is my final shortlist. I've backed Blenheim Brook for another race, and would be disappointed to see him line up here and would give him some consideration on the day if he did.
Soll seems to be well fancied, but I'm not so convinced. Most of the winning has been on soft-heavy ground in Ireland, and i'd need further evidence of strong staying attributes to ant to part with cash. Could be a cut above, but I'm just not tempted.
This leaves my selection:
Teaforthree
I always look for horses with guaranteed stamina, and was encouraged to see the comment 'stayed on dourly from 3 out' (3m Chepstow, soft) when winning his last race. He comes into the race in good form, has some decent Cheltenham experience (including Festival experience - Albert Bartlett); got close to Join Together at Cheltenham in November and the only blip appears to be his 'pulled up' in the Feltham (which would not be totally unexpected against the likes of Grands Crus), and soo is forgiven. All that is good enough to make him my selection.
I did this race last night too and came to pretty much the same conclusion apart from dismissing on the 50 day rule. Firstly, 8 from 10 is not that strong and we have no idea of how many who ran failed. So I have had to include Harry the Viking who fits every other trend. I tend to use the 84 day rule in most caes as this rarely eliminates a winner in non handicaps . Teaforthree fits all the trends but I am very worried about the going for him - all his performances coming on soft and heavy.
good work mate
good work mate
Yes, concerned about Harry The Viking myself, and might have a 'saver' on the day, depending on how things go. For Teaforthree, I'm hoping the extra distance will perhaps mitigate his perceived preference for softer ground.
Forgot to mention that he also comes out top on all of Topspeed, OR and RPR ratings.
Forgot to mention that he also comes out top on all of Topspeed, OR and RPR ratings.
Heard whispers about a horse called Clonbanan Lad running in the Champion Bumper. However it is not confirmed to run just yet, was told Monday
Have backed Clonbanan Lad (with Sir Johnson) for the Bumper, so hope he does turn up, but have also read he was 50/50 to run.
Yes, should have made that a bit clearer. I was told the decision will be made on Monday if he runs or not.
Technically Harry The Viking has only had 2 chase starts. He has of course had 3 PTP runs as well.
Where do you stand on including PTP in the 'run over fences at least 3 times' stat
Where do you stand on including PTP in the 'run over fences at least 3 times' stat
re the NH Chase 50 day rule, runners 59 days+ last 8 years FYI
horse name-horse suffix-horse age-sp-position-0-00-days since run
Billywill-IRE-10-100/1-P-11-11-57
Madam's Man-GB-8-66/1-12-11-11-53
Celestial Gold-IRE-6-33/1-2-11-11-78
Drombeag-IRE-6-8/1-3-11-07-92
Keepatem-IRE-9-9/2-8-12-00-67
Go White Lightning-IRE-10-100/1-4-11-07-102
Classic Native-IRE-7-12/1-P-11-11-89
Willie John Daly-IRE-8-14/1-7-12-00-61
Far From Trouble-IRE-7-7/2-3-11-11-105
Dolmur-IRE-6-25/1-P-11-11-87
Mac Three-IRE-8-12/1-F-11-11-60
Butler's Cabin-FR-7-33/1-1-12-00-96
High Cotton-IRE-12-50/1-4-11-07-120
Not Left Yet-IRE-6-16/1-F-11-11-160
Bengo-IRE-7-50/1-U-11-07-61
Sizing Australia-IRE-6-25/1-9-11-07-76
Parsons Pistol-IRE-7-7/1-F-11-11-53
Abbeybraney-IRE-9-11/1-P-11-06-98
Gentle Ranger-IRE-8-28/1-F-11-06-53
Tinakellylad-IRE-6-20/1-F-11-06-55
Aberdale-IRE-7-10/1-P-11-06-112
Chicago Grey-IRE-8-5/1-1-11-06-78
Alfa Beat-IRE-7-11/2-4-11-06-182
Sona Sasta-IRE-8-11/1-6-11-06-56
10/1 and under in bold
horse name-horse suffix-horse age-sp-position-0-00-days since run
Billywill-IRE-10-100/1-P-11-11-57
Madam's Man-GB-8-66/1-12-11-11-53
Celestial Gold-IRE-6-33/1-2-11-11-78
Drombeag-IRE-6-8/1-3-11-07-92
Keepatem-IRE-9-9/2-8-12-00-67
Go White Lightning-IRE-10-100/1-4-11-07-102
Classic Native-IRE-7-12/1-P-11-11-89
Willie John Daly-IRE-8-14/1-7-12-00-61
Far From Trouble-IRE-7-7/2-3-11-11-105
Dolmur-IRE-6-25/1-P-11-11-87
Mac Three-IRE-8-12/1-F-11-11-60
Butler's Cabin-FR-7-33/1-1-12-00-96
High Cotton-IRE-12-50/1-4-11-07-120
Not Left Yet-IRE-6-16/1-F-11-11-160
Bengo-IRE-7-50/1-U-11-07-61
Sizing Australia-IRE-6-25/1-9-11-07-76
Parsons Pistol-IRE-7-7/1-F-11-11-53
Abbeybraney-IRE-9-11/1-P-11-06-98
Gentle Ranger-IRE-8-28/1-F-11-06-53
Tinakellylad-IRE-6-20/1-F-11-06-55
Aberdale-IRE-7-10/1-P-11-06-112
Chicago Grey-IRE-8-5/1-1-11-06-78
Alfa Beat-IRE-7-11/2-4-11-06-182
Sona Sasta-IRE-8-11/1-6-11-06-56
10/1 and under in bold
not technically, he has only had two chases! blimey missed that - have to scrub him now! thanks buddy
THU 15 MAR 2012
Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)CH4
3miles
Some of the key trends (courtesy of Racecaller):
9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9
In the past 8 runnings horses carrying 10-9 or less have won 7 and filled 24 of 32 places
Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 8 of the last 10
4 of 10 winners won last time out (5 were unplaced last time)
9 of 10 winners had their last run between 20 to 50 days ago
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 hurdles races
6 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (3 of 4 exceptions finished in first 6 in previous Pertemps)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
5 of 10 winners were NH bred
5 of 10 winners were rated 70 to 85 on the flat
Current field of horses:
132341 Restless Harry26 8
510-P7 Ashkazar80 8
131-12 Poungach74 6
122-1 Our Father90 6
2F55P Russian War138 9
P/2368 Pettifour61 10
54F23 Rick25 8
41/33 Sergent Guib´s39 6
411-97 Sir Kezbaah27 8
5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8
Nov-25 Sonofvic74 7
61F54 Pineau De Re39 9
Mar-75 Catch Me39 10
900509 Buena Vista27 11
782425 Across The Bay47 8
96710 Houblon Des Obeaux26 5
P8171 Tenor Nivernais24 5
7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8
27232 Saphir River131 6
8F131P Palace Jester26 7
2414 Reindeer Dippin26 10
Feb-20 Cantlow15 7
50225 Kayf Aramis26 10
06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6
4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8
1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8
51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7
6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9
23211 43 Grand Vision26 6
481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8
0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6
2009 40 Qulinton110 8
F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9
2-1541 38 Jetson77 7
14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7
2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8
1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7
1291P7 34 Ostland33 7
11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6
7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8
PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9
P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9
8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7
71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8
1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8
7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8
20090 25 Global Power15 6
15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6
2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6
230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7
88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6
22446 20 Arctic Court33 8
1F32P 19 Tour Des Champs26 5
332/62 18 Volador26 8
387-31 17 Secret Tune34 8
21208 16 Decoy22 6
F-5P24 15 Glenwood Knight54 9
137-02 14 The Pier68 6
0-695 13 Aachen61 8
43106 12 Safran De Cotte26 6
U62720 11 Devotion To Duty22 6
1-1280 10 Eastlake26 6
8U1U20 9 Ely Brown22 7
141-03 8 Turner Brown19 8
66611 7 Merry King25 5
1-712P 6 Ben´s Folly26 7
Apr-26 5 Carribs Leap13 7
322119 4 Tarvini12 7
P04525 3 Stow27 7
8763- 2 Open Day339 6
946990 1 Duroob39 10
Step 1 - Look for horses with an OR in the range 129 - 142. This stat alone can be used to cut down the field significantly. It's usually very difficult for horses carrying big weights to make an impression here, as there's normally something well handicapped and unexposed further down the weights. Furthermore, the very lowly rated horses are potentially unlikely to be able to take a race of this competitive nature, haven't shown much form, and the majority of them won't be making the cut either. This leaves the following:
5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8
Nov-25 Sonofvic74 7
61F54 Pineau De Re39 9
1634521 Catch Me39 10
900509 Buena Vista27 11
782425 Across The Bay47 8
96710 Houblon Des Obeaux26 5
P8171 Tenor Nivernais24 5
7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8
27232 Saphir River131 6
8F131P Palace Jester26 7
2414 Reindeer Dippin26 10
Feb-20 Cantlow15 7
50225 Kayf Aramis26 10
06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6
4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8
1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8
51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7
6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9
23211 43 Grand Vision26 6
481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8
0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6
2009 40 Qulinton110 8
F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9
2-1541 38 Jetson77 7
14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7
2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8
1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7
1291P7 34 Ostland33 7
11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6
7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8
PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9
P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9
8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7
71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8
1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8
7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8
20090 25 Global Power15 6
15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6
2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6
230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7
88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6
22446 20 Arctic Court33 8
1F32P 19 Tour Des Champs26 5
Step 2 - consider horses in the 6-9 age bracket, as anything below 6, and they are likely to be a little inexperienced for this, and anything over 9 and potentially no longer at their very best (though Buena Vista might have something to say about that)! This further reduces the field to the following:
5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8
45962 Sonofvic74 7
61F54 Pineau De Re39 9
782425 Across The Bay47 8
7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8
27232 Saphir River131 6
8F131P Palace Jester26 7
774347 Cantlow15 7
06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6
4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8
1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8
51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7
6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9
23211 43 Grand Vision26 6
481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8
0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6
2009 40 Qulinton110 8
F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9
2-1541 38 Jetson77 7
14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7
2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8
1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7
1291P7 34 Ostland33 7
11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6
7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8
PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9
P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9
8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7
71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8
1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8
7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8
20090 25 Global Power15 6
15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6
2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6
230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7
88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6
22446 20 Arctic Court33 8
Step 3 - look to horses that have finished in the first 2 last time out, as an indicator of good recent form.
27232 Saphir River131 6
6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9
23211 43 Grand Vision26 6
481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8
2-1541 38 Jetson77 7
14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7
1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7
7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8
15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6
2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6
230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7
88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6
This is a more manageable field, but potentially one where not many of the remaining horses are going to be guaranteed a run. I've applied the following to each horses to give me a kind of ranking of their chances:
(a) horses last run should ideally have been within the last 51 days
(b) an added bonus if they won last time out
(c) should ideally have run between 3 and 7 times this season (battle hardened but not worn out)
(d) the horse should have managed between 2 and 5 hurdle wins (enough to show ability but not enough to have been clobbered by the handicapper)
(e) should have won less than 4 handicap hurdles (again, not likely to be in the grip of the handicapper)
(f) should ideally have won a class 3 hurdle or better
(g) should have won over at least 3 miles
Applying to above 7 factors to the remaining field gave me the following ranking:
Grand Vision 7
Oscar Prairie 7
Allthekingshorses 7
Jetson 6
Bellflower Boy 5
Poole Master 5
Cut off point
Star Of Angels 4
Dooney Rock 4
Hard To Swallow 4
Fiulin 4
Saphir River 3
Well Hello There 2
I'm happy to dismiss those with fewer than 5 positives, which leaves a final shortlist of:
Grand Vision
Oscar Prairie
Allthekingshorses
Jetson
Bellflower Boy
Poole Master
I must confess to having no idea at this stage whether any or all of the above will be turning up on the day, but if they do, these will be the ones I'll be concentrating on. Whilst the top three pass all the trends used, the one I have a sneaky feeling for is David Pipe's Poole Master, who I suspect could be one of Pipe's well handicapped plot horses, and I've had a small bet on him so far.
Selection: Poole Master
Any of the others will be given strong consideration on the day, should they make the field.
Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)CH4
3miles
Some of the key trends (courtesy of Racecaller):
9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9
In the past 8 runnings horses carrying 10-9 or less have won 7 and filled 24 of 32 places
Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 8 of the last 10
4 of 10 winners won last time out (5 were unplaced last time)
9 of 10 winners had their last run between 20 to 50 days ago
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 hurdles races
6 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 handicap hurdles (3 of 4 exceptions finished in first 6 in previous Pertemps)
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
5 of 10 winners were NH bred
5 of 10 winners were rated 70 to 85 on the flat
Current field of horses:
132341 Restless Harry26 8
510-P7 Ashkazar80 8
131-12 Poungach74 6
122-1 Our Father90 6
2F55P Russian War138 9
P/2368 Pettifour61 10
54F23 Rick25 8
41/33 Sergent Guib´s39 6
411-97 Sir Kezbaah27 8
5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8
Nov-25 Sonofvic74 7
61F54 Pineau De Re39 9
Mar-75 Catch Me39 10
900509 Buena Vista27 11
782425 Across The Bay47 8
96710 Houblon Des Obeaux26 5
P8171 Tenor Nivernais24 5
7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8
27232 Saphir River131 6
8F131P Palace Jester26 7
2414 Reindeer Dippin26 10
Feb-20 Cantlow15 7
50225 Kayf Aramis26 10
06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6
4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8
1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8
51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7
6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9
23211 43 Grand Vision26 6
481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8
0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6
2009 40 Qulinton110 8
F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9
2-1541 38 Jetson77 7
14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7
2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8
1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7
1291P7 34 Ostland33 7
11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6
7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8
PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9
P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9
8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7
71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8
1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8
7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8
20090 25 Global Power15 6
15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6
2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6
230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7
88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6
22446 20 Arctic Court33 8
1F32P 19 Tour Des Champs26 5
332/62 18 Volador26 8
387-31 17 Secret Tune34 8
21208 16 Decoy22 6
F-5P24 15 Glenwood Knight54 9
137-02 14 The Pier68 6
0-695 13 Aachen61 8
43106 12 Safran De Cotte26 6
U62720 11 Devotion To Duty22 6
1-1280 10 Eastlake26 6
8U1U20 9 Ely Brown22 7
141-03 8 Turner Brown19 8
66611 7 Merry King25 5
1-712P 6 Ben´s Folly26 7
Apr-26 5 Carribs Leap13 7
322119 4 Tarvini12 7
P04525 3 Stow27 7
8763- 2 Open Day339 6
946990 1 Duroob39 10
Step 1 - Look for horses with an OR in the range 129 - 142. This stat alone can be used to cut down the field significantly. It's usually very difficult for horses carrying big weights to make an impression here, as there's normally something well handicapped and unexposed further down the weights. Furthermore, the very lowly rated horses are potentially unlikely to be able to take a race of this competitive nature, haven't shown much form, and the majority of them won't be making the cut either. This leaves the following:
5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8
Nov-25 Sonofvic74 7
61F54 Pineau De Re39 9
1634521 Catch Me39 10
900509 Buena Vista27 11
782425 Across The Bay47 8
96710 Houblon Des Obeaux26 5
P8171 Tenor Nivernais24 5
7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8
27232 Saphir River131 6
8F131P Palace Jester26 7
2414 Reindeer Dippin26 10
Feb-20 Cantlow15 7
50225 Kayf Aramis26 10
06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6
4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8
1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8
51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7
6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9
23211 43 Grand Vision26 6
481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8
0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6
2009 40 Qulinton110 8
F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9
2-1541 38 Jetson77 7
14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7
2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8
1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7
1291P7 34 Ostland33 7
11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6
7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8
PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9
P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9
8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7
71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8
1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8
7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8
20090 25 Global Power15 6
15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6
2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6
230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7
88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6
22446 20 Arctic Court33 8
1F32P 19 Tour Des Champs26 5
Step 2 - consider horses in the 6-9 age bracket, as anything below 6, and they are likely to be a little inexperienced for this, and anything over 9 and potentially no longer at their very best (though Buena Vista might have something to say about that)! This further reduces the field to the following:
5P504 Cape Tribulation26 8
45962 Sonofvic74 7
61F54 Pineau De Re39 9
782425 Across The Bay47 8
7-P4P0 Quartz De Thaix15 8
27232 Saphir River131 6
8F131P Palace Jester26 7
774347 Cantlow15 7
06-336 Barwell Bridge34 6
4-1116 47 Thehillofuisneach26 8
1-0690 46 Prince Erik32 8
51222P 45 Scotsbrook Cloud26 7
6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9
23211 43 Grand Vision26 6
481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8
0-1316 41 Knight Pass47 6
2009 40 Qulinton110 8
F-37P9 39 Sunnyhillboy26 9
2-1541 38 Jetson77 7
14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7
2-U534 36 Adams Island49 8
1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7
1291P7 34 Ostland33 7
11514 33 Sivola De Sivola47 6
7010P 32 Dorset Square48 8
PP-233 31 Wolf Moon110 9
P-PF75 30 Alfie Sherrin26 9
8319-8 29 Shoegazer145 7
71027 28 Frontier Dancer53 8
1-31P4 27 Galaxy Rock47 8
7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8
20090 25 Global Power15 6
15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6
2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6
230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7
88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6
22446 20 Arctic Court33 8
Step 3 - look to horses that have finished in the first 2 last time out, as an indicator of good recent form.
27232 Saphir River131 6
6011 44 Bellflower Boy49 9
23211 43 Grand Vision26 6
481/01 42 Star Of Angels68 8
2-1541 38 Jetson77 7
14-111 37 Poole Master13 5x 7
1PP11 35 Oscar Prairie19 7
7251 26 Dooney Rock64 8
15851 24 Allthekingshorses22 6
2F442 23 Hard To Swallow34 6
230P-1 22 Fiulin25 7
88-172 21 Well Hello There89 6
This is a more manageable field, but potentially one where not many of the remaining horses are going to be guaranteed a run. I've applied the following to each horses to give me a kind of ranking of their chances:
(a) horses last run should ideally have been within the last 51 days
(b) an added bonus if they won last time out
(c) should ideally have run between 3 and 7 times this season (battle hardened but not worn out)
(d) the horse should have managed between 2 and 5 hurdle wins (enough to show ability but not enough to have been clobbered by the handicapper)
(e) should have won less than 4 handicap hurdles (again, not likely to be in the grip of the handicapper)
(f) should ideally have won a class 3 hurdle or better
(g) should have won over at least 3 miles
Applying to above 7 factors to the remaining field gave me the following ranking:
Grand Vision 7
Oscar Prairie 7
Allthekingshorses 7
Jetson 6
Bellflower Boy 5
Poole Master 5
Cut off point
Star Of Angels 4
Dooney Rock 4
Hard To Swallow 4
Fiulin 4
Saphir River 3
Well Hello There 2
I'm happy to dismiss those with fewer than 5 positives, which leaves a final shortlist of:
Grand Vision
Oscar Prairie
Allthekingshorses
Jetson
Bellflower Boy
Poole Master
I must confess to having no idea at this stage whether any or all of the above will be turning up on the day, but if they do, these will be the ones I'll be concentrating on. Whilst the top three pass all the trends used, the one I have a sneaky feeling for is David Pipe's Poole Master, who I suspect could be one of Pipe's well handicapped plot horses, and I've had a small bet on him so far.
Selection: Poole Master
Any of the others will be given strong consideration on the day, should they make the field.
CHAMPION HURDLE
Managed to get the winner last year. The stats suggested Binocular last year, and he was my selection, but on hearing about him being a non runner, my next best selection was Hurricane Fly who duly obliged.
Let's see what the stats say this season:
1 Preferred age 6-8
2 24 of 28 winners won last time out (consider this very important)
3 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (a fairly recent run has been very important)
4 9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (it's good to be a bit 'battle hardened' if you're going to win this race)
5 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle
6 9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (there's little substitute for experience)
7 previous Cheltenham winning form is a positive
8 a win during the current season is highly desirable
Ranking all of the current field in terms of these stats gives a ranking as follows:
Binocular 8
Celestial Halo 7
Hurricane Fly 7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Thousand Stars 7
Grandouet 6
Zaidpour 6
Clerk´s Choice 5
Final Approach 5
Olofi 5
Peddlers Cross 5
Zarkandar 5
Brampour 4
Oscars Well 4
Overturn 4
So Young 4
Starluck 4
Staying Article 4
Kalann 3
Rock On Ruby 3
I would be keen to go a stage further, and add an additional bonus point to those horses who won last time out, and another to those horses who have shown sufficient class to win a geade 1 hurdle outside of novice company.
The revised ranking is then as follows:
Binocular 10
Hurricane Fly 9
Thousand Stars 8
Celestial Halo 7
Grandouet 7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Zaidpour 7
Peddlers Cross 6
Zarkandar 6
Clerk´s Choice 5
Final Approach 5
Olofi 5
Overturn 5
So Young 5
Brampour 4
Oscars Well 4
Starluck 4
Staying Article 4
Kalann 3
Rock On Ruby 3
This gives a basic ranking based on the stats I have selected. I'm quite happy to cut the field down by half by eliminating all those horses who received a score of lower than 6, which leaves a field of as follows:
Binocular 10
Hurricane Fly 9
Thousand Stars 8
Celestial Halo 7
Grandouet 7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Zaidpour 7
Peddlers Cross 6
Zarkandar 6
So, who can I happily discard now.
Well, first to go is Celestial Halo. Despite being an admirable horse, most would agree that the horse now lacks the gears to win a Champion Hurdle. Brushed aside by Binocular yesterday, Celestial Halo would have suffered the same fate at the hands of Grandouet earlier in the season, had the latter not taken a tumble. Second to get the chop is Mikael D´Haguenet. Despite recapturing some of his verve this season with a couple of wins, the horse has never really reached the heights that his novice form suggested he might, and it would be a great leap of faith to suggest he could win the blue riband event this season (also readily beaten by Mourad today albeit over a longer trip). Trainer may also be having second thoughts about travelling over after today.
I thought Thousand Stars was going to make up into a really decent staying hurdler this season, but he's been campaigned over shorter trips. A very good front running performance first time out this season suggested big things were to come from this horse, but he's been relatively disappointing since then, being outpointed by Unaccompanied, then brushed aside 10 lengths by Hurricane Fly last time out. That's not Champion Hurdle winning form, and he's overlooked.
By all accounts, Peddlers Cross will be taking on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle Chase, and even if he did re-route to the Champion Hurdle for some reason, he would have had far from an ideal prep, so I'm comfortable in bypassing this horse now.
Finally, I don't believe Zaidpour possesses the necessary class to be a Champion Hurdle winner. He has an admirable win to run ratio, but to me seems like a horse that can dominate lesser opposition, but when upped in class and when push comes to shove, he's not the horses I'd want to be pinning my hopes on.
That leaves a reduced shortlist of:
Binocular 10
Hurricane Fly 9
Grandouet 7
Zarkandar 6
Further thoughts to come on this final shortlist in due course.
Update: 10th March
Grandouet, who was a long range fancy of mine misses the race due to injury. Binocular to be respect on his last run and the fact he's benn there, done it before. However, having been very keen on him last year, I cannot now be sure whether Binocular will run his best race every time.
Zarkander did well to win the old Tote Gold Trophy and is also a Festival winner. The bet though has to be Hurricane Fly, who in his last several races races has looked pretty close to untouchable. Admittedly, no great price, but a winner is a winner. Backed him last year after Binocular's defection, and am staying with him once more.
Selection: Hurricane Fly
Managed to get the winner last year. The stats suggested Binocular last year, and he was my selection, but on hearing about him being a non runner, my next best selection was Hurricane Fly who duly obliged.
Let's see what the stats say this season:
1 Preferred age 6-8
2 24 of 28 winners won last time out (consider this very important)
3 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (a fairly recent run has been very important)
4 9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (it's good to be a bit 'battle hardened' if you're going to win this race)
5 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle
6 9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (there's little substitute for experience)
7 previous Cheltenham winning form is a positive
8 a win during the current season is highly desirable
Ranking all of the current field in terms of these stats gives a ranking as follows:
Binocular 8
Celestial Halo 7
Hurricane Fly 7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Thousand Stars 7
Grandouet 6
Zaidpour 6
Clerk´s Choice 5
Final Approach 5
Olofi 5
Peddlers Cross 5
Zarkandar 5
Brampour 4
Oscars Well 4
Overturn 4
So Young 4
Starluck 4
Staying Article 4
Kalann 3
Rock On Ruby 3
I would be keen to go a stage further, and add an additional bonus point to those horses who won last time out, and another to those horses who have shown sufficient class to win a geade 1 hurdle outside of novice company.
The revised ranking is then as follows:
Binocular 10
Hurricane Fly 9
Thousand Stars 8
Celestial Halo 7
Grandouet 7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Zaidpour 7
Peddlers Cross 6
Zarkandar 6
Clerk´s Choice 5
Final Approach 5
Olofi 5
Overturn 5
So Young 5
Brampour 4
Oscars Well 4
Starluck 4
Staying Article 4
Kalann 3
Rock On Ruby 3
This gives a basic ranking based on the stats I have selected. I'm quite happy to cut the field down by half by eliminating all those horses who received a score of lower than 6, which leaves a field of as follows:
Binocular 10
Hurricane Fly 9
Thousand Stars 8
Celestial Halo 7
Grandouet 7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Zaidpour 7
Peddlers Cross 6
Zarkandar 6
So, who can I happily discard now.
Well, first to go is Celestial Halo. Despite being an admirable horse, most would agree that the horse now lacks the gears to win a Champion Hurdle. Brushed aside by Binocular yesterday, Celestial Halo would have suffered the same fate at the hands of Grandouet earlier in the season, had the latter not taken a tumble. Second to get the chop is Mikael D´Haguenet. Despite recapturing some of his verve this season with a couple of wins, the horse has never really reached the heights that his novice form suggested he might, and it would be a great leap of faith to suggest he could win the blue riband event this season (also readily beaten by Mourad today albeit over a longer trip). Trainer may also be having second thoughts about travelling over after today.
I thought Thousand Stars was going to make up into a really decent staying hurdler this season, but he's been campaigned over shorter trips. A very good front running performance first time out this season suggested big things were to come from this horse, but he's been relatively disappointing since then, being outpointed by Unaccompanied, then brushed aside 10 lengths by Hurricane Fly last time out. That's not Champion Hurdle winning form, and he's overlooked.
By all accounts, Peddlers Cross will be taking on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle Chase, and even if he did re-route to the Champion Hurdle for some reason, he would have had far from an ideal prep, so I'm comfortable in bypassing this horse now.
Finally, I don't believe Zaidpour possesses the necessary class to be a Champion Hurdle winner. He has an admirable win to run ratio, but to me seems like a horse that can dominate lesser opposition, but when upped in class and when push comes to shove, he's not the horses I'd want to be pinning my hopes on.
That leaves a reduced shortlist of:
Binocular 10
Hurricane Fly 9
Grandouet 7
Zarkandar 6
Further thoughts to come on this final shortlist in due course.
Update: 10th March
Grandouet, who was a long range fancy of mine misses the race due to injury. Binocular to be respect on his last run and the fact he's benn there, done it before. However, having been very keen on him last year, I cannot now be sure whether Binocular will run his best race every time.
Zarkander did well to win the old Tote Gold Trophy and is also a Festival winner. The bet though has to be Hurricane Fly, who in his last several races races has looked pretty close to untouchable. Admittedly, no great price, but a winner is a winner. Backed him last year after Binocular's defection, and am staying with him once more.
Selection: Hurricane Fly
came to the same conclusions - only two that I could back and at the prices it has to be Binocular even though taking on the Fly is scary
TUE 13 MAR 2012
Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)
3m7f Number of runners: 41
5 of 7 winners won on their last run over fences
6 of 7 winners had run in past 40 days
6 of 7 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
7 of 7 winners had run at least 11 times over fences
6 of 7 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
6 of 7 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had won over 2M 6F & been placed in 3 of 4 runs over CD)
5 of 7 winners had previously won or placed over this CD (1 exception was having first start and other fell on only run on the Cross Country course)
7 of 7 winners had an OR > 126
5 of 7 winners carried 10-8 or more
6 of 7 winners were priced 13/2 or below and came from first 3 in the betting
7 of 7 winners have been in the age range 9-12
NO. HORSE AGE WGT
147317 Uncle Junior95 11 11-12
631441 Scotsirish37 11 11-09
Feb-12 Garde Champetre37 13 11-08
81-F03 Sizing Australia31 10 11-01
3215U2 Halley52 5 11-00
88500 Dancing Tornado45 11 10-13
15P0O Balthazar King95 8 10-09
540O40 A New Story16 14 10-09
346519 Double Dizzy52 11 10-08
17P-1 Midnight Haze96 10 10-07
8-13P1 Fortification18 9 10-06
344664 Jacks Island37 9 10-05
4-151P Maljimar175 12 10-05
32P33P Tally Em Up19 9 10-05
PP8-90 Dream Alliance73 11 10-04
P24U64 Some Target24 8 10-01
8/P26O 12 Wedger Pardy95 11 10-01
7-4P19 11 Gone To Lunch129 12 10-00
0-P242 10 Saddlers Storm30 10 9-12
P-2UP6 9 Ballyfitz24 12 9-11
65485 8 De Danu37 9 9-11
2558 7 Chamirey24 9 9-11
4P344 6 Arabella Boy20 7 9-10
29-3U 5 Heads Onthe Ground37 15 9-07
0FPR65 4 Glenstal Abbey4 8 9-04
590320 3 Askmeroe54 9 9-02
P1814P 2 Somatic123 8 9-00
708-63 1 Doctor Pat23P 8 8-13
Using the 11 stats / trends above, I added one point every time a horse satisfied one of the criteria.
I then 'weighted' this to give gretaer importsnace to the most compelling stats (i.e. those with the highest % of occurence).
This is the ranking I came up with, and I will be basing my selection on this ranking, as I don't have a really strong opinion about this race.
Sizing Australia 8.71
Scotsirish 8.57
Uncle Junior 7.00
Garde Champetre 6.86
Midnight Haze 6.29
Fortification 6.29
Saddlers Storm 5.57
Dancing Tornado 5.43
Chamirey 5.43
A New Story 5.14
Jacks Island 4.71
Tally Em Up 4.71
Dream Alliance 4.71
Wedger Pardy 4.71
Gone To Lunch 4.71
Ballyfitz 4.71
De Danu 4.71
Double Dizzy 4.57
Maljimar 4.57
Balthazar King 4.43
Some Target 3.71
Halley 3.57
Arabella Boy 3.57
Doctor Pat 3.57
Heads Onthe Ground 3.43
Askmeroe 2.86
Glenstal Abbey 1.71
Somatic 0.86
Selection: Sizing Australia
Might put him in an exacta with Scotsirish.
Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)
3m7f Number of runners: 41
5 of 7 winners won on their last run over fences
6 of 7 winners had run in past 40 days
6 of 7 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
7 of 7 winners had run at least 11 times over fences
6 of 7 winners had run in no more than 11 handicap chases
6 of 7 winners had won over 3M+ (exception had won over 2M 6F & been placed in 3 of 4 runs over CD)
5 of 7 winners had previously won or placed over this CD (1 exception was having first start and other fell on only run on the Cross Country course)
7 of 7 winners had an OR > 126
5 of 7 winners carried 10-8 or more
6 of 7 winners were priced 13/2 or below and came from first 3 in the betting
7 of 7 winners have been in the age range 9-12
NO. HORSE AGE WGT
147317 Uncle Junior95 11 11-12
631441 Scotsirish37 11 11-09
Feb-12 Garde Champetre37 13 11-08
81-F03 Sizing Australia31 10 11-01
3215U2 Halley52 5 11-00
88500 Dancing Tornado45 11 10-13
15P0O Balthazar King95 8 10-09
540O40 A New Story16 14 10-09
346519 Double Dizzy52 11 10-08
17P-1 Midnight Haze96 10 10-07
8-13P1 Fortification18 9 10-06
344664 Jacks Island37 9 10-05
4-151P Maljimar175 12 10-05
32P33P Tally Em Up19 9 10-05
PP8-90 Dream Alliance73 11 10-04
P24U64 Some Target24 8 10-01
8/P26O 12 Wedger Pardy95 11 10-01
7-4P19 11 Gone To Lunch129 12 10-00
0-P242 10 Saddlers Storm30 10 9-12
P-2UP6 9 Ballyfitz24 12 9-11
65485 8 De Danu37 9 9-11
2558 7 Chamirey24 9 9-11
4P344 6 Arabella Boy20 7 9-10
29-3U 5 Heads Onthe Ground37 15 9-07
0FPR65 4 Glenstal Abbey4 8 9-04
590320 3 Askmeroe54 9 9-02
P1814P 2 Somatic123 8 9-00
708-63 1 Doctor Pat23P 8 8-13
Using the 11 stats / trends above, I added one point every time a horse satisfied one of the criteria.
I then 'weighted' this to give gretaer importsnace to the most compelling stats (i.e. those with the highest % of occurence).
This is the ranking I came up with, and I will be basing my selection on this ranking, as I don't have a really strong opinion about this race.
Sizing Australia 8.71
Scotsirish 8.57
Uncle Junior 7.00
Garde Champetre 6.86
Midnight Haze 6.29
Fortification 6.29
Saddlers Storm 5.57
Dancing Tornado 5.43
Chamirey 5.43
A New Story 5.14
Jacks Island 4.71
Tally Em Up 4.71
Dream Alliance 4.71
Wedger Pardy 4.71
Gone To Lunch 4.71
Ballyfitz 4.71
De Danu 4.71
Double Dizzy 4.57
Maljimar 4.57
Balthazar King 4.43
Some Target 3.71
Halley 3.57
Arabella Boy 3.57
Doctor Pat 3.57
Heads Onthe Ground 3.43
Askmeroe 2.86
Glenstal Abbey 1.71
Somatic 0.86
Selection: Sizing Australia
Might put him in an exacta with Scotsirish.
Haven't really done many handicaps yet, waiting for the decs to cut the workload down
Understand....am up against time constraints to get mine finished before setting off Monday lunchtime.
I agree with the X-country selections - an easy dutch bet imo
JOCI
you are like a nachine, I think everyone who reads these threads I think you call them owes you a real big thank you, your analysis is well thought out and your marking systems are excellant. I have already backed a whole host of horses, a considerable number are not running, but I will be using a lot of your work added to my own thoughts to come up with some decent bets, I think this year I will also go for a placepot on day one with a number of horses in each race, what would you include on day one, perhaps other people will throw up what they think and we could see how we get on. Thanks again for all your hard work, it makes a really good read.
you are like a nachine, I think everyone who reads these threads I think you call them owes you a real big thank you, your analysis is well thought out and your marking systems are excellant. I have already backed a whole host of horses, a considerable number are not running, but I will be using a lot of your work added to my own thoughts to come up with some decent bets, I think this year I will also go for a placepot on day one with a number of horses in each race, what would you include on day one, perhaps other people will throw up what they think and we could see how we get on. Thanks again for all your hard work, it makes a really good read.
Cheers - I'm just basing stuff on trends that other perople have been good enough to put up on other sites etc, so credit to those guys. Hope you can make a few quid. It's quite time consuming doing the work but I like the analytical approach and it helps focus the mind.
THU 15 MAR 2012
Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)CH4
2m5f Number of runners:
15 of the last 17 winners carried no more than 11 stone
Only 1 winning favourite since 1981
21 of the last 23 winners were rated no higher than 141
18 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
11 of the last 13 winners had run more than 16 times over fences
The last 11 winners started at double price figures
9 of the last 11 favourites finished unplaced
Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951
16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival before
Step 1 - Eliminate horses rated 141 and higher
FORM HORSE AGE
F6-140 Great Endeavour96 8
1446453 Tartak47 9
165-21 Giorgio Quercus54 7
541-19 Rebel Du Maquis232 7
U1231 Champion Court74 7
456951 Cannington Brook26 8
11188/ Jack The Giant706 10
13232 Hector´s Choice19 8
83134 Consigliere19 9
214712 Micheal Flips27 8
211323 Notus De La Tour46 6
61-B03 Matuhi74 9
7010F Finger Onthe Pulse96 11
13-892 Dan Breen12 7
5F94U2 Tullamore Dew26 10
8P-50 Crack Away Jack26 8
112111 Hunt Ball19 7
1-P3U0 Divers33 8
2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11
F5U3P Gilbarry54 7
8112/0 Salut Flo96 7
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8
732380 Mad Moose26 8
P2332 Ackertac54 7
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10
5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7
11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8
P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9
125743 14 Rileyev12 7
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6
51318 12 Carpincho47 8
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6
1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9
2-1345 9 Bottman47 7
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8
94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9
Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9
412PP 3 Free World123 10
P-P457 2 Plein Pouvoir13 9
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8
Step 2
Eliminate horses finishing outside of the top 4 last time out (completed starts)
FORM HORSE AGE
2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11
F5U3P Gilbarry54 7
8112/0 Salut Flo96 7
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8
732380 Mad Moose26 8
P2332 Ackertac54 7
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10
5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7
11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8
P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9
125743 14 Rileyev12 7
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6
51318 12 Carpincho47 8
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6
1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9
2-1345 9 Bottman47 7
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8
94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9
Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9
412PP 3 Free World123 10
P-P457 2 Plein Pouvoir13 9
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8
FORM HORSE AGE
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8
P2332 Ackertac54 7
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8
125743 14 Rileyev12 7
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8
Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8
I've always found this one a tough nut to crack, but following a couple of the key trends, I've whittled the field down by eliminating those horses rated > 141, as the stats suggest they face a stiff challenge. Combine this with the requirement to have finished first 4 last time out, and you can get the field down to a manageable level. The one horse of the remainder that really stood out for me was Quincy Des Pictons, not so much due to a thorough examination of the trends, but more so with the manner of his last couple of wide margin victories.
Given that we're a long way from being certain about running plans, I had a small bet on him to bring home the bacon.
Selection: Quincy Des Pictons
In fact, after watching Quincy Des Pictons last couple of races, and due to the fact that he has another entry in the JLT Specialty Chase, I went and had a few quid on him for that too (where's he's trading a little shorter).
Will need to look at this race again when the final decs are out, but at this stage, Quincy is the one for me.
Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)CH4
2m5f Number of runners:
15 of the last 17 winners carried no more than 11 stone
Only 1 winning favourite since 1981
21 of the last 23 winners were rated no higher than 141
18 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
11 of the last 13 winners had run more than 16 times over fences
The last 11 winners started at double price figures
9 of the last 11 favourites finished unplaced
Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951
16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival before
Step 1 - Eliminate horses rated 141 and higher
FORM HORSE AGE
F6-140 Great Endeavour96 8
1446453 Tartak47 9
165-21 Giorgio Quercus54 7
541-19 Rebel Du Maquis232 7
U1231 Champion Court74 7
456951 Cannington Brook26 8
11188/ Jack The Giant706 10
13232 Hector´s Choice19 8
83134 Consigliere19 9
214712 Micheal Flips27 8
211323 Notus De La Tour46 6
61-B03 Matuhi74 9
7010F Finger Onthe Pulse96 11
13-892 Dan Breen12 7
5F94U2 Tullamore Dew26 10
8P-50 Crack Away Jack26 8
112111 Hunt Ball19 7
1-P3U0 Divers33 8
2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11
F5U3P Gilbarry54 7
8112/0 Salut Flo96 7
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8
732380 Mad Moose26 8
P2332 Ackertac54 7
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10
5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7
11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8
P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9
125743 14 Rileyev12 7
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6
51318 12 Carpincho47 8
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6
1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9
2-1345 9 Bottman47 7
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8
94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9
Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9
412PP 3 Free World123 10
P-P457 2 Plein Pouvoir13 9
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8
Step 2
Eliminate horses finishing outside of the top 4 last time out (completed starts)
FORM HORSE AGE
2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11
F5U3P Gilbarry54 7
8112/0 Salut Flo96 7
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8
732380 Mad Moose26 8
P2332 Ackertac54 7
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10
5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7
11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8
P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9
125743 14 Rileyev12 7
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6
51318 12 Carpincho47 8
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6
1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9
2-1345 9 Bottman47 7
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8
94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9
Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9
412PP 3 Free World123 10
P-P457 2 Plein Pouvoir13 9
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8
FORM HORSE AGE
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8
P2332 Ackertac54 7
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8
125743 14 Rileyev12 7
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8
Apr-72 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8
I've always found this one a tough nut to crack, but following a couple of the key trends, I've whittled the field down by eliminating those horses rated > 141, as the stats suggest they face a stiff challenge. Combine this with the requirement to have finished first 4 last time out, and you can get the field down to a manageable level. The one horse of the remainder that really stood out for me was Quincy Des Pictons, not so much due to a thorough examination of the trends, but more so with the manner of his last couple of wide margin victories.
Given that we're a long way from being certain about running plans, I had a small bet on him to bring home the bacon.
Selection: Quincy Des Pictons
In fact, after watching Quincy Des Pictons last couple of races, and due to the fact that he has another entry in the JLT Specialty Chase, I went and had a few quid on him for that too (where's he's trading a little shorter).
Will need to look at this race again when the final decs are out, but at this stage, Quincy is the one for me.
my two selections are on your short list JOCI, need to see if they make the cut. Can you guess who they are?
won too frequently and got slung up the weights, possibly? need to look closer, who trains it too? Alan Jones who the hell is he? And horse been winning wide margins on soft going which I am always wary of... not for me mate but wtf do I know?
OK looks like he might still have a bit in hand to me.
on soft I might agree but on the likely going I think he will be scupered. Is a son of the French sire Kadalko and they all want soft. But at the prices in this race you can back 3 or 4 wih no worries
Yep, another race to have a look at on the day, but nice if you can get a big price in advance.
in fact if you go NRNB you can back most of the ones on the long short list as some of them wont get in you will get your money back, and those that do get in you might be able to trade at lower prices
FRI 16 MAR 2012
Christie´s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (CLASS 2) (5yo+)CH4
3m2f110y
Horses aged 6 to 10 have a combined record of 9-10-138
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6)
NO. HORSE
43111 Amicelli27P
7P-11 Barbers Shop19
111-52 Blackstaff28
P11-13 Border Fusion12P
472-61 Boxer Georg43
12-521 Bradley28
37-11 Chapoturgeon26P
448/21 Cloudy Lane31
111P1 Count Salazar19P
1F-P1F Description27
0/1122 Eleazar28
11-121 Enter Paradise28
44P11 For The Staff26P
1UF-44 Herons Well28
U-3PP4 Joaaci13P
11P1- Just Amazing341
1-3F14 Keenan´s Future264
4-211U Lorikarad23
1-P111 Merchant Royal57
1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50
161244 Not Before Eight33
35O119 Oca De Thaix15
P1221 Offshore Account26P
1/14-3 On The Fringe33
24282 Oscar Delta19P
211-P1 Picaroon13P
1B/11- Roulez Cool657
11S111 Rowdy Rampage224
112P1 Salsify33
1-F33P Surenaga27
1211U1 Tammys Hill26P
255F4 The General Lee15
F-9442 Turko27
532221 Up There19P
111F1 My Flora26P
11-363 Theatre Diva15
Step 1
Eliminate horses not finishing in the first 3 last time out (completed starts)
NO. HORSE
43111 Amicelli27P
7P-11 Barbers Shop19
111-52 Blackstaff28
P11-13 Border Fusion12P
472-61 Boxer Georg43
12-521 Bradley28
37-11 Chapoturgeon26P
448/21 Cloudy Lane31
111P1 Count Salazar19P
1F-P1F Description27
0/1122 Eleazar28
11-121 Enter Paradise28
44P11 For The Staff26P
1UF-44 Herons Well28
U-3PP4 Joaaci13P
11P1- Just Amazing341
1-3F14 Keenan´s Future264
4-211U Lorikarad23
1-P111 Merchant Royal57
1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50
161244 Not Before Eight33
35O119 Oca De Thaix15
P1221 Offshore Account26P
1/14-3 On The Fringe33
24282 Oscar Delta19P
211-P1 Picaroon13P
1B/11- Roulez Cool657
11S111 Rowdy Rampage224
112P1 Salsify33
1-F33P Surenaga27
1211U1 Tammys Hill26P
255F4 The General Lee15
F-9442 Turko27
532221 Up There19P
111F1 My Flora26P
11-363 Theatre Diva15
Step 2
Eliminate horses not aged 6 to 10 years old
NO. HORSE
43111 Amicelli27P
7P-11 Barbers Shop19
111-52 Blackstaff28
P11-13 Border Fusion12P
472-61 Boxer Georg43
12-521 Bradley28
37-11 Chapoturgeon26P
448/21 Cloudy Lane31
111P1 Count Salazar19P
1F-P1F Description27
0/1122 Eleazar28
11-121 Enter Paradise28
44P11 For The Staff26P
11P1- Just Amazing341
4-211U Lorikarad23
1-P111 Merchant Royal57
1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50
P1221 Offshore Account26P
1/14-3 On The Fringe33
24282 Oscar Delta19P
211-P1 Picaroon13P
1B/11- Roulez Cool657
11S111 Rowdy Rampage224
112P1 Salsify33
1211U1 Tammys Hill26P
F-9442 Turko27
532221 Up There19P
111F1 My Flora26P
11-363 Theatre Diva15
Step 3
Eliminate horses not having won over 3m+ (rules out Chapoturgeon!)
NO. HORSE
7P-11 Barbers Shop19
111-52 Blackstaff28
472-61 Boxer Georg43
12-521 Bradley28
37-11 Chapoturgeon26P
111P1 Count Salazar19P
1F-P1F Description27
11-121 Enter Paradise28
44P11 For The Staff26P
11P1- Just Amazing341
4-211U Lorikarad23
1-P111 Merchant Royal57
1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50
1/14-3 On The Fringe33
24282 Oscar Delta19P
211-P1 Picaroon13P
1B/11- Roulez Cool657
11S111 Rowdy Rampage224
112P1 Salsify33
1211U1 Tammys Hill26P
F-9442 Turko27
111F1 My Flora26P
Step 4
Rankings
At this stage I did a weighted average ranking based on the following factors:
6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6)
The rankings came out as follows:
Barbers Shop 4.80
Bradley 4.80
My Flora 4.80
Enter Paradise 4.20
On The Fringe 4.20
Salsify 4.00
Just Amazing 3.90
Roulez Cool 3.90
Rowdy Rampage 3.90
Cut-off point
Oscar Delta 3.60
Count Salazar 3.40
For The Staff 3.40
Tammys Hill 3.40
Boxer Georg 3.30
Description 3.30
Turko 3.30
Merchant Royal 3.10
Blackstaff 2.80
Monker Tunkerty 2.50
Choosing a cut-off point of 3.9 points, my intial shortlist was reduced to:
Barbers Shop 4.80
Bradley 4.80
My Flora 4.80
Enter Paradise 4.20
On The Fringe 4.20
Salsify 4.00
Just Amazing 3.90
Roulez Cool 3.90
Rowdy Rampage 3.90
A bit of qualitative judgment now:
I find it hard to see either Roulez Cool or Just Amazing overcoming absences of 657 and 341 days respectively.
Looking at some collateral form, a couple of the above shortlist have been well beaten or held by others in this race, so are rejected. These would be My Flora - well held by Chapoturgeon last time out, Bradley - should be well held by Monkerty Tunkerty & Enter Paradise (beaten well by My Flora). Finally, I'm going to drop On The Fringe after failing to win last time out (beaten by Salsify, but not by too much and givign a bit of weight).
This leaves me with a final shortlist of:
7P-11 Barbers Shop
11S111 Rowdy Rampage
112P1 Salsify
I've backed Barbers Shop & Salsify so far.
Barbers Shop has the best 'older' form of all the horses in the field, and could take some pegging back if he recaptures his old sparkle, and he's won his last 2 since switching to Hunter Chases.
Salsify won nicely last time out and also won the Irish Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase back in May which is often a good pointer to this race.
I will take a look at Rowdy Rampage should he line up on the day, as seems to have done nothing wrong, and might be able to run a nice race at a decent price.
I must confess, am a little worried by Chapoturgeon, as seems to be in good form, but the fact he's not won over the trip kicks him out.
Christie´s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (CLASS 2) (5yo+)CH4
3m2f110y
Horses aged 6 to 10 have a combined record of 9-10-138
8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6)
NO. HORSE
43111 Amicelli27P
7P-11 Barbers Shop19
111-52 Blackstaff28
P11-13 Border Fusion12P
472-61 Boxer Georg43
12-521 Bradley28
37-11 Chapoturgeon26P
448/21 Cloudy Lane31
111P1 Count Salazar19P
1F-P1F Description27
0/1122 Eleazar28
11-121 Enter Paradise28
44P11 For The Staff26P
1UF-44 Herons Well28
U-3PP4 Joaaci13P
11P1- Just Amazing341
1-3F14 Keenan´s Future264
4-211U Lorikarad23
1-P111 Merchant Royal57
1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50
161244 Not Before Eight33
35O119 Oca De Thaix15
P1221 Offshore Account26P
1/14-3 On The Fringe33
24282 Oscar Delta19P
211-P1 Picaroon13P
1B/11- Roulez Cool657
11S111 Rowdy Rampage224
112P1 Salsify33
1-F33P Surenaga27
1211U1 Tammys Hill26P
255F4 The General Lee15
F-9442 Turko27
532221 Up There19P
111F1 My Flora26P
11-363 Theatre Diva15
Step 1
Eliminate horses not finishing in the first 3 last time out (completed starts)
NO. HORSE
43111 Amicelli27P
7P-11 Barbers Shop19
111-52 Blackstaff28
P11-13 Border Fusion12P
472-61 Boxer Georg43
12-521 Bradley28
37-11 Chapoturgeon26P
448/21 Cloudy Lane31
111P1 Count Salazar19P
1F-P1F Description27
0/1122 Eleazar28
11-121 Enter Paradise28
44P11 For The Staff26P
1UF-44 Herons Well28
U-3PP4 Joaaci13P
11P1- Just Amazing341
1-3F14 Keenan´s Future264
4-211U Lorikarad23
1-P111 Merchant Royal57
1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50
161244 Not Before Eight33
35O119 Oca De Thaix15
P1221 Offshore Account26P
1/14-3 On The Fringe33
24282 Oscar Delta19P
211-P1 Picaroon13P
1B/11- Roulez Cool657
11S111 Rowdy Rampage224
112P1 Salsify33
1-F33P Surenaga27
1211U1 Tammys Hill26P
255F4 The General Lee15
F-9442 Turko27
532221 Up There19P
111F1 My Flora26P
11-363 Theatre Diva15
Step 2
Eliminate horses not aged 6 to 10 years old
NO. HORSE
43111 Amicelli27P
7P-11 Barbers Shop19
111-52 Blackstaff28
P11-13 Border Fusion12P
472-61 Boxer Georg43
12-521 Bradley28
37-11 Chapoturgeon26P
448/21 Cloudy Lane31
111P1 Count Salazar19P
1F-P1F Description27
0/1122 Eleazar28
11-121 Enter Paradise28
44P11 For The Staff26P
11P1- Just Amazing341
4-211U Lorikarad23
1-P111 Merchant Royal57
1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50
P1221 Offshore Account26P
1/14-3 On The Fringe33
24282 Oscar Delta19P
211-P1 Picaroon13P
1B/11- Roulez Cool657
11S111 Rowdy Rampage224
112P1 Salsify33
1211U1 Tammys Hill26P
F-9442 Turko27
532221 Up There19P
111F1 My Flora26P
11-363 Theatre Diva15
Step 3
Eliminate horses not having won over 3m+ (rules out Chapoturgeon!)
NO. HORSE
7P-11 Barbers Shop19
111-52 Blackstaff28
472-61 Boxer Georg43
12-521 Bradley28
37-11 Chapoturgeon26P
111P1 Count Salazar19P
1F-P1F Description27
11-121 Enter Paradise28
44P11 For The Staff26P
11P1- Just Amazing341
4-211U Lorikarad23
1-P111 Merchant Royal57
1U-111 Monkerty Tunkerty50
1/14-3 On The Fringe33
24282 Oscar Delta19P
211-P1 Picaroon13P
1B/11- Roulez Cool657
11S111 Rowdy Rampage224
112P1 Salsify33
1211U1 Tammys Hill26P
F-9442 Turko27
111F1 My Flora26P
Step 4
Rankings
At this stage I did a weighted average ranking based on the following factors:
6 of 10 winners (last 4) won last time out
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (4 exceptions had run in less than 7 chases)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 3 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6)
The rankings came out as follows:
Barbers Shop 4.80
Bradley 4.80
My Flora 4.80
Enter Paradise 4.20
On The Fringe 4.20
Salsify 4.00
Just Amazing 3.90
Roulez Cool 3.90
Rowdy Rampage 3.90
Cut-off point
Oscar Delta 3.60
Count Salazar 3.40
For The Staff 3.40
Tammys Hill 3.40
Boxer Georg 3.30
Description 3.30
Turko 3.30
Merchant Royal 3.10
Blackstaff 2.80
Monker Tunkerty 2.50
Choosing a cut-off point of 3.9 points, my intial shortlist was reduced to:
Barbers Shop 4.80
Bradley 4.80
My Flora 4.80
Enter Paradise 4.20
On The Fringe 4.20
Salsify 4.00
Just Amazing 3.90
Roulez Cool 3.90
Rowdy Rampage 3.90
A bit of qualitative judgment now:
I find it hard to see either Roulez Cool or Just Amazing overcoming absences of 657 and 341 days respectively.
Looking at some collateral form, a couple of the above shortlist have been well beaten or held by others in this race, so are rejected. These would be My Flora - well held by Chapoturgeon last time out, Bradley - should be well held by Monkerty Tunkerty & Enter Paradise (beaten well by My Flora). Finally, I'm going to drop On The Fringe after failing to win last time out (beaten by Salsify, but not by too much and givign a bit of weight).
This leaves me with a final shortlist of:
7P-11 Barbers Shop
11S111 Rowdy Rampage
112P1 Salsify
I've backed Barbers Shop & Salsify so far.
Barbers Shop has the best 'older' form of all the horses in the field, and could take some pegging back if he recaptures his old sparkle, and he's won his last 2 since switching to Hunter Chases.
Salsify won nicely last time out and also won the Irish Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase back in May which is often a good pointer to this race.
I will take a look at Rowdy Rampage should he line up on the day, as seems to have done nothing wrong, and might be able to run a nice race at a decent price.
I must confess, am a little worried by Chapoturgeon, as seems to be in good form, but the fact he's not won over the trip kicks him out.
The long Rowdy Rampage absence though is a big negative.
TUE 13 MAR 2012
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Link to latest card:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546179&r_date=2012-03-13&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_
FORM HORSE
11-113 Al Ferof
0-1321 Astracad
1-35 Bagber
634356 Baily Green
26115 Blackstairmountain
1-11F1 Bog Warrior
210-P1 Call The Police
6257-1 Cristal Bonus
2-1U21 Cue Card
16-2U5 Escort´men
323137 Foildubh
0-F222 For Non Stop
2-1F11 Kid Cassidy
12122 Kumbeshwar
11244 Lucky William
4U411F Menorah
12232 Nearest The Pin
21-151 Pacha Du Polder
27-112 Peddlers Cross
F1-F2 Realt Mor
P-8551 Sanctuaire
33-141 Shot From The Hip
11-111 Sir Des Champs
113-11 Sprinter Sacre
12700P Tajweed
733214 Zaynar
8111U1 Alasi
This is a preliminary analysis given the Game Spirit Chase has been re-scheduled for next week.
Below are most of the key factors that need to be considered when looking for the winner of the Arkle, the championship for the speedster novice chasers on Day 1 of the Festival. In last year's preview, this method narrowed down the field to three runners, Captain Chris (winner), Finian's Rainbow and Medermit. Sadly, my final selection was Medermit.
The key trends seem to revolve around age (7 year olds preferred), recent form over fences, and prior hurdles form. I have selected the 8 factors below, and assigned 1 point if a horse satifies the trend, and zero points if the horse fails to satisfy the trend.
(1) 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5 (only included 8 year olds if they had won a grade 1 over hurdles).
(2) 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
(3) 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases
(4) 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
(5) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
(6) 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
(7) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune)
(8) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
So, a horse satisfying all trends could earn a maximum of 8 points, whilst a horse satifying no trends would get 0 points. Here are the findings:
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Peddlers Cross 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Zaynar 6
Blackstairmountain 5
For Non Stop 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4
Bog Warrior 3
Escort´men 3
Realt Mor 3
Alasi 3
Astracad 2
Call The Police 2
Nearest The Pin 2
Bagber 1
Baily Green 1
Lucky William 1
Pacha Du Polder 1
Tajweed 1
Foildubh 0
As a first elimination stage, I would have little hesitation in eliminating those horses with a score of 3 or less. This includes Bog Warrior, who has been the subject of support on this forum. I don't feel his hurdles form gives him a chance of winning this, and also given the comments from the trainer around his participation, I'm not losing any sleep over passing him by. This leaves us a much reduced field of 14 to concentrate on.
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Peddlers Cross 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
For Non Stop 5
Blackstairmountain 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Zaynar 6
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4
More to follow, when I will hone in on what I consider to be the key trends and the other form factors, and also when we learn more, should the Game Spirit Chase get the go-ahead.
After the recent forfeit stage, the shortlisted horses remaining are listed below (lost For Non Stop, Kumbeshwar, Sanctuaire, Zaynar & Shot From The Hip).
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Peddlers Cross 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Blackstairmountain 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Update March 11th
Final shortlist based on latest declarations:
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Blackstairmountain 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
I've tried to find a compelling reason why Sprinter Sacre shouldn't be winning this and I can't really find one. Al Ferof to probably stay on up the hill to follow him home.
Selection: Sprinter Sacre
Let's hope he's the real deal and the next great chaser to hit the scene!
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Link to latest card:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546179&r_date=2012-03-13&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_
FORM HORSE
11-113 Al Ferof
0-1321 Astracad
1-35 Bagber
634356 Baily Green
26115 Blackstairmountain
1-11F1 Bog Warrior
210-P1 Call The Police
6257-1 Cristal Bonus
2-1U21 Cue Card
16-2U5 Escort´men
323137 Foildubh
0-F222 For Non Stop
2-1F11 Kid Cassidy
12122 Kumbeshwar
11244 Lucky William
4U411F Menorah
12232 Nearest The Pin
21-151 Pacha Du Polder
27-112 Peddlers Cross
F1-F2 Realt Mor
P-8551 Sanctuaire
33-141 Shot From The Hip
11-111 Sir Des Champs
113-11 Sprinter Sacre
12700P Tajweed
733214 Zaynar
8111U1 Alasi
This is a preliminary analysis given the Game Spirit Chase has been re-scheduled for next week.
Below are most of the key factors that need to be considered when looking for the winner of the Arkle, the championship for the speedster novice chasers on Day 1 of the Festival. In last year's preview, this method narrowed down the field to three runners, Captain Chris (winner), Finian's Rainbow and Medermit. Sadly, my final selection was Medermit.
The key trends seem to revolve around age (7 year olds preferred), recent form over fences, and prior hurdles form. I have selected the 8 factors below, and assigned 1 point if a horse satifies the trend, and zero points if the horse fails to satisfy the trend.
(1) 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5 (only included 8 year olds if they had won a grade 1 over hurdles).
(2) 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
(3) 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases
(4) 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
(5) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
(6) 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
(7) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune)
(8) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
So, a horse satisfying all trends could earn a maximum of 8 points, whilst a horse satifying no trends would get 0 points. Here are the findings:
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Peddlers Cross 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Zaynar 6
Blackstairmountain 5
For Non Stop 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4
Bog Warrior 3
Escort´men 3
Realt Mor 3
Alasi 3
Astracad 2
Call The Police 2
Nearest The Pin 2
Bagber 1
Baily Green 1
Lucky William 1
Pacha Du Polder 1
Tajweed 1
Foildubh 0
As a first elimination stage, I would have little hesitation in eliminating those horses with a score of 3 or less. This includes Bog Warrior, who has been the subject of support on this forum. I don't feel his hurdles form gives him a chance of winning this, and also given the comments from the trainer around his participation, I'm not losing any sleep over passing him by. This leaves us a much reduced field of 14 to concentrate on.
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Peddlers Cross 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
For Non Stop 5
Blackstairmountain 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Zaynar 6
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4
More to follow, when I will hone in on what I consider to be the key trends and the other form factors, and also when we learn more, should the Game Spirit Chase get the go-ahead.
After the recent forfeit stage, the shortlisted horses remaining are listed below (lost For Non Stop, Kumbeshwar, Sanctuaire, Zaynar & Shot From The Hip).
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Peddlers Cross 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Blackstairmountain 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Update March 11th
Final shortlist based on latest declarations:
Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Blackstairmountain 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
I've tried to find a compelling reason why Sprinter Sacre shouldn't be winning this and I can't really find one. Al Ferof to probably stay on up the hill to follow him home.
Selection: Sprinter Sacre
Let's hope he's the real deal and the next great chaser to hit the scene!
WED 14 MAR 2012
Coral Cup (A Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
2m5f Number of runners:
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 9-24-182.
Horses aged 8 or older have a combined record of 1-6-87.
Horses officially rated 130 to 142 have won the last 4 renewals and filled 12 of 16 places in past 4 renewals.
7 of 10 winners won their last start over hurdles
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 runs
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
9 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 hurdles races
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 1 or 2 hurdles races that season (exception had yet to run over hurdles that season)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better hurdle
6 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded hurdle
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 2F+
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap hurdle (exception had won 2)
8 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race worth 12K+
There are still a cast of millions in this race, so we're really second guessing at the moment, but at this early stage, if you:
(a) eliminate horses that haven't run during the current season
(b) eliminate horses not aged 5 to 7
(c) eliminate horses outside the OR range 130-142
This narrow down the field considerably as shown below:
Step 1
Eliminate horses that haven't won so far in the current season (63)
P8171 Tenor Nivernais23 5 10-10
0-3214 First Fandango109 5 10-10
FP112 Nagpur20 6 10-10
153800 Batonnier46 6 10-09
51222P Scotsbrook Cloud25 7 10-08
611P26 75 Plan A46 5 10-08
223111 74 Tap Night11 5x 5 10-08
181341 73 Arab League75 7 10-07
80811 72 It´s A Gimme28 5 10-07
31144 70 Bally Legend17 7 10-07
113019 66 Abergavenny26 5 10-06
1321 63 Bourne25 6 10-06
0-1316 61 Knight Pass46 6 10-06
14-111 59 Poole Master12 5x 7 10-06
11117 58 Grandads Horse122 6 10-05
41121 57 Cape Dutch32 5 10-05
13424 56 Well Regarded60 7 10-05
235312 55 Cotillion32 6 10-05
25117 54 Ohio Gold60 6 10-05
12315 53 Make A Track46 6 10-05
13009 52 Street Entertainer55 5 10-05
116231 50 Ixora151 6 10-04
P11478 46 Court In Session33 7 10-03
85P211 45 Changing Times39 6 10-03
113 40 Perpetually122 6 10-01
100700 39 Martin Scruff17 6 10-01
351320 37 Double Ross26 6 10-01
230P-1 36 Fiulin24 7 10-01
Now of ths list above, many of them would struggle to get into the race, so the one that interests me most is Tenor Nivenais, who has the right weight and won last time out, has won over the right kind of distance.
Obviously, a race to focus on when you have the final field, but long range selection:
Tenor Nivenais
- currently 19.5 on here
Coral Cup (A Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
2m5f Number of runners:
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 9-24-182.
Horses aged 8 or older have a combined record of 1-6-87.
Horses officially rated 130 to 142 have won the last 4 renewals and filled 12 of 16 places in past 4 renewals.
7 of 10 winners won their last start over hurdles
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 runs
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
9 of 10 winners had previously won 2 to 4 hurdles races
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 1 or 2 hurdles races that season (exception had yet to run over hurdles that season)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better hurdle
6 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded hurdle
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 2F+
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap hurdles
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap hurdle (exception had won 2)
8 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers
9 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race worth 12K+
There are still a cast of millions in this race, so we're really second guessing at the moment, but at this early stage, if you:
(a) eliminate horses that haven't run during the current season
(b) eliminate horses not aged 5 to 7
(c) eliminate horses outside the OR range 130-142
This narrow down the field considerably as shown below:
Step 1
Eliminate horses that haven't won so far in the current season (63)
P8171 Tenor Nivernais23 5 10-10
0-3214 First Fandango109 5 10-10
FP112 Nagpur20 6 10-10
153800 Batonnier46 6 10-09
51222P Scotsbrook Cloud25 7 10-08
611P26 75 Plan A46 5 10-08
223111 74 Tap Night11 5x 5 10-08
181341 73 Arab League75 7 10-07
80811 72 It´s A Gimme28 5 10-07
31144 70 Bally Legend17 7 10-07
113019 66 Abergavenny26 5 10-06
1321 63 Bourne25 6 10-06
0-1316 61 Knight Pass46 6 10-06
14-111 59 Poole Master12 5x 7 10-06
11117 58 Grandads Horse122 6 10-05
41121 57 Cape Dutch32 5 10-05
13424 56 Well Regarded60 7 10-05
235312 55 Cotillion32 6 10-05
25117 54 Ohio Gold60 6 10-05
12315 53 Make A Track46 6 10-05
13009 52 Street Entertainer55 5 10-05
116231 50 Ixora151 6 10-04
P11478 46 Court In Session33 7 10-03
85P211 45 Changing Times39 6 10-03
113 40 Perpetually122 6 10-01
100700 39 Martin Scruff17 6 10-01
351320 37 Double Ross26 6 10-01
230P-1 36 Fiulin24 7 10-01
Now of ths list above, many of them would struggle to get into the race, so the one that interests me most is Tenor Nivenais, who has the right weight and won last time out, has won over the right kind of distance.
Obviously, a race to focus on when you have the final field, but long range selection:
Tenor Nivenais
- currently 19.5 on here
^ it's 33/1 with VC & Lads. All decent form on ground far softer than will encounter next week but GL.
by the way I strongly recommend you keep a list of all your strong qualifiers, ones that meet all the trends, that run but do not win
in my experience quite a few will win at Aintree. Few seasons ago I had Oedipe and Gwanako as qualifiers in the Jewson Novices handicap at Cheltenham and both got beat. They both won at Aintree and there have been many more.
in my experience quite a few will win at Aintree. Few seasons ago I had Oedipe and Gwanako as qualifiers in the Jewson Novices handicap at Cheltenham and both got beat. They both won at Aintree and there have been many more.
Good point judo. Sunnyhillboy was one that springs to mind, as a handicap hurdler.
thieveslikeus 11 Mar 12 15:58
battonier's form figures wrong?
Thanks for that - yes, right enough something went wrong with the cut and paste. I think I will add him alongside Tenor Nivenais now as ones to look out for if making the final field:
Tenor Nivenais & Batonnier
battonier's form figures wrong?
Thanks for that - yes, right enough something went wrong with the cut and paste. I think I will add him alongside Tenor Nivenais now as ones to look out for if making the final field:
Tenor Nivenais & Batonnier
WED 14 MAR 2012
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo)
2m110y Number of runners:
6 of 7 winners have been officially rated 124 or higher and they have also accounted for 21 of 28 places
5 of 7 winners won last time out (2 exceptions unplaced in grade 2)
6 of 7 winners had run 1 to 3 times over hurdles in GB&Ire
7 of 7 winners had run since start of February
7 of 7 winners had run in no more than one h'cap hurdle (5 were making h'cap debut and other 2 won their only handicap hurdle start)
5 of 7 winners had run on the flat (2 exceptions had first start in a hurdle in France)
3 of 3 winners that ran on flat in GB&Ire were rated 89+ and had run in a class 1 flat race
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners had yet to win over hurdles
Simply filtering on:
(a) Eliminate horses that failed to win last time out
(b) Eliminate horses with an OR of < 124
Leaves you with a pretty manageable shortlist.
731 Argocat55 4 11-08
3431 Edeymi27 4 11-07
425541 Kapga De Cerisy26 4 11-06
211 Kazlian64 4 11-02
F42F1 Vendor74 4 11-01
2111 Royal Bonsai41F 4 10-12
241 Lemon Drop Red28 4 10-11
341 30 Red Inca21 4 10-10
The two I am drawn to are Kazlian and Vendor.
Kazlian covers most of the trends, started out in France, would have been one of the better flat horses in this race, and is trained by David Pipe, which are all positives for me.
Vendor has been something of a talking horse and I might have a small cover bet on him
Selections : Kazlian & Vendor
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo)
2m110y Number of runners:
6 of 7 winners have been officially rated 124 or higher and they have also accounted for 21 of 28 places
5 of 7 winners won last time out (2 exceptions unplaced in grade 2)
6 of 7 winners had run 1 to 3 times over hurdles in GB&Ire
7 of 7 winners had run since start of February
7 of 7 winners had run in no more than one h'cap hurdle (5 were making h'cap debut and other 2 won their only handicap hurdle start)
5 of 7 winners had run on the flat (2 exceptions had first start in a hurdle in France)
3 of 3 winners that ran on flat in GB&Ire were rated 89+ and had run in a class 1 flat race
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners had yet to win over hurdles
Simply filtering on:
(a) Eliminate horses that failed to win last time out
(b) Eliminate horses with an OR of < 124
Leaves you with a pretty manageable shortlist.
731 Argocat55 4 11-08
3431 Edeymi27 4 11-07
425541 Kapga De Cerisy26 4 11-06
211 Kazlian64 4 11-02
F42F1 Vendor74 4 11-01
2111 Royal Bonsai41F 4 10-12
241 Lemon Drop Red28 4 10-11
341 30 Red Inca21 4 10-10
The two I am drawn to are Kazlian and Vendor.
Kazlian covers most of the trends, started out in France, would have been one of the better flat horses in this race, and is trained by David Pipe, which are all positives for me.
Vendor has been something of a talking horse and I might have a small cover bet on him
Selections : Kazlian & Vendor
So, where are we so far:
Tuesday
1:30 Montbazon @ 14 & Tetlami @ 16.5-18.5
2:05 Sprinter Sacre @ 2.1-2.16
2:40 Baile Anrai @ 18 & Blenheim Brook @ 28 (not confident either will be running now)
3:20 Hurricane Fly (will back on the day)
4:00 Sizing Australia @ 6 (may have saver on Scotsirish)
4:40 Quevega @ 1.66 (will be lumping on again if one or more of the above come in)
5:15 Bless The Wings @ 8.8 & Quincy Des Pictons @ 20
Wednesday
1:30 Teaforthree @ 8.4
2:05 Monksland @ 7
2:40 Join Together @ 10.5
3:20 Sizing Europe @ 2.04-2.1
4:00 no bet yet but will look at Tenor Nivenais & Batonnier if running on day
4:40 no bet yet but looking at Kazlian & Vendor
5:15 Clonbanan Lad @ 19-21 & Sir Johnson @ 20
Tuesday
1:30 Montbazon @ 14 & Tetlami @ 16.5-18.5
2:05 Sprinter Sacre @ 2.1-2.16
2:40 Baile Anrai @ 18 & Blenheim Brook @ 28 (not confident either will be running now)
3:20 Hurricane Fly (will back on the day)
4:00 Sizing Australia @ 6 (may have saver on Scotsirish)
4:40 Quevega @ 1.66 (will be lumping on again if one or more of the above come in)
5:15 Bless The Wings @ 8.8 & Quincy Des Pictons @ 20
Wednesday
1:30 Teaforthree @ 8.4
2:05 Monksland @ 7
2:40 Join Together @ 10.5
3:20 Sizing Europe @ 2.04-2.1
4:00 no bet yet but will look at Tenor Nivenais & Batonnier if running on day
4:40 no bet yet but looking at Kazlian & Vendor
5:15 Clonbanan Lad @ 19-21 & Sir Johnson @ 20
Brillant stuff Joci great read,even though still sifting thru Paul Jones book re handicaps.
Im on 7 on your selections,lets hope we are correct matey have a great week if going.
Im on 7 on your selections,lets hope we are correct matey have a great week if going.
Sorry re Coral if running Molotof stats stack up really well,as does Mcmanus runner nr bottom of weights so have to back now!
Molotof hasnt won over 2M 2F - 2M 6F which is a 9/10 stat and the only real negative for him.
Interesting one with Kazlian is that for the Fred Winter 7/7 were beaten first two starts over hurdles or hadnt even won before getting there. Kazlian won on second start.
Interesting one with Kazlian is that for the Fred Winter 7/7 were beaten first two starts over hurdles or hadnt even won before getting there. Kazlian won on second start.
KAZLIAN - thought this would need very soft ground to be anywhere near its best , but may not need to be .
An excellent read from the start .
May the gods be looking down on you next week . The very best of luck to ya sir .
An excellent read from the start .
May the gods be looking down on you next week . The very best of luck to ya sir .
This is brilliant JOCI :)
will every cheltenham race be covered in this thread>?
will every cheltenham race be covered in this thread>?
Probably unlikely now as I might have run out of time for some of the Thursday / Friday races. Takes quite a while to do each one. Might do another tonight, maybe one tomorrow before heading off to Cheltenham.
Jewson Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
11-113 Al Ferof54 7
1-11F1 Bog Warrior33 8
22111 Bold Sir Brian33 6
10-P12 Call The Police32 9
U1231 Champion Court74 7
257-11 Cristal Bonus19 6
221P2 Duke Of Lucca19 7
F2221 For Non Stop27 7
5012B2 Gift Of Dgab46 8
363053 Imperial Shabra11 8
18123 Lambro32 7
214712 Micheal Flips27 8
27-112 Peddlers Cross79 7
111211 Red Tanber12 9
11-111 Sir Des Champs47 6
75-112 Solix74 6
32144U Zaynar19 7
12122 Kumbeshwar47 5
Nothing in the way of trends to go on for the 'new' Jewson. The top 2 wont be running, so rule them out. Zaynar has had his limitations exposed.
The ones I'm focussing on are:
Champion Court & Solix (both have Cheltenham form and their form was boosted by Invictus)
For Non Stop - won nicley at Newbury last time out - if there was a horse you could almost guarantee would run into a place it would be this one
Peddlers Cross - could be very good, but a bit under a cloud after his injury, and taking in this rather than a battle over 2 miles with Sprinter Sacre
Sir Des Champs - unbeaten and with Cheltenham Festival experience under his belt
Will take a look a bit closer to the day, but the one that's calling to me at the moment is:
Sir Des Champs
11-113 Al Ferof54 7
1-11F1 Bog Warrior33 8
22111 Bold Sir Brian33 6
10-P12 Call The Police32 9
U1231 Champion Court74 7
257-11 Cristal Bonus19 6
221P2 Duke Of Lucca19 7
F2221 For Non Stop27 7
5012B2 Gift Of Dgab46 8
363053 Imperial Shabra11 8
18123 Lambro32 7
214712 Micheal Flips27 8
27-112 Peddlers Cross79 7
111211 Red Tanber12 9
11-111 Sir Des Champs47 6
75-112 Solix74 6
32144U Zaynar19 7
12122 Kumbeshwar47 5
Nothing in the way of trends to go on for the 'new' Jewson. The top 2 wont be running, so rule them out. Zaynar has had his limitations exposed.
The ones I'm focussing on are:
Champion Court & Solix (both have Cheltenham form and their form was boosted by Invictus)
For Non Stop - won nicley at Newbury last time out - if there was a horse you could almost guarantee would run into a place it would be this one
Peddlers Cross - could be very good, but a bit under a cloud after his injury, and taking in this rather than a battle over 2 miles with Sprinter Sacre
Sir Des Champs - unbeaten and with Cheltenham Festival experience under his belt
Will take a look a bit closer to the day, but the one that's calling to me at the moment is:
Sir Des Champs
Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4
Good 2m5f
8 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-9 or less
Horses officially rated 139 or less have won 7 of 8 runnings
9 of 10 winners finished in first 5 last time out (exception hadn't run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that season (exception hadn't run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 15 chases
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase that season
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 2M 2½F to 2M 5F
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a graded chase (3 exceptions having first run in a graded chase)
8 of 10 winners had a hurdles rating of 130+
10 of 10 winners had previously run at Cheltenham (4 had won, 4 had placed, 2 unplaced)
Potentially a very tough nut to crack, and due to time constraints, can only give this a 'quick and dirty' and will have a much more thorough look when sipping a few alses in the boozer in Bishops Cleeve on Wednesday night!
F6-140 Great Endeavour96 8
1446453 Tartak47 9
165-21 Giorgio Quercus54 7
541-19 Rebel Du Maquis232 7
U1231 Champion Court74 7
456951 Cannington Brook26 8
11188/ Jack The Giant706 10
13232 Hector´s Choice19 8
83134 Consigliere19 9
214712 Micheal Flips27 8
211323 Notus De La Tour46 6
61-B03 Matuhi74 9
7010F Finger Onthe Pulse96 11
13-892 Dan Breen12 7
5F94U2 Tullamore Dew26 10
8P-50 Crack Away Jack26 8
112111 Hunt Ball19 7
1-P3U0 Divers33 8
2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11
F5U3P Gilbarry54 7
8112/0 Salut Flo96 7
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8
732380 Mad Moose26 8
P2332 Ackertac54 7
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10
5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7
11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8
P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9
125743 14 Rileyev12 7
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6
51318 12 Carpincho47 8
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6
1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9
2-1345 9 Bottman47 7
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8
94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9
2327418 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9
412PP 3 Free World123 10
P4572 2 Plein Pouvoir5 9
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8
Step 1 - Eliminate horses rated 141 and higher. This is normally a race for the lower rated / weighted horses. This leaves:
2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11 10-Sep Keiran Burke100 140 157 165
F5U3P Gilbarry54 7 10-Jun Jonjo O´Neill25 137 125 144
8112/0 Salut Flo96 7 10-Jun David Pipe56 137 124 142
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8 10-Jun Alan Jones 137 148 158
732380 Mad Moose26 8 10-Apr Nigel Twiston-Davies70 135 149 163
P2332 Ackertac54 7 10-Mar Nigel Twiston-Davies70 134 109 165
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 10-Feb Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 133 149 162
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 10-Feb Charlie Mann29 Noel Fehily 133 149 166
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 10-Feb Sue Smith18 133 122 166
5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7 10-Jan Gary Moore50 132 134 170
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 10-Jan Nigel Twiston-Davies70 132 160 167
11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10 01-Sep Dr Richard Newland25 130 127 170
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8 01-Sep C A Murphy50 130 95 159
P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9 09-Dec Suzy Smith Colin Bolger 129 159 167
125743 14 Rileyev12 7 09-Dec Venetia Williams60 129 144 166
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 09-Dec Venetia Williams60 129 160 171
51318 12 Carpincho47 8 09-Nov Sarah Humphrey 128 131 166
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 09-Nov Nigel Twiston-Davies70 128 157 161
1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9 09-Nov Mark Bradstock 128 — —
2-1345 9 Bottman47 7 09-Oct Tim Vaughan50 127 134 160
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8 09-Oct Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 127 124 156
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 09-Aug Paul Henderson 125 141 158
94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9 09-Aug Nigel Twiston-Davies70 125 147 154
2327418 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11 09-Jul Graeme McPherson50 124 154 158
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9 09-Jul Venetia Williams60 124 133 163
412PP 3 Free World123 10 09-Jun Warren Greatrex100 123 132 158
P4572 2 Plein Pouvoir5 9 09-Feb Venetia Williams60 119 133 149
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 08-Oct Venetia Williams60 113 142 148
Step 2 - Eliminate horses finishing outside of the top 4 last time out (completed starts). This reduces the field to:
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8 10-Jun Alan Jones 137 148 158
P2332 Ackertac54 7 10-Mar Nigel Twiston-Davies70 134 109 165
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 10-Feb Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 133 149 162
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 10-Feb Charlie Mann29 Noel Fehily 133 149 166
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 10-Feb Sue Smith18 133 122 166
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 10-Jan Nigel Twiston-Davies70 132 160 167
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8 01-Sep C A Murphy50 130 95 159
125743 14 Rileyev12 7 09-Dec Venetia Williams60 129 144 166
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 09-Dec Venetia Williams60 129 160 171
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 09-Nov Nigel Twiston-Davies70 128 157 161
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 09-Aug Paul Henderson 125 141 158
P4572 2 Plein Pouvoir5 9 09-Feb Venetia Williams60 119 133 149
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 08-Oct Venetia Williams60 113 142 148
Step 3 - Eliminate horses not having run within the last 40 days
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 10-02 Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 133 149 162
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 10-02 Charlie Mann29 Noel Fehily 133 149 166
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 10-02 Sue Smith18 133 122 166
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 10-01 Nigel Twiston-Davies70 132 160 167
125743 14 Rileyev12 7 9-13 Venetia Williams60 129 144 166
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 9-12 Venetia Williams60 129 160 171
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 9-11 Nigel Twiston-Davies70 128 157 161
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 9-08 Paul Henderson 125 141 158
P4572 2 Plein Pouvoir5 9 9-02 Venetia Williams60 119 133 149
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 8-11 Venetia Williams60 113 142 148
Step 4 - Eliminate horses not having won a Class 3 chase or better
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 10-02 Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 133 149 162
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 10-02 Charlie Mann29 Noel Fehily 133 149 166
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 10-02 Sue Smith18 133 122 166
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 10-01 Nigel Twiston-Davies70 132 160 167
125743 14 Rileyev12 7 9-13 Venetia Williams60 129 144 166
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 9-12 Venetia Williams60 129 160 171
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 9-08 Paul Henderson 125 141 158
Step 5 - Eliminate horses with a hurdles rating< 130
Applying Step 5 would leave only Gansey, so he must be my (very tentative) ante-post selection.
Good 2m5f
8 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-9 or less
Horses officially rated 139 or less have won 7 of 8 runnings
9 of 10 winners finished in first 5 last time out (exception hadn't run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 6 times that season (exception hadn't run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 15 chases
9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 5 times over fences
9 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase that season
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 2M 2½F to 2M 5F
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a graded chase (3 exceptions having first run in a graded chase)
8 of 10 winners had a hurdles rating of 130+
10 of 10 winners had previously run at Cheltenham (4 had won, 4 had placed, 2 unplaced)
Potentially a very tough nut to crack, and due to time constraints, can only give this a 'quick and dirty' and will have a much more thorough look when sipping a few alses in the boozer in Bishops Cleeve on Wednesday night!
F6-140 Great Endeavour96 8
1446453 Tartak47 9
165-21 Giorgio Quercus54 7
541-19 Rebel Du Maquis232 7
U1231 Champion Court74 7
456951 Cannington Brook26 8
11188/ Jack The Giant706 10
13232 Hector´s Choice19 8
83134 Consigliere19 9
214712 Micheal Flips27 8
211323 Notus De La Tour46 6
61-B03 Matuhi74 9
7010F Finger Onthe Pulse96 11
13-892 Dan Breen12 7
5F94U2 Tullamore Dew26 10
8P-50 Crack Away Jack26 8
112111 Hunt Ball19 7
1-P3U0 Divers33 8
2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11
F5U3P Gilbarry54 7
8112/0 Salut Flo96 7
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8
732380 Mad Moose26 8
P2332 Ackertac54 7
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10
5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7
11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8
P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9
125743 14 Rileyev12 7
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6
51318 12 Carpincho47 8
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6
1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9
2-1345 9 Bottman47 7
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8
94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9
2327418 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9
412PP 3 Free World123 10
P4572 2 Plein Pouvoir5 9
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8
Step 1 - Eliminate horses rated 141 and higher. This is normally a race for the lower rated / weighted horses. This leaves:
2-0385 Holmwood Legend26 11 10-Sep Keiran Burke100 140 157 165
F5U3P Gilbarry54 7 10-Jun Jonjo O´Neill25 137 125 144
8112/0 Salut Flo96 7 10-Jun David Pipe56 137 124 142
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8 10-Jun Alan Jones 137 148 158
732380 Mad Moose26 8 10-Apr Nigel Twiston-Davies70 135 149 163
P2332 Ackertac54 7 10-Mar Nigel Twiston-Davies70 134 109 165
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 10-Feb Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 133 149 162
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 10-Feb Charlie Mann29 Noel Fehily 133 149 166
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 10-Feb Sue Smith18 133 122 166
5U2340 19 Vino Griego26 7 10-Jan Gary Moore50 132 134 170
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 10-Jan Nigel Twiston-Davies70 132 160 167
11PPP0 17 Schindler´s Gold61 10 01-Sep Dr Richard Newland25 130 127 170
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8 01-Sep C A Murphy50 130 95 159
P28-P 15 Aimigayle26 9 09-Dec Suzy Smith Colin Bolger 129 159 167
125743 14 Rileyev12 7 09-Dec Venetia Williams60 129 144 166
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 09-Dec Venetia Williams60 129 160 171
51318 12 Carpincho47 8 09-Nov Sarah Humphrey 128 131 166
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 09-Nov Nigel Twiston-Davies70 128 157 161
1P-P1P 10 Radetsky March15 9 09-Nov Mark Bradstock 128 — —
2-1345 9 Bottman47 7 09-Oct Tim Vaughan50 127 134 160
PF336F 8 Riguez Dancer29 8 09-Oct Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 127 124 156
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 09-Aug Paul Henderson 125 141 158
94-436 6 Pigeon Island79 9 09-Aug Nigel Twiston-Davies70 125 147 154
2327418 5 Kilcrea Asla26 11 09-Jul Graeme McPherson50 124 154 158
41332F 4 Pentiffic12 9 09-Jul Venetia Williams60 124 133 163
412PP 3 Free World123 10 09-Jun Warren Greatrex100 123 132 158
P4572 2 Plein Pouvoir5 9 09-Feb Venetia Williams60 119 133 149
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 08-Oct Venetia Williams60 113 142 148
Step 2 - Eliminate horses finishing outside of the top 4 last time out (completed starts). This reduces the field to:
3P111 Quincy Des Pictons79 8 10-Jun Alan Jones 137 148 158
P2332 Ackertac54 7 10-Mar Nigel Twiston-Davies70 134 109 165
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 10-Feb Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 133 149 162
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 10-Feb Charlie Mann29 Noel Fehily 133 149 166
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 10-Feb Sue Smith18 133 122 166
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 10-Jan Nigel Twiston-Davies70 132 160 167
25671U 16 Glam Gerry49 8 01-Sep C A Murphy50 130 95 159
125743 14 Rileyev12 7 09-Dec Venetia Williams60 129 144 166
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 09-Dec Venetia Williams60 129 160 171
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 09-Nov Nigel Twiston-Davies70 128 157 161
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 09-Aug Paul Henderson 125 141 158
P4572 2 Plein Pouvoir5 9 09-Feb Venetia Williams60 119 133 149
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 08-Oct Venetia Williams60 113 142 148
Step 3 - Eliminate horses not having run within the last 40 days
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 10-02 Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 133 149 162
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 10-02 Charlie Mann29 Noel Fehily 133 149 166
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 10-02 Sue Smith18 133 122 166
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 10-01 Nigel Twiston-Davies70 132 160 167
125743 14 Rileyev12 7 9-13 Venetia Williams60 129 144 166
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 9-12 Venetia Williams60 129 160 171
22U322 11 The Cockney Mackem22 6 9-11 Nigel Twiston-Davies70 128 157 161
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 9-08 Paul Henderson 125 141 158
P4572 2 Plein Pouvoir5 9 9-02 Venetia Williams60 119 133 149
41F233 1 Ballyoliver7 8 8-11 Venetia Williams60 113 142 148
Step 4 - Eliminate horses not having won a Class 3 chase or better
9301U 22 Charingworth30 9 10-02 Ferdy Murphy60 Lucy Alexander5 133 149 162
29P54 21 Fine Parchment12 9 10-02 Charlie Mann29 Noel Fehily 133 149 166
FP-3P4 20 Gansey19 10 10-02 Sue Smith18 133 122 166
F11P2 18 Educated Evans19 7 10-01 Nigel Twiston-Davies70 132 160 167
125743 14 Rileyev12 7 9-13 Venetia Williams60 129 144 166
311611 13 Niceonefrankie13 5x 6 9-12 Venetia Williams60 129 160 171
724303 7 Life Of A Luso19 8 9-08 Paul Henderson 125 141 158
Step 5 - Eliminate horses with a hurdles rating< 130
Applying Step 5 would leave only Gansey, so he must be my (very tentative) ante-post selection.
Have already had a small speculative dabble on Quincy Des Pictons for this too!
THU 15 MAR 2012
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140)
3m1f110y
8 of 10 winners have been aged 8 or 9
9 of 10 winners (last 7) carried 10-10 or more (after claim)
In the last 4 runnings all 16 places were filled by horses rated 126 to 140.
In the past 2 runnings all 8 places were filled by horses rated within 11lbs of the top weight.
6 of 10 winners finished 9th or worse on their last start (4 others finished 1st or 2nd)
8 of 10 winners placed on 1 or both of last 2 starts (2 exceptions trained by Martin Pipe)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or higher handicap chase on last run over fences
10 of 10 winners ran over 3M+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 8 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners (last 8) had won no more than 2 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exceptions finished in first 5 in JLT Specialty H'cap Chase at previous Festival)
The last 3 winners had been placed in a handicap hurdle in 1 of their previous 3 starts
The trends I have applied to the race are as follows, in order to get to my final shortlist of 5:
Concentrate on horses aged 8 or 9 (8 out of last 10 winners)
Eliminate horses carrying less than 10'10
Eliminate horses who have not won over 3m+
Eliminate horses who failed to finish in first 3 on one of their last 2 starts
Eliminate horses who didn't run in a class 3 or better chase over 3m+ last time out
Eliminate Irish trained horses as have a terrible record
Plus another of my own:
Eliminate horses who were pulled up last time out
This leaves the following shortlist of 5 that I will be concentrating on should they turn up on the day:
NO. HORSE AGE WGT
2112U1 Helpston19 8 11-09
FP-551 Mostly Bob74 9 11-05
1P/1-4 Summery Justice117 8 11-03
2F11F Baile Anrai26 8 11-02
15220 30 Time For Spring27 8 10-12
Slightly put off by the long absence of Summery Justice, and Time For Spring might just be a little low in the weights and may struggle to get in.
At this stage, my favoured three from the above would be:
Helpston
Mostly Bob
Baile Anrai (backed for a different race already, so kind of hope he doesn't make it here)
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140)
3m1f110y
8 of 10 winners have been aged 8 or 9
9 of 10 winners (last 7) carried 10-10 or more (after claim)
In the last 4 runnings all 16 places were filled by horses rated 126 to 140.
In the past 2 runnings all 8 places were filled by horses rated within 11lbs of the top weight.
6 of 10 winners finished 9th or worse on their last start (4 others finished 1st or 2nd)
8 of 10 winners placed on 1 or both of last 2 starts (2 exceptions trained by Martin Pipe)
10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or higher handicap chase on last run over fences
10 of 10 winners ran over 3M+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+
8 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 8 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners (last 8) had won no more than 2 handicap chases
8 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exceptions finished in first 5 in JLT Specialty H'cap Chase at previous Festival)
The last 3 winners had been placed in a handicap hurdle in 1 of their previous 3 starts
The trends I have applied to the race are as follows, in order to get to my final shortlist of 5:
Concentrate on horses aged 8 or 9 (8 out of last 10 winners)
Eliminate horses carrying less than 10'10
Eliminate horses who have not won over 3m+
Eliminate horses who failed to finish in first 3 on one of their last 2 starts
Eliminate horses who didn't run in a class 3 or better chase over 3m+ last time out
Eliminate Irish trained horses as have a terrible record
Plus another of my own:
Eliminate horses who were pulled up last time out
This leaves the following shortlist of 5 that I will be concentrating on should they turn up on the day:
NO. HORSE AGE WGT
2112U1 Helpston19 8 11-09
FP-551 Mostly Bob74 9 11-05
1P/1-4 Summery Justice117 8 11-03
2F11F Baile Anrai26 8 11-02
15220 30 Time For Spring27 8 10-12
Slightly put off by the long absence of Summery Justice, and Time For Spring might just be a little low in the weights and may struggle to get in.
At this stage, my favoured three from the above would be:
Helpston
Mostly Bob
Baile Anrai (backed for a different race already, so kind of hope he doesn't make it here)
So, where are we so far:
Tuesday
1:30 Montbazon @ 14 & Tetlami @ 16.5-18.5
2:05 Sprinter Sacre @ 2.1-2.16
2:40 Baile Anrai @ 18 & Blenheim Brook @ 28 (not confident either will be running now)
3:20 Hurricane Fly (will back on the day)
4:00 Sizing Australia @ 6 (may have saver on Scotsirish)
4:40 Quevega @ 1.66 (will be lumping on again if one or more of the above come in)
5:15 Bless The Wings @ 8.8 & Quincy Des Pictons @ 20
Wednesday
1:30 Teaforthree @ 8.4
2:05 Monksland @ 7
2:40 Join Together @ 10.5
3:20 Sizing Europe @ 2.04-2.1
4:00 no bet yet but will look at Tenor Nivenais & Batonnier if running on day
4:40 Kazlian @ 9 (and will look at Vendor on the day)
5:15 Clonbanan Lad @ 19-21 & Sir Johnson @ 20
Thursday
1:30 Shortlist stage - like Sir Des Champs, but will look on day
2:05 Poole Master @ 17.5 (looks unlikely runner)
2:40 Albertas Run @ 10.5
3:20 Big Buck's (sizeable wager on day)
4:00 No bet yet but looking at Gansey & Quincey Des Pictons
4:40 Shortlist of Helpston, Mostly Bob & Baile Anrai
Friday
1:30 Pearl Swan @ 8.2-8.6
2:05 ???
2:40 Boston Bob @ 8
3:20 ???
4:00 Barbers Shop @ 14.5 & Salsify @ 8.2
4:40 ???
5:15 ???
More work to do for Thursday and Friday.
Good luck to everyone!
Tuesday
1:30 Montbazon @ 14 & Tetlami @ 16.5-18.5
2:05 Sprinter Sacre @ 2.1-2.16
2:40 Baile Anrai @ 18 & Blenheim Brook @ 28 (not confident either will be running now)
3:20 Hurricane Fly (will back on the day)
4:00 Sizing Australia @ 6 (may have saver on Scotsirish)
4:40 Quevega @ 1.66 (will be lumping on again if one or more of the above come in)
5:15 Bless The Wings @ 8.8 & Quincy Des Pictons @ 20
Wednesday
1:30 Teaforthree @ 8.4
2:05 Monksland @ 7
2:40 Join Together @ 10.5
3:20 Sizing Europe @ 2.04-2.1
4:00 no bet yet but will look at Tenor Nivenais & Batonnier if running on day
4:40 Kazlian @ 9 (and will look at Vendor on the day)
5:15 Clonbanan Lad @ 19-21 & Sir Johnson @ 20
Thursday
1:30 Shortlist stage - like Sir Des Champs, but will look on day
2:05 Poole Master @ 17.5 (looks unlikely runner)
2:40 Albertas Run @ 10.5
3:20 Big Buck's (sizeable wager on day)
4:00 No bet yet but looking at Gansey & Quincey Des Pictons
4:40 Shortlist of Helpston, Mostly Bob & Baile Anrai
Friday
1:30 Pearl Swan @ 8.2-8.6
2:05 ???
2:40 Boston Bob @ 8
3:20 ???
4:00 Barbers Shop @ 14.5 & Salsify @ 8.2
4:40 ???
5:15 ???
More work to do for Thursday and Friday.
Good luck to everyone!
Looking forward to it now, picked up 3pm, drive down for couple of hours and stop for a pint in the Rising Sun on Cleeve Hill, to look forward to the week ahead!
Only lost a small ante-post on Blenheim Brook who was not declared for the 2:40 tomorrow (for which I have Baile Anrai who was declared thankfully).
Only lost a small ante-post on Blenheim Brook who was not declared for the 2:40 tomorrow (for which I have Baile Anrai who was declared thankfully).
Harry, unlucky mate but I'm sure you did alright. Hope you took some of the 60+ for the National
well judo yes a desperate disappointment pal but was on ew...shame because had a huge bet on sunny last year in william hill trophy and was huge on becauseicantsee this...racing is a sick game at times judo...horse was given a lovely ride as well but what can you do when the other horse has 14lbs in hand...
Just back from an exhausted four days.
Managed 7 winners in all (one less than the eight of last year) and a couple of near misses.
Day 1:
Sprinter Sacre & Quevega
Day 2:
Teaforthree
Day 3:
Riverside Theatre
Big Buck's
Day 4:
Synchronised & Salsify
Worst moment of the Festival - putting Riverside Theatre to beat Alberta's Run in an exacta, only to discover that I'd put race 4 instead of race 3 on ths lip, and ended up with So Young to beat Big Buck's.
Gutted of course.
Hope you all had some success!
Managed 7 winners in all (one less than the eight of last year) and a couple of near misses.
Day 1:
Sprinter Sacre & Quevega
Day 2:
Teaforthree
Day 3:
Riverside Theatre
Big Buck's
Day 4:
Synchronised & Salsify
Worst moment of the Festival - putting Riverside Theatre to beat Alberta's Run in an exacta, only to discover that I'd put race 4 instead of race 3 on ths lip, and ended up with So Young to beat Big Buck's.
Gutted of course.
Hope you all had some success!
Cheers Joci was exhausting and bloody cold Thursday,but all worthwhile all time and effort some of us put in.
Had some good singles ante-post Bobs Worth, Riverside Theatre, Sir Des Champs,amongst others but doubles were a shambles learn something every year.
Had some good singles ante-post Bobs Worth, Riverside Theatre, Sir Des Champs,amongst others but doubles were a shambles learn something every year.
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