Forums

Cheltenham Festival

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
JOCI Club
12 Feb 12 10:45
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 23,205 | Blogger: JOCI Club's blog
Just getting geared up for March....not long now!

Contributions from others very welcome indeed!

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 6  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 212
By:
JOCI Club
When: 12 Feb 12 13:19
TUE 13 MAR 2012               
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)   

Link to latest card:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546179&r_date=2012-03-13&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_

FORM    HORSE     
11-113     Al Ferof    
0-1321     Astracad    
1-35    Bagber    
634356    Baily Green    
26115    Blackstairmountain    
1-11F1     Bog Warrior
210-P1     Call The Police
6257-1     Cristal Bonus
2-1U21     Cue Card
16-2U5     Escort´men
323137    Foildubh
0-F222     For Non Stop
2-1F11     Kid Cassidy
12122    Kumbeshwar
11244    Lucky William
4U411F     Menorah
12232    Nearest The Pin
21-151     Pacha Du Polder
27-112     Peddlers Cross
F1-F2     Realt Mor
P-8551     Sanctuaire
33-141     Shot From The Hip
11-111     Sir Des Champs
113-11     Sprinter Sacre
12700P     Tajweed
733214    Zaynar
8111U1     Alasi
           
This is a preliminary analysis given the Game Spirit Chase has been re-scheduled for next week.

Below are most of the key factors that need to be considered when looking for the winner of the Arkle, the championship for the speedster novice chasers on Day 1 of the Festival. In last year's preview, this method narrowed down the field to three runners, Captain Chris (winner), Finian's Rainbow and Medermit. Sadly, my final selection was Medermit.

The key trends seem to revolve around age (7 year olds preferred), recent form over fences, and prior hurdles form. I have selected the 8 factors below, and assigned 1 point if  a horse satifies the trend, and zero points if the horse fails to satisfy the trend.

(1) 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5 (only included 8 year olds if they had won a grade 1 over hurdles).
(2) 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
(3) 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases
(4) 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
(5) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
(6) 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
(7) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune)
(8) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting

So, a horse satisfying all trends could earn a maximum of 8 points, whilst a horse satifying no trends would get 0 points. Here are the findings:

Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross    7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Zaynar 6
Blackstairmountain 5
For Non Stop 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4
Bog Warrior 3
Escort´men 3
Realt Mor 3
Alasi 3
Astracad 2
Call The Police    2
Nearest The Pin    2
Bagber 1
Baily Green 1
Lucky William 1
Pacha Du Polder    1
Tajweed    1
Foildubh 0

As a first elimination stage, I would have little hesitation in eliminating those horses with a score of  3 or less. This includes Bog Warrior, who has been the subject of support on this forum. I don't feel his hurdles form gives him a chance of winning this, and also given the comments from the trainer around his participation, I'm not losing any sleep over passing him by. This leaves us a much reduced field of 14 to concentrate on.

Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross    7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Zaynar 6
Blackstairmountain 5
For Non Stop 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4

More to follow, when I will hone in on what I consider to be the key trends and the other form factors, and also when we learn more, should the Game Spirit Chase get the go-ahead.
By:
Howdi
When: 12 Feb 12 14:50
get in its that time of the year when joci does his stuff better than sex imo
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 12 10:33
Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross    7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
For Non Stop 5
Blackstairmountain 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Zaynar 6
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4

The order changes slightly as Zaynar is docked a point having now run more than 5 times over fences (looks short of top class now to me), and For Non Stop gets an additional point for a well desrved Grade 1 victory at Newbury.

Sprinter Sacre very impressive in the Game Spirit. Will take some pegging back.
By:
horse9
When: 18 Feb 12 10:57
I love reading these Joci but why dock a novice for having his 6th race ? surely the more experience they gain the better ?
I don't see Zaynar's 6th chase a negative at all - the trends over the years will reflect the campaigns those horses were given, Zaynar however isn't good enough to win an Arkle for me
By:
R Carver
When: 18 Feb 12 11:02
Interesting stuff JOCI..
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 12 11:08
Think the logic is that they've 'gone to the well' too often that season. Admittedly, if a horse came out on his 6th or 7th race of the campaign and put up an impressive winning performance, then it would have to come under consideration, but Zaynar does not fall into that category. He's managed a single win, and two 4th places recently, which kind of suggests he may not be turning up at Cheltenham at his very best.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 12 11:13
Think Zaynar looked anything but a fresh horse at Newbury yesterday. Looked like he had a hard race at Ascot against handicappers prior to that. Wouldn't be surprised if he bypassed the Arkle, such was the ease with which he was beaten by Sprinter Sacre.
By:
horse9
When: 18 Feb 12 12:50
I think with Zaynar he just isn't up to this class.
Thinking back to last year Al Ferof had an above average number of outings before winning the supreme, though he seems to be a tough battler who throves on his racing....
By:
JOCI Club
When: 18 Feb 12 14:52
Right, some do thrive on racing, but I think Al Ferof was having his fifth outing of the campaign when winning at Cheltenham, one of which was a fall, so I think he was just on the limit on the stats?
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 11:12
Supreme Novices Hurdle

An initial narrowing down of the field based on the stats. Currently, I've concentrated on 9 stats as follows:

1 Won last time out (13/15)
2 Last prep run within 45 days of festival race (10/11)
3 Age 5 or 6 (8/10)
4 Have not achieved a Topspeed rating > 126 (strange one)
5 Achieved a Topspeed rating > 105
6 Achieved an RPR of 137+
7 Finished no worse that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (9/10)
8 Won at least 50% of their hurdle races (9/10)
9 Had 2-4 races this season (10/10)

The list below shows the current field ranked in order, where 1 point has been allocated for satifying the above trends (max 9 points). I realise I'll have to re-evaluate this as any of the horses run again prior to the festival, as this could affect their rankings.  I'd suggest a cut off point of 6 points (disregard horses with 5 or fewer points).

Allure Of Illusion37     9
It´s A Gimme27     9
Montbazon25     9
Darlan25     8
Galileo´s Choice27     8
Monksland65     8
Simonsig27     8
Tetlami32     8
Balder Succes52     7
Caolaneoin37     7
Cinders And Ashes52     7
Close House89     7
Colour Squadron25     7
Felix Yonger83     7
Knight Pass45     7
Lord Windermere30     7
Make Your Mark44     7
Midnight Game52     7
Ted Spread42     7
Terminal27     7
The Way We Were77     7
Vulcanite25     7
Baby Shine27     6
Cash And Go30     6
Distant Memories52     6
Divapour60     6
Ericht25     6
Formidableopponent77     6
Fourth Estate42     6
Hinterland45     6
Joxer37     6
Magnifique Etoile66     6
Oscar Nominee52     6
Pearl Swan45     6
Ranjaan54     6
Seventh Sky44     6
Shadow Catcher30     6
Simenon37     6
Simply Ned26     6
Steps To Freedom123     6
Trifolium37     6

CUT OFF POINT

Agent Archie124     5
All The Aces25     5
Captain Conan30     5
Captain Sunshine59     5
Dildar42     5
Double Ross25     5
Hazy Tom88     5
Il Fenomeno30     5
Jimbill72     5
Keys101     5
Molotof88     5
Mono Man109     5
One Term44     5
Sous Les Cieux30     5
Sportsmaster30     5
Walter De La Mare161     5
Waterunder52     5
Ballyclough90     4
Cashelgar38F     4
Catch Tammy45     4
Cotillion31     4
Cry Of Freedom31     4
Dylan Ross52     4
Fairy Rath42     4
Ingleby Spirit31     4
Judiciary68     4
Laganbank93     4
Morning Royalty47     4
Ohio Gold59     4
Our Joe Mac100     4
Persian Snow25     4
Rocky Wednesday30     4
Tanerko Emery25     4
Tiger Reigns28     4
Zerashan44     4
Alwaary42     3
Avoca Promise42     3
Blissful Moment192F     3
Brick Red171F     3
Diamond Life52     3
Engai51     3
His Excellency30     3
Kings Destiny521F     3
Monte Cavallo48     3
North Cape108     3
Shadow Eile44     3
Via Col Vento259F     3
Giordano Bruno64     2
Prospect Wells66     2
Szabo´s Destiny38     2

I will be back for a closer look once the next forfeit stage has taken place.

One thing I will try and look at then, is breaking the field down into flat bred horses vs national hunt bred horses. One of Paul Jones' interesting stats is that in recent years, since the ground has been manaufactured to be good to soft on the opening day of the festival, national hunt bred horses are having greater success than their flat bred counterparts.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Feb 12 11:24
it's a great race for the trends
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 12:58
Updated for horses running yesterday, and making the 45 day threshold:

Allure Of Illusion37     9
It´s A Gimme27     9
Montbazon25     9
Darlan25     8
Galileo´s Choice27     8
Monksland65     8
Simonsig27     8
Tetlami32     8
Balder Succes24     8
Caolaneoin37     7
Cinders And Ashes52     7
Close House89     7
Colour Squadron25     7
Felix Yonger83     7
Knight Pass45     7
Lord Windermere30     7
Make Your Mark44     7
Midnight Game52     7
Ted Spread42     7
Terminal27     7
The Way We Were77     7
Vulcanite25     7
Baby Shine27     6
Cash And Go30     6
Distant Memories52     6
Divapour60     6
Ericht25     6
Formidableopponent77     6
Fourth Estate42     6
Hinterland45     6
Joxer37     6
Magnifique Etoile66     6
Oscar Nominee52     6
Pearl Swan45     6
Ranjaan54     6
Seventh Sky44     6
Shadow Catcher30     6
Simenon37     6
Simply Ned26     6
Steps To Freedom123     6
Trifolium37     6
Captain Sunshine24     6
Hazy Tom24     6
Keys24     6
Waterunder52     6


CUT OFF POINT

Agent Archie124     5
All The Aces25     5
Captain Conan30     5
Dildar42     5
Double Ross25     5
Il Fenomeno30     5
Jimbill72     5
Molotof88     5
Mono Man109     5
One Term44     5
Sous Les Cieux30     5
Sportsmaster30     5
Walter De La Mare161     5
Ballyclough90     4
Cashelgar38F     4
Catch Tammy45     4
Cotillion31     4
Cry Of Freedom31     4
Dylan Ross52     4
Fairy Rath42     4
Ingleby Spirit31     4
Judiciary68     4
Laganbank93     4
Morning Royalty47     4
Ohio Gold59     4
Our Joe Mac100     4
Persian Snow25     4
Rocky Wednesday30     4
Tanerko Emery25     4
Tiger Reigns28     4
Zerashan44     4
Alwaary42     3
Avoca Promise42     3
Blissful Moment192F     3
Brick Red171F     3
Diamond Life52     3
Engai51     3
His Excellency30     3
Kings Destiny521F     3
Monte Cavallo48     3
North Cape108     3
Shadow Eile44     3
Via Col Vento259F     3
Giordano Bruno64     2
Prospect Wells66     2
Szabo´s Destiny38     2
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 21:31
CHAMPION HURDLE

Managed to get the winner last year. The stats suggested Binocular last year, and he was my selection, but on hearing about him being a non runner, my next best selection was Hurricane Fly who duly obliged.

Let's see what the stats say this season:

1 Preferred age 6-8
2 24 of 28 winners won last time out (consider this very important)
3 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (a fairly recent run has been very important)
4 9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (it's good to be a bit 'battle hardened' if you're going to win this race)
5 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle
6 9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (there's little substitute for experience)
7 previous Cheltenham winning form is a positive
8 a win during the current season is highly desirable

Ranking all of the current field in terms of these stats gives a ranking as follows:

Binocular    8
Celestial Halo    7
Hurricane Fly    7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Thousand Stars    7
Grandouet    6
Zaidpour    6
Clerk´s Choice    5
Final Approach    5
Olofi    5
Peddlers Cross    5
Zarkandar    5
Brampour    4
Oscars Well    4
Overturn    4
So Young    4
Starluck    4
Staying Article    4
Kalann            3
Rock On Ruby    3

I would be keen to go a stage further, and add an additional bonus point to those horses who won last time out, and another to those horses who have shown sufficient class to win a geade 1 hurdle outside of novice company.

The revised ranking is then as follows:

Binocular    10
Hurricane Fly    9
Thousand Stars    8
Celestial Halo    7
Grandouet    7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Zaidpour    7
Peddlers Cross    6
Zarkandar    6
Clerk´s Choice    5
Final Approach    5
Olofi            5
Overturn    5
So Young    5
Brampour    4
Oscars Well    4
Starluck    4
Staying Article    4
Kalann            3
Rock On Ruby    3

This gives a basic ranking based on the stats I have selected. I'm quite happy to cut the field down by half by eliminating all those horses who received a score of lower than 6, which leaves a field of as follows:

Binocular    10
Hurricane Fly    9
Thousand Stars    8
Celestial Halo    7
Grandouet    7
Mikael D´Haguenet 7
Zaidpour    7
Peddlers Cross    6
Zarkandar    6

So, who can I happily discard now.

Well, first to go is Celestial Halo. Despite being an admirable horse, most would agree that the horse now lacks the gears to win a Champion Hurdle. Brushed aside by Binocular yesterday, Celestial Halo would have suffered the same fate at the hands of Grandouet earlier in the season, had the latter not taken a tumble. Second to get the chop is Mikael D´Haguenet. Despite recapturing some of his verve this season with a couple of wins, the horse has never really reached the heights that his novice form suggested he might, and it would be a great leap of faith to suggest he could win the blue riband event this season (also readily beaten by Mourad today albeit over a longer trip). Trainer may also be having second thoughts about travelling over after today.

I thought Thousand Stars was going to make up into a really decent staying hurdler this season, but he's been campaigned over shorter trips. A very good front running performance first time out this season suggested big things were to come from this horse, but he's been relatively disappointing since then, being outpointed by Unaccompanied, then brushed aside 10 lengths by Hurricane Fly last time out. That's not Champion Hurdle winning form, and he's overlooked.

By all accounts, Peddlers Cross will be taking on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle Chase, and even if he did re-route to the Champion Hurdle for some reason, he would have had far from an ideal prep, so I'm comfortable in bypassing this horse now.

Finally, I don't believe Zaidpour possesses the necessary class to be a Champion Hurdle winner. He has an admirable win to run ratio, but to me seems like a horse that can dominate lesser opposition, but when upped in class and when push comes to shove, he's not the horses I'd want to be pinning my hopes on.

That leaves a reduced shortlist of:

Binocular    10
Hurricane Fly    9
Grandouet    7
Zarkandar    6

Further thoughts to come on this final shortlist in due course.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Feb 12 23:24
with regards to Steps To Freedom in the Supreme

Could you explain how you give him a score of 6 out of 9 please?

Because the only trend I can see that he fails on is the "ran within 45 days" trend. He has the requisite TS and RPR figures, has won 3 out of 3 hurdles, is 6 years old... I make it 8/9

care to explain?
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 23:26
Sur, let me take a look at my spreadsheet again!
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 23:37
Based on the stats I was using, Steps to Freedom failed on:

(1) last run > 45 days (still time to rectify this)

(2) Topspeed (and this is a funny one you could easily disregard), but his Topspeed is actually too good according to the stats, as 9/10 winners had not previously achieved a Topspeed rating > 126 (Steps to Freedom = 129)

(3) I also had a negative down about finishing outisde the top 3 this season, although on closer examination, the race he came fourth in was over the flat, so I would add an extra point here to give him a score of 7.

He had made the shortlist for further investigation by virtue of getting 6 marks, so this seals it further.

Thanks for querying that!!
By:
judorick
When: 19 Feb 12 23:41
I have his highest hurdles Topspeed as 122 I don't know where you get 129 from - so that makes 8 from 9 with only the 45 days not satisfied. Shame, because I really don't like the horse or the collateral form, but looks like he will have to be considered unless the 45 day rule proves enough to stop him winning
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 23:46
I'm using what must be the adjusted Topspeed figure from the racecard in the Racing Post website.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Feb 12 23:50
no you need to use the lifetime best Topspeed by calling up the lifetime form pop up window and it lists the best TS and RPR for flat, hurdles, chase etc

you might want to check your figures

please be aware that I totally appreciate your work and I do similar stuff - so I am only trying to help as much as possible to get things accurate and this is in no way a criticism

in fact I am hoping you are going to do most of the races like this and am looking forward to itGrin
By:
JOCI Club
When: 19 Feb 12 23:52
Are you sure that's what they mean when quoting the Topspeed of previous winners? They ignore the adjusted and select the unadjusted instead? If so, I'll rework to use the unadjusted figures. Thanks.
By:
judorick
When: 19 Feb 12 23:54
you better check with Paul Jones book if you have one from last year say - I would assume they are talking about the base figure not the adjusted one which depends on the weight to be carried
By:
JOCI Club
When: 20 Feb 12 23:31
judorick - I'm working on the RSA Chase at the moment, and I'm lacking a bit of information.

Would you be able to tell me which of the following horses achieved a RPR > 138 last time out?

Ace High
Allee Garde
Baile Anrai
Benbane Head
Berties Dream
Bobs Worth
Bog Warrior
Call The Police
Cannington Brook
Champion Court
Crash
Cristal Bonus
Daffern Seal
Donnas Palm
Eight Is My Number
First Lieutenant
Gift Of Dgab
Grands Crus
Harpsy Cord
Invictus
Join Together
Lambro
Last Instalment
Medical Card
Mossley
Mr Moonshine
Saint Are
Silviniaco Conti
Sir Des Champs
Soll
Son Amix
Start Me Up
Teaforthree
Up The Beat
Viking Blond
Walkon

Many thanks!
By:
judorick
When: 21 Feb 12 11:17
yes mate I can do that
By:
judorick
When: 21 Feb 12 11:38
Ace High           138
Allee Garde        136     
Baile Anrai        fell (131 previous start)
Benbane Head       PU - 141 previous chase
Berties Dream      135
Bobs Worth         157
Bog Warrior        157
Call The Police    148
Cannington Brook   150
Champion Court     155
Crash              134
Cristal Bonus      142
Daffern Seal       130
Donnas Palm        145
Eight Is My Number 109
First Lieutenant   148
Gift Of Dgab       145
Grands Crus        168                 
Harpsy Cord        115
Invictus           155
Join Together      156
Lambro             146
Last Instalment    149 (out injured I believe)
Medical Card       PU (136 before) 
Mossley            PU (143 previous start)
Mr Moonshine        94
Saint Are          UR (138 previous)
Silviniaco Conti   147 (trainer states next start Aintree)
Sir Des Champs     150
Soll               134       
Son Amix           142
Start Me Up        138
Teaforthree        PU (previous 153)
Up The Beat        147
Viking Blond       103
Walkon             143

hope this helps
By:
stevo1
When: 21 Feb 12 11:52
Top stuff guys.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 21 Feb 12 20:05
That's great, thanks a lot for that. Will continue the analysis after a bit of dinner and the footie.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 21 Feb 12 22:49
RSA Chase

These are the trends / statistics I focus on when trying to narrow down the field to a manageable shortlist:

10 of 10 (33 from 36) winners finished in the first 2 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138 or higher last time
10 of 10 winners had their last run between 24 and 55 days ago
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+
7yos have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 10 times over hurdles
10 of 10 winners had not run under flat rules
Positive if won over fences at Cheltenham

I've gone through the field and added a point to each horse when they satisfy the above criteria, and here's the initial ranking I came up with (maximum score of 10):

Bobs Worth     9
Champion Court     9
Grands Crus     9
Last Instalment     9
First Lieutenant     8
Invictus     8
Join Together     8
Lambro     8
Up The Beat     8
Allee Garde     7
Bog Warrior     7
Crash     7
Gift Of Dgab     7
Silviniaco Conti     7
Sir Des Champs     7
Ace High     6
Call The Police     6
Cannington Brook     6
Harpsy Cord     6
Medical Card     6
Mossley     6
Mr Moonshine     6
Saint Are     6
Viking Blond     6

Cut off point

Baile Anrai     5
Benbane Head     5
Donnas Palm     5
Son Amix     5
Start Me Up     5
Teaforthree     5
Walkon     5
Cristal Bonus     4
Soll     4
Berties Dream     3
Eight Is My Number     3
Daffern Seal     2

It would seem reasonable to eliminate horses achieving fewer than 6 positives.

However, I also started to look at things in a slightly different way, to see if I come up with a similar outcome. There are a few of the stas above that I like to give more importance to, as shown below:

1 Eliminate horses that have not finished either 1st or 2nd during their last prep race

All of the last 10 winners had achieved this feat, so I'm comfortable in eliminating these horses on the basis that I wouldn't be convinced of their ability to show improved form in a race that will surely provide the stiffest challenge they will have faced to date. This weeds out a fairly significant proportion of the field leaving:

3722-1     Ace High     8    Victor Dartnall
11-132     Bobs Worth     7    Nicky Henderson
1-11F1     Bog Warrior     8    A J Martin
10-P12     Call The Police 9    W P Mullins
456951    Cannington Brook 8    Colin Tizzard
U1231     Champion Court     7    Martin Keighley
6257-1     Cristal Bonus     6    Paul Nicholls
213641    Donnas Palm     8    Noel Meade
3121P2     First Lieutenant 7      M F Morris
5012B2     Gift Of Dgab     8    A J Martin
2-6111    Grands Crus     7    David Pipe
1-0321     Harpsy Cord     6    J T R Dreaper
1-1131     Invictus     6    Alan King
1P-F11     Join Together 7            Paul Nicholls
3P1111     Last Instalment 7    Philip Fenton
11-111     Sir Des Champs     6    W P Mullins
1/1-21    Son Amix     6    Thomas Cooper
66-312     Up The Beat     7    W P Mullins

Another thing I like to look for in a potential RSA Chase winner, is some assurance that they will be able to get the trip. Now I realise that some trainers may care to intentionally run their horses over shorter trips, safe in the knowledge that they will saty when stepped up, but I prefer to see hard evidence, in the form of a chase win over at least 2m 5f. Applying this statistic gives us a few more casualties, leaving a reduced field as follows (note the fancied Bog Warrior fails to make the cut here):

3722-1     Ace High 6        
11-132     Bobs Worth 9        
456951    Cannington Brook 6     
U1231     Champion Court 9        
3121P2     First Lieutenant 8       
2-6111    Grands Crus 9        
1-0321     Harpsy Cord 6        
1-1131     Invictus 8        
1P-F11     Join Together 8             
3P1111     Last Instalment 9     
11-111     Sir Des Champs 7        
1/1-21    Son Amix 5        
66-312     Up The Beat 8

In the list above, the number after the horse name shows the number of positive marks (out of 10) achieved by each horse. The news up to now suggests that Last Instalment is an almost certain non runner (which is a shame as the horse was my ante-post fancy), so that horse can be safely eliminated. The other horses I'd be keen to ditch at this stage would be:         

Ace High - maybe lacks the class, not perfect age, doesn't have Grade 1 or 2 chase form, and hasn't had benefit of recent run (might still be rectified)
Cannington Brook - doesn't have right profile, is essentially a handicapper and many others preferred
Harpsy Cord - slightly on the young side, lack of top graded race experience and low on the RPR side
Son Amix - age, lack of recent run, no great graded chase form, not right profile over hurdles

This leaves me this list to concentrate on.

Bobs Worth
Champion Court
First Lieutenant
Grands Crus
Invictus
Join Together 
Sir Des Champs
Up The Beat
 
I need to do some race watching now, but some initial observations are that:

Bobs Worth is admirable and looks pretty solid, and if he improves on his recent defeat by Invictus after his problems, then he'll need to be respected.
Champion Court has a negative in lack of recent run but a positive in a course win over fences.
First Lieutenant had a big reputation after last seasons Festival, but I expected more over fences to be honest, and I'll need to watch him again a few times to persuade myself he doesn't lack a bit of resolution.
Grand Crus has done everything right so far, lacks the recent run but has the Cheltenham chase win under his belt.
Join Together lacks recent run and doesn't tick the grade 1 or 2 placing box, but shouldn't be discounted lightly.
Sir Des Champs keeps on winning in Ireland. Age is a slight concern, but perhaps more so is that he's had runs on the flat under rules, which no winner out of the last 10 has.
Up The Beat - know very little about him, so will have to trust my eyes. Appears to lack the graded chase form.

Will be back with a verdict after studying the form, watching races etc.

If you have any thoughts / observations on the above (like telling me why Bog Warrior should be added to the shortlist), then please add a post.
By:
duffy
When: 21 Feb 12 23:23
good stuff joci

I was keen to support bobs worth after his kempton run as i think it was admirable how he got as close as he did with everything going against him but after ascot i have gone off him big time, he isn't a natural jumper and never sees a stride and is having to be rousted away from his fences, when the pace quickened he was caught out, he lloks like a welsh national horse to me.

from being a big grands crus fan i have found myself going off him the more i see, the kempton race again had me concerned, stop the race with 6 to go...guess the winning distance and then show them crossing the line and i think anyone would be surprised by the 2 1/4 lengths, i think GC won't get the extra distance and saturdays race didn't do anything for the form did it.

the one i like is sir des champs, he is yet to race over the distance but i have been very impressed with the way he has been finishing off his race over 2.5, at the festival last year he came from miles back to win going away and particularly last time things went against him late on but this horse really knuckles down and wants to win...over the extra distance i'd be hoping for stack of improvement.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 21 Feb 12 23:28
duffy - watching reruns of all the races of the leading protagonists will be invaluable over the next couple of weeks in forming final opinions, that's for sure.
By:
judorick
When: 22 Feb 12 00:53
I always like to look at the negative trends too such as for this race:

winner of the Feltham chase to run in RSA  0 of 17 managed to win

and so on, because if you can find very powerful trends that have proven hard to overcome then long term its a great edge

"raced on the flat" is another negative, can't remember the numbers but having raced on the flat is a no-no for the RSA

great stuff mate
By:
bland82
When: 22 Feb 12 02:41
Brilliant piece JOCI.

With regards to your list Davey Russell has said that First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs will be kept apart from each other and as the plan for First Lieutenant all season long has been the RSA l think we can confidently scrub Sir Des Champs from the list. A note too on Bog Warrior, he also stated that he wouldn't be coming to Cheltenham for any race. Obviously things change but unless we have a monsoon in the next few weeks l think he's highly likely to stay in his box and the obvious race for him at home is the Powers Gold Cup.

l echo what Judo said also, the first stats l look for are the negative ones to eliminate horses, if they make sense too, and for this race the Feltham stat is pretty damming as is the length of time off the track stat and also the amount of time spent over hurdles.
By:
judorick
When: 22 Feb 12 02:50
frankly I have already decided that I will lay Grands Crus if he runs. Have laid Long Run and Time For Rupert for bundles and opposed other shorties successfully so long term makes sense. I usually get a whisper about the Irish contingent (were convinced Jessies Dream was the one last year, nearly right) and based on trends will do Bobs Worth and maybe Join Together depending the stable form. Simples
By:
JOCI Club
When: 22 Feb 12 21:24
TUE 13 MAR 2012               
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)   

Link to latest card:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546179&r_date=2012-03-13&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_

FORM    HORSE     
11-113     Al Ferof   
0-1321     Astracad   
1-35    Bagber   
634356    Baily Green   
26115    Blackstairmountain   
1-11F1     Bog Warrior
210-P1     Call The Police
6257-1     Cristal Bonus
2-1U21     Cue Card
16-2U5     Escort´men
323137    Foildubh
0-F222     For Non Stop
2-1F11     Kid Cassidy
12122    Kumbeshwar
11244    Lucky William
4U411F     Menorah
12232    Nearest The Pin
21-151     Pacha Du Polder
27-112     Peddlers Cross
F1-F2     Realt Mor
P-8551     Sanctuaire
33-141     Shot From The Hip
11-111     Sir Des Champs
113-11     Sprinter Sacre
12700P     Tajweed
733214    Zaynar
8111U1     Alasi
           
This is a preliminary analysis given the Game Spirit Chase has been re-scheduled for next week.

Below are most of the key factors that need to be considered when looking for the winner of the Arkle, the championship for the speedster novice chasers on Day 1 of the Festival. In last year's preview, this method narrowed down the field to three runners, Captain Chris (winner), Finian's Rainbow and Medermit. Sadly, my final selection was Medermit.

The key trends seem to revolve around age (7 year olds preferred), recent form over fences, and prior hurdles form. I have selected the 8 factors below, and assigned 1 point if  a horse satifies the trend, and zero points if the horse fails to satisfy the trend.

(1) 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5 (only included 8 year olds if they had won a grade 1 over hurdles).
(2) 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs
(3) 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases
(4) 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
(5) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
(6) 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
(7) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune)
(8) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting

So, a horse satisfying all trends could earn a maximum of 8 points, whilst a horse satifying no trends would get 0 points. Here are the findings:

Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross    7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Zaynar 6
Blackstairmountain 5
For Non Stop 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4
Bog Warrior 3
Escort´men 3
Realt Mor 3
Alasi 3
Astracad 2
Call The Police    2
Nearest The Pin    2
Bagber 1
Baily Green 1
Lucky William 1
Pacha Du Polder    1
Tajweed    1
Foildubh 0

As a first elimination stage, I would have little hesitation in eliminating those horses with a score of  3 or less. This includes Bog Warrior, who has been the subject of support on this forum. I don't feel his hurdles form gives him a chance of winning this, and also given the comments from the trainer around his participation, I'm not losing any sleep over passing him by. This leaves us a much reduced field of 14 to concentrate on.

Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross    7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
For Non Stop 5
Blackstairmountain 5
Kumbeshwar 5
Sanctuaire 5
Zaynar 6
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
Shot From The Hip 4

More to follow, when I will hone in on what I consider to be the key trends and the other form factors, and also when we learn more, should the Game Spirit Chase get the go-ahead.

After the recent forfeit stage, the shortlisted horses remaining are listed below (lost For Non Stop, Kumbeshwar, Sanctuaire, Zaynar & Shot From The Hip).

Al Ferof 7
Menorah    7
Peddlers Cross 7
Cue Card 6
Sprinter Sacre 6
Blackstairmountain 5
Sir Des Champs 5
Cristal Bonus 4
Kid Cassidy 4
By:
rhinestone
When: 22 Feb 12 21:40
bland82:- Can I ask where you seen Davy say SDC and FL will be kept apart?
By:
Tory
When: 22 Feb 12 22:08
This is awesome, thank you very much.

Spent a bit of time this evening doing a few races based on last year's Racing Post Guide to Cheltenham Book - aim is to get a bit of ground work done before the new one arrives along with Paul Jones'.

It too picks out Bobs Worth as the clear stats winner for RSA followed by Invictus and Champion Court. Age being against Invictus and time off track for Champion Court.

Fingal Bay clear pick for Neptume. Stats gave Oscars Well last year which I backed Sad

SS and Al Feorf = 1st for Arkle

Galileo's Choice and Simonsig = 1st Supreme followed by Tetlami and Montbazon.
By:
Tory
When: 22 Feb 12 22:45
Benefficient also hits the stats for Neptune.................
By:
JOCI Club
When: 22 Feb 12 22:53
Thanks for that Tory - one of the guys who comes to Cheltenham in our group brings the Paul Jones book along and its always interesting.
By:
doublefisted
When: 22 Feb 12 23:08
rhinestone - davy said that SDC and FL would be kept apart in a preview in Tipperary last week, afaik
By:
bland82
When: 23 Feb 12 03:08
Tory how can Fingal Bay be a clear pick on stats when no winning of the Challow has gone on to win the Neptune and 13 have tried.

Although l respect his chances massively this stat has to be a worry as some very good horses have tried to overcome it and failed in the past.
Page 1 of 6  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com