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TUE 13 MAR 2012
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Link to latest card: http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546179&r_date=2012-03-13&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_ FORM HORSE 11-113 Al Ferof 0-1321 Astracad 1-35 Bagber 634356 Baily Green 26115 Blackstairmountain 1-11F1 Bog Warrior 210-P1 Call The Police 6257-1 Cristal Bonus 2-1U21 Cue Card 16-2U5 Escort´men 323137 Foildubh 0-F222 For Non Stop 2-1F11 Kid Cassidy 12122 Kumbeshwar 11244 Lucky William 4U411F Menorah 12232 Nearest The Pin 21-151 Pacha Du Polder 27-112 Peddlers Cross F1-F2 Realt Mor P-8551 Sanctuaire 33-141 Shot From The Hip 11-111 Sir Des Champs 113-11 Sprinter Sacre 12700P Tajweed 733214 Zaynar 8111U1 Alasi This is a preliminary analysis given the Game Spirit Chase has been re-scheduled for next week. Below are most of the key factors that need to be considered when looking for the winner of the Arkle, the championship for the speedster novice chasers on Day 1 of the Festival. In last year's preview, this method narrowed down the field to three runners, Captain Chris (winner), Finian's Rainbow and Medermit. Sadly, my final selection was Medermit. The key trends seem to revolve around age (7 year olds preferred), recent form over fences, and prior hurdles form. I have selected the 8 factors below, and assigned 1 point if a horse satifies the trend, and zero points if the horse fails to satisfy the trend. (1) 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5 (only included 8 year olds if they had won a grade 1 over hurdles). (2) 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs (3) 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases (4) 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases) (5) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (6) 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles (7) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune) (8) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting So, a horse satisfying all trends could earn a maximum of 8 points, whilst a horse satifying no trends would get 0 points. Here are the findings: Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 Zaynar 6 Blackstairmountain 5 For Non Stop 5 Kumbeshwar 5 Sanctuaire 5 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 Shot From The Hip 4 Bog Warrior 3 Escort´men 3 Realt Mor 3 Alasi 3 Astracad 2 Call The Police 2 Nearest The Pin 2 Bagber 1 Baily Green 1 Lucky William 1 Pacha Du Polder 1 Tajweed 1 Foildubh 0 As a first elimination stage, I would have little hesitation in eliminating those horses with a score of 3 or less. This includes Bog Warrior, who has been the subject of support on this forum. I don't feel his hurdles form gives him a chance of winning this, and also given the comments from the trainer around his participation, I'm not losing any sleep over passing him by. This leaves us a much reduced field of 14 to concentrate on. Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 Zaynar 6 Blackstairmountain 5 For Non Stop 5 Kumbeshwar 5 Sanctuaire 5 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 Shot From The Hip 4 More to follow, when I will hone in on what I consider to be the key trends and the other form factors, and also when we learn more, should the Game Spirit Chase get the go-ahead. |
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get in its that time of the year when joci does his stuff better than sex imo
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Al Ferof 7
Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 For Non Stop 5 Blackstairmountain 5 Kumbeshwar 5 Sanctuaire 5 Zaynar 6 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 Shot From The Hip 4 The order changes slightly as Zaynar is docked a point having now run more than 5 times over fences (looks short of top class now to me), and For Non Stop gets an additional point for a well desrved Grade 1 victory at Newbury. Sprinter Sacre very impressive in the Game Spirit. Will take some pegging back. |
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I love reading these Joci but why dock a novice for having his 6th race ? surely the more experience they gain the better ?
I don't see Zaynar's 6th chase a negative at all - the trends over the years will reflect the campaigns those horses were given, Zaynar however isn't good enough to win an Arkle for me |
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Interesting stuff JOCI..
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Think the logic is that they've 'gone to the well' too often that season. Admittedly, if a horse came out on his 6th or 7th race of the campaign and put up an impressive winning performance, then it would have to come under consideration, but Zaynar does not fall into that category. He's managed a single win, and two 4th places recently, which kind of suggests he may not be turning up at Cheltenham at his very best.
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Think Zaynar looked anything but a fresh horse at Newbury yesterday. Looked like he had a hard race at Ascot against handicappers prior to that. Wouldn't be surprised if he bypassed the Arkle, such was the ease with which he was beaten by Sprinter Sacre.
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I think with Zaynar he just isn't up to this class.
Thinking back to last year Al Ferof had an above average number of outings before winning the supreme, though he seems to be a tough battler who throves on his racing.... |
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Right, some do thrive on racing, but I think Al Ferof was having his fifth outing of the campaign when winning at Cheltenham, one of which was a fall, so I think he was just on the limit on the stats?
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
An initial narrowing down of the field based on the stats. Currently, I've concentrated on 9 stats as follows: 1 Won last time out (13/15) 2 Last prep run within 45 days of festival race (10/11) 3 Age 5 or 6 (8/10) 4 Have not achieved a Topspeed rating > 126 (strange one) 5 Achieved a Topspeed rating > 105 6 Achieved an RPR of 137+ 7 Finished no worse that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (9/10) 8 Won at least 50% of their hurdle races (9/10) 9 Had 2-4 races this season (10/10) The list below shows the current field ranked in order, where 1 point has been allocated for satifying the above trends (max 9 points). I realise I'll have to re-evaluate this as any of the horses run again prior to the festival, as this could affect their rankings. I'd suggest a cut off point of 6 points (disregard horses with 5 or fewer points). Allure Of Illusion37 9 It´s A Gimme27 9 Montbazon25 9 Darlan25 8 Galileo´s Choice27 8 Monksland65 8 Simonsig27 8 Tetlami32 8 Balder Succes52 7 Caolaneoin37 7 Cinders And Ashes52 7 Close House89 7 Colour Squadron25 7 Felix Yonger83 7 Knight Pass45 7 Lord Windermere30 7 Make Your Mark44 7 Midnight Game52 7 Ted Spread42 7 Terminal27 7 The Way We Were77 7 Vulcanite25 7 Baby Shine27 6 Cash And Go30 6 Distant Memories52 6 Divapour60 6 Ericht25 6 Formidableopponent77 6 Fourth Estate42 6 Hinterland45 6 Joxer37 6 Magnifique Etoile66 6 Oscar Nominee52 6 Pearl Swan45 6 Ranjaan54 6 Seventh Sky44 6 Shadow Catcher30 6 Simenon37 6 Simply Ned26 6 Steps To Freedom123 6 Trifolium37 6 CUT OFF POINT Agent Archie124 5 All The Aces25 5 Captain Conan30 5 Captain Sunshine59 5 Dildar42 5 Double Ross25 5 Hazy Tom88 5 Il Fenomeno30 5 Jimbill72 5 Keys101 5 Molotof88 5 Mono Man109 5 One Term44 5 Sous Les Cieux30 5 Sportsmaster30 5 Walter De La Mare161 5 Waterunder52 5 Ballyclough90 4 Cashelgar38F 4 Catch Tammy45 4 Cotillion31 4 Cry Of Freedom31 4 Dylan Ross52 4 Fairy Rath42 4 Ingleby Spirit31 4 Judiciary68 4 Laganbank93 4 Morning Royalty47 4 Ohio Gold59 4 Our Joe Mac100 4 Persian Snow25 4 Rocky Wednesday30 4 Tanerko Emery25 4 Tiger Reigns28 4 Zerashan44 4 Alwaary42 3 Avoca Promise42 3 Blissful Moment192F 3 Brick Red171F 3 Diamond Life52 3 Engai51 3 His Excellency30 3 Kings Destiny521F 3 Monte Cavallo48 3 North Cape108 3 Shadow Eile44 3 Via Col Vento259F 3 Giordano Bruno64 2 Prospect Wells66 2 Szabo´s Destiny38 2 I will be back for a closer look once the next forfeit stage has taken place. One thing I will try and look at then, is breaking the field down into flat bred horses vs national hunt bred horses. One of Paul Jones' interesting stats is that in recent years, since the ground has been manaufactured to be good to soft on the opening day of the festival, national hunt bred horses are having greater success than their flat bred counterparts. |
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it's a great race for the trends
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Updated for horses running yesterday, and making the 45 day threshold:
Allure Of Illusion37 9 It´s A Gimme27 9 Montbazon25 9 Darlan25 8 Galileo´s Choice27 8 Monksland65 8 Simonsig27 8 Tetlami32 8 Balder Succes24 8 Caolaneoin37 7 Cinders And Ashes52 7 Close House89 7 Colour Squadron25 7 Felix Yonger83 7 Knight Pass45 7 Lord Windermere30 7 Make Your Mark44 7 Midnight Game52 7 Ted Spread42 7 Terminal27 7 The Way We Were77 7 Vulcanite25 7 Baby Shine27 6 Cash And Go30 6 Distant Memories52 6 Divapour60 6 Ericht25 6 Formidableopponent77 6 Fourth Estate42 6 Hinterland45 6 Joxer37 6 Magnifique Etoile66 6 Oscar Nominee52 6 Pearl Swan45 6 Ranjaan54 6 Seventh Sky44 6 Shadow Catcher30 6 Simenon37 6 Simply Ned26 6 Steps To Freedom123 6 Trifolium37 6 Captain Sunshine24 6 Hazy Tom24 6 Keys24 6 Waterunder52 6 CUT OFF POINT Agent Archie124 5 All The Aces25 5 Captain Conan30 5 Dildar42 5 Double Ross25 5 Il Fenomeno30 5 Jimbill72 5 Molotof88 5 Mono Man109 5 One Term44 5 Sous Les Cieux30 5 Sportsmaster30 5 Walter De La Mare161 5 Ballyclough90 4 Cashelgar38F 4 Catch Tammy45 4 Cotillion31 4 Cry Of Freedom31 4 Dylan Ross52 4 Fairy Rath42 4 Ingleby Spirit31 4 Judiciary68 4 Laganbank93 4 Morning Royalty47 4 Ohio Gold59 4 Our Joe Mac100 4 Persian Snow25 4 Rocky Wednesday30 4 Tanerko Emery25 4 Tiger Reigns28 4 Zerashan44 4 Alwaary42 3 Avoca Promise42 3 Blissful Moment192F 3 Brick Red171F 3 Diamond Life52 3 Engai51 3 His Excellency30 3 Kings Destiny521F 3 Monte Cavallo48 3 North Cape108 3 Shadow Eile44 3 Via Col Vento259F 3 Giordano Bruno64 2 Prospect Wells66 2 Szabo´s Destiny38 2 |
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CHAMPION HURDLE
Managed to get the winner last year. The stats suggested Binocular last year, and he was my selection, but on hearing about him being a non runner, my next best selection was Hurricane Fly who duly obliged. Let's see what the stats say this season: 1 Preferred age 6-8 2 24 of 28 winners won last time out (consider this very important) 3 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days (a fairly recent run has been very important) 4 9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 5 times that season (it's good to be a bit 'battle hardened' if you're going to win this race) 5 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle 6 9 of 10 winners had run at least 10 times over hurdles (there's little substitute for experience) 7 previous Cheltenham winning form is a positive 8 a win during the current season is highly desirable Ranking all of the current field in terms of these stats gives a ranking as follows: Binocular 8 Celestial Halo 7 Hurricane Fly 7 Mikael D´Haguenet 7 Thousand Stars 7 Grandouet 6 Zaidpour 6 Clerk´s Choice 5 Final Approach 5 Olofi 5 Peddlers Cross 5 Zarkandar 5 Brampour 4 Oscars Well 4 Overturn 4 So Young 4 Starluck 4 Staying Article 4 Kalann 3 Rock On Ruby 3 I would be keen to go a stage further, and add an additional bonus point to those horses who won last time out, and another to those horses who have shown sufficient class to win a geade 1 hurdle outside of novice company. The revised ranking is then as follows: Binocular 10 Hurricane Fly 9 Thousand Stars 8 Celestial Halo 7 Grandouet 7 Mikael D´Haguenet 7 Zaidpour 7 Peddlers Cross 6 Zarkandar 6 Clerk´s Choice 5 Final Approach 5 Olofi 5 Overturn 5 So Young 5 Brampour 4 Oscars Well 4 Starluck 4 Staying Article 4 Kalann 3 Rock On Ruby 3 This gives a basic ranking based on the stats I have selected. I'm quite happy to cut the field down by half by eliminating all those horses who received a score of lower than 6, which leaves a field of as follows: Binocular 10 Hurricane Fly 9 Thousand Stars 8 Celestial Halo 7 Grandouet 7 Mikael D´Haguenet 7 Zaidpour 7 Peddlers Cross 6 Zarkandar 6 So, who can I happily discard now. Well, first to go is Celestial Halo. Despite being an admirable horse, most would agree that the horse now lacks the gears to win a Champion Hurdle. Brushed aside by Binocular yesterday, Celestial Halo would have suffered the same fate at the hands of Grandouet earlier in the season, had the latter not taken a tumble. Second to get the chop is Mikael D´Haguenet. Despite recapturing some of his verve this season with a couple of wins, the horse has never really reached the heights that his novice form suggested he might, and it would be a great leap of faith to suggest he could win the blue riband event this season (also readily beaten by Mourad today albeit over a longer trip). Trainer may also be having second thoughts about travelling over after today. I thought Thousand Stars was going to make up into a really decent staying hurdler this season, but he's been campaigned over shorter trips. A very good front running performance first time out this season suggested big things were to come from this horse, but he's been relatively disappointing since then, being outpointed by Unaccompanied, then brushed aside 10 lengths by Hurricane Fly last time out. That's not Champion Hurdle winning form, and he's overlooked. By all accounts, Peddlers Cross will be taking on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle Chase, and even if he did re-route to the Champion Hurdle for some reason, he would have had far from an ideal prep, so I'm comfortable in bypassing this horse now. Finally, I don't believe Zaidpour possesses the necessary class to be a Champion Hurdle winner. He has an admirable win to run ratio, but to me seems like a horse that can dominate lesser opposition, but when upped in class and when push comes to shove, he's not the horses I'd want to be pinning my hopes on. That leaves a reduced shortlist of: Binocular 10 Hurricane Fly 9 Grandouet 7 Zarkandar 6 Further thoughts to come on this final shortlist in due course. |
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with regards to Steps To Freedom in the Supreme
Could you explain how you give him a score of 6 out of 9 please? Because the only trend I can see that he fails on is the "ran within 45 days" trend. He has the requisite TS and RPR figures, has won 3 out of 3 hurdles, is 6 years old... I make it 8/9 care to explain? |
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Sur, let me take a look at my spreadsheet again!
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Based on the stats I was using, Steps to Freedom failed on:
(1) last run > 45 days (still time to rectify this) (2) Topspeed (and this is a funny one you could easily disregard), but his Topspeed is actually too good according to the stats, as 9/10 winners had not previously achieved a Topspeed rating > 126 (Steps to Freedom = 129) (3) I also had a negative down about finishing outisde the top 3 this season, although on closer examination, the race he came fourth in was over the flat, so I would add an extra point here to give him a score of 7. He had made the shortlist for further investigation by virtue of getting 6 marks, so this seals it further. Thanks for querying that!! |
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I have his highest hurdles Topspeed as 122 I don't know where you get 129 from - so that makes 8 from 9 with only the 45 days not satisfied. Shame, because I really don't like the horse or the collateral form, but looks like he will have to be considered unless the 45 day rule proves enough to stop him winning
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I'm using what must be the adjusted Topspeed figure from the racecard in the Racing Post website.
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no you need to use the lifetime best Topspeed by calling up the lifetime form pop up window and it lists the best TS and RPR for flat, hurdles, chase etc
you might want to check your figures please be aware that I totally appreciate your work and I do similar stuff - so I am only trying to help as much as possible to get things accurate and this is in no way a criticism in fact I am hoping you are going to do most of the races like this and am looking forward to it |
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Are you sure that's what they mean when quoting the Topspeed of previous winners? They ignore the adjusted and select the unadjusted instead? If so, I'll rework to use the unadjusted figures. Thanks.
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you better check with Paul Jones book if you have one from last year say - I would assume they are talking about the base figure not the adjusted one which depends on the weight to be carried
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judorick - I'm working on the RSA Chase at the moment, and I'm lacking a bit of information.
Would you be able to tell me which of the following horses achieved a RPR > 138 last time out? Ace High Allee Garde Baile Anrai Benbane Head Berties Dream Bobs Worth Bog Warrior Call The Police Cannington Brook Champion Court Crash Cristal Bonus Daffern Seal Donnas Palm Eight Is My Number First Lieutenant Gift Of Dgab Grands Crus Harpsy Cord Invictus Join Together Lambro Last Instalment Medical Card Mossley Mr Moonshine Saint Are Silviniaco Conti Sir Des Champs Soll Son Amix Start Me Up Teaforthree Up The Beat Viking Blond Walkon Many thanks! |
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yes mate I can do that
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Ace High 138
Allee Garde 136 Baile Anrai fell (131 previous start) Benbane Head PU - 141 previous chase Berties Dream 135 Bobs Worth 157 Bog Warrior 157 Call The Police 148 Cannington Brook 150 Champion Court 155 Crash 134 Cristal Bonus 142 Daffern Seal 130 Donnas Palm 145 Eight Is My Number 109 First Lieutenant 148 Gift Of Dgab 145 Grands Crus 168 Harpsy Cord 115 Invictus 155 Join Together 156 Lambro 146 Last Instalment 149 (out injured I believe) Medical Card PU (136 before) Mossley PU (143 previous start) Mr Moonshine 94 Saint Are UR (138 previous) Silviniaco Conti 147 (trainer states next start Aintree) Sir Des Champs 150 Soll 134 Son Amix 142 Start Me Up 138 Teaforthree PU (previous 153) Up The Beat 147 Viking Blond 103 Walkon 143 hope this helps |
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Top stuff guys.
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That's great, thanks a lot for that. Will continue the analysis after a bit of dinner and the footie.
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RSA Chase
These are the trends / statistics I focus on when trying to narrow down the field to a manageable shortlist: 10 of 10 (33 from 36) winners finished in the first 2 last time out 9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 138 or higher last time 10 of 10 winners had their last run between 24 and 55 days ago 9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+ 7yos have won 8 of the last 10 runnings of this race 9 of 10 winners (last 9) had finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase 10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 10 times over hurdles 10 of 10 winners had not run under flat rules Positive if won over fences at Cheltenham I've gone through the field and added a point to each horse when they satisfy the above criteria, and here's the initial ranking I came up with (maximum score of 10): Bobs Worth 9 Champion Court 9 Grands Crus 9 Last Instalment 9 First Lieutenant 8 Invictus 8 Join Together 8 Lambro 8 Up The Beat 8 Allee Garde 7 Bog Warrior 7 Crash 7 Gift Of Dgab 7 Silviniaco Conti 7 Sir Des Champs 7 Ace High 6 Call The Police 6 Cannington Brook 6 Harpsy Cord 6 Medical Card 6 Mossley 6 Mr Moonshine 6 Saint Are 6 Viking Blond 6 Cut off point Baile Anrai 5 Benbane Head 5 Donnas Palm 5 Son Amix 5 Start Me Up 5 Teaforthree 5 Walkon 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Soll 4 Berties Dream 3 Eight Is My Number 3 Daffern Seal 2 It would seem reasonable to eliminate horses achieving fewer than 6 positives. However, I also started to look at things in a slightly different way, to see if I come up with a similar outcome. There are a few of the stas above that I like to give more importance to, as shown below: 1 Eliminate horses that have not finished either 1st or 2nd during their last prep race All of the last 10 winners had achieved this feat, so I'm comfortable in eliminating these horses on the basis that I wouldn't be convinced of their ability to show improved form in a race that will surely provide the stiffest challenge they will have faced to date. This weeds out a fairly significant proportion of the field leaving: 3722-1 Ace High 8 Victor Dartnall 11-132 Bobs Worth 7 Nicky Henderson 1-11F1 Bog Warrior 8 A J Martin 10-P12 Call The Police 9 W P Mullins 456951 Cannington Brook 8 Colin Tizzard U1231 Champion Court 7 Martin Keighley 6257-1 Cristal Bonus 6 Paul Nicholls 213641 Donnas Palm 8 Noel Meade 3121P2 First Lieutenant 7 M F Morris 5012B2 Gift Of Dgab 8 A J Martin 2-6111 Grands Crus 7 David Pipe 1-0321 Harpsy Cord 6 J T R Dreaper 1-1131 Invictus 6 Alan King 1P-F11 Join Together 7 Paul Nicholls 3P1111 Last Instalment 7 Philip Fenton 11-111 Sir Des Champs 6 W P Mullins 1/1-21 Son Amix 6 Thomas Cooper 66-312 Up The Beat 7 W P Mullins Another thing I like to look for in a potential RSA Chase winner, is some assurance that they will be able to get the trip. Now I realise that some trainers may care to intentionally run their horses over shorter trips, safe in the knowledge that they will saty when stepped up, but I prefer to see hard evidence, in the form of a chase win over at least 2m 5f. Applying this statistic gives us a few more casualties, leaving a reduced field as follows (note the fancied Bog Warrior fails to make the cut here): 3722-1 Ace High 6 11-132 Bobs Worth 9 456951 Cannington Brook 6 U1231 Champion Court 9 3121P2 First Lieutenant 8 2-6111 Grands Crus 9 1-0321 Harpsy Cord 6 1-1131 Invictus 8 1P-F11 Join Together 8 3P1111 Last Instalment 9 11-111 Sir Des Champs 7 1/1-21 Son Amix 5 66-312 Up The Beat 8 In the list above, the number after the horse name shows the number of positive marks (out of 10) achieved by each horse. The news up to now suggests that Last Instalment is an almost certain non runner (which is a shame as the horse was my ante-post fancy), so that horse can be safely eliminated. The other horses I'd be keen to ditch at this stage would be: Ace High - maybe lacks the class, not perfect age, doesn't have Grade 1 or 2 chase form, and hasn't had benefit of recent run (might still be rectified) Cannington Brook - doesn't have right profile, is essentially a handicapper and many others preferred Harpsy Cord - slightly on the young side, lack of top graded race experience and low on the RPR side Son Amix - age, lack of recent run, no great graded chase form, not right profile over hurdles This leaves me this list to concentrate on. Bobs Worth Champion Court First Lieutenant Grands Crus Invictus Join Together Sir Des Champs Up The Beat I need to do some race watching now, but some initial observations are that: Bobs Worth is admirable and looks pretty solid, and if he improves on his recent defeat by Invictus after his problems, then he'll need to be respected. Champion Court has a negative in lack of recent run but a positive in a course win over fences. First Lieutenant had a big reputation after last seasons Festival, but I expected more over fences to be honest, and I'll need to watch him again a few times to persuade myself he doesn't lack a bit of resolution. Grand Crus has done everything right so far, lacks the recent run but has the Cheltenham chase win under his belt. Join Together lacks recent run and doesn't tick the grade 1 or 2 placing box, but shouldn't be discounted lightly. Sir Des Champs keeps on winning in Ireland. Age is a slight concern, but perhaps more so is that he's had runs on the flat under rules, which no winner out of the last 10 has. Up The Beat - know very little about him, so will have to trust my eyes. Appears to lack the graded chase form. Will be back with a verdict after studying the form, watching races etc. If you have any thoughts / observations on the above (like telling me why Bog Warrior should be added to the shortlist), then please add a post. |
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good stuff joci
I was keen to support bobs worth after his kempton run as i think it was admirable how he got as close as he did with everything going against him but after ascot i have gone off him big time, he isn't a natural jumper and never sees a stride and is having to be rousted away from his fences, when the pace quickened he was caught out, he lloks like a welsh national horse to me. from being a big grands crus fan i have found myself going off him the more i see, the kempton race again had me concerned, stop the race with 6 to go...guess the winning distance and then show them crossing the line and i think anyone would be surprised by the 2 1/4 lengths, i think GC won't get the extra distance and saturdays race didn't do anything for the form did it. the one i like is sir des champs, he is yet to race over the distance but i have been very impressed with the way he has been finishing off his race over 2.5, at the festival last year he came from miles back to win going away and particularly last time things went against him late on but this horse really knuckles down and wants to win...over the extra distance i'd be hoping for stack of improvement. |
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duffy - watching reruns of all the races of the leading protagonists will be invaluable over the next couple of weeks in forming final opinions, that's for sure.
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I always like to look at the negative trends too such as for this race:
winner of the Feltham chase to run in RSA 0 of 17 managed to win and so on, because if you can find very powerful trends that have proven hard to overcome then long term its a great edge "raced on the flat" is another negative, can't remember the numbers but having raced on the flat is a no-no for the RSA great stuff mate |
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Brilliant piece JOCI.
With regards to your list Davey Russell has said that First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs will be kept apart from each other and as the plan for First Lieutenant all season long has been the RSA l think we can confidently scrub Sir Des Champs from the list. A note too on Bog Warrior, he also stated that he wouldn't be coming to Cheltenham for any race. Obviously things change but unless we have a monsoon in the next few weeks l think he's highly likely to stay in his box and the obvious race for him at home is the Powers Gold Cup. l echo what Judo said also, the first stats l look for are the negative ones to eliminate horses, if they make sense too, and for this race the Feltham stat is pretty damming as is the length of time off the track stat and also the amount of time spent over hurdles. |
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frankly I have already decided that I will lay Grands Crus if he runs. Have laid Long Run and Time For Rupert for bundles and opposed other shorties successfully so long term makes sense. I usually get a whisper about the Irish contingent (were convinced Jessies Dream was the one last year, nearly right) and based on trends will do Bobs Worth and maybe Join Together depending the stable form. Simples
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TUE 13 MAR 2012
Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Link to latest card: http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=546179&r_date=2012-03-13&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=lc_ FORM HORSE 11-113 Al Ferof 0-1321 Astracad 1-35 Bagber 634356 Baily Green 26115 Blackstairmountain 1-11F1 Bog Warrior 210-P1 Call The Police 6257-1 Cristal Bonus 2-1U21 Cue Card 16-2U5 Escort´men 323137 Foildubh 0-F222 For Non Stop 2-1F11 Kid Cassidy 12122 Kumbeshwar 11244 Lucky William 4U411F Menorah 12232 Nearest The Pin 21-151 Pacha Du Polder 27-112 Peddlers Cross F1-F2 Realt Mor P-8551 Sanctuaire 33-141 Shot From The Hip 11-111 Sir Des Champs 113-11 Sprinter Sacre 12700P Tajweed 733214 Zaynar 8111U1 Alasi This is a preliminary analysis given the Game Spirit Chase has been re-scheduled for next week. Below are most of the key factors that need to be considered when looking for the winner of the Arkle, the championship for the speedster novice chasers on Day 1 of the Festival. In last year's preview, this method narrowed down the field to three runners, Captain Chris (winner), Finian's Rainbow and Medermit. Sadly, my final selection was Medermit. The key trends seem to revolve around age (7 year olds preferred), recent form over fences, and prior hurdles form. I have selected the 8 factors below, and assigned 1 point if a horse satifies the trend, and zero points if the horse fails to satisfy the trend. (1) 7 & 8 year olds have supplied 7 of last 10 winners, including the last 5 (only included 8 year olds if they had won a grade 1 over hurdles). (2) 9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all completed chase runs (3) 10 of 10 winners had run in 1 to 5 chases (4) 7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases) (5) 9 of 10 winners had finished in first 2 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle (6) 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles (7) 6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (2 of 4 exceptions were having first course start and other two had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph & 4th in Neptune) (8) 10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting So, a horse satisfying all trends could earn a maximum of 8 points, whilst a horse satifying no trends would get 0 points. Here are the findings: Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 Zaynar 6 Blackstairmountain 5 For Non Stop 5 Kumbeshwar 5 Sanctuaire 5 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 Shot From The Hip 4 Bog Warrior 3 Escort´men 3 Realt Mor 3 Alasi 3 Astracad 2 Call The Police 2 Nearest The Pin 2 Bagber 1 Baily Green 1 Lucky William 1 Pacha Du Polder 1 Tajweed 1 Foildubh 0 As a first elimination stage, I would have little hesitation in eliminating those horses with a score of 3 or less. This includes Bog Warrior, who has been the subject of support on this forum. I don't feel his hurdles form gives him a chance of winning this, and also given the comments from the trainer around his participation, I'm not losing any sleep over passing him by. This leaves us a much reduced field of 14 to concentrate on. Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 For Non Stop 5 Blackstairmountain 5 Kumbeshwar 5 Sanctuaire 5 Zaynar 6 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 Shot From The Hip 4 More to follow, when I will hone in on what I consider to be the key trends and the other form factors, and also when we learn more, should the Game Spirit Chase get the go-ahead. After the recent forfeit stage, the shortlisted horses remaining are listed below (lost For Non Stop, Kumbeshwar, Sanctuaire, Zaynar & Shot From The Hip). Al Ferof 7 Menorah 7 Peddlers Cross 7 Cue Card 6 Sprinter Sacre 6 Blackstairmountain 5 Sir Des Champs 5 Cristal Bonus 4 Kid Cassidy 4 |
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bland82:- Can I ask where you seen Davy say SDC and FL will be kept apart?
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This is awesome, thank you very much.
Spent a bit of time this evening doing a few races based on last year's Racing Post Guide to Cheltenham Book - aim is to get a bit of ground work done before the new one arrives along with Paul Jones'. It too picks out Bobs Worth as the clear stats winner for RSA followed by Invictus and Champion Court. Age being against Invictus and time off track for Champion Court. Fingal Bay clear pick for Neptume. Stats gave Oscars Well last year which I backed SS and Al Feorf = 1st for Arkle Galileo's Choice and Simonsig = 1st Supreme followed by Tetlami and Montbazon. |
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Benefficient also hits the stats for Neptune.................
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Thanks for that Tory - one of the guys who comes to Cheltenham in our group brings the Paul Jones book along and its always interesting.
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rhinestone - davy said that SDC and FL would be kept apart in a preview in Tipperary last week, afaik
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Tory how can Fingal Bay be a clear pick on stats when no winning of the Challow has gone on to win the Neptune and 13 have tried.
Although l respect his chances massively this stat has to be a worry as some very good horses have tried to overcome it and failed in the past. |