Sprinter Sacre can't win the Arkle...

The more you see him jump and destroy the opposition the less doubts there are about Cheltenham,imo. Even Stevie Wonder can see he finishes his races with much left in the tank that an uphill finish is hardly likely to be his undoing.

No concerns he's a bridle monkey? Maybe what we see is what we get...

Nope. None.

Emphatic! I don't know enough about him to do anything but lay him at the price...

Do people think Al Ferof is basically Noland mach 2? Both won the Supreme, arguably fortuitously staying on with the race falling apart around them, both careful slow jumpers, both look like they needed 3 miles in their first season novice chasing hence looked one paced over two miles and most importantly for the stat gurus, both are grey .

For those who see the above similarities i seem to recall Noland was slammed by Tidal Bay in the Arkle and if memory serves me correctly he might have plugged on for third at the one pace - i can't remember 100% as he was so far behind.

Peddlers Cross is priced up on his hurdling form not his chasing form and hasn't been seen since his apparent problems which is a negative, Al Ferof discussed above, Cue Card has a fair place chance but I think Menorah has more talent to offer if he puts in a clear round. I haven't bet in the race yet and won't be backing Sprinter Sacre at the price but do think he will hose up. I will be backing Menorah to place. People crab his jumping, fair enough, but at times he has jumped like a stag this season and if like Captain Chris he actually puts it all together for a round at the festival where he has won before i see him running a big race and placing. I also think Hobbs stable form will just take an upturn in time for the festival as there are gradually running slightly better. In my eyes it's essentially a 5 horse race so 3/1 to place looks fair. Well done to those on Sprinter Sacre at fancy antepost prices.

He is a bit like Noland yeah but probably with a touch more class.

Dwm, if you dont know much about a horse then you should not be laying! Unless your doing it on pure maths ..

Bit of straw clutching re Noland imo
Noland had a year off between Supreme and Arkle with injury,so comparisms are rather iffy to say the least.
AF jumping is fine,not as flamboyant as SS,but he wont be losing lengths at the fences.He should stay close enough to be there at the finish.He aint no slow boat i know that.
confident he will run a big race.

tomdeane
25 Feb 12 21:08
Honestly don't think it will matter if he is not s strong stayer. Jumping and turn of foot should see him a long way ahead of the chasers as they swing for home and am also coming round to the opinion that he probably was just weak last year and will stay fine now.

Tom,you must think hes some horse mate after 3 novice chases.
Maybe he is,but i will be very surprised if hes good enough to do what you say he will.If he does hes a wonder horse,and fair enough,but knowing how often they come along,and in a novice year,cant remember one to be honest,that will be some feat.

DWM767 quote "No concerns he's a bridle monkey?".
PMSL.... nice one.

We've seen these bridle horses get beat time and again at Cheltenham, the racing is frantic and I have to watch all races again from last year just to get this thought into my thick skull.

My two penneth, if SS had clattered the first and lost to PC in their race at Kempton then there would be overhype of PC. Vice versa - had SS not clattered the last in the Supreme there would be no question marks of him staying up the hill.

I'm in the PC camp as he is the best hurdler - concerned about a recent run as I am sure there is a stat for this..... if Menorah jumps well he would have a serious chance at 11/1 as he is clearly the second best hurdler.

Just gotta love the Arkle.

bud - I do!

And I have been won round slower than most. Up until Newbury I had been championing the 'let's take him on' brigade because I thought 5/2 was too short given the strength in depth of the others in the race.

I just can't believe how easy and how dominant he was against that lot the last day. I know you are an Al Ferof fan and fair play to you for sticking to your guns, but do you really not think he would have been destroyed in the Game Spirit like the others were? The race was over at halfway, as was the Kempton stroll.

Newbury for me was a real slap in the face. I realize I'm behind others who have been shouting this from the rooftops for way longer, but that was the moment that it all became clear to me. I don't think he is a hype job. I think he's all real. Too good a jumper, too much pace, too much class. I think he's going to dot up.

Fair enough my friend,you are certainly not on your own.
Yes i think SS would have beaten AF in the Game Spirit,although destroyed i aint sure mate.
But the Arkle is what i am concerned about,and thats where i expect AF to be at his seasons peak,and at a course hes proven at.
I dont know if he will win the race,like everyone else,but i am pretty sure thats where he will run his best race of the season.

For me, Sprinter Sacre has to prove he can run post to post around Cheltenham, Peddlers Cross has to prove he's got the ability over fences to be effective at the very top level, Al Ferof has to prove he's got the speed, Cue Card has to prove he has the ability and Menorah has to prove he can jump!

At present you can take 5/4 Sprinter Sacre, or lay him and take the field at 4/5. The field at 4/5 appeals more as they've all got something to answer on the day.

was the game spirit all that.... FO has been really well placed by mr H to win a couple of real weak grade 2,s, his high rating is from finishing 16 lengths behind SE in the QM, ISL similary placed to win a weak grade 2, when upped to the highest level he,s beaten on average 22 lengths

If, as I believe Sprinter Sacre is a bridle monkey & finds nothing when asked a question, then the form of The Game Spirit isn't worth a carrot! If, as others believe he'll kick on for pressure then he's probably 10 lengths better than his win & will be there or there abouts!

dwm767- If SS puts in a performance 10 lengths / lbs better than his Game Spirit win he certainly won't be "there or there abouts".

If SS puts in a performance 10 lengths better than the Game Spirit it's all over.

i'm with dwm.  Looking forward to laying this bridle monkey at long odds on in running.

I'm astonished at the number of people on here still crabbing SS. He didn't beat anything at Doncaster (fast time), PC ran below form at Kempton (fast time), the game Spirit was a gimme (fast time). Truth is he is the 2nd highest rated chaser in training, the best jumper in the Arkle by some measure - probably worth 10 lengths - and the horse travels like a dream.

If he runs his race, something is going to have a post a rating over 170 to beat him.

I don't think anyone's knocking what Sprinter Sacre has achieved - it's just some of us haven't got our dicks in our hand, furiously pumping away at what he's done so far! He's got big questions to answer at Cheltenham, the field will be out to beat him, he won't get the race run to suit and all in all he's well worth taking on! If backing Novice chasers on their 4th start and first true test at 5/4 is your game then crack on!

Erm.....this thread isn't about value, it's about what is most likely to win the race.

Interpretations of time differ fanatic.  Raceform he got 112 at Doncaster, 103 at Kempton, 100 at Newbury.  For perspective, Captain Chris had a 116 prior to last year's Arkle, so on the clock he is currently 8L slower than last year's winner.  Supports the alternate view that he has not achieved nearly as much as people think.

Fair enough; I don't think he'll win the race either! Menorah if he gets round, Peddlers Cross or Al Ferof if not! I'm not going to back all three, so the most sensible play for me is to just lay Sprinter Sacre!

So what do you think will win and what rating do you think he might be given if they all get round with no mishaps?

Menorah. 166?

I don't think Sprinter Sacre will run up to 161 on an undulating track so I don't imagine the winners rating will be sky high!

one look at Geraghtys face at Newbury said it all the name of the game is jumping andd SS will jump them silly.

Taking into account his run last year when he came there looking all over the winner, the fact there are 5 previous festival winners in the field  plus and any one of the top 5 in the betting could win this, 5-4 just aint value guys. I would take him on all day long. He should be, at least, 2s. That is only of course mho

wtm, got a bit of a bee in my bonnet about this now. What do you think will win and what rating do you think the offical handicapper wll allot?

How anyone can possibly put up Menorah is beyond me. And I am one of the horse's biggest fans, always have been.

But the cold, hard, truth is that he can't jump consistently. He can make a good shape at his fences but has not had one single round in four in which he hasn't made at least one very bad mistake and not been at all fluent at at least another three fences. How can he possibly jump like that and beat this lot?

Sprinter will, on average, take three lengths out of him per fence, and will land running more fluently.

Willie, I totally appreciate your position and that is the one I have been taking for most of the winter. That said, although I still wouldn't want to be on at 5/4 in this race, I don't think the price is wrong by much and fully expect this to win easily. Exacta with Cue Card is the play for me.

Interesting looking at Paul Jones' book what a dreadful record favourites have in the arkle.

That said, I'm hoping to witness the emergence of a superstar on the 13th.

some ludicrous comments been made about Sprinter here

Re: Menorah, think back to Finians Rainbow last year! Everyone was saying talented horse but can't win the Arkle because he can't jump...jumped beautifully on the day, just didn't stay the two miles well enough to get home! The pace they go at in the Arkle staying is all important!

Heard an interesting story last night; Caroline Mould (the owner of Sprinter Sacre) doesn't have the best relationship with the Henderson stable & they're sh*t scared she'll take him out the yard, as she did with Khyber Kim! Could explain all this 'second coming' nonsense Henderson & Geraghty want us to believe!

^ Think I'm the only Finian's fan on this whole forum (yes, I think he'll win the Queen Mother ), but think the two are completely chalk and cheese.

Finian's had one bad round at Warwick, with Tinkler atop, trying to teach him how to settle. For Barry beforehand he had been largely brilliant at his fences, with the odd error from over-jumping and enthusiasm. Menorah approaches every fence differently, like a horse who has never seen one before, so it frightens the life of me that he is going to be thrown at Cheltenham fences in this good a race.

I will always defend Menorah on ability terms (there's a few on here who have really put the knife in), but I just don't think he can possibly jump well enough to be involved on what we've seen from all four fence outings to date.

I've always been told by a few people who work closely with horses that there's no such thing as a bad jumper, and it's purely a confidence thing! If Menorah get's into a rhythm, pings the first few off a stride as he's proved he can do, then I truly believe he can put in a clear round and if doing so he won't be far away! People talk about Sprinter Sacre travelling, which he does fantastically well, but neither Johnson or O'Brien have had to move on Menorah yet - if you're taking him on then you're hoping he falls because if not he'll be right up there clearing the last, and on his day he can make the hill look flat as a fart!

dwm - interesting abotu Mould/Hendo! Most of the family's horses are with Twiston Davies aren't they (which would be scary for SS fans )

dwm767     26 Feb 12 19:04 
I don't think anyone's knocking what Sprinter Sacre has achieved - it's just some of us haven't got our dicks in our hand, furiously pumping away at what he's done so far!He's got big questions to answer at Cheltenham, the field will be out to beat him, he won't get the race run to suit and all in all he's well worth taking on! If backing Novice chasers on their 4th start and first true test at 5/4 is your game then crack on!

Nice one dwm,first part cracked me up

Rest of it all very true.

Hey we will see who looks the wan ker after the Arkle

sintonian     25 Feb 12 21:36 
The more you see him jump and destroy the opposition the less doubts there are about Cheltenham,imo. Even Stevie Wonder can see he finishes his races with much left in the tank that an uphill finish is hardly likely to be his undoing.

this is the point, we can see he is finishing his races with apparent more in the locker, but the point is, when/if the jockey has to bring him under proper pressure can he turn the apparent "loads left" into the real thing...all these horses that travel and then empty look like they've loads left...feck me even stevie wonder could see that harchibald had loads left turning in against hardy...but some can't go any quicker than the high cruising pace they show through the race....also, lets not pre-empt the miracle of the breathing operations success because we won't know that until he is brought under proper pressure as that's when they feel the problem .

dwm767     26 Feb 12 19:04 
I don't think anyone's knocking what Sprinter Sacre has achieved - it's just some of us haven't got our dicks in our hand, furiously pumping away at what he's done so far!He's got big questions to answer at Cheltenham, the field will be out to beat him, he won't get the race run to suit and all in all he's well worth taking on! If backing Novice chasers on their 4th start and first true test at 5/4 is your game then crack on!

buddeliea 27 Feb 12 11:29
Nice one dwm,first part cracked me up

Rest of it all very true.

Just curious lads as to why the race won't be run to suit?

My thoughts too Tom. A fast run race will suit (likewise PC and AF). I assume people think it will expose stamina / hill concerns. I do not.

the faster they go the easier he wins because he will travel at any speed while the other speed horses wont stay and the stayers will be taken off their feet which often will induce jumping errors

as they often say, the best way to get a good horse beat is to have a very slow run race and this is the only scenario that I can see SS losing the race

They haven't been successful in getting him to settle properly in his races, geraghty tried to get him to take a lead last time and the horse was not having it, so we have to acknowledge that the quicker they go, the quicker he may go in order to have his own way and this could lead to him burning himself out.

At the end of the day it is quite reasonable to speculate on what he will find late on in his races as we have witnessed a failing in the past, wind ops, maturing, stronger, fences, his impressive displays this year...none of these prove he is over the failing from last year and until he proves it under the conditions that replicate what he experienced last year, we should be sceptical.

I take the opposite view, he has shown he is at least 7lb (much more on my ratings) superior to the rest and merely needs to confirm that is the case to win and I am not sceptical in the slightest

I can't agree he doesn't settle. If a horse tears off in the Arkle he will tuck in for a bit but it really isn't going to take him long to jump to the front. The reason Barry had to take a tug at Newbury was just because he had jumped himself to near on the front after a couple of fences. If a horse tears off in front I think it will suit him down to the ground. He will have a nice lead for part of the race and the field will get strung out a bit giving him plenty of space. In all seriousness my biggest concern is something like Cue Card or Menorah falling & bringing him down.

yes getting something to give him a lead will be useful but BG will not want to be tracking CC or Menorah too closely in case one falls in front

another issue they blow themselves out too soon leaving him in front a long way from home and there is no telling what that will do

Interesting point Judo because it's not an unlikley scenario.

That's a good point would not want to see him in front too quickly tbh but I'd be surprised if Cue Card fell to pieces too quickly. I see him as the biggest danger slightly before Al Ferof.

I try to imagine everything if I can think of it

unless Tizzard does as he promises they could all be looking at each other seeing who wants to lead for the first couple of fences so for that I hope Tizzard does make it a proper gallop

Chasing is all about jumping. He jumps cleanly and quickly and gets away from his fences so fast that BG will possibly have most of them in trouble by half way. Trying to restrain a horse like him can be counter-productive so if there is not a very hot pace he should let him stride out and push on at some point coming down the hill. I dont believe the others will be able to stay with him and he certainly should not hang around waiting for them.

thing is he might have the luxury of just lobbing along whist the others are being wound up for their charge at the end of the race so the longer he can wind him up for one big burst while remaining on the bridle the more likely he is to quicken clear... and the later he does that the less likely that will be able to catch him

fascinating process trying to visualise what will happen - I keep seeing him jumping the last 5 lengths clear and just trotting up the run in with the others legless and strung out all over Prestbury

I don't think he'll get the race run to suit because he won't be able to lob along in front unchallenged like he has on all three starts.

He didn't at Newbury - he tugged his way to the front round about the corss fence which is about 6 f out.

I am hoping he will lobbing along in second or third place until the third last at least, with Cue Card blazing away as fast as he can go and PC and AF off the bridle being pushed along 10 lengths behind... then whoosh, swoops past on the bridle as CC tires, coasts down to two out without effort, pops the second last and Barry just holds him together jumping the last 5 clear from Peddlars then just run to the line under hands and heels with PC 4 to 7 lengths down the rest nowhere... that's how I visualise it going

Looking back at the newbury race again he pulls for the whole race doesn't he, i don't think that a fast pace will have him settled in behind, the horse won't have it simple as that, he doesn't drop the bridle at all...if cue card goes hell for leather, SS will go hell for leather too....it's a worry i would have thought.

Haha! Yeah alright...im sure he'll be 5 lengths clear at the last!

Like every year it'll be won by a stayer, not a speed horse! Al Ferof, Menorah, Cue Card, winner comes from those three!

Yes duffy, he really tugged for the first 3/4 mile especially. That's one of the things that made it such an impressive performance for me (i.e. he ran like that yet still won so easily). I agee it would be a concern against a championship field (Sizing Europe say), but I don't think there's anything in the arkle massively better than he faced at Newbury and he (looked like he) could have won there by half the track.

why should he not be 5 clear jumping the last? because you say he can't?

dwm - it's either won by a stayer or an out-an-out classy 2 m horse (Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, etc). Thieves (I think) has posted some very nice analysis of this.

It's the race i'm most looking forward to on the first day of the festival, i hope the 5 principals all turn up so there's no excuses and imo al ferof (who champion trainer pn thought was good enough to run in champion chase and has tried in open grade 1 company running very respectably in being beaten less than half a dozen lengths by 2 genuine g1 performers) will outstay all his rivals under a ruby master ride from behind being delivered after all the others have played their hands. culminating in comparisons to azertyuiop (fantastic champion of old).

Not me this time stront I don't think.  Are you sure it wasn't you?      

bigblockhead - I'm still hoping the weather will turn and the SIX principals all turn up

Massive overcomplication from people here (in my opinion of course).

I think Cue Card sets a good pace, Sprinter tracks him until moving on after the third last. Barry presses the button turning in, he shoots five or six clear and passes the post the same distance ahead of the chasers.

If I have one worry, and it is only a small one, it is that Barry waits too long to go for home and allows the likes of Peddlers to gain momentum and attack the hill. I must have said this a million times but am convinced Finian's Rainbow would have won the Arkle last year with more positive tactics, but Barry let the chasers get back at him before the second last and that was his undoing. Public opinion means the only real worry now for Sprinter is whether he stays strongly up the hill. I just hope it doesn't eat away at Barry's mind beforehand because if he's cantering all over them after the third last I'd much rather he went for home and built up a winning lead in case the hill eats at his stamina.

For me, the cardinal sin in racing is sitting too long on a traveller - it usually just allows those under the pump to stick closer and ultimately gain a little momentum before the finish plays itself out.

judorick - I seriously think you're underestimating the level of the opposition if you think Sprinter Sacre can take 5 lengths out of them in a stride; this isn't French Opera, I'm So Lucky & Lightening Rod he's up against here, these lads are class!

hey tom good to know someone else  has faith in finians ! was begining to think i was the only one on here whos backed it .

Fantastic comncession from PP for the doubters. Stake on anything else up to £100 refunded if SS wins.

QUOTE - Barry presses the button turning in, he shoots five or six clear and passes the post the same distance ahead of the chasers.

If the opponents have enough pace which is especially true in good Arkle races (and in this one we have two ex-champion hurdlers) it is almost impossible to slip away like you say.

May I caution SSacre backers and suggest they look at past  results for this race. I get it - visually he looks good, but haven't we seen this all before going into the festival?

These runners are novices - and that includes SSacre - there are some assumptions that he will jump very well and the others won't - I suggest they all can improve their jumping and anyone of them can put in a race ending blunder.

It all might look very obvious after the event - SS jumps the last and gets beat on the run in (ah man, we KNEW that would happen again!)or he takes 2 lengths out of them at each of the last two fences and holds on (ah man, we KNEW that would happen!).

Not interested in Paddy Powers concession; don't want my money back if he wins cos he won't! ;o)

ming you put that really well, im interested in taking arklebolt on so the PP offer looks tempting, its a win win situation and if we have the next superstar at least i get my stake back

Did i read dwm767 at 8.35 right? 

You probably did Frank. Nothing ever surprises me any more.

this wouldnt even be a topic if mr henderson had run him in a novice chase at chelts, instead of the flat tracks he,s competed on. the horse didnt get up the hill last year, his breathing was sourced as the problem, breathing op done, sorted.why have they avoided chelts since, after watching last years supreme again was his breathing really the problem??? he clattered the last yes, but seemed to go in slow motion after AP gave him a slap, looking back at his previous races it was the first slap he,d ever received, and he,s not had one since.....just an observation...

wont win imo.

hendo has doubts about the track too. as u say, surely to god youd want to get a run in to him around chelt to prove to yourself first and foremost that the horse gets up the him. he went out like a light last year so the people that say he wont get up actually have some hard evidence of him not getting up. he might bolt up it this year and win by a street and then u can say perhaps he did have a breathing prob but until he runs there again u will be guessing.

anyone saying he'll fly up the hill and it WAS his breathing last year doesnt know what they are talking about. they cant possibly know this because the horse hasnt been up the hill since. why nicky has avoided chelt until now is beyond me because if common sense prevailed, he wouldve had a run back there before the big day. maybe the prize money was bigger elsewhere? i dont know tbh but using his breathing as an excuse for last years run up the hill is not a viable one until he has ACTUALLY gone up the hill again.

imo he is a v bad even money fav. he has an engine and is a brilliant jumper but if he hits ONE fence at chelt hes done for imo, race over for him against all these previous festival winners. nichols horse jumped like a stag up until the festival and then it all  fell to pieces, granted hes not as good as SS but the assumption hes going to jump flawlessly is factored in to his price and in my expierence they nearly always never do when it comes to the big day. i dont think he'll win, i think peddlers cross will beat them all easily but we shall see about that too, he has something to prove too afer his last run but i believe the course was to blame for that and his awful jump at the first.

i do believe as soon as SS comes under pressure he will throw in the towel and even if he does go up the hill he wont enjoy it as much as the others, he IS a better flat track horse, im sure of that.

i am v strngly against him.

gl if u have a bet in the race, race of the festival for me.

I know it is not the done thing to criticise mccoy but I genuinely thought he gave the horse a very poor ride in the Supreme - too aggressive after the third last for me, had he softened his hands and relaxed (the horse was travelling) to switch the horse off he might have got home better - but he put the gun to his head and the horse folded coming to the last

watch the replay and see if you can see where I'm coming from - a more sympathetic ride would have achieved better performance for me but then I am a heretic because I don't think mccoy is that good on horses like this

I was just reading another thread and had to smile when I seen this:-

dwm767
25 Feb 12 21:43
Dylan Ross for the Supreme; travels beautifully in his races and has decent form behind some very good horses.

Not looking for an argument, just really suprised that having started this thread about Sprinter not getting up the hill, are you not concerned about Dylan Ross getting up the hill?

Someone else will know....hasn't Dylan Ross been trading at about 1.2 in-running the last 4 races (maybe not the last one?)without winning one of them, each time emptying after travelling well?

Now i'd say 90% of people would call DR a bridle horse, especially with the history of some other Noel Meade horses. Judging by the last 2-3 runs of each horse i'm just suprised you think DR will get up the hill but Sprinter Sacre won't?

.

God job he doesn't get up the hill. It really would have been embarassing otherwise.........

I think a lot were doubting him in a finish with Al Ferof,well i was anyway.
Sadly we were robbed of that.

Great performance from SS though,no doubt.

not sure we were robbed budd. Af would not have got close even without the mistake.

don't know whther you noticed but al ferof got very warm pre race budd although would of been nice to see what would of happened as he had jumped well up until then

they changed tactics with him. The mistake actually prevented him from having a hard race as it meant Ruby didn't have to ride him hard in a finish. Was being gently squeezed before he blundered, would have tired badly at the finish, mistake was a blessing in disguise.

will be good to see what happens when he eventually comes up against something good enough to give him a race

trouble is judo there isn't much in the way of top 2 milers...the world is his oyster

no way of knowing Sint,and he was going fine till Ruby asked him too early.

Anyway this should be on an AL ferof thread really,cos i do not want to take anything away from SS,he dont deserve that.

Yes Budde but it is to do with all the points SS fans have made before. AF just does not have the pace to keep going at THAT pace. They tried to force it today where everything they said before the race '' nothing will be staying on stronger than Al Ferfor'' was the complete opposite. The action they took to go with the pace today tells us they know this horse is stamina not speed. If he did not make that blunder Ruby would have been scrubbing along way before Tizard, and, eventually Geraghty.

The action of the trainer/jockey to change tactics tells us what they are thinking.

You have your opinion my friend,i will have mine,and thats that nothing was proved today as where Al Ferof would have finished- its impossible mate.

We both know our thoughts.
Lets just leave it at that,i dont want to get into more on these horses,the race has gone.SS won and won well.

Gotta think deeper than that im afraid Budde. The fact they decided to change tactics despite saying opposite beforehand is more evidence.

Anyway, thats where I will leave it! SS is bound to improve again for another year, and I hope they finish him for the season now and are not tempted by Aintree.

yeah no need to go anywhere, unless they wanna do a Viking Flagship at Punchestown! I'm sure they won't but I reckon they could.

yep,all done.

budde,Overturn boosts the form of Whisky nicely. Cracking chance if he stays, class alone should see him get the trip ?

Yeh,thats true Sint,just hope he stays.

Thats the beauty of Cheltenham,one door closes another one opens.......hopefully!!

shame they are watering Wednesday night imo. Still, it wont be much.

There wont be any excuses with the ground.
Should be a cracker!!

Ryan Air too!

yep,thats a cracker too Judo.

Great aint it lads!!

Gonna be so pi$$ed off Saturday,although will probably need a rest!!!

SS was awesome against inferior oposition i would have loved to see PC in race as i think he would have got him off the bridle and put it up to him.

Uttoxeter National on Saturday Budde.

good point,i like to have a go at that race.

@ this thread.. BTW good decision Donald you knew there was nothing wrong with him