Cheltenham Festival
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Medermit - Ryanair
Medermit - Ryanair
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Replies: 59
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interesting - ye about right in your assessment although the animal doesn't know he is just out for a run...bounce factors interest me a lot and apart from one poor lay on the dirt track by a filthy makin horse it has served me quite well...although a horse can just be out for a run he can still over exert himself more than you think he has, and then lead to an average performance next time...time will tell on the hendo horse but when the horse who is returning from a long lay off lines up in the 16 runner cavalry charge we he still fancy going through it all again...or will that first run be hurting him...nobody knows - lets hope he runs a blinder at ascot
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these horses like River Theatre and Burton Port are a bone of contention with me. I just take the position that, on balance, given how hard it is to win races, and for purely betting purposes that I will just ignore them when they are returning from injury and long lay offs. Of course, over many years of punting the occasional one will return and win but I just take it on the chin. No I stick to looking for progressive, improving runners at the peak of their powers...
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Burton Point is progressive judo, we just have to see if he can carry it on after his break! Plenty of time to reassess after he gets a run under his belt.
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Judo's got a point though - it's risky to back horses coming back from long injury breaks in championship races.
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^ That's a philosophy that has served me well in the past and I completely take your point. I am a Riverside Theatre fan but I'll wait and see what he does on his comeback before getting involved. I am warmer on him than others that have gone through the same injury/layoff absence because there seem to have been very positive noises coming out for some time (he was fine months ago but they haven't rushed him back for races like the King George). Also, touchwood, a hairline fracture should heal 100% with time if spotted early like this was, so there is every hope that it won't have put the mockers on what was a very promising career. Fingers crossed still at this stage though!
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Like I said, plenty of time to reassess after he gets a run under his belt...
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no, Burton Port WAS progressive before suffering injury
there is no telling what he will do on his comeback it's just a policy, one of many, nothing more |
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yes that is fair tom and if you are going to follow one back after injury you would sooner it be a fracture than a tendon....he will be a fascinating horse to see back on the track...lets hope he can improve or at least be as good as he was...
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Medermit has shortened across the board for the Ryan Air now 12/1 best price
don't know whether that is real money or just bookies shortening in case he runs well at Newbury nevertheless a move in favour |
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If he runs well at Newbury there must be an increased chance he'll run in the Gold Cup?
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I have backed him in the Gold Cup, the Gold Cup without the big two and the Ryan Air markets and I have taken the 14/1 for saturday - will be looking to trade out on all those prices
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Hope he runs well for you mate.
14/1 for Saturday looks much better value than the Ryanair imo. I could never trust What a Friend, and who knows what Burton Port will be like. 14/1 is a very fair price imo. Hills only 8's - you can just see fat mac going THEY KNEW!! |
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cheers! I can see Burton running somewhere else and I can't have WAF
if he lines up Merdermit will surely be shorter than 14s on Saturday and if he runs very well they might go for the Gold Cup (I have 180 matched and 90 in the w/o) as it could be less competitive than the Ryan Air |
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What a Friend interests me getting 10 lb off Long Run. I can't really see him battling past LR, but will LR want a battle 5 weeks before the Gold Cup?
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WAF deffo won't want a battle
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No, but I imagine his trainer wants Long Run to have the hardest race possible.
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*WAF's trainer (to be clear)
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Does anyone think Blazing Tempo is overpriced at 70s on here?
She clearly needs to find 7-8lb more improvement but of course gets the handy 7lb mares allowance and just seems to be on a real upward curve. Beating Noble Prince last time was a very sound effort, and while I think he'll be better over further, I think there is every reason to believe the extra trip would suit this one too. I think NP is way too short but even allowing for that, he is one that should have a good chance in the race and as such, the discrepancy looks wrong to me. She won a Galway Plate on good ground (and basically this trip), beat the ante-post fav last time, will be on a four-timer, and might well be Mullins' only runner in the race. He produced J'Y Vole to close in this a couple of years back, too, so she seems worth a few pennies to my eye. |
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Struggling to find a reason why Blazing Tempo is 70's when Noble Prince is 7s. But maybe im missing something
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thought mullins said she might not come over she had been on the go for a long time
tho nothing is gospel with this man |