Cheltenham Festival
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I was rather surprised by Medermit's price being around 18's for so long considering for me the ones at the top of the market currently are not that special. His Cheltenham form impressive and general attitude and strike rate ticks the bill for me. Am I the only one thinking he's got a very good chance this year?
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my cheltenham nap!!!!
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yep,fair chance.
Got him and Albertas ante post. |
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already backed him for ryan air
will back him at newbury if he runs 8 yo and just about ready to show his full potential |
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Well as much as I respect him after a good weight carrying performance in the spinal research...
Really think he can't win...seems to run in snatches and hit flat spots and also seems to whack one at some point...have really studied him hard as thought he was a big price myself but he just isn't straight forward and seems to be just below a grade 1 winner...he may run on into a place but his overall profile is that of a loser in this sort of grade... apologies and good luck with your bets lads... |
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he has a really progressive profile and the Spinal form is red hot. At 8 yo he should be primed and he could run some big numbers in his next 3 starts. One to follow
much better to try and work out what runners might do rather than base all decisions on past events - I think the horse has come to himself and will do much better from now on |
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I'm with Harry on this one.
Place potential maybe but can't have him as the winner. Nearly always falls short at the top level |
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Will be very interesting to see how he does over 3 m against some good horses if he runs in the Denman at Newbury on Sat.
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its his first season out of novices,he could well be still inmproving,his last run suggests he is,silly to dismiss him imo.
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that spinal research form is red hot and represents his strongest effort - RPR 166 which is not far short of the required numbers and he is set to improve again and is ready to join the current Grade 1 crop
mark miwordz |
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He has won a Grade 1 over 2 1/2 miles of course.
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yes but I mean the open group of established grade 1 horses
seriously if you haven't looked at the collateral form surrounding the Spinal Research you need to - one of the strongest handicap races for some time and could provide more than 1 festival winner. Hot form also backed up by high ratings |
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I think progressive horses like Rubi Light and Kauto Stone will be tough nuts to crack
Medermit maybe open to improvement but was firmly put in his place by Master minded and somersby this year, so he has to improve past somersby for starters. He was more than likely to get beat by captain chris at exeter. He's also never won at cheltenham over hurdles or fences. Went close in the supreme but is none from seven |
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Very interesting one, this.
Respect what you say judo and other fans, but I do agree with Harry and wellchief. He's one of those that always seems to be doing his best work late on and running very solid races without suggesting he has the tactical speed or class to win a really big one. This looks a good renewal, too, with plenty of very smart horses involved. I can just see him plugging on for a place but never really threatening to win. For one thing, I'm not sure why he should reverse Ascot form with Somersby, and he would be one of three or four that I would see as potential winners. Of course he may well just be improving as you say, and while that form does look very solid, he could also be one of these horses that goes well in handicaps. Poquelin has put up better weight carrying performances over course and distance but twice come up short in arguably weaker renewals. |
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Don't get me wrong lads I don't dislike the horse at all...and don't mean to be brutal...
have tried my hardest to try and find reasons to back him at the generous price and still feel he can go well as his form certainly entitles him to...but the video form doesn't look like his form in the form book...he hits flat spots and makes mistakes a crucial times in his races...yes he is a mid 160's horse but just feel his runs at cheltenham just leaves him a bit short of the grade...his rating doesn't say this but just my own opinion This is an open race and agree he is improving and may prove to be a genuine grade 1 horse but he seems just short of a genuine grade 1 horse at this time...I know he has won a grade 1 at sandown... You wouldn't want to know what I fancy and would put my write up to shame but just an opinion and certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing him to place... this is an awful race to get involved in punting wise with a very big field likely... listen he is a 16-1 shot and you shouldn't criticize anyone that puts one up at such a price but have put a fair bit of time into this rechid race and this is the opinion I have of medermit...he may win but thats racing and will be gutted as was going to throw a few quid at him...but I would be throwing money everywhere if I carried on like that... |
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Rubi Light did all his progression last season - his form has plateaued since running 3rd in the Ryan Air where he recorded an RPR of 166. In 3 subsequent races he has done 164, 167 (on heavy) and 162 (3 miles too far). You could argue that he is capable of elevating those figures again and maybe hitting 170+ - I personally don't think he will
Compare that with Medermit's progression in 3 runs this year:RPR 158, 162, 166 Topspeed 136, 140, 164 mark my words, that 164 topspeed tells me he made a step change in performance and he is really ready to run some massive figures in his next few starts  |
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Well its a fairly open race,and i reckon Medermit is one of a few that could win the race,and at the prices hes worth a shout.
If hes still improving we have no way of knowing what level he will be at come March. |
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That's very possible judo, but I'd also say it's perfectly possible that Medermit has now hit the limit of his progression at 166/164 (RPR/Topspeed). Not really sure why he should suddenly improve again when he has been around the block more than most.
Agree with Harry on his reasoning too. A formbook approach gives him a very solid chance and he is probably overpriced, but video analysis is more telling in my view. He does tend to hit flat spots, he can miss a fence out etc. If he does this against the likes of Rubi Light, Somersby, Albertas Run, Riverside Theatre, Noble Prince, Great Endeavour even, I can't believe that at least one of them will not be tanking and jumping well enough to get away from him. Best of luck though - 16-18/1 shots with solid chances are what makes the Festival such a great betting medium, |
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We'll have to agree to disagree Judo.
Can't think of a more progressive non novice than Rubi Light in training, but he's a third of the price of Medermit. We'll have to see what happens on the day. I wouldn't back Medermit, but at he same time I wouldn't lay him at big prices either |
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they might yet step him up in trip and that could be what he needs - if he runs in the Aon that will make their minds up or they might stick with the Ryan Air and then go for the 3 miler at Aintree
I'm gonna be backing him wherever he goes because once he starts winning these races the value will be gone - if my judgement is correct (that he is about to raise his level significantly) then he is going to be over priced until the market comes to the same realisation of course it could be wrong entirely and he won't win anything - but if you are backing 16/1 shots you are going to have losers regularly anyway |
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I have also backed Great Endeavour but am worried about his jumping more than Medermit - he made a last fence blunder in the Paddy Power which did not cost him the race but he made a similar error 7 from home in the Spinal Research which totally wrecked his race (jumped perfectly in the Hennessey though)
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Rubi Light was in effect only a novice when he was 3rd beaten 3L last year. If the going is good or on the soft side of good I reckon he will play a very big part in this race. He demolished Sizing Europe on his first run this year over 2m 4f.
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judo slightly disagree about rubi light...
don't think he has stopped improving yet but do feel he is a top class 2 1/2 mile horse with soft in the going description...he is the most worthy horse at the top of the market and if he gets his ground for me he is a 3-1 chance...he deserves the utmost respect for me, but doubt very much he will get his preferred ground but will still be astounded if he doesn't run in the places...he is the best horse in this race imo haven't backed it mind as he is ground dependent... |
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True Arkle - that looks like a seriously good piece of form now.
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demolished is a big shout
he got an RPR of 164 for the race you are talking about which is less than Medermit got in the Spinal Research (166) look at the numbers. Rubi Light on a plateau - not saying he can't win but there is not much improvement to come, especially on cheltenham going, in my opinion we will see |
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Ratings only go so far for me. I would be very surprised if Rubi Light is not a better horse than Medermit but I've been wrong plenty of times before so we'll all have to wait and see.
Am personally very interested in seeing Riverside Theatre in his comeback run. I think he could well be the best horse in the race if able to resume on an upward curve. |
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I've no real idea what's going to win the Ryaniar. It looks ultracompetetive to me, the race of the Festival. There are 19 horses within 10 lbs of top rated on RPR. As there seem to be a lot of candidates, it strikes me as a race to back some decent priced horses. Some serious players also have uncertain fitness status - Albertas, Kalahari, Riverside. May well be one to play after the final declarations!
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Do you think this is riverside theatre's track tom??? not for me...flat track bully???
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agree on that stront...ultra competitive...think it is a race to play in running because at this rate I can see a 20 runner stampede...and a lot with legitimate chances as well...
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Very good question Harry - he looked all at sea in the Arkle but I think people might have jumped to conclusions on that score, in the same way that people did with Long Run prior to his Gold Cup win.
For me, Riverside Theatre has improved massively since then and although all his form is on flat tracks there is nothing in his running style (sound jumper, strong traveller) to suggest he wouldn't act on an undulating track. |
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A great race. Personally I favour the English horses to the Irish at the prices. I would count Somersby and Kauto Stone if he runs the most likely winners as they are not that far of top class over 2m and should be at least as good over this trip. I also think Medermit has a shout particularly 4/1 to be placed. As mentioned above the Spinal Research form looks very strong and I think the best EW double on offer at the minute is for Medermit and Roodoodooville (confirmed runner in Bryne Plate) to frank it
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Fair play - I suppose we don't know enough just yet categorically...although he seemed to be a very good horse round kempton... but if he did run would sooner see him go straight there as don't like the bounce factor and he would be case in question on that score although surely he would of been out by now if they were going to prep him...
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if you doubt the strength of the Spinal Research Race then check the subsequent performances of Calgary Bay, I'msingingtheblues and Tatenen who were all beaten 11 lengths and more by Medermit getting weight.
As I said originally, the form is red hot AND is backed up by huge ratings - I will also be backing Roudoudou Ville and Quantitativeeasing who were 3rd and 1st in that race |
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It looks like you need some good 3 mile form to win the Ryanair, or at least look more like a 3 miler than a 2 miler.
Taranis, Our Vic, Imperial Commander and Albertas Run are all 2m4 to 3m runners, as opposed to 2m to 2m4f runners. Of this years runners I'd say Rubi Light, Great Endevour, Albertas Run and possibly Riverside Theatre / Somersby (still not sure about their 3m form though. I really liked Noble Prince before his Blazing Tempo run, and Gauvain but he is very hit and miss. At the prices it has to be Rubi Light at the moment. I've said on a different thread that I think Riverside Theatre is the best horse in the race (backed him for this year's Gold Cup at 300/1 months ago). However, lots of question marks over RT currently. Won't be there on the Thursday, so no real pressure to have a bet. I'll see how much I'm down after the first two days to see if I have a bet in this. |
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^
 Sounds like the words of a seasoned Festival goer - "see how much I'm down". Never ceases to amaze how we can all have the races wrapped up by Day One only to be eating beans on toast and scratching around for a cheap Lucky 15 to have an interest by Friday afternoon!My hope for Riverside Theatre is he runs in the Ascot Chase and goes ok without having a hard race. Shouldn't really bounce as long as they don't muller him and very much doubt they will having brought him back with great patience. Of course a lot of this hinges on the going, especially with so many good horses in with solid chances. If it came up good/quickish, a fit Albertas would be a huge player again, while Noble Prince's chance would be massively boosted too. |
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I reckon the pace will be fairly hectic in this race and dodgy jumpers will be found out.
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good post by the way well chief...
depends what your view is on the bounce factor tom??..agree totally on your other points... yes defo sounds like the proper festival goer and fair play to him, we all are me thinks...have to say I'm trying to be very selective this year without laying out thousands on ante-post bets only for my selection to be not the one I thought he was 3 months before...but it means more to go to war with, come the week and a clearer non biased mind... lets hope it works  |
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slight lie there - as haven't been to the track since the moscow romped up the hill in the his first queen mother romp and the hardy also won - still can't believe corals were 9-1 the night before on the hardy...a very good year...
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Am doing the same Harry - this year I've been sparing with my bets. Am hoping to have a few trades in place for free bets while doing most of my actual outright betting on the days. Learned my lesson last year in terms of value - more often than not I could get serious value on the day of race by one way or another.
The bounce factor is something I have always been highly cautious about taking at face value. To me, it only ever makes sense if a horse takes too much out if itself by running either a personal best or by having a very gruelling run after a long time off the track for some reason. Naturally that would be a concern given RT's absence, but I just can't see Hendo having him hard fit for that race when the Ryanair has been the long-term aim. And by following that thought, I can't see him having too hard a race at all. |
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Well we will see about Rubi Light, Wellchief
he is far too going dependent for me and on typical festival going will just be one of many "with a chance" listen I know what it is like when you fall in love with a horse and can't see it losing which is why discussing with others with different views is useful - it helps keep it all in perspective |